Total Trends to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
When the NFL season approaches its midway point, we always like to review team "totals" trends. By this point in the season, we usually have an idea if trends from past have endured into the current campaign, while allowing current-year patterns to develop. Some teams have more illuminating trends than others, but almost every team has a "totals" angle or two worth review. Following is a team-by-team rundown of "totals" trends to watch.
Arizona... Cards have mostly been an "over" team since 2004 (66-42 "over" that span). The current Cards, even minus QB Kurt Warner, are trending "over" again (5-2 TY), and the Big Red especially have been shaded to the "over" when home at U of P Stadium (27-12 last 39).
Atlanta... On the fast and dry track of the Georgia Dome, Falcons have mostly been an "over" team at home the past several seasons, with the notable exception of 2009, when Atlanta went "under" 2-6 as host (and also closed the season with six straight "unders" overall). Falcs "over" 2-1 in early going this season at home, and excluding ‘09, they’re "over" 23-12 their last 35 as host.
Baltimore... Ravens haven’t been the sort of "under" play their reputation suggests, especially this season at home where they’re "over" 3-0 thus far. They are 2-1 "under" away this season and now 9-5 "under" their last 14 on road, although since HC John Harbaugh arrived in ‘08, they’re evenly split 12-12 between "overs" and "unders" away.
Buffalo... Bills had been flashing some "over" tendencies after recent switch at QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick, going "over" four straight prior to last week’s "under" vs. Chiefs.
Carolina... Pronounced "under" trends have continued in Charlotte (3-1 "under" TY at home, 32-15 last 47 as host since late 2004). Panthers also "under" 16-8 last 24 overall.
Chicago... Interestingly, since QB Jay Cutler arrived LY, Bears have been mostly "under" (15-8 that span, 14-8 in games Cutler starts).
Cincinnati... Bengals continue to trend "under" at home, now 2-1 this season and 21-9 last 30 at Paul Brown Stadium since late ‘06.
Cleveland... Browns have had 12 of their last 15 "totals" posted at less than 40, which partly explains mild "over" results lately (8-6 last 14, including last four on road). Note Cleveland was "under" 14 of the last 21 in Romeo Crennel’s regime that ended after 2008.
Dallas...Cowboys have been a back-and-forth "totals" team under HC Wade Phillips; their latest trend is "over" last 4 overall and last 5 at home.
Denver... Despite barely missing the "over" last week in London vs. the 49ers, Broncos are "over" 12 of their last 14 since late last season, and "over" last 7 as visitor.
Detroit... The now-lively Lions are "over" 8 of their last 11 since late ‘09 and "over" their last five at Ford Field.
Green Bay... Note the recent departure from Pack’s "over" form, which was 32-19 from 2007-09; in 2010, Green Bay is "under" 6-2 TY after last week’s yawner vs. the Jets.
Houston... Although Texans were "under" 10-6 LY, they’ve mostly been "over" the past few years ("over" 36-24 in the 60 games prior to ‘09, and "over" 4-2 TY prior to facing Colts last Monday).
Indianapolis... Nothing too consistent lately save "overs" in 6 of last 7 as visitor.
Jacksonville... Jags trending "over" lately (7-2 last 9 since late ‘09).
Kansas City... Mostly "over" at Arrowhead (18-9 last 27, though only 2-2 this season).
Miami... Dolphins has kept form lately, continuing recent "over" trends at home (now 10-1 last 11) and "under" on road (13-4 last 17).
Minnesota... With Viking "totals" usually posted in the mid 40s, no surprise that Minnesota is "under" 7-2 its last 9 at home.
New England... Bill Belichick entered 2010 exactly split between "overs" and "unders" since 2005 (44-44). Recent highlighted trend has been 8-3 "under" last 11 away.
New Orleans... With "totals" usually in mid-to-high 40s, Saints not "over" as much as most would imagine lately (they’re "under" 14-12 since last season). Also "under" 6 of last 7 vs. this week’s foe Carolina.
New York Giants... One of the most-pronounced "over" trenders lately, G-Men "over" 15-7 since 2009. Note "overs" last 7 vs. NFC East foes.
New York Jets... Recent string of five straight "overs" ended in last week’s defensive battle vs. Pack, but Rex Ryan’s Jets still "over" 9 of last 12 since late LY.
Oakland... Note "unders" in 9 of last 10 vs. Chiefs, who visit the Coliseum this week.
Philadelphia... Birds mostly trending "over" lately (15-9 last 24), and "over" 11 -4 last 15 at the Linc.
Pittsburgh... Steelers have trended "over" at Heinz Field for much of this decade ("over" 51-28 last 79 since early in the ‘01 season), although that hasn’t been as pronounced since HC Mike Tomlin arrived in ‘07 (just 16-14 since). Steelers also "over" 9-4 last 13 away.
St. Louis... The "Sam Bradford Rams" are "under" 6-2 TY, with St. Louis now "under" 9 of its last 11 since late ‘09.
San Diego... "Over" 19-10 last 29 since late ‘08, including "over" 10-4 last 14 at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Francisco... Niners entered 2010 "under" 15-6-1 their last 22 for HC Mike Singletary, although they’re "over" 4-3 TY.
Seattle... Seahawks definitely trending "under" lately at Qwest Field (12-4-1 last 17 as host), though just 1-1-1 "under" at home in early days of new HC Pete Carroll’s regime.
Tampa Bay... Mostly "under" (14-9) since HC Raheem Morris arrived LY, more so at home ("under" 8-4 since ‘09).
Tennessee... Definite "over" trends lately at LP Field (3-1 TY, 13-5-1 last 19). Note 9-1 "under" last 10 vs. Indy, on deck December 9 and January 2.
Washington... Extended "under" trend at FedEx Field (18-10 since ‘07), though they’ve split four between "over" and "under" at home for new HC Mike Shanahan.