Westcoastsportspicks

NBA Basketball
Golden State -1
Oklahoma City +10.5

NCAA Basketball
St. Bonaventure +9.5
Penn State -2
Ball State +7 .5
Saint Louis +10.5
Arkansas-Little Rock +4.5
Georgia State -1

Las Vegas Sport Picks

Football: (4-3 last 2 days)
2* Ball St/WMU over 53

NHL: (1-0 yesterday)
1* Predators -1.5 +180
1* Flames -1.5 +170
2* Atl/Leafs over 6 -110

Basketball: (11-4 last 2 days)
2* Lakers -13
2* OKC/Phx under 199
2* Georgia State -1
2* OKC +10.5
3* PSU -3
3* Cavs/Knicks ove 213
4* St. Louis +10.5

Frank Patron

10000 Unit College Football Lock

Navy Midshipmen +3

Cajun-Sports CFB Executive

4 STAR SELECTION

BALL STATE -10½ over Western Michigan

Two Mid-American Conference quarterbacks and their teams square off Tuesday night when the Broncos visit the Cardinals. Western Michigan’s Tim Hiller and Ball State's Nate Davis will try to lead their teams to unfamiliar territory — the MAC title game in the West Division showdown.

Hiller has rebounded from a so-so sophomore season to produce 309 yards a game passing with 33 touchdowns while ranking second in the league in passing efficiency. The only man ahead of him is Davis, who averages 273 passing yards with 24 TDs.

The Cardinals have never reached the championship but this has been their dream season, with an unprecedented 11-0 record and the highest national ranking in school history — 15th in the Bowl Championship Series standings.

Nate Davis is a junior, but with the help of running back MiQuale Lewis who has nearly 1500 yards, has made Ball State the MAC's leader in total offense and scoring.

Last week, the Cardinals got over the hump and did something the Broncos could not do earlier this season – win at Central Michigan. In fact, Western Michigan has never won THIS game, the one where there's so much at stake in the MAC standings, during coach Bill Cubit's tenure. It lost 42-7 at Northern Illinois in 2005 with a bowl bid on the line, 31-7 in 2006 at Central Michigan with the league title probably at stake and again to the Chippewas this season, 38-28, in a game that'll likely keep the Broncos from the MAC championship game.

The 2 big differences between these teams should become obvious Tuesday night. First, Ball State has a very balanced attack, which will be needed in what could be a cold, windy, and snowy night, while Western Michigan has relied much more on QB Hiller than its running game. Secondly, the Cardinals defense has been stronger than the Broncos this season.

Western Michigan is simply in over its head here, as they are 0-9 ATS (-8.1 ppg) when not an underdog of 28+ points vs. undefeated teams not off a conference road ATS loss of 5+ points. Only twice have they been a non-Saturday dog of more than 3 points since 2005 and have been demolished in those 2 contests, losing by 30 points on average, while failing to cover the spread by 3 TDs!

Ball State has proven time and again this season that they are up to the task and they are not about to fade here. We will certainly get their best effort and focus here, as we look to play ON a power team in a “must-win” situation to qualify for a conference championship or bowl game under the right conditions.

Ultimately, the most important factor is whether the team sincerely believes they belong in the postseason. Even those teams not usually in the playoffs can be favorably affected by the specter of elimination so long as they truly believe they belong in the playoffs. The Cardinals certainly believe they belong, especially after disposing of the Chippewas last week.

Ball State is now 10-0 SU (+23.1 ppg) & 10-0 ATS (+15.2 ppg) when not favored by 25+ points vs. teams seeking revenge for a SU loss of 4+ points, and 7-0 SU (+19.6 ppg) & 7-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) this season when not favored by 17+ points.

We also note that undefeated home teams from Game 8 on with less than 6 days rest and not favored by 24+ points are 4-0 SU (+31 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+19 ppg) since at least 1980, and teams have finished strong at home in highlighted, non-Saturday games when facing a foe on a winning streak. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

In its Last Home Game, play ON a non-Saturday favorite of 1½-15½ points with less than 12 days rest vs. an opponent off 2 SU wins (not both non-Saturday).

Since 1985, these teams are 15-0 SU (+17.9 ppg) & 14-0-1 ATS (+11.4 ppg). Last week’s thumping of Miami, FL by Georgia Tech was the most recent example, and now Ball State qualifies as the next “PLAY ON” team.

Finally, our SportsDataBase research has revealed that late in the season, unbeaten teams have enjoyed the bright lights of non-Saturday games and not overlooked opponents in these highlighted games. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM which states:

From Game 8 on, play ON a non-Saturday undefeated home team (not a favorite of 24+ points) vs. an opponent off a SU win (not an ATS loss of 9+ points).

These perfect teams have remained perfect and covered the spread in every opportunity since at least 1980, going 11-0 SU (+19.7 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg).

Last week, Ball State struggled for 3 quarters before coming on strong in the 4th quarter to win at Central Michigan. With a home crowd in a frenzy here, we look for the Cardinals to jump on the Broncos early and demoralize a team that knows its going bowling even with a loss.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALL STATE 34 WESTERN MICHIGAN 17

3 STAR SELECTION

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3 over Navy

Tuesday night the 6-4 Midshipman travel to take on the 6-5 Huskies of the Mid-American Conference. Navy is coming off a 27-21 loss to Notre Dame back on November 15 while Northern Illinois beat up on Kent State, 42-14, in the snow last Tuesday.

Midshipmen sophomore Ricky Dobbs gets his first start as a college quarterback in this game. Dobbs has come off the bench in each of the last three games and rallied the Midshipmen. His entrance didn't produce immediate results last week, and it took a silly Temple fumble to get it done the week before. Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo knows Dobbs still has a lot of work to do to become a better player. He also knows Jarod Bryant wasn't at fault for the problems that led to Dobbs coming in again in the loss to Notre Dame a couple of Saturdays ago.

All that said, the first-year head coach has decided to go with the sophomore Dobbs over the senior Bryant when the Midshipmen visit Northern Illinois.

"There's area where (Dobbs) definitely needs to get better," Niumatalolo says. "But I've told him, I've told Jarod, the bottom line is he's moving the team."

The Mids are already set to play in the December 20th EagleBank Bowl at RFK Stadium in Washington. So, while wins are nice, there's no reason for Navy not to look toward the future. Dobbs is a sophomore, while both the injured Kaheaku-Enhada and Bryant, the slotback who has filled in behind center, are seniors and set to move on.

This upcoming game also precedes the December 6th game with Army that ends the regular season, so no doubt Navy is trying to get their young QB more game experience before that annual epic meeting.

On the other side of the field, the Huskies counter with an offense that matches Navy's average of 28 points a game. They split their yardage almost equally between the air and ground, and average 342 yards per contest. Freshman QB Chandler Harnish has done a nice job running the offense and really picked up his game last week.

This will be the third of four games that the Huskies play on a Tuesday or Wednesday night this month, two of the least common football days of the week. It's part of an ongoing effort of the MAC to garner national attention. With a 10-0 Ball State team as the conference's centerpiece, the MAC has received a disproportionate number of nationally televised games due to the open slot in TV programming for football on those nights. Ultimately the Tuesday game means for Navy a few extra days of rest, but with the Huskies practice schedule now set up squarely around mid-week contests, it should provide the Huskies with an additional edge here.

While Navy is looking to the future a bit, it is all about NOW for Northern Illinois. Armed with a slogan of "Battle for a Bowl", motivation shouldn't be an issue for the Huskies in this final regular season contest. A victory gives the Huskies a 7-5 record, greatly enhancing their chances for a third bowl bid in the last five years.

First-year coach Jerry Kill acknowledged the importance of beating Navy.

"In a lot of ways, this is a bowl game," Kill said. "When you have a chance to play a team the caliber of the U.S. Naval Academy in your own stadium, it's a tremendous opportunity. I have such respect for the young men in that program, and I just hope we have a great crowd to come out to honor their team, cheer on the Huskies, and celebrate our seniors."

Here, we are going to play ON a "bubble team" vs. an opponent in or likely to be in a bowl game or a foe that doesn't have a chance of a bowl game in a non-rivalry game. Teams fighting for bowl eligibility should be much more motivated than those teams already in and just trying to stay healthy, and against opponents that are already thinking about next year.

In looking at some technical information, we show Navy at 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with MAC teams, 0-5 SU (-11.2 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-7.8) vs. non-Armed Forces teams playing with revenge since 2001, and 0-3 ATS this season with more than 6 days rest.

Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is 3-0 ATS in their final home game the last 3 years, 5-0 ATS in their final home game with less than 7 SU wins and less than 13 days rest, 7-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) in their final game and not favored by 25+ points or off 6 SU wins, and 5-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) with revenge vs. opponents with the same or fewer SU wins on the season.

The Huskies also are active for NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that after a road favorite win to get to 6 wins on the season, hosts in their final home game have played very strongly looking to solidify their bowl possibilities. This POWER SYSTEM states:

From Game 11 on, play ON a team in its Last Home Game (not a favorite of 9+ points or underdog of more than 8 points) with 6 season SU wins off a road favorite/pick ‘em SU win.

Since 1989, these teams are a fabulous 16-0 ATS, while crushing the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.

With the additional motivation and more experienced QB on their side, we look for a very determined Northern Illinois team to get that coveted 7th win of the season, while they cover this small number.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31 NAVY 24

Dr Bob

Opinions

BALL ST. (-10.5) 37 Western Mich 23

Western Michigan is a good team by MAC standards, rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense, but Ball State is a good team by any standard. The Cardinals have averaged an impressive 7.2 yppl this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and they rate at 1.0 yppl better than average offensively since losing star receiver Dante Love in week 4 against Indiana. Ball State is 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively, so Western Michigan should score a decent amount of points, but the Ball State has not allowed more than 24 points to any team all season and Ball State should score around their average of 37 points per game.

NORTHERN ILL (-3.0) 26 Navy 24

Navy is turning to sophomore quarterback Ricky Dobbs to run the option attack and he looks like a better option than Jarod Bryant, who wasn’t as good reading defenses as injured starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. Dobbs won’t run the attack as well as Kaheaku-Enhada either, but the Midshipmen should move the ball well enough to keep this game competitive against a solid Northern Illinois team that is 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and average defensively. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 1 1/2 points, so I’ll lean slightly with the Middies plus the points.

Brandon Lang

15 Dime Northern Illinois

FREE - Western Michigan

Larry Ness

7* MAC Showdown

Western Michigan

Weekly Wipeout Winner

Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers

Las Vegas Insider-CBB

Kansas Jayhawks

BIG AL

Western Michigan plus the points over Ball State.

Lenny Del Genio

20* NBA Non-Conf Game of the Month

Pacers

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Northern Illinois (-3) over Navy (NCAA Power Play)

Navy
• 0-2 SU & ATS when the line is between +3 and -3
• 1-5 ATS vs. MAC Conference Opponents the last 3 seasons
• 1-4 ATS coming off a game with one or less turnovers
• Allowing an average of 29 ppg on defense in road games this season

Bonus Play

5* Take Ball State (-10.5) over Western Michigan

Tommy the Swami

Golden St -1

Golden St has won 3 straight games against the Wizards,avging 126 pts in those games. The Wizz edition for tonite just doesn't look like they have the horses to keep pace in this contest. Washington off a 117 pt game vs the new run and gun Knicks who are under the direction of ex-Suns offensive guru Mike D'Antoni. The 6 games prior, the Wizz only manged 519 pts thru 6 gms, 86 ppg avg, scoring over 90 pts just twice. The Wizz have a new HC on display, but we favor the Warriors, who will have their own new addition on display, as Jamal Crawford makes his debut with the club. The Wizz have won just once all year, & we don't think they can get # 2 here vs the hot and talented scorers of GSt, who will have a sense of urgency in this spot. The Warriors enter off two losses. With games at Boston and Cleveland on deck,this becomes a BIG game to get a win and stop the bleeding, & to prevent a possible 5 game slide. We prefer to back savvy HC Nellie vs a team in transition. Nellie's a master at creating the mismatch with his small ball line-ups, & knows this is the game he needs to win to salvage the East Coast road swing. GSt 34-17as a road fav, 42-24 after losing 2 of their lst 3 Wash 24-46 as a home dog of 3 or less

Marc Lawrence

Western Michigan

Kelso

College FB

3 units W Mich +10.5
3 units Navy +3

Jeff Benton

10 Dime Ball St.
5 Dime Lakers
5 Dime Washington U.