TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

LENNY STEVENS

10* NY Knicks
10* Mississippi State

DOC

5-Unit Play (Totals Game of the Week) Take Phoenix/Oklahoma City UNDER

Eight straight games in this series have come in under the posted total and we think the oddsmakers have once again strung too high of a number on this game. The Thunder have had all sorts of trouble scoring on offense and have averaged less than 88 in their last five games and their averaged aren’t much better than that for the season. We see this game as a blowout, just like the oddsmakers, and that will help push this one under as the Suns get their share of points but OKC struggles to score again. Five of the last six games for Phoenix have gone under and they are actually in the Top 10 in the league in defensive FG%, which does not bode well for an Oklahoma team that struggles to shoot from the field (41% on the season).

4 Unit Play.Take Texas A & M over Wilmington

I expect this game to go a lot like the Wake Forest game went last week with the Aggies reaching triple figures and easily covering this big spread. The Seahawks are terrible and have been blown out in their last two games by average teams in their last two. Texas A & M is always a tough team to beat in College Station and despite losing their coach last season, they have not missed a beat making the big dance in 2008 and taking UCLA to the wire. This one will get ugly early and we will easily collect.

3 Unit Play.Take Northern Illinois over Navy

The MAC is a strong conference this year when comparing it to other mid-majors and Northern Illinois has come on of late winning four of their last six games. Their only two losses during this streak came against Ball State and Central Michigan, two of the best teams in the league. Now they face a Navy team that is coming off a tough loss against Notre Dame and expect them to struggle running the football in DeKalb. Midweek games are always tough to prepare for but the Huskies are used to this having played their last three on either Tuesday or Wednesday. They will take care of business tonight, as we collect in the process.

3 Unit Play.Take Calgary over Los Angeles

Granted this is a big number but the Flames have much more talent then the Kings at every position but one and will take care of business tonight at the Saddledome. Miikka Kiprusoff has not been himself in 2008 but expect him to get on a roll and get his goals against average back under three. Jarome Iginla has 45 point in 44 games against the Kings and will come up big again on Tuesday. LA has played a home heavy schedule thus far and expect them to go on a long losing streak when these road games catch up with them.

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Western Michigan and a 3* on the first half line as well.– AiS shows 84% probability that WM will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. AiS shows an 88% probability that WM will gain a minimum of 250 net passing yards in this game. Note that WM is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992. Based on my power ratings of opponents played, Ball State has one of the weakest ratings within their conference let alone on a national ranking. The best teams in the land sport opponent ratings near 40 and 42 while Ball State’s is at just 25.4. WM has 28.8 rating so they have played a stronger schedule, which can help them greatly in this game. Supporting the 1st half graded play is a system that has gone 40-11 ATS for 78% since 1992. Play against favorites of 6 to 11.5 versus the first half line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and with 9 or more defensive starters returning. Take Western Michigan.

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Cardinals have had a fantastic season. They've got one more serious test ahead of them though, as the Broncos are also a very strong team. The Broncos come in at 9-2 including a 6-1 record in the MAC. The lone loss was by 10 points at Central Michigan and the Broncos were playing their second straight road game, the only time they had to do so all season. You'll recall that the same Central Michigan team gave Ball State a very tough test last week. While the Cardinals are coming off that hard- fought road game and playing on a short week, the Broncos come in well-rested, having not played since Nov. 15th. That marked the Broncos third straight home game, so fatigue certainly shouldn't be a factor. In addition to the extra preparation time, the time off has given the Broncos time to get a few key players back in the lineup. We know this is a really big game for the Cardinals. The Broncos have a ton of motivation too though. For starters, a win would give them 10 wins in a season for the first time in school history. A victory would also assure them of at least a tie for the MAC West championship and possibly a berth in the MAC title game. Additionally, there's the revenge factor as Ball State won at Western Michigan (by 4 points) last season. There would certainly be no better way to get some payback than to be the team which spoiled the Cardinals' perfect season. Note that the Broncos returned a ton of starters from last year's team. Additionally, note that the Broncos won here at Muncie the last time (2006) that they faced the Cardinals here. The Broncos, who are allowing just 15.9 ppg and 332.4 total yards per game, have been solid as underdogs over the years, going 11-7-1 ATS their last 18 in that role. The last time they were getting points they defeated Illinois outright, a tougher non-conference opponent than Ball State defeated all season. I expect them to give their hosts all they can handle tonight and won't be surprised if they spoil their perfect season. *Annihilator

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. Its been an extremely tough start in Oklahoma City for the team formerly known as the Sonics. Things have been so bad that the Thunder recently fired their coach. Scott Brooks replaced P.J. Carlesimo on Saturday on an interim basis. The Thunder responded positively to the change in Brooks' first game, a Sunday affair at New Orleans. While they still lost, the Thunder played the Hornets tough and earned their first pointspread cover since 11/10. After the game, Brooks was quoted as saying: "We shared the ball a lot better tonight and we played with a lot more energy. Our guys are tired right now, and it's a good tired. They played with the kind of energy our fans can be proud of. This was a tough day, with the team in some tough circumstances, and they came to play and leave it on the court." Returning home, I expect the Thunder to give another inspired effort for their new coach. The Suns' last four games have come against Detroit, Utah, LA (Lakers) and Portland. All four of those teams have winning records. Off those "big" games, it should be fairly easy for the Suns to overlook the lowly Thunder here. Note that Phoenix is 0-3 ATS its last three games against teams with a losing record and a money-burning 33-42-3 (44%) ATS against losing teams since the start of the 2006 season. Its also worth noting that the Suns were just 2-6-1 ATS during that stretch when listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Yes, the Suns did sweep the Sonics last season. However, a closer look shows that Seattle went 3-0-1 ATS in those games. The Suns won the games by an average of less than eight points per game and no games were decided by greater than 12 points. The Suns have played seven road games this season and only one of those resulted in a victory of more than 10 points. I expect them to have their hands full again this evening as the newly energized Thunder earn at least another cover. *Western Conf. GOM

Ron Raymond

5* Navy +3

Paul Leiner

100* Ind/Dal Over 199
50* Penn State -3.5
10* Navy/NIU Over 52

Opposite Action Plays

Western Michigan

JB Sports

Washington Wizards

Bob Balfe

Western Michigan

LT Profits

Saint Bonaventure

Mike Rose

Notre Dame