Trends to Watch - November
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
November brings out the best in family, football and friends. It’s the time of the year when the NFL makes its 2nd half run to the playoffs, and where friends and family dine around the Thanksgiving Day table for food and good times.
Let’s ensure a good time playing the football games with these delectable morsels of trends and patterns by NFL teams since 1990. Enjoy the games, and pass on the gravy.
HOME TEAMS
Good: Buffalo has been the best home team this time of the season at 31-18 ATS. Unfortunately, thanks to a bye week, they have just one home game against Jacksonville (11/27).
Bad: Maybe a change in venue will help the Rams, since they are miserable 17-37 ATS playing at home this month. Carolina (11/6) and Miami (11/20) will pay a visit to Los Angeles.
Nearly as bad is Cleveland at 11-22 ATS and they will have a trio of opportunities to improve, but all are against playoff contenders. The Browns will take on the Dallas (11/6), Pittsburgh (11/20) and the New York Giants (11/27).
Keep an eye on (Bad): For some reason, there are several NFL teams that are money-drainers in November at home. Let's start in the NFC East with the Giants (17-32 ATS) and Washington (20-30 ATS). The G-Men actually have a three-game homestand to start the month, facing Philadelphia (11/6), Cincinnati (11/14) and Chicago (11/20). After a bye week, the Redskins host NFC North clubs Minnesota (11/13) and Green Bay(11/20) on consecutive weeks.
In the AFC, we find Oakland (16-31 ATS) and Tennessee (19-29 ATS) have been rather awful in their buildings. The Raiders have Sunday night game on the 6th against Denver and close the month on the 27th versus Carolina. The Titans have three road games in November, thus their fans will just see Green Bay (11/13).
AWAY TEAMS
Good: Houston has been rather dismal on the road in 2016, let's see if they can match 18-8 ATS November records from the past. After a week off the Texans are at Jacksonville (11/13) followed by a trip to Mexico to play the Raiders (11/20).
Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago has an exceptional 37-20 spread record away from the Windy City and will venture to Tampa Bay and New Jersey (Giants) in the middle two Sunday's of the month.
Indianapolis (33-19 ATS) and the Browns (29-17 ATS) have also thrived out of town. The Colts will be at the not quite frozen tundra in Lambeau Field on the Nov.6th, with Cleveland at truly hated Baltimore on a Thursday night (11/10).
Keep an eye on (Bad): Other than last year, Detroit usually fades in the second half as noted by 16-29 ATS mark on the road. Lucky for the Lions only one road assignment, which is at Minnesota on the first Sunday of the month.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): Despite Carolina’s precipitous fall this season, they are 28-18 ATS and could be favored in four of their games this month.
The Bears are solid 23-14 ATS when handing out points and figure to be a small home favorite over Tennessee on the 27th, but that could change by game time.
Dallas for much of the Tony Romo era was known for great November's and collapsing in December. He contributed to 42-28 ATS record this month, and his teammates will be favored at Cleveland (11/6), home against Baltimore (11/20) and versus the Redskins (Thanksgiving), with game at Pittsburgh (11/13) up in the air depending on Ben Roethlisberger's availability.
Bad: Washington is a horrific favorite in November with a 12-29 ATS record, but we will have to see if they are assigned that role at home against the Vikings (11/13) and Packers (11/20).
Keep an eye on (Bad): The Rams are 15-26 ATS in chalk roles and they might be once at home against Miami (11/20).
Oakland is actually worse than L.A. handing out the digits at 15-28 against the spread, yet are likely small favorites against the Texans (11/20) in Mexico and the following week hosting the Panthers. The Raiders are probably a short home dog to Denver on the 6th, but that is wait and see.
UNDERDOGS
Keep an eye on (Good): Usually by now, Tampa Bay is playing out the season and that has made them a dangerous underdog at 40-24 ATS. However, the numbers will be smaller this season in that role with improvement, going to K.C. (11/20) and hosting Seattle the next week.
Houston is sharp 21-14 ATS as a pooch and as mentioned, will most likely get a few points against Oakland and have a slight chance of being no more than a one-point dog at Jacksonville (11/13) coming off a bye.
Bad: A lot of negative talk about the Rams, but when you have all these rotten numbers and add in 15-34 ATS mark as underdogs, it is unavoidable. Oddsmakers will probably make L.A. a dog when Cam Newton and company comes to town on the 6th and assuredly Jeff Fisher's squad will be given points at the Jets (11/13) and at the Saints (11/27).
The Giants are dreadful 13-31 ATS receiving point from sportsbooks, yet do not figure to be underdogs, unless Cincinnati (11/14) gets hot for visit to Jersey on Monday night.
Keep an eye on (Bad): The Lions are at 23-40 ATS are play against material as underdogs. For sure they will dogs at Minnesota (11/6), however, the return engagement on Thanksgiving is not a certainty.
DIVISION
Keep an eye on (Good): New Orleans posts a quality 27-15 ATS record in the NFC South and will at Carolina on the 17th for a Thursday throw-down.
Da Raiders are 28-19 ATS and can make some noise with a home upset of the Broncos on the first Sunday. The Eagles will fly to play the Giants also on Nov.6th and try to improve on 30-20 ATS division mark.
Keep an eye on (Bad): The Chiefs are undistinguished 18-29 ATS in the AFC West and will be at a Mile High on the 27th.