Tuesday Night Football

What bettors need to know: Tuesday's MAC attack
By MATT SEVERANCE

Game: Western Michigan at Ball State (-10.5, 53)

All-time series: The Broncos lead 19-15-0, but trail at Schuemann Stadium 7-9-0. The road team has won the past three meetings overall.

What’s at stake: A win earns Ball State a trip to the MAC title game and a chance to play in the Motor City Bowl. With some many desirable non-conference champs available, the chances are next to nil the Cardinals will get an invitation to one of the BCS bowl games. Ball State’s schedule is pale in comparison to a team like Utah but the Cardinals remain just one of five unbeaten I-A teams. WMU needs a win here and an Eastern Michigan upset of Central Michigan to reach the MAC championship game. The Broncos also are looking for the first 10-win season in school history.

Some offensive heavyweights: You’ve read about Ball State QB Nate Davis in this space many times, but WMU’s Tim Hiller has been flying under the radar. Hiller, who is also from Ohio, leads the MAC with 307.5 yards passing per game and 33 touchdowns. The junior has five straight 300-yard games and just six interceptions in 448 attempts. He has completed more passes than Davis has attempted. Hiller was picked off three times in a loss to BSU last year.

WMU’s Jamarko Simmons has 92 receptions this year, becoming only the second Bronco to top 90 catches joining current Packer Greg Jennings, who holds the school record with 98. Meanwhile, this will be the first game since the beginning of November that WMU’s top three wideouts are all healthy at the same time.

Davis gets all the headlines for Ball State but running back MiQuale Lewis is what keeps this offense rolling. He has topped 100 yards in three straight games and nine overall, totaling 1,450 yards and 17 touchdowns. He is 169 yards shy of breaking the single-season school mark of 1,618 and needs three rushing touchdowns to also break the single-season Cardinals record. Lewis wore Central Michigan down with a season-high 177 yards last week.

A few numbers: Ball State leads the conference in scoring offense and scoring defense, passing efficiency and passing defense efficiency and third-down conversions. The Cardinals haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any game and is winning their games by an average of 20 points.

If the Broncos can stay close in the first quarter that bodes well: They have outscored opponents in each of the second, third and fourth quarters this season. Both of WMU’s losses have come on the road this season.

Game: Navy at Northern Illinois (-3, 51)

All-time series: It’s the second meeting and first in DeKalb; last year, NIU allowed 359 yards rushing in a 24-18 loss to the Midshipmen.

What’s at stake: Navy is playing the first Tuesday night game in its storied history (the school will not move home games from Saturdays, incidentally). The Midshipmen already are headed to the EagleBank Bowl, while NIU must win to have any real shot at a bowl.

A new skipper for offense: In its last game, Navy punted nine times against Notre Dame and finished with a season-low 178 yards rushing. The Midshipmen managed only 11 first downs and were 1 of 15 on third and fourth down conversions.

Sophomore Ricky Dobbs will get his first career start at quarterback on Tuesday in hopes of getting the triple option back on track from that Irish debacle. Dobbs had played in relief of QBs Jarod Bryant and Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada in the past three games. Dobbs led the Midshipmen to wins against SMU and Temple, rushing for 224 yards and three TDs against the Mustangs and spearheading a 20-point fourth-quarter rally against the Owls. Overall, Dobbs has run for 369 yards and seven touchdowns while connecting on eight of 15 passes for 180 yards, a touchdown and interception.

“He makes plays and moves the team," Navy coach Ken Niumataolo said of his decision.

Kaheaku-Enhada, who starred last season, has missed most of the season with an injured hamstring, but hopes to play against Army on Dec. 6.

A few numbers: NIU has outscored its opponents 149-69 in its five home games. The Huskies surrendered eight less points at home than away from their cozy confines. Central Michigan is the only foe to score more than 13 points vs. NIU in DeKalb.

Navy is second in the country in rushing (it has won the national rushing title the past three seasons) and ahead of only Army in the national passing rating. In fact, the Midshipmen’s leading receiver has just 17 catches (Navy has thrown only 74 times); no one else has more than four catches.

In NIU’s last game, an impressive 42-14 win over Kent State, QB Chandler Harnish ran for 117 yards and added 173 through the air. The freshman also had four touchdowns (two rushing, two passing). His 1,640 total yards of offense this season is a school record for a freshman.

Western Michigan at Ball State
By Judd Hall

Thanksgiving week is a time for family, a time for food and a great time for betting with a board full of matches to play. Bettors will get into the mood on Tuesday night when Western Michigan travels to Muncie, Indiana to face Ball State. This game was originally slated to be available only on the internet via ESPN360.com. But the powers that be have now switched the game to ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. EST.

The Broncos are coming off of a 27-17 win over Toledo on Nov. 15 as 15½-point home favorites. Tim Hiller paced Western Michigan through the air by completing 22 of his 36 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown. WMU was poised to cover the spread in its third straight game with a 27-10 lead in the fourth, but Aaron Opelt gave the Rockets the ATS win with a one-yard score with just under four minutes left in regulation.

You’d think that the Broncs have a pass happy offense. After all, Hiller has thrown for 3,382 yards this season with 33 touchdowns and just six interceptions. But they are perfectly content to run the ball, too. Brandon West has rushed for 909 yards and seven scores so far in 2008.

Ball State is one step closer to its first undefeated season since 1949 after beating the Chippewas as a six-point road “chalk,” 31-24, last Wednesday. The Cardinals were able to get the edge on Central Michigan last week thanks to quarterback Nate Davis connecting on 12 of 22 passes for 175 yards and four touchdowns. He also ran seven times for another 42 yards. MiQuale Lewis proved to be a workhorse as he carried the ball 28 times for a career high 177 yards.

An outright MAC West Division title is on the line for the Cardinals, a first for the program. Yet the Broncos can also lay claim to the championship with a win here to split the division up with Ball State and Central Michigan. Unfortunately for Western Michigan, they won’t make it to the conference title game since Ball State will own the first tiebreaker with the best overall record.

The last 10 times these programs have met on the gridiron the road team have gone 6-4 SU, but just 5-5 ATS. Ball State has posted a 3-1 SU and ATS record in the past four meetings against the Broncos.

The Cardinals needed a one-yard touchdown run from Frank Edmonds with just a minute left in regulation to beat WMU in 2007, 27-24, in a pick ‘em at Kalamazoo.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed Ball State as an 11-point home favorite with a total of 53. Bettors can back Western Michigan to win on the money line at plus 325 (risk $100 to win $325).

Brady Hoke has guided his alma mater since 2003. The result has been a positive one for the Cards when listed as home favorites, going 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS during Hoke’s tenure…4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season alone.

The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run for Ball State right now. The Broncos, on the other hand have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this year on the road.

vegasinsider.com

No. 15 Ball State seeks perfection against Broncos
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) -Brady Hoke has used the same mantra all season.

Forget about records, rankings or the excitement surrounding Ball State. Ignore the discussion about perfect seasons or rumors Hoke could be headed to another program next year. Just keep playing football.

Why change now?

With the 15th-ranked Cardinals still chasing a perfect season and a conference championship game bid Tuesday night, Hoke has reverted to the same, steady them to keep his players focused for their regular-season finale.

''Our goal has been to win the championship since we came here in 2003, so when we meet at the beginning of the year, we talk about our expectations and what investment we're going to make as a team,'' he said Monday. ''Believe me, it's been a conversation. But I like our team because of how they care about each other and how they play for each other, and that's what we're going to do on Tuesday.''

Clearly, this is not just another Senior Day at Ball State.

The Cardinals are 11-0 for the first time in school history, one win from reaching their first Mid-American Conference title game. They have been ranked seven consecutive weeks after never being ranked previously, are 15th in the BCS standings and remain among a handful of unbeaten teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision - a list that does not even include perennial powers such as Florida, Oklahoma, Texas or Southern Cal.

Plus, there's still hope, albeit a longshot, they could sneak into position for a BCS bid.

But any chance of that must start by beating a Western Michigan squad that envisions pulling a major upset on national television.

''I think our kids are really excited about the game,'' Western coach Bill Cubit said. ''It will probably be the marquee matchup in our league, so it's good for our guys. I tell them all you can control is what you're doing, take care of business.''

For the Cardinals, this season has been all business.

They've won week after week despite playing a schedule designed to get them maximum exposure. Midweek games have become the norm, and last week's 31-24 victory at Central Michigan, the two-time defending league champs, was the highest-rated college football game ever shown by ESPN2 on a Tuesday or Wednesday night.

But the Cardinals are all about winning.

Ball State (11-0, 7-0) has not produced a perfect conference record since 1978, when Hoke played for the Cardinals.

And while emotions will be high as the teams says goodbye to a host of seniors, including receiver Dante Love, who sustained a career-ending spinal cord injury in September, most fans will show up expecting to see win No. 12.

The Cardinals, winners of seven straight home games, are 10 1/2-point favorites.

But Western Michigan could force a three-way tie atop the MAC West, and the Broncos (9-2, 6-1) could turn the game into their own audition for bowl representatives.

''I think it's good for the league,'' Cubit said. ''When you look at what the league has done, and I'm sure they didn't do it purposely, but they've got a lot of good matchups this week. For me, personally, I like it because it keeps the kids' attention.''

Hoke, however, hasn't wavered from his regular routine.

His biggest concern Tuesday is slowing down Western Michigan quarterback Tim Hiller, who leads the conference with 307.5 yards passing per game and 33 touchdowns.

''Tim's decision-making is something we're really impressed with as a staff,'' Hoke said. ''That's going to be a big challenge for us. We've got to play a lot tighter coverage than we have been if we're going to be successful.''

Cubit has other problems to contend with.

Ball State leads the conference in scoring offense and scoring defense, passing efficiency and passing defense efficiency and third-down conversions.

And he gave his team a much-needed two-day respite last week to help them heal and get a short mental break.

''I think they needed to get away and catch their breath,'' Cubit said.

Ball State doesn't have that luxury, not that Hoke's team needs it.

He simply wants Nate Davis, MiQuale Lewis and the rest of his Cardinals to continue doing what they've always done best - play football and ignore the rest.

''We have a lot of work to do,'' Hoke said. ''They have a tremendous offense. This is going to be a huge test for us.''

2-Minute Handicap
by: Marc Lawrence

W Michigan 4-0 dogs off DD SU home win… 3-1 LRG… 8-3 w/ con rev… 5-2 weekdays… 0-4 vs .750 > con opp

BALL ST SERIES: 3-1 L4… 4-1 off SUATS con RF win… 5-1-1 favs vs con opp w/ rev… 3-1 LHG

Western Michigan (9-2, 5-5 ATS) at (15) Ball State (11-0, 8-2 ATS)

Ball State can wrap up a perfect regular season and a berth in the Mid-American Conference championship game with a victory tonight over Western Michigan, which brings a three-game winning streak into Ball State Stadium.

Playing their third straight midweek, nationally televised game, the Cardinals held off Central Michigan 31-24 last Wednesday, barely cashing as a 6½-point home favorite. Ball State, which averages 37 points and 456.1 points per game, has scored at least 31 points in 10 of its 11 games and hasn’t scored fewer than 24 points in any contest this season.

The Broncos took last week off after toppling Toledo 27-17 on Nov. 15, failing to cover as a 14-point home chalk. Since a season-opening 47-24 loss at Nebraska, Western Michigan has won nine of its last 10 games, scoring at least 27 points eight times. During their three-game winning streak, WMU has averaged 27 points and 402 total yards per game while giving up 14.7 points but also 402 yards per contest.

Ball State (7-0, 5-2 ATS in conference) controls its own destiny in the MAC West Division, as it leads both Central Michigan and Western Michigan (6-1, 4-3 ATS) by one game. Should the Broncos pull off the upset tonight, though, the three teams will be in a tie, with each having gone 1-1 against the other two schools.

The Cardinals have won five of the last seven meetings both SU and ATS in this rivalry, including last year’s 27-23 victory at Western Michigan in a pick-em contest. The visitor is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine head-to-head clashes.

Ball State is 5-0 (3-1 ATS) at home, putting up 41.4 points and 467 total yards per game, while allowing 17.4 points and 348.2 yards. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 2-2 SU and ATS on the highway and their offensive stats as a visitor (28.8 points, 394.2 total yards per game) are identical to their defensive numbers (28.8 ppg, 396 ypg).

In addition to its 8-2 ATS mark on the season, Ball State is on pointspread hot streaks of 19-7 overall, 4-1 at home, 15-3 against winning teams, 10-4 in November, 5-2 in MAC action and 6-2 when playing on grass. Western Michigan is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight November contests, but otherwise is in ATS ruts of 7-15-2 against winning teams and 3-9-1 in league play.

For the Broncos, the over is on streaks of 5-1 on the road and 11-4 on grass, but the under has cashed in each of their last four November outings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall (4-1 in conference), 7-1 in November and 7-3 on grass. However, the over is 3-1 in the last four Ball State-Western Michigan battles (2-0 at Ball State).

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE

Navy (6-4, 4-5 ATS) at Northern Illinois (6-5, 6-4 ATS)

Northern Illinois looks to keep its slim bowl hopes alive as it closes out the regular season with a non-conference clash against Navy at Huskie Stadium.

The last time Northern Illinois was at home, it suffered a heartbreaking 33-30 overtime loss to Central Michigan, erasing a 30-14 fourth-quarter deficit before turning the ball over on its first offensive possession in overtime. However, the Huskies bounced back from that defeat with last Tuesday’s 42-14 rout of Kent State, easily cashing as a two-point road favorite. NIU outgained Kent State 397-253 (224-127 in rushing) and forced three fumbles while committing no turnovers.

Navy had a modest two-game winning streak snapped 10 days ago, falling 27-21 to Notre Dame as a four-point underdog. It marked the fourth time in the last five games that the Midshipmen had given up at least 27 points and the fourth time in the last five that they got outgained in total yardage.

This is a rematch of last November’s meeting at the Naval Academy, which the Middies won 35-24, but Northern Illinois got the cash as a 16½-point underdog.

Navy is 1-1 against teams from the Mid-American Conference this year, but the Midshipmen have failed to cash in five straight against the MAC (0-2 ATS this year). They’re also 0-4 ATS in their last four November affairs, but they’re 51-21 ATS in their last 72 on the highway and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after a defeat.

Northern Illinois is on ATS upticks of 9-4 overall, 9-3-1 in November and 4-1 outside the MAC.

The over is 7-2 in Navy’s last nine on the highway and 8-3-1 in its last 12 in November, but the Middies have stayed under the total in seven of their last eight games on artificial turf. For Northern Illinois, the under is on solid streaks of 20-8-1 overall, 9-1-1 at home, 6-2 in non-conference play, 13-5-1 on turf, 7-3 in November and 7-2 against winning teams.

Finally, despite 59 combined points, last year’s meeting between these teams stayed under the 72½-point posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHERN ILLINOIS and UNDER

Gametimepicks.com

Tips and Trends

Western Michigan at #15 Ball State

Western Michigan: The Broncos believe they might be catching Ball State in a bit of a letdown spot after a big win at Central Michigan last week. The Cardinals have another dangerous foe here that is certainly capable of beating them if that turns out to be the case. Quarterback Tim Hiller leads the conference with 3,382 passing yards - including five straight 300 yard games - to go along with 33 touchdowns. “I think our kids are feeling pretty good about it,” Western Michigan head coach Bill Cubit said. “I mean, Ball State’s undefeated. So I think the challenge there is pretty good.”

Western Michigan is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall.
The UNDER is 3-0 in Western Michigan's last 3 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Brandon West (ankle) is questionable.
DB Londen Fryar (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Ball State (-11, O/U 54.5): The Cardinals remain focused on winning the MAC first and foremost above everything else even though there is still talk around the college football world about an unbeaten season and a potential BCS bid. “Our goal has been to win the championship since we came here in 2003, so when we meet at the beginning of the year, we talk about our expectations and what investment we’re going to make as a team,” Ball State head coach Brady Hoke said. “Believe me, it’s been a conversation. But I like our team because of how they care about each other and how they play for each other, and that’s what we’re going to do on Tuesday.”

Ball State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Ball State's last 8 November games.

Key Injuries - WR Dante Love (back) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 35 (Side Play of the Day)

Tuesday's Games

Ball State's third straight weeknight TV game; visitor won their last three vs Western Michigan, with average total in last four, 58. Cardinals have won all 11 games this season, are 3-1-1 as home favorite this year, with none of their wins in Muncie by less than 12 points. Five of last six Ball State games stayed under the total. Western is 9-2, losing at Nebraska by 23, Central Michigan by 10- they covered four of last five as underdogs. This is Broncos' first true road game in over a month.

Navy covered eight of last ten November road games- they're 2-2 in last four games, 6-4 for season- this is their first road game in 7+ weeks, as Notre Dame game was in Baltimore. Middies are 2-2 on road, winning its last two on foriegn soil. Northern Illinois is also playing third weeknight game in row- they've run for 200+ yards in all six wins this year, less in its losses. Navy allowed 200+ rushing yards in five of last eight games. Navy was down 27-7 with 2:00 left in last game, wound up losing 27-21 but had ball on Notre Dame 34 when game ended.

Chance of snow in tonight's WMU-BSU game
By MICHAEL PERRY

Western Michigan at Ball State (-10.5, 54)

Ball State looks to keep its dream season alive when the school faces Western Michigan in Muncie.

Weather conditions: 34°F with a chance of snow shower. Feels like: 24°F with 40 percent precipitation. Wind: From WNW 16 mph

Where the line opened: Ball State -10

Where it stands now: BSU -10.5

Where the wise action is: Small amount on Ball State -10

Over/under movement: 53 to 54

Injury Report: WMU RB Brandon West (ankle) is probable. West leads team with 909 yards. Next leading rusher only has 165 yards. WMU WR Schneider Julien is probable (shoulder). Julien is team's third-leading receiver both in receptions and receiving yards.

Seventy-four percent of our players are backing Ball State. We are also lopsided on the total in this game with 72 percent of bets on the over. Don’t be so quick to bank on the double-digit favorite. The Broncos have quarterback in Tim Hiller (33 TDs/6 INTs) that can go toe-to-toe with Ball State's Nate Davis.

Navy Academy Midshipmen: Are they for real?
By STEVE MERRIL

The Naval Academy is penciled in for the Eagle Bank Bowl against an ACC team Dec. 20. But do they deserve to play in a better bowl? Are they for real?

The Middies have faced some quality opponents this season and are 1-1 SU (straight up) against the ACC after beating Wake Forest and losing to Duke on the road. Navy has also defeated solid Rutgers and Air Force squads this year.

The Midshipmen defeated Temple on an improbable comeback in overtime and then came up just a bit short in a failed comeback attempt against Notre Dame, 27-21.

Navy currently ranks second in total rushing offense in the nation behind Nevada with 295 yards on the ground per game and 5.3 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 191 yards and 4.8 yards per carry). Navy rushes the ball for 81percent of its total offensive yards and 87 percent of its offensive plays with only seven pass attempts per game.

Shun White leads with 873 yards this season and a fantastic 8.4 yards per rush average. He was the hot topic early this season after his three touchdowns and 348 yard rushing yards against Towson in the season opener. Eric Kettani is second on the team with 71.5 yards per game and ranks 59th overall in the nation.

It has been a revolving door at quarterback with Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada not playing much this year. This has forced Navy to go to the bench for Jarod Bryant and now Ricky Dobbs, who is expected to start versus Northern Illinois on Tuesday. Each quarterback has had their shining moments this season, even if it’s just handing the ball off and playing ball control offense.

Defensively, Navy has been decent against the run, but ranks 107th in pass efficiency defense and they have regularly been beaten through the air this season. Navy doesn’t pressure the quarterback and ites defense has allowed 66.6 percent completions and 8.3 yards per pass this versus opponents that average just 59.8 percent and 7.2 ypp.

Navy faces Army in its season finale after playing Northern Illinois. If the Midshipmen can win out, they might garner a better bowl bid. But Navy cannot be considered for real with the defensive weaknesses and one dimensional offense.