Tread Lightly in Week 17
By Bruce Marshall
The last weekend of the pro football regular season has been confounding pundits and handicappers alike for decades. In no other week of the campaign does the forecasting drift into the "psychology" realm as much as the final one. Making matters more confusing is the fact we have been witness to so many memorable examples, both confirming and disproving, of these supposed "psychological" considerations, throughout the decades.
Anyone who recalls the end of the 1965 NFL season, and the bristling race between the Packers and Colts in the Western Conference, would never assume teams with "nothing to play for" would simply roll over in the final week. For those who don’t recall, or weren’t around in 1965, that was the season in which the Colts lost both of their top two QBs, the great Johnny Unitas and capable backup Gary Cuozzo, near the end of the campaign, and were forced to employ RB Tom Matte as an "emergency" QB for the final regular-season game, a nationally-televised Saturday afternoon affair vs. the 4-9 Rams at the L.A. Coliseum. The Colts entered that contest at 9-3-1, a half-game behind the 10-3 Packers, who had beaten Baltimore at a fog-shrouded Memorial Stadium in the penultimate week of the campaign. That was one of the great games of RB Paul Hornung’s career, as the "Golden Boy" scored 5 TDs in a 42-27 Packer romp. The Colts were still in the West race, however, and could win the Conference with a victory at the Coliseum combined with a Green Bay loss the next day at San Francisco. Ties involving either team created the possibility of a one-game playoff the following week. The Rams, however, had surged late in the season after QB Roman Gabriel replaced an injured Bill Munson, and entered the Colts’ game very hot, having won three in a row, including dominating wins over the Packers and Eastern Conference champion Browns. Indeed, considering the Colts’ plight with Matte, and the Rams’ uptick, it was L.A., despite having nothing to play for, installed as the betting favorite.
The game was pulsating, with Baltimore summoning every ounce it had in reserve to keep its title hopes alive, and the Rams putting forth a maximum effort despite their lowly record and last-place standing in the West. Any thoughts that L.A. would "pack it in" after falling behind 10-0 in the 2nd Q were quickly dismissed when Gabriel culminated a long march just before halftime with a 10-yard TD pass to vet WR Tommy McDonald. The Rams, never contemplating surrender, then forged a 14-10 lead in the 3rd Q when Gabe teamed with rookie WR Jack Snow on a 60-yard TD strike. The game continued to hang in the balance into the 4th Q; in a little-known historical footnote, Colts HC Don Shula had picked up veteran QB Ed Brown from the Steelers earlier in the week, and it was Brown who actually brought the Colts back into the game with a 68-yard TD pass to TE John Mackey in the 4th Q to level matters at 17. Two late interceptions of Gabriel by Colt DB Bobby Boyd, first setting up Michaels’ 23-yard FG, then denying the Rams after Gabriel had driven them deep into Colt territory in the waning moments, gave Baltimore a dramatic 20-17 win and put the pressure on the Pack to beat San Francisco the next day to claim the West crown.
Only the 49ers had different ideas. In an act that would send some present-day handicappers we know into overload, San Francisco QB John Brodie, in a pre-game, on-field interview (the sort that used to be commonplace before studio pregame shows appeared on the scene), told the TV audience and fellow Packer interviewees Hornung and Ray Nitschke that San Francisco was going to "make sure Baltimore wins the West" by taking down Green Bay at Kezar Stadium. Hard for some we know to believe anyone would ever challenge the Lombardi Packers so brazenly ("Bulletin board material!"), but Hornung and Nitschke weren’t offended in the least; they would have expected no less of Brodie and the 49ers. San Francisco had nothing on the line except professional pride, and like the Rams the previous day, the 49ers fought back from a double-digit deficit and eventually took a 4th-Q lead when Brodie hit Dave Parks with a 12-yard score. Green Bay then rallied to take a late 24-17 edge, but the 49ers, supposedly with nothing to play for, had come too far to surrender, and Brodie led a last-minute drive to tie the score at 24 on a 27-yard TD pass to Vern Burke. The game ended in a 24-24 deadlock.
Indirectly, that result resonates today, as it forced a one-game playoff between the Packers and Colts the following week (won controversially so by Green Bay, 13-10, in overtime, ironically immortalizing Matte in the process), in what is widely accepted as the seed that motivated NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle to eventually introduce an expanded playoff format, the sort we have in place today, for the 1967 season. Meanwhile, as for the Rams, their final-game loss to the Colts presaged the dismissal of HC Harland Svare, with George Allen, hired from George Halas’ Bears staff, taking charge thereafter. Hardly an uneventful final week!
Before the ‘60s were complete, the Packers were involved in a couple of other examples of differing final-week dynamics. The ‘67 team, which had clinched a spot in Rozelle’s newly-expanded playoffs, subbed liberally and dropped its finale to the lowly Steelers, 24-17; yes, Vince Lombardi lost his last regular-season game as Green Bay coach. The following year, under Phil Bengston, the Pack had been eliminated from the playoff chase when it traveled to Chicago for its final game against a Bears team that could win the NFC Central title by beating Green Bay, which would be starting backup QB Zeke Bratkowski in place of injured Bart Starr. With nothing to play for except pride, and with Bratkowski KO’d early in the game, forcing little-used 2nd-year ex-San Diego State QB Don Horn into the lineup, the Pack nonetheless took control early and held on for a 28-27 win, which helped gift the Central to Bud Grant’s Vikings, who won at Philadelphia the same afternoon.
Those are just a few long-ago examples of differing final week-scenarios. The Green Bay ‘67 case has also played out numerous times in the decades since, where teams that have clinched their spots in the postseason are apt to low-key it in the final week, or two; witness the Colts’ meltdown last season when QB Peyton Manning was pulled in favor of backup Curtis Painter, which effectively scuttled Indy's hopes of an unbeaten regular season. With Painter scheduled to go most of the finale at Buffalo, the Colts were even installed as 8-point dogs but still failed to cover, losing 30-7. We have seen numerous other playoff-bound teams sub liberally and pay the price in final regular-season games (the Bengals were similarly non-focused for their finale last season vs. the Jets, who needed the win to secure a postseason berth; New York easily covered the 10-point spread in a 37-0 romp). Not always, however, do playoff-bound teams simply roll over; the Cardinals had clinched the NFC West and their playoff seed in ‘08 when they nonetheless won and covered handily vs. Seattle. Indeed, if there is one constant in most final-week dynamics, it’s that teams rarely don’t play hard, especially squads that are out of the playoff race entirely. For those sorts, other factors might contribute to a losing performance, but given that these guys are playing for their livelihoods, rarely do they decide not to give maximum effort, at least not to the frequency many observers seem to believe.
Bad teams can find various ways to beat themselves. But it’s never because they’re not trying to win!
Back in 2005, we also recall San Francisco being in "pole position" for the number one draft choice entering the last two weeks of the season, only to beat the Rams and Texans and slide down to the 6th position in the draft. Further back, we also remember sides such as the 1968 Eagles winning twice late in the season and denying themselves a chance to draft the ballyhooed O.J. Simpson (who ended up at Buffalo), and the 1988 Packers winning an otherwise meaningless regular-season finale at Phoenix, conceding the top choice in the draft to the Cowboys, who took Troy Aikman with the first pick.
No matter, the final regular-season week need not send handicappers into a state of panic. Indeed, adherence to traditional forecasting principles (such as identifying strengths and weaknesses of each side, fundamental matchups, personnel situations, and technical and psychological considerations) is recommended, as always. But we might suggest altering the usual recipe just a bit, because the last week of the NFL season often will more resemble the preseason than a normal regular-season weekend. Much like handicapping exhibition games, we suggest paying extra attention to personnel developments and lineup moves, especially involving quarterbacks (most announced in advance), leading up to the games. As always, a "working knowledge" of the teams often comes in handy.
Recent history provides some interesting Week 17 numbers; since 2007, favorites have outperformed the dogs each season in final weekend action, with a cumulative 27-18 mark vs. the line. Which is somewhat illuminating, as spreads in the final week often become inflated because of the pre-announced personnel changes (often involving backup QBs), and squads such as last year’s Buffalo end up laying points to teams they’d normally not be favored against in a normal regular-season week. As always, it’s a good idea to handicap these games individually, not collectively.