TRUE STEAM: CFB & NFL
By Vegas Runner
We had some success last week with the "TRUE STEAM", going "4-2" Overall...It was the 1st week that I decided to add my own handicapp to the mix, by choosing those "Early Moves" that the Wiseguys made which offer the biggest edge based on my own "Lines"...And then trying to narrow them down to the 5 that I like the most...I only ask that you keep in mind that I have not had the time to really disect each individual match-up...and just like the Wiseguys, these selections are based on "Numbers" alone...
Remember, as the season progresses there are less and less "Big Early Moves"...Because the "Power Ratings" of Both, the Wiseguys and Oddsmakers tend to resemble each others more and more...as they both collect more data...
With that said, since the Oddsmakers have to weigh in "Public Perception"...especially in football where the Public money far outweighs the Wiseguy money...And on the "Marquee Match-Ups", many times it isn't even close...And ultimately, that is where the Wiseguys gain the advantage...and will always have the advantage...
No better proof than the fact the sportsbooks now move their lines on "Air"...Without even booking a single penny...And there's also no better proof than the knowing the books take a smaller limit on the "Opening Lines" in those initial 24hrs after accepting bets for the following week's games...I mean let's tell it like it is...they have a 5 cent edge on EVERY dollar that's bet, so if they had any confidence in these lines...they would be welcoming the money...not refusing it...
So let's go ahead and see if we can pick out some winning "TRUE STEAM" for the week ahead...
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for 10-24-09
1.) CLEMSON opened +7....Now +5
CRIS went ahead and opened the line at Miami -7 for this match-up...and within 3 minutes after opening, the Wiseguys went ahead and grabbed +7 on Clemson...forcing the drop to 6.5...That's where the Greek opened the number, but plenty of shops went ahead and opened Miami at -7...because they do expect to get plenty of "Public Money" bet on Miami this Saturday...In those first 24hrs, we did see a couple of Outfits grab +7 throughout the day, but books weren't making too big of an adjustment and by the end of the night...Miami was -6.5 across the board...In fact, many of the Vegas Books who refused to put out an NCAAFB Line until late Monday...went ahead and brought it out at 7, thinking that the Wiseguys may not be looking for anymore...But that was where they were wrong, and the Wiseguys began STEAMING Clemson +6.5 all over the place...The books quickly moved to 6 and that's where it was across the board at the close of Monday...Then this morning, on Tuesday, after having some more time to work on the match-up...the Outfits sent out yet another "Buy Order" at +6...Sending the books scrambling once again to move adjust, and right now we are looking at +5...and we even see a low of 4.5 at the Hilton...This sequence of events really tells us just how much the Wiseguys like Clemson this week...They could have very easily allowed the betting public to move the line up for them, possibly above the "Key Number" of 7...But it appears that their Ratings showed such a discrepency, that none of the Outfits wanted to be the ones left out...And as soon as the first group grabbed the points...the rest joined in as well...Line Prediction : There is no reason why the books won't go to 4.5 or even 4 if they see some "Steam Followers" try to bet Clemson also...But I really can't see it dipping any lower because the "Public" is expected to come in heavy with Miami money, which may even push it up a point...The Wiseguys were able to get down plenty of money by waiting until all the outs provided a line before they really started buying up Clemson...VR
2.) MIAMI OHIO opened +13....Now +11/+10.5
CRIS was the first to offer a line on this match-up, and within 4 minutes of opening it at N ILL -13...the Wiseguys let them know that it was too high...CRISimmediately went to 12.5, 12, then 11.5 within the initial 25 minutes after opening...So when the rest of the off-shore books were ready to start accepting wagers on next week's games...they knew what the Outfits had done, and opened their line at N ILL -11.5...That's where it was across the board on Monday, until the Wiseguys decided that it was still too high...and sent out another "Buy Order" at +11.5...Most books instantly went to -10.5 on N ILL, while those who only dropped it a 1/2 point...got hit at +11 by a few groups who wanted more on MIA OH...We've since seen a low of 10, and a high of 11 across the board...with the Vegas Books being the one's who want NO "Wiseguy Money" at all...using 10...The offshore books, have decided that the Wiseguys have taken what they wanted...and now in anticipation of "Public Money" on N ILL come Saturday...the books seem to want to keep this line at or above 10.5...Line Prediction : It does appear that the Outfits were able to get down what they had hoped on Miami O...and at the number they wanted...Because they haven't reprimanded those books who are now at -11...This is why I believe we won't see this line drop any more, and just the opposite...those who want to bet Miami O, may be better off by waiting,because as I stated above...the Sportsbooks are expecting the Public to bet N ILL on the weekend, which may force a slight adjustment upwards again...VR
3.) BAYLOR opened +10....Now +9.5
This is one of those "TRUE STEAM" bets that are difficult to uncover if you don't have a solid source when it comes to what the Outfits are doing...Because it's very easy to overlook a 1/2 point movement, or not take it very seriously...And in this case, that would be a huge error because I can CONFIRM that the Wiseguys love Baylor getting double-digits...CRIS opened this line at OK ST -10 on Saturday, and when they didn't receive any Wiseguy money...most of the books felt safe to go ahead and also open the game up at -10, while some even went on to open it at 10.5...The reason for this is obvious, the books are expecting the Public to really show support for Oklahoma St come Saturday...So why give them a good number...And that's where it stood even as Monday came to a close...Then this morning, the Outfits threw a wrench into the books plans...by sending out a "Buy Order" on BAYLOR +10...And they went on to buy up all the +10 they could find...Which has since forced the adjustment to 9.5, and ultimately forced the Wiseguys to stop betting...So it's now obvious to us, that these Outfits believe that getting Baylor at +10 or better is the right side in this game...And I also believe that they've realized that they could now sit back and allow the betting public to possibly move this line back up for them as we approach game-day...Because from what I've heard, they are far from done with getting involved in this match-up...Line Prediction : The books should begin to slowly creep back up to 10 as the week progresses...And as the Public begins betting Ok St and adding them to all kind of Teasers, we should see this line move back up some...That's when I believe that the Outfits will get involved again...And although we may see some +10's or even better early, as we approach game-time, that line should drop as low as +9...I would recommend that anyone looking to follow the Wiseguys here, to grab +10 when they find it because that's the number that they liked, and it should end up being the best you could find...VR
4.) NEVADA opened -13....Now -15.5
This is an extremely significant move, not just because it's over 2pts...but because it's crossed over "14"...Which may not be that "Key" of a number...but to bettors, you are now looking at an extra score to cover...And this really entices those who may be looking to bet dogs...More importantly, this move is significant because the Wiseguys didn't bet it when the line initially was offered on Sunday evening..Instead it wasn't until early on Tuesday, that they got involved and took a position...And "get involved" is exactly what they did...Because they began laying -13, -13.5, & -14...And the books just kept on moving it 1/2 pt at a time, which allowed the Outfits to take a pretty substantial position...This all took place within a "20 min" time frame, which is always difficult for the bookmakers because they just aren't sure when the Outfits will cease betting...And when the dust finally settled, the books had all moved to -15 or higher...which is where this game now stands...This is also one of those spots that we can be sure had more "handicapping" behind it, because it was made almost 2 days after the game was first offered...So it wasn't simply based on a disagreement of the line...And with the books having no problem taking it up over 2 TD's, we can also be pretty sure that they don't want anymore Nevada money...Line Prediction : According to the books, they are expecting split action on this game from the betting public...But now that it's over 2 TD's, they should see more Idaho money on Saturday...I don't see this coming back below 14, unless the Outfits try and work a "Middle"...But I do not think that will be the case, since the public isn't expected to help them push this number up higher...Therefore, I see this line sitting at 15 for most of the week...VR
5.) MICHIGAN ST opened +1.5....Now PK/-1
This is another "STEAM" bet that would be extremely difficult to uncover without getting Confirmation of what the Outfits are doing...Because we actually saw a "Double Move" on this match-up...And it wasn't until just this morning, that the Wiseguys decided to reveal their "True Position"...When CRIS first opened this line on Sunday evening at IOWA -1.5, the initial move made by the Outfits had the books thinking that they would be backing Iowa...And after a couple of smaller wagers on Iowa, the books were quick to adjust their lines and inflate the number all the way to Iowa -2.5...The reason for this was simple...the books feel that they will be 1-sided on this game for sure...Because they believe that the betting public will be taking Iowa on Saturday...and that would put the books at a huge risk, being 1-sided by BOTH...the Public & the Wiseguys...That is never a position that any book wants to be in...I was surprised that the Outfits didn't wait it out until the weekend, and possibly get +3 on MSU after the public starts getting involved on Iowa...But once again, it's one of those spots where nobody wanted to miss the party...And the Wiseguys felt that MSU +2.5 offered them so much value, that when 1 group stepped out and grabbed it...the rest couldn't get to their computers, phones, or in line...fast enough to bet MSU...They took +2.5...they took +2...then +1.5 & +1...Until the books either made the game a PK or MSU -1...Now don't forget, as I have explained countless times...for some reason or other, the Wiseguys just love to get "+ Points" on BOTH teams in the same game...And they may get an opportunity to do that early, before the Public begins betting Iowa and an adjustment is once again made...Line Prediction : As I just said, they love getting Both teams at a dog price...and this is the only reason that I could see Iowa going back to Favorite...Because even though the Public is expected to bet Iowa hard, the sportsbooks know that as a dog, the Outfits love MSU...This once again puts them in a tough spot, which they may remedy by simply making the game go off at a PK...VR
NFL "TRUE STEAM" for 10-25-09 :
1.) DOLPHINS opened +7...Now +6
Well, who didn't see this one coming ??? This has been a classic move made by the Wiseguys since I was first introduced to "Steam"...They love when a team is either extremely "Over-Valued" or "Under-Valued" by the betting public...And in this case, the Outfits believe that the books are now going to make the bettors pay a premium to bet the Saints...Because if they weren't a "public team" before with all that offense...they are definitely one now, after beating the NYG...So I was really waiting to see when the Outfits would begin looking to "fade" the Saints...And after they cashed with them a few times already this year, including last week vs NYG...this is the week they finally did so...The Wiseguys wasted no time at all showing their hand, and when CRIS opened NO -7...they immediately took MIA +7...This move prompted those books opening a bit later, to go ahead and make the line NO -6.5...And it seemed like it was enough to back the Wiseguys off...But then on Monday, the Outfits went on to BUY up all the +6.5 on MIA that was out there...Which is why we are now seeing this game at -6 across the board...Here is another spot where I think the Outfits could have waited because the books are expecting heavy public money on the Saints come Sunday...Which may have allowed the Wiseguys to get an even better number, or at the very least a lower vig...But as we've seen, when the don't do that...many times, these have shown to be their strongest positions...And what we saw here was another example of nobody wanting to be left out...Line Prediction : I don't think that the Outfits will "Buy" anymore MIA at +6...and as the betting public begins betting the NFL match-ups for next Sunday, I believe the Saints will be one of the heavier bet teams...Which should allow the books to raise the line back to at least 6.5...I really don't think they would want to go back to 7, regardless of how hard the public hits the game...because they would once again tempt the Outfits to get involved, something that I don't think they'll want to do...So if you like the Saints, I would go ahead and lay the -6...But if you are going to follow the Wiseguys on this one, you shouldn't lose out at all by waiting until game-day to ultimately get the best line on the Dog.
Would the alabama/tenn game be a "true" steam move? The line opened at 16 and is now down to 14.
Would the alabama/tenn game be a "true" steam move? The line opened at 16 and is now down to 14.
Hard to say since your dealing with such a big number, usually they will move a full point on a big number and it's not like 15.5 is a key number.
I would say no. The public is pretty split on this right now at 58% bama 42% tenn.
This is gonna be one of the best games of the week so I would say the move has more to do with amount of bettors this game is gonna attract.
Thanks guyz..Love the work you guys do here keep it up
Las Vegas Betting Moves
By Micah Roberts
The biggest pro football game of the week has the undefeated Vikings (6-0) traveling to Pittsburgh (4-2) where the main storyline beyond all the Brett Favre hoopla will be Adrian Peterson going against Dick LeBeau’s attacking run defense.
Peterson had a great game last week against a good Baltimore run defense pilling up 143 yards, but the Steelers may be a tougher task this week since Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games.
The bettors obviously feel same way since the opening line of -4 has been bumped up to -5.5 with the total also dropping a half to 45.
“We had some varying opinions in the office with that game,” said Las Vegas Sports Consultants CEO Kenny White. “I had the game the highest at -4 and we settled at -3.5 as our opener. Pittsburgh's a tough place to play, they're physical, the Vikings just came off a game with another physical team in Baltimore, and Minnesota has been very lucky to be undefeated at this point.”
Evidence of White’s theory about the physical nature of playing back-to-back games with Baltimore and Pittsburgh taking their toll lies within the past history of teams playing the two traditionally good defenses. Since 2004, only the 2005 Bengals (among 13 occurrences) have won back to back games in consecutive weeks against the Steelers and Ravens.
The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book has the high number of -5.5 with most the books sitting at -4.5 or -5. With 5 and 5.5 being dead numbers, it’s likely that by game day the line could be -6 or -6.5. So if you like the Steelers, don’t wait until the weekend and if you think the Vikings have a chance at playing well, wait until Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
One of the sharpest players in world already laid the Steelers at -4 and some followers have helped push the line higher to the dead numbers. It’s not likely that any of the smaller groups will go against this play on game day and the public will be on this game as well which should push this game into the sixes. Very rare for the Sharps and Public to be on the same side, but it’s all Steelers on both sides this week which will make the books rooting hard for Minnesota.
The rest of the pro football action has been pretty slow with three other games moving on or off of key numbers. The Packers have been bumped to -7.5 at Cleveland and the Eagles have been pushed to -7 in their Monday Night game at Washington where the Redskins go with Daniel Snyder’s new and improved offense.
The English “Punters” get a crack at American Football this week with the Patriots and Buccaneers taking a visit to Wembley Stadium this week, which is the equivalent of a Chelsea-Portsmouth EPL match where an elite team faces a dregg. Here in the States, the Pats have already been pushed to -14.5 from the opening number of -14.
Over there, where they still hold a grudge due to the results of the revolutionary war, the small money may go against our Patriots just to show their own Patriotism for Union Jack.
College Football Big Moves
Las Vegas Sports Consultants suggested and opening line of Oregon -5.5 point favorites at Washington. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the line -6.5 and it has shot up to -10. My first thought was that maybe the status of Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli was in question with the opening line and an announcement confirming his status as starting shot the line up, but Kenny White says Masoli has been probable for this game from the start of the week and was in the equation of making the opening line.
“I really like what Washington has done this season with Jake Locker, who has NFL skills, and especially at home,” said White. “This season at home they barely lost to LSU, beat USC, and then beat a really good Arizona team. On the other side, Oregon is coming off a bye and has a big look ahead game next week against USC.”
It’ll be interesting to see where this game ends up at by game day. The sharpest wise-guy in Las Vegas made early plays on Oregon and bet it all the way up to the ladder with the last play coming at -9.5. Many books didn’t see that action and moved on air with the steam.
Despite, the move and who bet it, the value right now still looks to be with Washington at home, unless of course this person has information that many of us don‘t get for some time, which has occurred on several occasions in the past, just not in Pac 10 games.
It’s “Pick-on UNLV on the road” time again for bettors every where. The Rebels opened -3 and has been moved to New Mexico a -1.5 point favorite, a pretty good indication of how the betting world feels about the Rebels on the road.
But New Mexico? That stretches the boundaries of logic to a whole new realm. The Lobos haven’t won a game all season.
“UNLV coach Mike Sanford is 7-17 against the spread on the road,” said White. "New Mexico is a very weak team with a new coaching staff that haven’t been able to put much together thus far. Their quarterback hasn’t been 100% all season and they are a very finesse team who I believe the Rebels should be able to take advantage of."
New Mexico is coming off of two tough road games at Texas Tech and Wyoming while the Rebels hit the road after two tough home beat downs given by BYU and Utah.
On the road this year, the public has treated UNLV like an ATM machine by just betting against them. A few of the largest moves of the season occurred when the Rebels played at Wyoming as a favorite, losing 30-27, and at Nevada when they got smacked 63-28 giving up 771 yards.
As bad as the Rebels have been on the road this year and years past, they may have their best chance at winning this week.
Inside the Steam - Week of Oct 20th
by Stan Sharp
Iowa @ Michigan St
Michigan St opened +1.5 now Pick and -1
Stan notes that we saw this exact situation last week with Iowa and Wisconsin. Stan noted that he believed the Wisconsin move was as much public money as wise guy money and he said the line would drop back down on Saturday as the Sharp outfits would buy Iowa at +3. Iowa did drop down and Iowa did get the money. This week Stan says this move is for real as after last week the public won't want Michigan St they will now believe that Iowa is for real. After all, the Public just lost their money going against Iowa by betting Wisconsin last week. Earlier this year Wisconsin went into Michigan St and beat Michigan St 38-30. So how can Michigan St beat Iowa if they couldn't beat Wisconsin. Stan says RESPECT this Move this Week Michigan St money is for real.
TCU @ BYU
TCU Opened Pick now -2.5
In what may be one of the best games of the weekend the Sharps wasted no time in taking a position on this game. When a game of this magnitude ( Both in Top 25) gets bet on Monday and Tuesday you have to take notice of what is going on. They bet TCU hard right up to -2.5. TCU is a team that is good that the public doesn't know a lot about because they don't get to see them. Stan says that this looks like the Wise Guys making a definitive stand on the TCU side and says you should respect this move.
Clemson @ Miami-Fl
Clemson Opened +7 now +5
Stan notes that the Wise Guys jumped on Clemson right away as the thought of getting a full TD was too good to pass up. Looking at the game closer Clemson is 3-3 with their 3 losses coming by a total of 10 points. So why wouldn't they take the Dog plus a TD. If this line continues to creep down to 4.5 or 4 The Sharps will buy this game back and take Miami-Fl on the Weekend looking for a live middle situation based on the closeness of Clemson's games. But generally speaking Stan notes that early money on the Dog is usually the real deal.
Wake Forest @ Navy
Navy Opened -1 & -1.5 now -3
Stan notes that this move is a move where the public will jump on and follow the steam. Navy scored 38 last week while Wake Forest scored 3 so the public will love Navy in a pick the winner situation. The sharps buy Navy at -1 and the line goes up then the public jumps on to piggy back the so called steam and this line hits 3 maybe even 3.5 late in the week. When that happens the sharps will be back only this time buying the dog for value. Stan says this move is not true steam but more of a position play that will be created by the public.