Ball State Cardinals vs. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
- The fans at Fred C Yager Stadium will be treated to a game between the Ball State Cardinals and the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks when they take their seats on Tuesday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 19½-point favorites versus the RedHawks, while the game's total is sitting at 54½.
Nate Davis threw four TD passes and ran for another as Ball State defeated Northern Illinois 45-14 in Week 11. Ball State easily covered the 9.5-point spread, and the 59 points made it OVER the posted total of 47.
Davis completed 18-of-22 for 300 yards, and Darius Hill caught two touchdown passes in the win.
The RedHawks suffered their first loss to the Bulls in 11 meetings with a 37-17 defeat in Buffalo last Tuesday night.
Buffalo covered the 8-point spread set by oddsmakers and the final score played over the 50.5-point total.
Current streak:
Ball State has won 9 straight games.
Miami (Ohio) has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Ball State: 9-0 SU, 7-1 ATS
Miami (Ohio): 2-7 SU, 3-5 ATS
Ball State most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1
Miami (Ohio) most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ball State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Ball State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Ball State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ball State
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami (Ohio) is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami (Ohio) is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Next up:
Ball State at Central Michigan, Wednesday, November 19
Miami (Ohio) at Toledo, Friday, November 21
Ball State at Miami (Ohio)
Ball State (-17.5, O/U 54.5): The Cardinals are looking to start 10-0 for the first time in school history and continue their climb up the BCS rankings. Ball State has moved up to #14 in the BCS and remains one of five unbeaten teams in the country. "Everybody talks about going undefeated, but we just talk about trying to make every play that we can," Ball State QB Nate Davis said. "The biggest thing is we’ve got to keep our heads straight." Davis set the school record for career completions in a 45-14 rout of Northern Illinois last Wednesday.
Ball State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Ball State is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games.
Key Injuries - WR Dante Love (back) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 38 (Side Play of the Day)
Miami: The RedHawks topped Ball State 14-13 in last year's season opener but have dropped the last two meetings at Oxford. They are coming off a 37-17 loss at Buffalo last Tuesday, surrendering a season-high 476 yards to the Bulls. Miami has been outscored 91-38 in its last two games and faces a tough task here in trying to stop the Cardinals, who are averaging 38.3 points and 458.4 yards per game.
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 conference games.
The OVER is 8-3 in Miami's last 11 November games.
Key Injuries - RB J.R. Taylor (concussion) is questionable.
DB Jeff Thompson (knee) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17
BALL ST (9 - 0) at MIAMI OHIO (2 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Ball State at Miami (OH)
Ball State: 14-3 ATS in road games
Miami (OH): 1-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points
BALL STATE vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Ball State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami (Ohio) is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ball State
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
What bettors need to know for Ball State at Miami-Ohio
By JASON LOGAN
The Line
Some books opened this line with Ball State set as low as -15.5, but it's since moved up to 17 or 17.5 at most betting shops. The early total is 54.5.
Ball State turning up intensity
After picking up their ninth straight win, the Cardinals are beginning to slip into BCS conversations. Ball State could be a dark horse selection for either the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl if Boise State and Utah fall out of favor.
With that in mind, the Cards' defense has turned the dial up to BCS wattage. They've allowed an average of 302.6 yards and 11.4 points over their last five games, including an impressive effort against Northern Illinois last week.
Ball State gave up 14 points on 275 total yards with just 62 of those yards in the first half. It collected two sacks and picked off one pass in the 45-14 victory as an 8-point favorite. However, Cardinals coach Brady Hoke is still asking for more from his team knowing that bowl season will demand a better performance.
"The 275 yards and 14 points, those would be acceptable, but if we want to win a championship those aren't acceptable," Hoke told the Star-Press.
"I'm pretty demanding on how I think the game should be played,” he said.
The most the team has allowed over the last five contests is 20 points to Kent State Sept. 27. The Cardinals’ most impressive stand was a 31-0 shutout of Toledo Week 6 in which they gave up just 157 total yards to the Rockets.
Injured QB a blessing for Redhawks?
Everyone gasps when the starting quarterback goes down with an injury. But in the case of Miami-Ohio, an injury to freshman QB Clay Belton may be for the better with Ball State waiting on the schedule.
Belton left in the fourth quarter of the Redhawks’ loss to Buffalo last week and is out for this Tuesday's tilt with an undisclosed upper body injury. That puts the ball in the hands of junior Daniel Raudabaugh, who leads the team in passing with over 1,200 yards.
Miami head coach Shane Montgomery told reporters that having an upperclassman behind center against the Cardinals defense is a smarter decision.
"He doesn't make many mental mistakes," Montgomery told the Oxford Press. "It's good, with Clay going down, to have a guy who's played a lot.”
Raudabaugh started the first six games of the season but completed more passes to defenders than to teammates. He's thrown for four touchdowns and five interceptions. He came in versus the Bulls when Belton went down, passing for 63 yards on 8-for-14 completions.
Belton has compiled 639 yards through the air with two touchdowns and three picks. The freshman took a hard shot in the ribs during last Tuesday's game and was nursing a banged-up shoulder heading in. Sophomore Mike Scherpenberg will be the backup Tuesday night.
The Redhawks have the ninth-ranked passing offense in the MAC and have found the end zone just six times through the air this season.
Johnson stepping up for Cards
A spinal injury to Ball State receiver Dante Love was one of the scariest moments of the college football season. The senior was carted off the field against Indiana in Week 4 and made his first public appearance last week.
In Love's absence, fellow senior Louis Johnson has stepped up as one of the team's top weapons. He's caught 15 balls for over 300 yards – 165 of those yards coming against Northern Illinois last Wednesday. Johnson had a career day versus the Huskies adding a touchdown to his impressive stat sheet.
Johnson was Ball State's go-to guy last season. He averaged over 24 yards per catch on 17 receptions, but was bumped down to the third option this year with Love and freshman Briggs Orsbon getting regular looks.
In the past three games, Johnson has reeled in 13 receptions for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Before that he caught just five passes for 30 total receiving yards.
Redhawks setting new goals
A disappointing loss to Buffalo last week officially eliminated the Redhawks from conference title contention.
But with the 18th ranked Cardinals coming to Oxford, Coach Montgomery is treating this East vs. West MAC matchup as the team's title game.
"Most of the goals we set this year are unattainable," Montgomery admitted to reporters, "but as long as we've got some games left, we've got motivation ... We have a lot to play for (against Ball State). It's a chance to be on national TV and a chance to improve as a football team. By the time we hit the field next Tuesday we'll realize how big of a game this us."
Miami would relish the role of spoiler, taking the Cardinals out of the BCS bowl hunt. It edged Ball State with a 14-13 win last year with a rushing touchdown in the final minute of the game.
The Redhawks have won seven of the last 10 meeting straight up with a 5-5 mark against the spread.
Ball State at Miami (OH)
By Judd Hall
The Mid-American Conference once again stands front and center on ESPN2 at 7:00 pm EST this Tuesday when Ball State heads to Oxford, Ohio scuffle with the Redhawks.
Brady Hoke’s Cardinals were widely considered to be untested before taking on Northern Illinois and its tough defense as nine-point road favorites on Nov. 5. Any questions people had before that match were easily answered as Ball State flew out to a 21-0 halftime lead and never looked back, winning 45-14.
Ball State was able to consistently move the chains by picking up 25 first downs, 14 of which came through the air. That result shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone with Nate Davis connecting on 18 of 22 passes for 300 yards and four touchdowns. It’s just the second time this season that Davis competed at least 80 percent, while improving his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 19:5.
The Cardinals’ didn’t just perform well through the air; they won it on the ground as well. MiQuale Lewis was able to gain 119 yards and one score on 19 carries. Cory Sykes also contributed by rushing five times for 72 yards…46 of those yards came on a drive that ended on a failed fourth down conversion at the Huskies’ three-yard line.
Miami (OH) never could find an answer for the Bulls last Tuesday by giving up 216 yards on the ground and another 222 passing yards in its 37-17 defeat as an eight-point road ‘dog. The Redhawks were able to keep close, trailing just 21-17 in the third quarter. But four turnovers in the second half (two fumbles, two on downs) were converted into 10 points by Buffalo.
The Redhawks will be without freshman quarterback Clay Belton after injuring his left shoulder against Buffalo last week. That means junior gunslinger Daniel Raudabaugh will be under center. While this could be a big deal for many programs, Raudabaugh played in 11 games last season, completing 54.7 percent of his passes. This will be his first start against the Cards in his three years in Oxford.
Ball State has much more to lose in this game as it’s currently tied with Central Michigan in the MAC West Division. A loss here would not only drop the Cards’ a peg under the Chippewas, but they’d lose their dream of an undefeated season. Miami (OH) is finding out how the other half lives at 1-4 in league play and 2-7 overall.
The ‘Hawks may enjoy home field advantage for this matchup, but that hasn’t worked when these schools get together. The home team has gone 2-8 SU and ATS in the head-to-head series. Underdogs have fared pretty well though by posting a 6-4 mark ATS. If you fancy total plays, the ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line on this matchup with the Cardinals as 14 ½-point road favorites with a total of 54. However, that line has ballooned to 17-points with the knowledge of Belton being out of the lineup. Belton’s absence also took a toll on the money line betting as Miami (OH) was at plus-500 initially, but you can now get a plus-650 (risk $100 to win $650) return.
Shane Montgomery has only seen his Redhawks installed as home pups six other times in his four years as head coach. Yet his clubs have not flourished in this role for bettors, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS.
Ball State has gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a road “chalk” since Hoke took over the program in 2003. The Cards have gone 3-0 SU and ATS as road faves in 2008 alone with ‘under’ hitting in two of the three matches.
vegasinsider.com
(14) Ball State (9-0, 7-1 ATS) at Miami (Ohio) (2-7, 3-5 ATS)
Ball State’s quest for a perfect season and a BCS Bowl berth continues when it travels to Miami (Ohio) for Mid-American Conference clash against the slumping Redhawks.
The Cardinals had no trouble with Northern Illinois on Wednesday, rolling to a 45-14 victory as an eight-point home favorite. Ball State dominated in all phases of the victory, finishing with a 529-275 edge in total offense (219-160 in rushing) and a 25-12 advantage in first downs. All nine of the Cardinals’ wins this year have come by double digits, and they’ve outscored their last four foes by a margin of 138-37.
Miami (Ohio) went to Buffalo a week ago tonight and got spanked 37-17, falling well short as an 8½-point road underdog. The Redhawks got outgained 476-383 (216-142 on the ground) and committed the game’s only two turnovers. They’re now 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against Division I-A foes and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 lined contests dating to 2007. Also, six of Miami’s seven defeats this season have been double-digit blowouts.
The visitor has dominated this rivalry, winning six straight meetings and eight of the last 10 dating back to 1994. Also, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five clashes and 8-2 ATS in the last 10. Last season, the Redhawks went to Ball State and scored a 14-13 upset as a four-point road pup, but Ball State has prevailed in its last two trips to Miami (2-0 ATS), winning those two contests by a combined eight points.
Ball State is 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in MAC play, tied with Central Michigan in the West Division. On the other hand, Miami (Ohio) is tied for fifth in the East Division at 1-4 (2-3 ATS).
Ball State, which has outgained all nine opponents this season, is averaging 38.3 points and 458.4 total yards per game (194 rushing ypg) while giving up 15.3 points and 342.6 yards per outing (157 rushing ypg). Conversely, Miami (Ohio) has put up just 18.3 points and 327.2 total yards per game (117.1 rushing ypg) while allowing 31 points and 359 total ypg (178 rushing ypg).
The Cardinals are on a bunch of positive ATS runs, including 28-11 overall, 19-7 on the road, 9-3 against losing teams, 4-1 in MAC action, 10-3 versus losing teams and 9-3 in November. On the flip side, in addition to its ongoing 3-9 ATS slump overall, Miami is in pointspread funks of 0-6 at home, 2-8 in MAC play, 0-5 in November and 1-8 when playing on grass. The Redhawks’ only positive trend: It has cashed in 14 of its last 20 against winning teams.
The under is 5-1 in Ball State’s last six November contests, 5-1 in Miami’s last six MAC battles and 3-0 in the last three series meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE and UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Ball State faces dreaded look-ahead factor vs. Miami
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
As one of five undefeated teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, Ball State is drawing closer to a BCS bowl berth. To reach that goal, the Cardinals need to avoid looking ahead to a couple of crucial Mid-American Conference games.
The 14th-ranked Cardinals look to open with 10 wins for the first time in school history and avoid a letdown when they visit struggling Miami of Ohio on Tuesday. Oddsmakers have the Cards set as lofty 17.5-point favorites and a handful of books released an early total of 54.5.
Ball State (9-0, 5-0) cracked the AP poll at No. 25 for the first time in school history Oct. 5, and has been climbing the rankings ever since. With Wednesday's 45-14 victory over Northern Illinois, the Cardinals moved up two spots in the poll and three places to No. 14 in the BCS standings.
"Everybody talks about going undefeated, but we just talk about trying to make every play that we can,'' Ball State quarterback Nate Davis said.
"The biggest thing is we've got to keep our heads straight."
Despite being unbeaten, the Cardinals don't have much room for error in their conference.
Ball State is tied with Central Michigan atop the West Division, a half-game ahead of third-place Western Michigan. The division will likely be decided in the next two weeks, as the Cardinals visit the Chippewas next Wednesday and then wrap up the regular season Nov. 25 against the Broncos.
Not only would those two games determine whether Ball State wins the division, they could also end up being the reason the Cardinals don't get a BCS berth, as one loss would almost certainly knock them from contention.
Despite what's likely to be at stake in those games, coach Brady Hoke isn't worried about his team overlooking Miami of Ohio (2-7, 1-4).
"I think our seniors have done a fabulous job of leading this team and a great job understanding what our goals and what we want to do as a program," Hoke said. "And we haven't achieved any of those."
If Hoke's players seem unfocused going into Tuesday, the coach could show them tape of their 2007 season-opening 14-13 home loss to the RedHawks. Brandon Murphy's 6-yard touchdown run with 17 seconds remaining lifted Miami to the victory Aug. 30.
That defeat was the first in a 7-6 season for the Cardinals, but much has changed since then. Ball State is off to its best start since the 1965 team opened with nine straight wins.
The Cardinals are led by an offense that's averaging 38.3 points and 458.4 yards, both 11th in the FBS, and had little trouble picking apart the conference's top-ranked defense last week.
Ball State amassed a season-high 529 yards against Northern Illinois and scored its most points since its season-opening 48-14 victory over Northeastern.
Davis completed 18 of 22 passes for 300 yards and four touchdowns, breaking Mike Neu's school record for career completions in the process. The junior has 592, eclipsing Neu's 580.
MiQuale Lewis recorded his seventh 100-yard game of the season, rushing for 119 yards and one score on 19 carries.
Lewis, 10th in the FBS in rushing yards with 1,108 and tied for fourth in running touchdowns with 15, has been at his best on the road. He's run for 589 yards and nine TDs in four games away from Muncie.
The junior rushed for 91 yards on 25 carries in last season's loss to Miami, but should have a good chance to exceed that total Tuesday. The RedHawks have allowed a total of 521 rushing yards in their last two games.
Miami gave up a season-high 476 yards of offense in last Tuesday's 37-17 defeat to Buffalo, and has been outscored 91-38 in losing its last two games.
Freshman J.R. Taylor ran for 69 yards and a touchdown against the Bulls, and has rushed for 309 yards and two TDs on 54 carries in his last three games.
The RedHawks have lost their last two against ranked opponents since Ben Roethlisberger led Miami to a 49-27 win over then-No. 20 Bowling Green on Dec. 4, 2003.
The RedHawks have won three of their last four against Ball State, but have lost the last two meetings in Oxford.
This is the time of year when what's cool about my job stops being cool.
Football every day of the week is just too much man. I used to hate Thursday games, now I am surrounded till the end of the season.
Oy!
Ball St is averaging 194 yards a game on the ground, thats 5 yards a carry.
Now you look at Miami (OH) averaging 115 yards on the ground per game, roughly 3 yards a carry.
Can you say Ball St wins time of possesion... may be. I mean Ball St is averaging 37 carriesa game so
thats pretty good. Miami (OH) is giving up 178 yards per game on average. 16 yard difference... hmm thats almost (2) 1st downs. (somethin to ponder). Giving the fact that Ball St has been thrown around the BCS talk I think this is the upset Ball St fans have been trying to avoid.
Ball St is 3-1 ATS in past 4 @ Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) is 5-2 SU in past 7 vs. Ball St
Now this season Miami (OH) has covered the spread a whopping 38% with an average line of +5
This season for Ball St is right the opposite, Ball St has covered the spread 86% on an average spread of -11..
Well this has been just a little rambling if you want to call it that, personaly I see an upset in the works.
When Ball St has been a FAV by -7 or more this season.. 67% cover. Miami (OH) this season when a DOG by +7 or more have covered 50% of them. Ball St has only covered a spread of -10 or more a mere 33% this season.
My pick... Miami (OH) +10
Let me know what you guys think of my research..
Thanks for letting me ramble...
Good stuff Taco, ramble on.
Where are you from Taco?
Thanks for the vote of confidence Cash... I guess you could say I really nit pick the box scores for the stuff some may miss.. Its always good to here feedback on my rambling.. especially since Im new to this site. From Missouri originally... been a Alabama resident since 84'...
Nice writeup on tonights game taco. 😉
Thanks I appreciate your taking time to read it.. It would have been a lot better had Miami(OH) covered but just my luck he dropped a wide open pass in the end zone that could have help me out with my writeup.. I mean that would have been too sweet.. to score and put them just under the spread. It was a good game either way.. Miami(OH) just didnt execute when they had the chance.. Oh well I guess you cant pick all of them right..
But For the Record I believe they should have covered. I am working on Temple vs. Kent St right now, is it true that this is their first meeting?
You can find all the trends and stats here
Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 2-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 1-1 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Not sure what I did but in reviewing my data and reading my post I had posted Miami(OH) +10 and the spread was Miami(OH) +19.5... My apologies to everyone who read my post I had the line wrong... I will however eat that one as a WRONG pick on my part... But human error on my part caused the typo.. Wow do I feel like a "WE TODD"
I was wondering when I read that but you still had the right side,no biggie.