TRUE STEAM for NCAAFB Week 7 & NFL Week 6

TRUE STEAM for NCAAFB Week 7 & NFL Week 6
by Vegas-Runner

We are now over 1/4 of the way through the Football Season, and this is when the Wiseguys usually kick it into gear...They now have more than enough data to really sharpen their Power Ratings, but the Oddsmakers also have plenty to work with as well. This is why we will begin to see less and less "TRUE STEAM" in those initial 24hrs after the sportsbooks release the odds for the following week's games...

The reason for this is that the Power Ratings of BOTH, the Oddsmakers & the Wiseguys will definitely begin to resemble each others more and more...and therefore, we will begin seeing more "Moves" after these Betting Syndicates have had time to work on the individual match-ups...Because as I've said in the past, those initial "Steam Moves" are based almost entirely on the fact that the Betting Syndicates numbers differ from what the Oddsmakers sent out...and ultimately, what the books offer...

With that said, the Wiseguys will continue to have the advantage...because the "Betting Line" offered by the books, must take into account for "Public Perception"...and is also set to try and encourage more 2-way action from the bettors...To do this, sometimes they have to adjust a number...even though they know it may not truely reflect what their "Power Ratings" dictate...And this is why, although the Oddsmakers & Bookmakers always have to take into account what the Syndicates may be looking for...many times, they are forced to allow them to get the best of it...Which is why they continue to beat the books year in and year out...

Finally, as we move forward...I will attempt to pass along those "Steam Moves" which my own numbers support the most...Because although we've used the last few Blogs to focus on the bigger moves from these Outfits...along with those that allow me to best explain some of the reasoning that goes into these bets...I also believe that we should try to peg down some winners as well...So with that, let's move on to some of the upcoming week's "TRUE STEAM"...

NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for Week of 10-17-09

1.) NORTHEWESTERN opened +13.5....Now +12

This is one of those games that the books really have a hard time putting a line up for...and are always holding their breaths when they do, to see just how wrong they may be...and how much it will cost them...Because when there is an injury to a "Key Player", the books have no clue how the Wiseguys will approach it...And in this case, with MSU QB Kirk Cousins (Probable) not 100%, the sportsbooks didn't offer a line until early this morning...And when they did, the Outfits let them know immediately that they opened it too high...The Syndicates took +13.5 right away, which scared many books into moving it an entire 1.5 pts right away, like Pinny did...While others who chose to drop it a 1/2 Pt at a time like CRIS, were bet into, again at +13...Since then, we are looking at 12 or 12.5 all across the board...My Line Prediction : Word is Cousins will be ok to play, but I also hear that they Wiseguys may not be done...So I expect this line to dip down even a bit lower, before being pushed up some on game-day by the Public, who is expected to come in on MSU...VR

2.) WISCONSIN opened PK....Now -2

This is another perfect example of why you have to have solid sources if you are attempting to make money following "Steam"...Because when CRIS opened up IOWA at Pk, the Wiseguys immediately tossed some money down on IOWA...That forced books like Pinny who opened a bit later, to actually make IOWA -1...and we saw CRIS move to -1.5...And until this morning, you would have been made to believe that the Syndicates were backing IOWA...But then, like they've done so many times before...they threw a curve-ball at the books, by sending out all kind of "Buy Orders" on WISC...They ended up buying all the +1.5, +1, & PK that they could find...And because the books initially thought that the Outfits were on the other side...they were slow to react, and these Syndicates got plenty of money down on WISC...Which was the plan from the start...My take is that they will now have the benefit of being able to get BOTH sides as DOGS...Which I've explained many times before, as something they love to do...But with that said, I can also tell you that their "TRUE POSITION" when all the dust settles will ultimately be on WISC...My Line Prediction : We will see a small "Middle" attempt later in the week, or even sooner if they come to the conclusion that the Public will take IOWA...This line move will make it hard to know what the Outfits are truely on...which has always been their goal...But you can be sure that they will be cheering in WISC on Saturday...VR

3.) PENN ST opened -14.5....Now -16.5/-17

This is a very significant move and I'll explain why...The sportsbooks are expecting MIN action from what I've been told...So when they got the send-out from the Oddsmakers, I expected them to offer it lower than it should actually be...which they did...But I also give them credit for opening it up over 2 TD's at -14.5...as a way of possibly keeping the Wiseguys away...But within the 1st hour of offering the line to the bettors, they found out that the Outfits still felt there was plenty of value in backing PSU...Those books who opened right after CRIS, put it out at -15...and that's when the Wiseguys tipped their hand, and began buying up all the PSU they could find...They bet them at -14.5, -15, -15.5, & -16...Which forced books here in Vegas, who open up on Monday's for the following week's football action, to put the line up at -17...And that's where it's at now, while some books fearing the "Middle" attempt, chose to leave it at -16.5...Line Prediction : With the public expected to be on MIN Saturday, I don't think the Outfits will get a chance at a "Middle" unless they are the one's who force the books to go higher...Which I don't see happening, since they already got plenty down...This means we should see the books try to keep it below 17, and hope the pubic helps them balance and limit their liability on the game...VR

4.) OKLAHOMA ST opened -6.5....Now -7/-7.5

Here is one of those moves that many overlook because it's only a 1/2pt or 1pt move...figuring, how significant can it truely be ?? Well, it all depends on the "number" that is being moved, much more than how much it moves...For example, there are no 2 numbers that the sportsbooks try to be on the right side of more than..."3 & 7"...Because those are the 2 margins that most games end by, so when the books decide to move "on or off" those "key numbers"...we have to take notice...And this is no exception, especially since the books expect the betting public to come in on the Dog, MIZZOU...And these moves are extremely telling because rather than elect to allow the betting public to possibly come in and lower the line, ultimately allowing the Syndicates to lay less...they chose to lay the points now...And that's what they did with OK St. this morning, since there was no line offered on the game last night...The Wiseguys went ahead and bet -6.5 and even some -7...This forced many books to move to -7.5, which is where they opened it here in Vegas a little later this morning...to avoid getting "Steamed" as well...Line Prediction : With the public expected to grab the points, we should see this line settle at 7...with the vig jumping around from side to side...And because of that, many who try to pick off "Steam" would have trouble doing so because it will ultimately look like only a 1/2 pt move...But with that said, if you see this get to 8 by game-day...then you can be sure that the Wiseguys have decided to unload again...Making this an extremely "Strong Move"...VR

5.) NC STATE opened +4...Now +2.5

This is definitely a bet that the Wiseguys couldn't wait to unload on...because they wasted absolutely no time at all getting down as much money as they could on NC State, before the books adjusted drastically...Once again the Outfits forced the books to adjust through a "key number"...something that takes plenty of money to do, and something they don't like doing...But in this case, according to the Wiseguys...the number was just wrong...And when CRIS opened it at 4, the Outfits didn't fear tipping their hand to the other books...which tells me that they had plans to take a lot less than +4 and be happy with it...So when the other offshore books finally opened for next week's business, and put the line at 3, thinking they were safe...Once again the Wiseguys showed them by sending out another "Buy Order", that the line was still too high...And the Syndicates took NC St at +3 also...forcing the adjustment down to 2.5...That is where the books here in Vegas opened this game, and by doing so, were able to avoid getting "Steamed" as well...Line Prediction : This sets up a perfect middle opportunity, but to do so, I believe that it will have to come early in the week...Because the betting public is expected to bet B COLL on Saturday, which would probably move it back to 3, eliminating that perfect middle...So we may see the Wiseguys be the reason for this to get back up to 3, well before the weekend gets here, and the public begins betting it...VR

NFL "TRUE STEAM" for Week of 10-18-09

1.) UNDER PHI/OAK 41.5....Now 40.5

Once again we have a move which isn't that big...but a closer look at the number/s involved tells us bettors that it actually is...Because just as there are "key numbers" for "Sides"...there are also "key numbers" for "Totals"...and "41" is one of them...So when an adjustment is made that goes through this "key total", we have to pay attention...And I feel that this is a big move because the books believe they will get plenty of OVER money from the betting public on Sunday...And since this game is played in Oak, not Philly...we can be pretty sure that the Wiseguys didn't make it in expectation of poor weather...And for them not to wait and allow the bettors to drive this Total up to "42" or even higher...which would truly add even more value to their bet...it tells us that we can also be sure that the Total they made for this game is much lower than what the oddsmakers thought it should be...So as soon as the off-shore books put up this Total for next week's game, the Outfits went to work betting the UNDER...And they were able to hit ALL of the offshore books who simultaneously, opened the Total at 41.5...Because it was around the "key total" of 41, the books were cautious and moved the line a 1/2 pt at a time...And all that did was allow the Wiseguys to get even more money down on the UNDER...Until they finally adjusted down to 40.5, where we've seen Vegas open this number here this morning...Line Prediction : If we see this get below 40, then you can be sure that the Wiseguys absolutely love this bet...But I don't think that will happen because as I said, the books are expecting plenty of Over money from the public on Sunday...Which is why we will probably see this go off at 41...Which once again, would hide the fact of just how big of a "Steam Play" that this truly is.

I apologize if I am not allowed to post here Blade but I too study steam moves (actually the only way I place my bets), and I just wanted to add a few more to the mix. Tulane started at +20 and even +21 in some places and is down to 17 across the board. Nebraska began at -7 in most books and quickly jumped to as high as 11! Rice began at +20 and quickly moved to +18. Kent started at -4 and was at 6.5 almost immediately after opening.

Those are some pretty good moves guys, of course along with what Blade gave you. I know the sharps were 7-0 in the NFL this week. I hope the same for this saturday!

Post or comment any where you want istipa1 8)

I have noticed that steam can be very streaky at times, like you said it was 7-0 last week and very well could be 0-7 this week. When I was in Vegas it was always good to know who was behind the move since you could follow who was hot and cold.

Yes. Definitely. The way I look at it, the "wise guys" know 3 times the information we ever will so I am always putting my money where they put it! ha 😉

Inside the Steam - Week of Oct 13th
by Stan Sharp

Iowa @ Wisconsin

Wisconsin Opened pick now -2.5

This line actually Opened at Iowa (-1.5) at one of the Vegas Casinos but Cris opened it at a Pick and it was bet to Wisconsin (-2.5) right away. So is this true steam? Stan says no and here's why. The sharps know that the betting public loves to take home teams in a pick the Winner situation. With that said the sharps grab the Home team right away to secure the best number knowing that as the week progresses the public will follow what looks like a steam move and continue to bet the home team. This line will hit 3 by Saturday and once it does the sharps will buy back the dog here. Stan notes the public will bet Wisconsin because they look and say Iowa had two close games only beating Michigan by 2 points. It must be noted that Iowa was down 7-0 right away last week as they threw a Int that was returned for a TD in the first minute of the game. Stan also notes that Michigan changed QB's in the second half and the back up QB who Iowa hadn't prepared for scored a late TD to make it a 2 point final. Iowa's game wasn't as close as the score would indicate. Lastly because everyone saw Wisconsin play Ohio St tough last week they naturally expect them to bounce back at home. Public will push this line up and the Wise Guys will bet Iowa late is how Stan sees this game. This is not a Steam Move but a position play. Stan says he has to respect that the Vegas Casinos opened the game with Iowa as favorite.

Central Michigan @ Western Michigan

Western Michigan Opened +7.5 now +6.5

Stan notes that this move came in early as the sharps wanted Western Michigan (+7.5) right away. Stan believes this to be true steam as last saturday when the public was all over Toledo against W. Michigan the Vegas Casinos got hit hard with W. Michigan money on Saturday late dropping the line to +7 after the line had reached 8.5 and 9 with all the Toledo money. W. Michigan won 58-26. Stan says the Wise Guys wanted this number and bet it now not taking a chance of waiting and have number drop to 7 and lose value. This is a True Steam Move as they got the number they wanted and anyone wanting to piggy back the move lost all value with this line sitting under a TD.

Kent @ Eastern Michigan

Kent Opened -3.5 now -6.5

Stan notes that for the second week in a row the Wise Guys hit Kent hard and they did it early. Last Week they bet them early against Bowling Green and got the money and they have done it again this week. Stan feels that the Wise Guy believe that Vegas is way off on this team and thus they are taking advantage of it before Vegas adjusts their weak numbers. Stan says the move on Kent is True Steam.

Kansas City @ Washington

Washington Opened -5 now -6.5

Cris opened this line at Washington -5 and had it immediately go to -6.5. Vegas was ahead of the curve as they brought this number out at -6.5 as Stan feels that this is the right number. Stan says that the early positioning of Washington money has to be respected because after last weeks results the public would bet Kansas City coming off the overtime loss to Dallas. No one should want Washington after all they just lost to winless Carolina. With all that said the Wise Guys didn't wait they grabbed Washington not taking a chance of waiting and possibly have the line hit 7. The Wise Guys wanted Washington and they got them. This is True Steam.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts

One of the most popular wagers at Las Vegas Sports Books is the weekly football parlay cards because it appeals to everyone with its simplicity. Sometimes folks from out of town, or who don’t wager very often, get intimidated when they go to the counter for fear that they’ll call out their bets wrong.

The advent of the parlay card made it simple and easy for anyone to confidently fill out their card properly with numbers listed on each team and easy bubbles to color in associated with the team liked. The added revenue for books was immense just because of being able to extract continued bets from clientele that otherwise might not be there.

The cards have also attracted action from a few sharp groups which has made things tougher for the books to combat. No matter when the books offer their cards to the public, usually ranging from Wednesday to Friday, there inevitably are going to be old numbers on the card that stay the same throughout the week while the games on the board move with all the straight bets.

If a better can lay a few -2.5’s or -6.5’s on a card when the line has jumped over 3 or 7 on the board, that is a huge edge and makes the value of the immoveable set odds and payouts on the card much more attractive than any bet offered by the book.

The sharp groups know this too, and one in particular, has made some serious cash over the last six years just playing parlay cards. This particular group just doesn’t bet the line moves, they have a serious program that usually has their numbers right before the line moves come.

Two weeks ago when many of the NFL favorites came in, the books took a beating on the parlay cards with many coming from this one group. They hit quite a few books with 10-team parlays all across the city at odds of 800/1 or higher with wagers ranging from $40 to $50 each.

“Our cards have become attractive because we offer higher odds than some,” said Stratosphere Director of Race and Sports Ed Malinowski. “We also offer them early on Wednesday so the Las Vegas local clientele at all our books can get in early jump on the games.“

“Two weeks ago we got hit on a $50 10-team parlay at odds of 850 to 1 and I know a few other books did too. Most of the games on the card were moves from the week not laying any bad numbers.”

When the books set the point spreads for the cards, they have to try and forecast somewhat where the line will go in particular to games sitting around the key numbers to avoid being off to much.

This week there are five games sitting around “3”, two sitting just below “10”, one just below “7”, and three hanging around “14”. For the books, they have to decide which way to go using a half number. If it’s the wrong decision, it could be drastic by Sunday.

Because of the tactics that these groups use in an attempt to get all their desired cards in, some books have combated the sharps strategies with their own. The value of old numbers is such a great advantage for the player that some groups get greedy and try to trick the books with mass strategies.

Known players of these groups will be asked to play a limited amount of cards, but generally they always get greedy and do things like send in old lady’s with the same games on the cards, or another scheme has been to send in beautiful young women with hopes that the salivating supervisor will lose focus of what games this group is playing for the sake of conversing with her.

Once they cross the line and go against the requests of the book to maximize their cards throughout the city, the books only recourse is to ask them not to play there any more. When that happens, then there is a whole new wave of players infiltrating and the game goes on and on with those players as the book builds a profile on the new players.

Other ways to stop these players from their mass-card wagers is for the book to put a limit of a small amount on all the key games these players are focusing on which takes approval if a player wants to bet higher. It doesn’t take long for the players to find out what that limit is. If it’s set at $20, all of a sudden a beautiful girl comes in with a stack of cards for $19 each with all the moves on them.

Parlay Cards will always have their place in Las Vegas just because they are so much a part of that cross-over clientele. The sharps who get booted for their scheming say the books want only suckers to play those cards, which is far off.

The books just don’t want to be beaten down unethically by the people who have been warned and told how the rules and parameters of the game work. No one has the right to be in a casino and everyone has to follow the rules. Cards with old numbers and sharps going over board to pop the book is no different than a guy using a pen and paper to chart all the face cards while playing black jack.

NFL Line Moves: Lines Courtesy of Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook

Bengals opened a home -3.5 point favorite and is up to the dead number of -5.5 against the Texans.

Broncos opened as an underdog again at +4.5 for their Monday Night game at San Diego and it has been pushed down to +3.5. It’s the first time all season that the Broncos have been bet on which usually means the they’ll be a good bet against with so much weight and opinion on their side.

All the key numbers have been bet from other than a few huge -14 point favorites. The only action among those 3 two-touchdown favorites has been bets on Detroit at Green Bay despite Calvin Johnson possibly not playing.

# Bills money knocked the Jets off of -10 to -9.5.
# Viking got some money laying only -2.5 pushing it to -3 even.
# Tampa Bay found some takers as a home dog at +3.5 against the Panthers pushing the number to +3 even.
# Saints opened up a -3 -120 favorite and found a few takers pushing it to -3 -125, an obvious sign the books don’t want to get off “3” in what will be a huge betting game.
# Seahawks laying only -2.5 at home against the Cardinals found takers and the number is now -3 even.
# The Falcons at home laying -3 flat to the Bears got some attention and bumped it to -3 -125 in what will be another large wagered upon game since it’s the Sunday night get-back game. Depending on how the books do on Sunday, this game should eventually find its way to -4.

College Football Moves: Lines Courtesy of Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook

The college lines were jumping early and often on Monday shortly after all the lines came out and then again early Tuesday morning, the first times this year that so many plays came that early.

# Ball State opened +4.5 and is now +2.5 at home against Bowling Green
# Wisconsin opened a small -1.5 favorite at home against undefeated Iowa and has been bet up to -3.
# Georgia opened -7.5 on the road at Vanderbilt and is now -9.5.
# Tulane was getting +19 at home to Houston and it now sits at +16. Last week the largest bet against of the week by the sharps was Houston at Miss State which didn’t get there.
# Nebraska opened a home favorite of -7 against Texas Tech and it’s currently -10.5.
# Rice getting +20 on the road at East Carolina has been bumped to +17.5.
# Akron getting +10 early at Buffalo is no longer there sitting currently at +7.5.
# TCU opened -20 at home against Colorado State and has been bet up to -23.5.
# Louisiana Tech opened a -17.5 home favorite to New Mexico State and has been pushed to -20.5 in what may be a let down game for the Aggies after a big upset against Utah State last week.
# Kent State opened a -4 point road favorite at Eastern Michigan and is currently -7 in what is another odd large move in the MAC conference.
# Connecticut opened -11 at home against Louisville and is currently -14.
# Navy opened -7 on the road at SMU and is at -9.
# Arizona State opened -4 for its night game in Tempe against Washington and is currently -6.5.

Line Moves in the NFL - Week 6
By Judd Hall

Last week was the first time in a while that we saw a glut of favorites in the NFL of nine-points or higher…five of them, to be exact. The lines were put out that high because there is a more noticeable talent gap this season.

What’s even more surprising than the heavy “chalk” was the fact that they went 4-1 straight up and against the spread. The only loser was Baltimore, who was listed as a 9 ½-point home favorite against the Bengals.

There isn’t any signs of these big numbers going away at the moment as there are six tilts this Sunday that have favorites of at least nine points.

Jason Johnson isn’t surprised to see these numbers to stay on the high side. “I think that just like last week, there is a good reason to see these large spreads. It's important to remember that the oddsmakers are trying to get two-way action and that the line doesn't necessarily indicate what oddsmakers expect the final score to be. Some teams are simply much better than others and these spreads are showing it. I expect some of these numbers to grown by game time.”

Of course, those lines could be easily attributed to the quality of talent on the teams and gives you a greater chance of cashing in at the betting shops. Chip Chirimbes explains, “Nine points in the NFL is a 'monster' to beat and I have always looked to take that many points. The problem with this years NFL teams is that there are that many bad teams. St. Louis (0-5) can't score, Oakland (1-4) has a win but are one of the worst teams in years. Tampa Bay (0-5) has a new coach and rookie quarterback and has NO defense to stop anybody. Kansas City (0-5) has been terrible for a number of seasons now and the Cleveland Browns (1-4) have no offense scoring only 11 points per game. Now those are teams that we should probably 'play against' and that brings up to Tennessee (0-5) a team that won their first 10 games last year and now after five games they are winless. “

“Throw into the mix the Giants (5-0), Vikings (5-0), Colts (5-0) and Saints (4-0) and the upstart Broncos at 5-0 means that there will be plenty of 'high' priced games. I like it better when there is a vast difference between the best and the worst teams. It brings more opportunity for handicappers to take advantage on either side of games that might surprise you.”

We’re not seeing any of those perfect storms like we saw last week with the G-men taking on Oakland. Being unblemished won’t matter this week as some two-loss and three-loss clubs are favored by 9 ½-points or more.

The biggest spread on the board is between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The Steelers may only be 3-2 this year, but are 15-point home favorites against the Browns. There really shouldn’t be any shockers about this line since the Cleveland is has been garbage this year on the attack like Chirimbes previously mentioned. And the Steelers average 375.8 yards per game on offense.

One game that has confused a few folks here in the office and out there around the office water coolers is Jacksonville hosting the hapless Rams. The Jaguars were just crushed by Seattle 41-0 last Sunday. Jacksonville was initially listed as a 13-point home “chalk” by Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, breaks down how this line for us. “As bad as the Jags are the Rams are worst - especially in Jacksonville were the home team is expected to step their game up. Minus-11 was the opening line Monday morning without knowing the status of Rams QB Marc Bulger. By Monday afternoon Marc Bulger's status was upgraded from unknown to probable, since then the market has slowly dropped the Jags to currently under 10 points.”

Scott continues, “This game falls into the exact same category as the Titans game. Jags -9 will be as low as we go and -10 will be the top number, as long as Bulger's status stays this way these are the parameter we are working with.”

Regardless of whether we think these lines might be a little bigger than needed, they’re going to be around for a while. Scott explains what we should expect. “It's hard to believe these really bad teams we are seeing now will turn it around. Browns, Rams, Raiders in almost every situation these teams should be double digit underdogs all season against Top 10 teams. Near the end of the regular season is when certain situations will come up where these teams will receive lower than usual odds. Not out of respect, but more of a situation adjustment. That time of year the top teams are looking past these bad teams and into the playoffs, coaches will rest their top players and then; we'll have a whole new match-up to set odds for.”

Something else we saw from the sportsbooks last week was how they tried to even out the action on the Titans-Colts. Indianapolis was getting hammered as a 3 ½-point road favorite to the point that the betting shops moved the number to four on Sunday to no avail. The Titans were killed 31-9 and bettors were wiser for backing the “chalk.”

Randy Scott helps us understand where the sportsbooks are coming from when lines are moving like that at the last moment. “There are key numbers books can bounce off and on to easily balance one-way action, but it comes at a price that most books try to avoid. This week's Titans’ match between the Patriots, we are currently using -9.5. We can also use -9 and -10 depending on the direction of the early action. If the action gets out of hand one way or the other the key numbers we could use to create almost instant take back action is either -8.5 or -10.5. It will have to take an incredible amount of one-way action on either team to get to those lines. Books live with lop sided decisions all the time; it's just a matter of a risk comfort zone for each sportsbook.”