"TRUE STEAM" is "75% ATS" the L/5 WEEKS..."65% ATS" OVERALL !!
by vegas-runner
The "TRUE STEAM" just keeps on Winning...and after another "3-1" Week...it's now "18-6" (75%) over the L/5 Weeks...and "23-11" (68%) for the Season...
To be perfectly honest, coming into this week's match-ups...I knew that it was going to take a lot of work and information gathering, because we have a limited NCAAFB board...And as I've explained before, there are always going to be fewer "Early Moves" in the NFL as the season progresses...
As we can see from what lines are available...the sportsbooks are in no rush to give the Betting Syndicates numbers to move on early in the week...They want to have a better idea of what these Wiseguys may be looking for, and more importantly...get a feel for what the "betting public" will be coming in on as the week moves forward...and especially on "game-day"...
Because as I've said countless times...the "public money" will almost always out-weigh the "wiseguy money"...when it comes to the NFL, especially on those "Prime-Time" marquee match-ups...Which is one of the main reasons that I not only love betting into the books on those match-ups...but I'm also confident enough to make them some of my biggest bets...
Fortunately, I was able to put a lot of time into this blog since Sunday evening...and with the help of so many other sources, I was actually able to find "4" NCAAFB & NFL "TRUE STEAM" Bets...that my own Ratings/Numbers, support that there is enough "value" for us to take a position...
And I was also able to ISOLATE one of those four...and have uploaded it into the System for Subscribers already...and have also uploaded it into a package for daily players...as this week's NCAAFB 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK...
And we'll look to stay PERFECT and make it "3" Straight Winners...
But like I said...I was able to uncover "4" positions that offer some excellent betting value...So let's get to those other "3"...VR
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for SAT 12-5-09 :
1.) FLORIDA INTL Opened +1.5....Now -1/-1.5
This is one of those "added board" match-ups that almost exclusively get bet on by the Wiseguys...Very rarely does the betting public get involved, and even when they do...the "wiseguy money" will definitely out-weigh it...So the books will usually put a "circle" around these match-ups...which imposes a "limit" on how much money they are willing to book...Usually, that limit is 1/2 of what they would usually book...and in some cases, it's even less...Now the good part about that is you can almost always be sure that if the line moves, there was some "steam" behind it...Unless there is an injury, weather, ect...The bad part is that the books won't hesitate to move the line drastically, to stop other Outfits from also betting into them...But because that opens the door for a nice "middle" opportunity, in the last few years...I've noticed them adjusting much less...Back when I was a "runner" and we called this the "junk board"...it wouldn't be surprising to see the lines on the "added board" move an entire TD...And back then, even teams like Ball St & W Michigan...were considered "added games"...So with that, let's get to this move...The books brought FLA ATL out as a -1.5 pt road fav...And the Wiseguys began grabbing +1.5...then +1...and finally even laid PK...Which forced the books to make FLA INTL a -1 pt fav by the end of business on Monday...But the Outfits weren't done, because they went ahead and "steamed" FLA INTL once again this morning, laying -1...and forcing some books to go directly to -2, while others opted for -1.5...And right now, we are seeing anywhere from -1 to -1.5 to bet FLA INTL...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Those books who went to -2...opened the door for one of those "middles" that we know the Outfits love taking...Because they were now able to get BOTH teams at +1.5 or better...And of course, that's exactly what they did...which is why those who did go to -2, have since come back down...So the books now are sure that if they raise this line, the Outfits will step in and work that profitable middle...Which leads me to believe, that unless another "Buy-Order" comes down...this line should stay around -1/-1.5...And with any "public money" that may be bet on this game, expected to come in on FLA ATL, that should help minimize the risk...at least a little...If you agree with the Wiseguys, then you could wait and see if they do adjust some...But if you disagree, and like the other-side...then I would look to grab the +1.5 now...VR
2.) UNDER TEX/NEB Opened 46.5....Now 44/43.5
This is an extremely significant move for such a marquee match-up, and I'm really surprised that after CRIS opened this Total at 46.5...the Wiseguys reprimanded them over 3 pts...You would think that for such a "marquee" game, even though the books have to factor in "public perception" more...that they wouldn't have been so far off...But obviously they were, and the Outfits let them know it...More importantly, the books are expecting overwhelming "public money" on the OVER in this match-up...So the fact that they were willing to lower this that much, tells me the books really RESPECT this "steam play"...And it didn't take long at all, for the books to show that respect because in a total of only "6" MINUTES...Cris went from 46.5...all the way down to 43...More than a FG move to the Under...And because "43" is one of those "Key Totals"...the Wiseguys obviously saw some value in trying to work a "middle", so they went ahead and bet some Over 43...Which is why the rest of the sportsbooks brought their Total for this game out, anywhere from 44 to 43.5...And that is where it stands this afternoon...VR
LINE PREDICTION : It's no secret where the "public money" will be for this Total...It'll all be on the OVER...And since the sportsbooks saw that a move to 43, prompted the Outfits to act...and attempt a "middle"...the only way this line drops some more, is if there is a huge "weather" factor on game-day...Because I really don't see another "Buy-Order" on the UNDER, and the "runners" I spoke to already, don't either...With that said, if you agree with the Wiseguys and VR...then you can sit back and wait until game-day, when the "public money" possibly forces the books to raise this Total...But if you disagree, then I suggest you go ahead and bet that Over now...because this line should move only 1 way from here on out...and that's Up...VR
NFL "TRUE STEAM" for SUN 12-7-09
1.) SEAHAWKS Opened +1....Now PK/-1
I was a bit surprised that we saw a couple of "early moves" in the NFL this week...But with that said, I know from experience that the majority weren't "TRUE STEAM"...And it won't be until later in the week, when the lines are up for every NFL game...that the Outfits will begin to truely take some positions for this weekend's NFL match-ups...But there was 1 move that I know for fact to be "TRUE STEAM"...And more importantly, my Ratings/Numbers support that the Wiseguys were right on point with this "steam play"...Now this is once again, one of those "moves" that many bettors who follow line moves...or try to piggy-back steam, would definitely miss...Because it doesn't appear to be very significant...And since it was made swiftly, and at only a number of books...it makes picking it off very difficult...Fortunately, we have access to many of these bets from the very people who bet them...so more times than not, we won't miss these subtle "Bombs"...For this "steam play", CRIS put out the first line and they made SF -1...and as soon as they did, the Wiseguys unloaded on SEA at +1 & PK...This move forced the other books who open a bit later, to make SEA now a -1/-1.5 fav...So what did the Outfits do next ?? Exactly what we expect them to...And that's take the +1.5 on SF...so that once again, they have BOTH teams in the same game as DOGS...But I can tell you for certainty, that the much "bigger position" is on SEA...And that's the side they will need come Sunday...But because of that "middle" attempt...we are now seeing this game at a PK, or SEA -1...VR
LINE PREDICTION : This is another case where both, the bookmakers and wiseguys know that the "betting public" will come in heavy on SF...But if the books allow that action to force them into making SF the fav again, then they open themselves up to get "steamed" on SEA by the Outfits, again...In my experience, what we usually see here is the books trying to get this game to go off at a PK...And not make either side the Fav...Many times, that becomes impossible due to "public" or "wiseguy" pressure...But that is what the goal will be for this game...And I don't believe that either team should go off at higher than -1/-1.5 by kick-off...VR
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
This is the time of the year in Pro Football where the race to the playoffs take center stage along with key injuries and weather. We have already seen several games spreads be affected by the uncertainty of key players due to concussions and we’ll start to get weeks where several games will be affected he snow and worst of all cold winds which drastically affect the side and totals.
Cities like Cleveland, Buffalo, Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New York will all be primed for a few bad days of weather soon. Denver’s crazy weather changes hourly from beautiful sunny days to a down pour of snow. Many Sports Books in Las Vegas leave off the totals of those teams on parlay cards when they have home games in December just for fear of being locked in all week with a bad number and the possibility that the total will run four to six points by game time.
We saw New England put 59 on the board against Tennessee in early October with snow every where, but because there was no wind Tom Brady was able to throw effectively and almost magically for one of his best days ever.
The slumping Giants have had 10 days to think about their season on the brink after getting beat on Thanksgiving by a then slumping Broncos squad. Sunday’s game against the Cowboys is a must win if the Giants have any ideas of making the playoffs. However, the betting public doesn’t believe in them any more.
The Cowboys opened at 1-point road favorite and has been bet up to 2.5 against the team that beat them in Dallas 33-31 in week two.
All it took was one game to change an impression on the Patriots. Prior to their Monday night loss at New Orleans, The Patriots had been listed as 6.5-point favorites at Miami. Once the game started it was taken off the board and then reset on Tuesday where it opened Patriots minus-4.
The Saints number stayed at minus-10 before and after the Monday night game and currently sits at 9.5 in their game at Washington this week. The Redskins and their top ranked pass defense could give the Saints some fits. The combination of coming off a huge Monday night win on a short week never seems to work out well for teams the following week.
The forecast for Green Bay this Monday night is snow showers and cold. The Packers opened minus-2.5 (-120) and have crossed over 3 to 3.5 (Even). The total in this game has dropped from 44 to 43. Look for that to drop further as game time approaches meaning if you like the under, bet it now.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
This is the last week of College Football before the Bowl season starts and with the way the games in the rotation have rapidly moved, the bettors are looking to go out with a bang. There are only 15 games this weekend, but seven of the games have moved two points or more.
The biggest mover of the week has Louisiana Tech (3-8) welcoming San Jose State (2-9) matching up Tech Head Coach and up comer, Derek Dooley, against the Dick Tomey who will retire following the game. Tech is surely a team that has underachieved after having so much success last season, including winning a Bowl game, but someone sees something in them that has seen the line move 5 points.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants suggested a line of Tech minus-16 as their send out. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the game at a high number of 18.5. On Tuesday, the flood gates opened and the line went all the way up the ladder to 23.5 and peaking at 24 on Thursday before finally getting some buy back on San Jose State pushing it back to 23.5 where it sits now.
The Big Conference Championship games have held steady from their opening numbers with Alabama seeing some action at +5.5 and Texas getting moved a half from the opener of 14 to where it currently sits at 14.5 against Nebraska.
Friday night’s MAC Championship game saw early action Tuesday pushing Central Michigan from the opener of minus-11.5 to 13.5 against Ohio.
The Conference USA Championship game will be somewhat of a home game for East Carolina as they’ll be playing Houston in their own Stadium. East Carolina opened at Pick em, but the Sharps jumped on the passing attack of the Cougars on Tuesday with most of the other moves pushing Houston to minus-2.5.
Cincinnati opened a 1-point dog at Pittsburgh and is now a 2.5-poinit favorite in this pivotal game. Should Cincinnati win, it’s likely they’ll be able to pass idle TCU in the BCS rankings and perhaps even further if they can get some help from Nebraska. They know either Florida or Alabama is going to lose and if Texas should falter, they would have a sound argument to play for the Championship.
Cincy-Florida or Bama wouldn’t be the most interesting game for a title, but would love to see it just to throw a wrench in the College football machine who frown upon a playoff system for some reason.
Other College Football Moves
* Rutgers opened as 2-point dog in their home game with West Virginia but was quickly moved to a 1.5-point favorite.
* Illinois opened a 1-point home favorite to Fresno State and is currently 3.
* Florida International opened a 1-point dog and is now a 1.5-point favorite over Florida Atlantic.
Stan's Sharp Move for Saturday
By Stan Sharp
Wisconsin @ Hawaii
Opened -11.5 now -12 & 12.5
Stan notes this game opened at -11.5 at the Greek and at Cris. Here in Vegas and offshore this game has been bet to -12 & 12.5. This is a move that Stan believes isn't done he expects this game to climb to -13 as the sharps are playing the Wisconsin side and for good reason. Hawaii will not be able to stop Wisconsin's offense. Last week they caught Navy off of a big win over Notre Dame and now playing 7 days later in sunny Hawaii. Wisconsin isn't here celebrating a win in their last game so they should be focused for a big effort. Stan's take the Wise Guys have spoken so you should listen and Play Wisconsin.