Totals worthy of consideration in Friday Arena
By: Steve Makinen
The totals for Arena Football have only been out for about five weeks now, but it seems that a pattern is developing, that being lower scoring each consecutive week. The four games on Friday night had totals released early with an average of 112.3, however, the numbers ranged all the way from 99 to 127. It’s clear there is margin for improvement by oddmakers on this wagering options. Let’s take a look at some strong FoxSheets systems in play for the Friday night games that look ready to pounce on the potential total mistakes.
Before digging into the games though, here’s a look at how scoring has gone in Arena Football by week this season. As you can see, it’s been all over the map, with the Week 13 games producing the second few average points of any week to date. In fact, scoring for the last four weeks has trended downward, perhaps not coincidentally with the first totals being released by oddsmakers in Week 10.
Week 1 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 113
Week 2 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 118.2
Week 3 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 114.3
Week 4 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 129.3
Week 5 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 116.7
Week 6 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 123.9
Week 7 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 104.1
Week 8 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 101.3
Week 9 - Average Total: N/A, Average Scoring: 111.9
Week 10 - Average Total: 110.5, Average Scoring: 115.1
Week 11 - Average Total: 112.6, Average Scoring: 114
Week 12 - Average Total: 113.7, Average Scoring: 113.4
Week 13 - Average Total: 112.2, Average Scoring: 102.1
Does this mean we’re headed for the lowest scoring week of 2010? Or should we expect an offensive outburst again, like that of Weeks 4 & 6? According to a few FoxSheets systems, I’d say the former. Take a look:
CHICAGO at TAMPA BAY - 8:00 PM
Tampa Bay and Chicago own the #1 and #3 ranked defenses in the Arena League in points allowed, respectively. However, both teams offenses have been on fire of late. Tampa Bay has won its last six games by scoring 60.7 PPG. Chicago is on a 3-game winning streak in which it has averaged 62.7 PPG. Apparently, bettors believe defense will still rule the day, as the total has been bet down from its opening number of 108 to its current position of 105. This strong system tends to agree:
# Play Under - Any team when the total is greater than or equal to 100 (TAMPA BAY) - good team - outscoring opponents by 5 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 106 total points or more were scored. (109-65 over the last 10 seasons.) (62.6%, +37.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Game Estimator calls for about 116 points though. We’ll see what wins out.
IOWA at DALLAS - 8:30 PM
The Iowa-Dallas total has dropped a bunch too from its opening number of 103. It is now at 99, despite the fact that Iowa erupted for 68 points last week. That fact actually leads to a system suggesting to play the OVER:
# Play Over - Any team when the total is between 90 and 99.5 points (IOWA) - after scoring 58 points or more last game. 79-41 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.8%, +33.9 units. Rating = 2*)
Dallas had a rough outing last week, posting just 31 points on Oklahoma City, but did score 57 PPG in its prior four contests.
MILWAUKEE at UTAH - 9:00 PM
Milwaukee has posted four games of 70+ points this season and Utah allows 66.7 on average. By doing some simple interpolation, you could probably determine that Milwaukee is bound for about 70 points this week, assuming no injuries or other unusual circumstances arise. With the total for the Iron-Blaze game set at 118, that would mean that Utah needs to get about 50 to take this game OVER the number. According to the following system, Utah should score 50, but Milwaukee will get nowhere near the 70 projected:
# Play Under - Any team against the total (UTAH) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 60 or more points/game, after allowing 53 points or more in 3 straight games. (46-21 since 1996.) (68.7%, +22.9 units. Rating = 2*) The average total posted in these games was: 111.6 The average score in these games was: Team 50.7, Opponent 55.4 (Total points scored = 106.1)
Not only then does this angle offer up a good total opportunity, it also suggests the game might be much closer than oddsmakers have projected. Since opening as 22-point road favorites, Milwaukee has since been bet down to minus-20.
ARIZONA at SPOKANE - 11:00 PM
Arizona and Spokane have won with offense this season, as they are the top two scoring teams in all of the Arena League. In most cases, this would mean that a shootout is expected when the teams get together in Spokane on Friday night. Such is not the case in the history of the AFL, as both teams qualify for a frequent but profitable StatFox Super Situation:
# Play Under - Any team when the total is greater than or equal to 110 (ARIZONA) - good offensive team - scoring 55 or more points/game. (163-98 over the last 10 seasons.) (62.5%, +55.2 units. Rating = 2*)
This game pits two of the better overall teams in the league and should be good regardless of whether it goes over or under the posted total of 127.
This is a huge week for systems on the FoxSheets in Arena Football, both on sides and totals, some with as high as 93% success rates and 5 stars on our rating scale. Be sure to take advantage by signing on to the site anytime before Friday’s Week 14 kickoffs.