Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David
Week 2 Recap
After watching the totals go 8-8 in the opening week of the season, the ‘over’ came back with a 9-7 mark in Week 2. What’s unusual about the 16 games played last week is that all of the results were pretty clear after the first 30 minutes. Almost every game that went ‘under’ in the first half also went ‘under’ in the game and vice versa with the nine ‘over’ tickets. The only game out of the 16 that didn’t follow this was the Seattle-San Francisco matchup, which saw 23 posted in the first half and just 10 in the final 30 minutes. The combined 33 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 39 ½.
Nifty Fifty
It only took two games but the oddsmakers have quickly adjusted to the Saints and their juggernaut of an offense. New Orleans routed Philadelphia 48-22 last Sunday and quarterback Drew Brees looked unstoppable, completing 25-of-34 passes for 311 yards and three scores. The offense put up points on seven of their 11 possessions and they only had to punt three times. And, Brees was intercepted in Eagles’ territory as well.
The attack is averaging a league-best 468 YPG and it’s not all Brees and the passing attack. The ground game has posted an average of 145 in the first two contests, which is ranked eighth in the league. Their leading rusher, Mike Bell (229 yards), has been listed as ‘out’ for this week but the unit does get running back Pierre Thomas back in the lineup.
New Orleans’ defense has given up 24.5 PPG and 347 YPG in its two victories, which is nothing to boast about but the team has recorded six interceptions, which is tied for the most in the league.
In Week 3, the Saints will play their second straight road game when they travel to Buffalo. The Bills have also seen the ‘over’ cash in each of their first two games. The opening total came out at 52 and jumped up to 53. Keep an eye on the WEATHER for this one, with some rain storms expected for Sunday.
The Bills are a tough team to read right now, since the defense has given up 397 YPG in the first two battles and the offense was helped with a defensive touchdown in each game. Trent Edwards (21-of-31, 230 yards) looked better in Buffalo’s 33-20 win last Sunday against Tampa Bay but four short field goals makes you blame the signal caller for not converting when it matters.
30-Something
In Week 2, four totals had numbers listed in the thirties and all four of the games went ‘under’ the total, rather easily too. This Sunday, we have six games that are listed at 38 ½ or less. Let’s take a closer look in order of rotation.
Titans at Jets (37): I don’t think many people predicted the Jets’ defense to not allow any touchdowns in their first two games against Houston and New England. New York is playing with confidence and faces a Tennessee that put up 10 points in Week 1 but 31 last week. The Jets’ offense has been vanilla with their rookie QB, which might make you lean toward the ‘under’ here.
Browns at Ravens (38.5): Baltimore has posted 34 and 31 points in its first two weeks and they’ve given up 24 and 26. Then why is the number less than 40 in this spot? All signs point to a Browns’ offense (234 YPG, 13 PPG) that lacks any explosion. If Cleveland (+13.5) has any shot of winning this game, head coach Eric Mangini will need to control the clock, which seems impossible considering the offense is converting a league-low 23.1% on third downs this year.
Redskins at Lions (38.5): I’ve said many times that I believe Washington’s skill positions are better than most, which makes me believe that QB Jason Campbell isn’t the answer and neither is head coach Jim Zorn. Last year, the Redskins beat the Lions 25-17 at Ford Field and the offense hasn’t come close to that number since then. Detroit’s defense is still suspect but the offense has no identity at all. It seems like the Lions want to pound the ball and often handcuff the aerial attack of Stafford and Williams. The game-changing weapons are evident on both teams but the gameplans could hinder those explosions – again.
Bears at Seahawks (37): The Windy City’s addition of QB Jay Cutler hasn’t provided dividends yet, with the Bears posting 15 and 17 points in their first two contests. Chicago's running game has been obsolete, which has put even more pressure on Cutler. Fortunately, the defense has been good despite major injuries. The Seahawks’ Matt Hasselbeck (ribs) was injured last week and his status is up in the air. Seneca Wallace isn’t on his level, but he’s good enough to move the chains every now and then. These two teams don’t meet annually, but the last three encounters have gone ‘over’ the number.
Steelers at Bengals (37): The Super Bowl champs have looked flat in their first two games, especially on offense. The missing ground game (70.5 YPG) hasn’t stopped QB Ben Roethlisberger (71.8%, 584 yards) from putting up big numbers. However, he’s been intercepted three times and sacked six times. Cincinnati could easily be 2-0 and its defense looked great last week. The unit leads the league with nine sacks and has done well against the run. The ‘over’ went 2-0 in the two games between these two last year. It should be noted that the Steelers have scored 20-plus in the last nine meetings against the Bengals. If you could catch Pitt’s team total at 20 or less, the 'over' might be a good look.
Broncos at Raiders (35.5): Is the Denver defense (253 YPG, 6.5 PPG) that good or did the schedule makers help them out early by starting the year against the Bengals and Browns? The Broncos get a little more help this weekend when they face Oakland and the JaMarcus Russell-led offense. The Raiders can’t do much on offense except run the football and their defense is pretty sound. The ‘over/under’ has gone 4-4 in the last eight battles. The number is low for a reason folks!
Handicapper Advice – Paul Bovi
One of the most respected total handicappers on VegasInsider.com is Paul Bovi, who spoke about the subject in August at our Football Handicapping Seminar. Listen Here!
Paul provided his quick thoughts on the first two weeks below.
# The Saints are poised to put up "Greatest Show on Turf" like offensive numbers as they have multiple weapons to support Drew Brees. The total tops the 50-point plateau this week, and that might be the standard for a while. Key games against the Jets and Giants will be a better barometer for this attack in the next two weeks.
# The Jets and 49ers will see their numbers adjusted to the low side given their outstanding defensive play in the first two weeks.
# Oakland takes on the Broncos at home in what is the lowest number on the board, largely due to the poor showing by JaMarcus Russell.
# The Colts performed very efficiently on offense against the sad sack Dolphins last Monday after looking like anything but a well oiled machine in their opening win over the Jags. I’m still a little skeptical of the Colts’ offense given their lack of depth at the WR position and their lackluster running game.
Monday Night Football
In the 2008 season, the ‘over’ went 13-3-1 on Monday Night Football. Nothing has changed this year, with the ‘over’ starting off the season 3-0 but you could make a case that all three of the games could’ve went ‘under’ the number.
Last week, the Colts beat the Dolphins 27-23 and the combined 50 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 41 points. Yet, the two teams put up 24 points in the fourth quarter, which was the third straight MNF game that saw 20-plus points post in the final 15 minutes.
Dallas and Carolina will try to keep the ‘over’ streak going in Week 3. The Cowboys and Panthers have both seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their first two games and the public is expecting a 3-0 mark to be had. The line has already jumped from 44 to 47 according to bookmaker Randy Scott at betED.com.
Fearless Predictions
It’s a long season folks, 17 weeks to be exact. Even though I went 0-2 last week and the three-team teaser wouldn’t have cashed with 20 points, I’m still confident. As always – press, pass or fade me!
Best Over – Packers/Rams (41)
I’m sure this pick will get a few laughs but can the Rams play any worse? Seven points in two games is embarrassing but that has to improve at home, right? We’re expecting coach Spags to loosen up a little bit and take some shots, which we hope leads to points. Plus, the Packers’ offense hasn’t played well at all and this could be the week they come out firing. Even though Green Bay has been inconsistent, they still put up 24 and 21 points, with the help of its defense. I would recommend a team total wager on the Packers 'over' at 23.5 or less as well.
Best Under – Dolphins/Chargers (44)
San Diego’s defense hasn’t been sharp in the first two weeks, especially against the run. Since Miami is on a short week after playing on MNF and traveling out West, I would expect the focus to be on the defensive side of the ball against the Chargers. Miami has proven that they can control the clock, just a matter of stopping big plays on defense. The last eight meetings between these non-divisional teams have gone ‘under’ the total and we expect another one to hit on Sunday.
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Green Bay-St. Louis Over 32
Dallas-Carolina Over 38
Miami-San Diego Under 53
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