Trends at the 3/4 Pole
By Bruce Marshall
With three-quarters of the NFL season complete, most teams have developed certain pointspread and/or "totals" characteristics unique to the current campaign. Following are team-by-team looks at the most pronounced of those trends and angles.
Arizona... It’s gone pear-shaped for the Cardinals, who have dropped their last four, six of their last seven, and 9 of their last 11 vs. the number. Arizona is also 1-6 vs. the spread at home this season. Recent problems with the offense have impacted "totals" trends as well; after "over" in 7 of their first 9 games, the Cards are "under" 2-0-1 in their last three.
Atlanta... Hot, covering last four games. Falcons are also "over" 8-4 this season.
Baltimore... Ravens have flattened out a bit, no covers last two weeks and just 5-7 vs. the spread overall this season. No covers in 4 of 6 as host.
Buffalo... Bills caught a slight updraft after bye week, standing 4-1-1 vs. line over the next six weeks, but might be ready to slide the other way after last week’s loss at Minnesota.
Carolina... One of this year’s real disaster teams, the panthers are just 3-9 vs. the number and have not had much of a home-field advantage in Charlotte, dropping five of six vs. spread as host. Curiously, note "overs" in last four after 6-2 "under" mark in first half of season.
Chicago... Bears are undefeated straight up and 3-1-1 vs. the line since their bye week on Halloween weekend. Chicago also "under" 7-3-2 this season.
Cincinnati... Things went pear-shaped for the Bengals long ago, as they’ve dropped seven of their last nine spread decisions, although they did manage a cover last week vs. Saints.
Cleveland... Note that Brownies had gone "over" in six straight prior to last week at Miami.
Dallas... Things have turned around dramatically for the Cowboys since HC Wade Phillips was dismissed and Jason Garrett promoted, with Dallas 4-0 vs. the pointspread since. The Cowboys are also "over" 4-0 on Garrett’s watch.
Denver... Let’s see how Broncos react after the dismissal of HC Josh McDaniels earlier this week, and if Denver rallies for interim HC Eric Studesville as has Dallas after its coaching change. Prior to Josh’s dismissal, the Broncos had dropped 6 of their last 8 spread decisions, including 4 of their last 5 at home. Denver is also "over 8-4 this season, and that includes "unders" in 2 of last 3.
Detroit... Lions have had mostly positive spread results this season, covering 9 of 12 despite dropping 2 of last 3 vs. number. Detroit also "over" 8-3-1 this season.
Green Bay... Pack surging, with covers in 5 of last 6. Also a slight departure from recent years in predominance of "unders" (8-4 to date, although Pack was "over" last week vs. 49ers).
Houston... Texans enter Monday night game vs. Ravens having covered just one of last five at Reliant Stadium. Note Houston also "over" 8-4 this season.
Indianapolis... It’s been a strange season for the Colts, who dropped their third straight vs. the number when leaving the back door wide open for Tennessee to cover the spread with a meaningless TD on the game’s final play Thursday night. Indy has also dropped its last three spread decisions at home.
Kansas City... Note that the Chiefs enters Sunday’s game at San Diego having gone "over" their last four on the road. Now, who is going to play QB for Kansas City?
Miami... Dolphins have continued formful ways from past two seasons, maintaining status as the top "inside out" team in the league. Miami has won and covered five of first six on the road this season, yet is 1-5 straight up and vs. the number at home.
Minnesota... Much like Dallas after Wade Phillips, the Vikes have rallied following HC Brad Childress’ dismissal, winning and covering two straight for interim (but perhaps soon permanent) HC Leslie Frazier. Remember, that was preceded by five straight losses vs. the number.
New England... Of all of the noteworthy developments this season in Foxborough, we have taken note of the Patriots’ strong "over" trends (now 10-2 after last week’s rout of the Jets).
New Orleans... Saints have not been a terribly reliable spread proposition this season (similar to late in 2009 campaign), standing just 4-7-1 vs. the line.
NY Giants... Giants were wobbling in late November with three straight spread setbacks, yet might have steadied the ship with last week’s easy win over the Skins.
NY Jets...The Jets had a five-game cover streak at one point early in the season, but have since dropped 4 of their last 6 vs. the number. Note surprising 9-3 "overs" this season as well.
Oakland... Raiders have been a bit bipolar this season, and as a result are mostly middling in all spread and "totals" propositions (save perhaps for "over" 4-2 at Coliseum).
Philadelphia... Birds "over" 8-4 this season., including 5-1 away from Linc.
Pittsburgh... Note that Steelers haven’t covered two games in a row since September, or since QB Ben Roethlisberger returned from suspension. Pittsburgh also "under" last three outings.
St. Louis... Rams have emerged as a pointspread force, covering 9 of their last 11 games, including their last four on the road. After extended "under" stretch, Rams had gone "over" three in a row prior to last week’s low-scoring win at Arizona.
San Diego... Bolts’ annual late-season uptick was sidetracked last week vs. Raiders; Norv Turner’s team had won and covered previous four.
San Francisco... 49ers only 3-6 as chalk in this disappointing season.
Seattle... Seahawks have mostly maintained last season’s home road trends, standing 4-2 vs. number at Qwest Field and 2-4 vs. line on road this season. Seattle also "over" 8-3-1 for first-year HC Pete Carroll.
Tampa Bay... Bucs had covered five in a row prior to last week’s loss vs. Falcons. Interestingly, Tampa Bay is 6-0 vs. the line as visitor this season, but only 1-4-1 vs. mark at home.
Tennessee... The Titans were one second away from losing their sixth straight vs. the number before their last-play TD Thursday allowed for a backdoor cover vs. Indy.
Washington... Skins wobbling, losing and failing to cover 4 of last 5. With offense bogging down, Skins also "under" their last three.