Miami (Ohio) RedHawks vs. Buffalo Bulls
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 8½-point favorites versus the RedHawks, while the game's total is sitting at 52½.
Clay Belton was 18-of-31 for 171 yards and a touchdown for Miami of Ohio as they lost 54-21 to Kent State in Week 9.
The RedHawks failed to cover the 4-point spread, while the combined score played OVER the day's posted total of 46.5.
James Starks ran for 185 yards on 30 carries with two touchdowns to lead Buffalo over Ohio 32-19 in Week 10.
Buffalo covered as 2.5-point road underdogs as the teams played over the 50.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Buffalo has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Miami (Ohio): 2-6 SU, 3-4 ATS
Buffalo: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Miami (Ohio) most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Miami (Ohio) is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 9 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Next up:
Miami (Ohio) home to Ball State, Tuesday, November 11
Buffalo at Akron, Thursday, November 13
What bettors need to know: Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo
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Game: Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (2-6, 3-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bulls (4-4, 5-3 ATS)
Odds: Buffalo opened as a 7.5-point home favorite for Tuesday's game.
While the nation waits...
This is when you separate the casual bettors from the true degenerate sports gamblers.
The entire eyes of the planet will be locked on the U.S. election results Tuesday night. But for those tired of watching poll updates and CNN commentary, ESPN2 presents this dandy of a MAC East matchup.
It so happens to be the University of Buffalo's first nationally televised home game. Bulls head coach Turner Gill is very excited for the program and the school, but is wary about the media attention (or what's left over) distracting his players.
"We let (the players) know what it's going to be like, seem like and feel like," Gill told campus paper The Spectrum. "I can't cover every single thing that's going to happen or not happen in that situation, but I try to cover as many things as possible so it's not something that's totally a surprise, per se. You're going to have a few more interviews, a few more commercial delays. We talk about all those things so they're aware of it."
Gill is approaching this game as any other and attempting to swing the focus of his team towards the fact that this contest holds major conference implications rather than a chance to get some face time. After defeating Ohio 32-19 last Tuesday, Buffalo is currently tied with the Akron Zips atop the MAC East standings.
History-making night
The country could witness a major historic event Tuesday night. No, not the election. We're talking about the Bulls getting their first win ever against the Redhawks. Miami (Ohio) has won the previous 10 meeting with Buffalo, nine of those as members of the MAC.
Last year, a freak snowstorm pushed their game back a day. Redhawks quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh passed for almost 260 yards and two touchdowns and the defense held off a second-half push from the Bulls to win 31-28.
This year, Raudabaugh will watch from the sideline after being benched by coach Shane Montgomery in favor of red-shirt freshman Clay Belton. Raudabaugh got the hook last week after failing to pass for a touchdown since the third quarter of the loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats Sept. 20.
Belton led the team to a win against the Bowling Green Falcons Week 8 and passed for 171 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a squashing of the Kent State Golden Flashes last weekend.
Regardless of who's behind center, the Miami (Ohio) offense is sputtering. It's second last in the conference in scoring with an average of 18.5 points per game and total offense, putting up just 320 yards a contest.
Bulls try to turn up turnovers
Buffalo is already tops in the MAC in turnover margin, eating up 12 fumbles and snatching six picks while coughing the ball up just nine times this season. They're also second in the country in forced fumbles with 16, including four against the Ohio Bobcats last week.
But that's not enough for coach Gill, who is now dedicating a chunk of practice to honing the craft of stealing the ball like a gang of ole' English ragamuffins.
"We have a five minute period where we have guys strip the football and punch it out," Gill told reporters. "They do it constantly. It becomes a natural habit out in the football game where you go right for the football. That's something ingrained in our guys on a daily basis."
Miami (Ohio) could be the perfect patsy. It has turned the ball over 18 times this season, 10 of those fumbles. The Redhawks fumbled seven times, lost four of them and threw two interceptions in a 54-21 loss to Kent State, giving the Golden Flashes 31 points off turnovers – 21 of those in the second quarter.
Redhawks' rest helps return roster
Miami (Ohio) has had 10 days to put that crushing homecoming defeat to the Golden Flashes behind them. The extended rest has also allow them to get back major parts of their team.
Running back Thomas Merriweather is expected to play Tuesday after missing last week's game with an ankle injury. The sophomore is one of the few offensive threats for the Redhawks, leading the team in rushing yards and touchdowns.
"He was held out of practice Tuesday, and then I practiced him some (Thursday)," Montgomery told the Oxford Press. "I would expect to have Thomas. How much he plays and how we use him we probably won't find out until later when we get closer to the game."
The offensive and defensive lines will also get bodies back with senior tackle Dave DiFranco (ankle) and sophomore guard Bob Gulley (elbow) likely to return. Sophomore defensive end D.J. Svabik is questionable (ankle), sophomore tackle Sean Redwine and junior nose tackle Martin Channels, who played limited minutes against KSU, are expected to return to the field. Tight end Tom Crabtree, who was injured last week, is also expected to play.
Running of the Bulls
Buffalo's rushing attack is coming together just in time for a push at the MAC title. After stalling for most of the season, the Bulls broke loose for 277 yards on the ground against the Bobcats last Tuesday.
The biggest reason for the extra pep in the step is the improving health of leading rusher James Starks. The junior running back, who went for a season-high 185 yards versus Ohio, is getting his stride back after being slowed by injury for most of the season. He sat out the team's 27-24 nail bitter over Army, in which Buffalo collected just 41 yards on the ground. Tuesday, Starks carried the ball 30 times and rushed for two touchdowns.
Sophomore tailback Brandon Thermilus also ran up and down Ohio, collecting 73 yards and one touchdown on just 10 carries.
"That's what I was looking for, that's what we are capable of doing," Gill told The Buffalo News. "The offensive line answered the bell. Obviously James Starks made some great runs but the offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage."
The Bulls face a Miami (Ohio) run defense that has given up an average of 173 yards per game this season. It allowed a massive 305 yards rushing to Kent State last Saturday including six touchdowns on the ground.
Miami (Ohio) (2-6, 3-4 ATS) at Buffalo (4-4, 5-3 ATS)
Buffalo is in the national spotlight on a Tuesday for the second consecutive week, this time serving as host when it welcomes Miami (Ohio) for a Mid-American Conference clash in the first-ever nationally televised game from UB Stadium.
The Bulls traveled to Ohio a week ago and led from start to finish in a 32-19 rout of Ohio as a 1½-point road underdog. Buffalo, which has followed a three-game losing skid with back-to-back wins, took a 24-7 halftime lead and cruised from there thanks to a rushing attack that churned out 277 yards, including 6 yards per carry. However, the Bulls got outgained for the fifth straight game, finishing with 393 yards while allowing 417.
Miami (Ohio) has been idle since Oct. 25, when it lost 54-21 to Kent State despite being a 3½-point home chalk. The Redhawks produced just 318 total yards (147 rushing) while giving up 468 (305 rushing). They’re now 1-8 SU in their last nine games against Division I-A foes and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 lined contests dating to 2007.
The Redhawks are 10-0 all-time against Buffalo, with the average margin of victory being 25 points per game (37-12). Last Year, Miami (Ohio) held on for a 31-28 home win, but the Bulls got the cash as a 6½-point underdog. In fact, Buffalo has cashed in three of the last four meetings, including the last two in a row. Finally, the host is on a 4-1 ATS roll in this series.
In addition to its ongoing 3-8 ATS slump overall, Miami is in ATS funks of 2-7 in MAC play, 0-4 in November and 1-7 when playing on grass, but the Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 on the road and 3-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog. Meanwhile, Buffalo is on ATS streaks of 10-2 against losing teams, 5-2 in November, 7-3 in conference play and 4-0 after a SU win, but the Bulls have failed to cash in four of their last five home games.
The under is 7-2 in Miami’s last nine road trips and 4-1 in its last five MAC contests. However, the over for Buffalo is on streaks of 3-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-1 in MAC action and 4-1 on grass. Also, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
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Tips and Trends
Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo
Miami: The RedHawks have had 10 days off since their last game against Kent State, which resulted in a disappointing 54-21 loss. Miami gave up the ball six times - all leading to points for the opposition - and now ranks last in the conference and 106th nationally with a -8 turnover margin. That might be a deciding factor against Buffalo again here, as Bulls QB Drew Willy has only four interceptions in 234 attempts so far this season, which is half the total of Miami QBs.
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 conference games.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Miami's last 9 road games.
Key Injuries - RB Thomas Merriweather (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21
Buffalo (-9, O/U 52): The Bulls believe they have a shot at going to a bowl game this year and obviously need to keep winning in order to reach that goal. They are tied with Akron at 2-2 atop the MAC's East Division and got even stronger last week with the return of RB James Starks, who rushed for a season-high 185 yards and two touchdowns in a 32-19 victory at Ohio. Starks had missed the previous game against Army with a turf toe injury.
Buffalo is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games.
Key Injuries - LB Tom Drewes (knee) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 31
MIAMI (OHIO) vs. BUFFALO
Miami (Ohio) is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Miami (Ohio) is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Miami (OH) at Buffalo
Miami (OH): 0-7 ATS if 60+ points were scored last game
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS off a SU win
MIAMI OHIO (2 - 6) at BUFFALO (4 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Miami (OH) at Buffalo
Miami won its last five games vs Buffalo, winning last two by identical 31-28 scores, but Red Hawks are 1-6 vs D-I opponents, losing 54-21 at home to Kent in their last game. Miami is 3-1 vs spread as road dog this season, with losses by 10-25-4 points, and win at Bowling Green. Bulls are 3-1 at home this season, beating UTEP 42-17, Temple 30-28 (on Hail Mary on last play of game), Army 27-24 (in OT) and losing 34-28 in OT to Western Michigan-- all four of their home games went over the total. Buffalo is 4-4, has shot at rare winning record, which likely could cost them their coach, former Nebraska QB Turner Gill.