Trends to Watch - November
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
The trick-or-treaters are stockpiled for another year and turkeys are running for cover. That can only mean one thing… the NFL in November is here.
Before you make a move on the pro football games this month it would serve you well to gush over some of the good, bad and downright ugly trends outlined below of NFL teams during the month of November dating back to 1990. Because, the Sir Winston Churchill so wisely once put it, “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina has been able to collect the cash in Charlotte this time of year with a 29-17 ATS record and they will have one chance to do so against Atlanta (11/16).
Too bad for Denver they will be on the road four times this month because they are 37-22 ATS at home and will only have Miami visit on the 23rd of the month.
Bad: St. Louis will have two chances to improve on horrific 15-35 ATS mark and one will be a huge task and the other not as much. Peyton Manning and friends arrive on Nov. 16 and two weeks later Oakland is at the nearby Arch.
Even during Super Bowl seasons, the New York Giants floundered in New Jersey with a 15-30 ATS record and will have a trio of opportunities to either improve or do worse against Indianapolis (11/3), San Francisco (11/16) and Dallas (11/23).
Keep an eye on (Bad): To the surprise of nobody, Oakland is a pathetic 15-29 ATS at home and does not figure to improve in division games with Denver (11/9) and a Thursday nighter with Kansas City.
Indianapolis (19-31 ATS) and Washington (18-29 ATS) also are poor at home, but at least the Colts can improve facing the Redskins at the end of the month.
AWAY TEAMS
Good: Aside from last year, Houston has been a dependable road team in November at 16-8 ATS, but with three home games and bye, the Texans will have to only travel to Cleveland in the middle of the month.
Keep an eye on (Good): With Chicago’s woes, curious to how they react in division games with Green Bay (11/9) and in Detroit on Thanksgiving with their 33-18 ATS record.
Cincinnati has been a solid traveler at 26-16 ATS, but will be severely tested with three in a row beginning the third week of the month, heading to New Orleans, Houston and Tampa Bay in succession.
Keep an eye on (Bad): This is annually when Detroit’s season turns as cold as Lake Michigan and they will have to visit Arizona and New England with a 15-27 spread record.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas has been a great story all season and they have been quite good handing out digits at 40-24 ATS in November. As long as Tony Romo is playing, the Cowboys will be favored in every game this month.
Bad: The Washington Redskins began to turn their season around in late October. Historically they have not been very good as favorites this month at 12-27 ATS. They might be the people’s choice on Nov. 2 at Minnesota and certainly will be handing out points two weeks later when Tampa Bay is in town.
Keep an eye on (Bad): By the end of the month, St. Louis will have faced a stretch of seven games versus teams who could well be in the playoffs this year. On the last Sunday of the month, they finally catch a break facing Oakland, but they are 14-25 ATS as November chalk.
It will be up to the Kansas City Chiefs to lift the spirits of Kansas City fans after coming so close in the World Series. K.C. however is only 21-35 ATS as favorites the month after the Fall Classic. The Chiefs will be favored against the Jets at home and at Oakland on a Thursday night. But we will have to see about trip to Buffalo (11/9) and when Seattle visits a week later.
DOGS
Keep an eye on (Good): Because Tampa Bay is usually out of contention for the playoffs by now; they are normally underdogs, which have worked to the benefit of Bucs backers at 35-20 ATS. Tampa Bay will have five such roles this month.
Bad: We mentioned earlier the N.Y. Giants are a bad home team in November and are even worse when listed as underdogs at 11-28 ATS. Though the G-Men have three home games, they are against Indianapolis, San Francisco and Dallas, with a good chance they will be dogs in all. This plus a road trip to Seattle (11/9), Good Luck!
Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit had a very good first half of the season at 6-2 and normally this is where the Lions start to taper off. As underdogs they are only 22-39 ATS and fit this role at Arizona (11/16) and at New England (11/23).
DIVISION
Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas is a solid bet here at 25-15 ATS and will be at the Giants on the 23rd and hosting Philadelphia on Thanksgiving.
Keep an eye on (Bad): The St. Louis scheduling nightmare continues with a return engagement with San Francisco on Nov. 2 at their joint and at Arizona the following week. The Rams are 17-29 ATS vs. division foes.
The Chiefs will have to go on the warpath to improve their 16-27 ATS mark against division foes. Kansas City will face Oakland and Denver at the end of the month.