Special K
20*SUPER K - PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
HOOPS
FASTBREAK
3* NY Knicks
3* Milwaukee
ROUNDBALL
4* San Antonio
3* Idaho St.
Tom Freese
10* Iowa St
Dr. Bob
NBA
2 Star Selection
Milwaukee (+7) over PHOENIX
The Suns broke their 4 game losing streak with a 106-104, non covering win over the Jazz that ran their spread losing streak to 5 games. I expect that streak to continue, as breaking that losing streak is not a sign that things are suddenly alright in Phoenix. The Suns apply to a negative 23-61-1 ATS situation that is based on the breaking of their recent losing streak (good teams that break a 4 game or more losing skid are bad bets in their next game) and Milwaukee is an underrated team that is now 15-6-1 ATS for the season. My ratings, using the Suns games in which both Steve Nash and Shaquille O’Neal both played, favors Phoenix by just 6 points, so we have a bit of line value on our side too. I’ll take Milwaukee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
2-Stars at +6 points or more.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
IOWA (-7 ½) over Northern Iowa
It was expected that Northern Iowa could overcome the loss of top player Eric Coleman with the return of 3 other starters and the addition of pointguard Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who missed last season with an injury. However, the returning players have not been able to make up for Coleman’s lost offensive production (Coleman made 55.1% of his shots last season while the rest of the Panthers made just 42.4% from the field) and the Panthers are playing considerably worse on the defensive side of the floor this season. While Northern Iowa is worse than expected, Iowa is better than expected. The Hawkeyes were expected to be better in former Butler coach Todd Lickliter’s second season at the helm, but the great play of freshman guards Anthony Tucker (13.1 points, 44% 3-point shooting) and Matt Gatens (10.8 points, 3.7 assists, 53.4% shooting and 57% from 3-point range) was unexpected and has the Hawkeyes playing much better than anticipated. Lickliter has assembled a team of very good shooters, just like he had at Butler, and his team is shooting 49% from the field and knocking down 42% of their 3-point shots while also playing good defense (40.7% shooting allowed). Unfortunately, Tucker has been suspended for violation of team rules, but his scoring efficiency isn’t too much better than the rest of the team’s combined scoring efficiency and I calculate his loss to the offense at just 0.7 points per game. Tucker only averages 0.7 assists and he defense has been mediocre based on his modest 0.6 steals per game, so I don’t see Iowa being more than a point worse overall without Tucker. In fact, the Hawkeyes played very well in a 2 point loss on the road against a good Boston College team with Tucker playing just 8 minutes and going scoreless (Iowa’s game rating for that game was a few points higher than their average rating). Using this year’s games only would favor Iowa by 13 ½ points after adjusting for the glacial pace of this game (12 ½ without Tucker), but I don’t expect Northern Iowa to continue to play so poorly on defense. If the Panthers defend at the level they did last season (on a points per possession basis) then I’d favor Iowa by 9 ½ points. Either way, the line is too low and Iowa applies to a very good 128-44-4 ATS non-conference home favorite situation. I’ll take Iowa in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ and -10 points.
3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
Dr. Bob
NBA Opinions
CLEVELAND (-12 ½) over Toronto
The Cavaliers are rolling. Cleveland is now 17-3 straight up and 16-4 ATS, including 14-2 ATS as a favorite. Good teams tend to letdown against bad teams, but that has not been the case for Cleveland, who has played relatively better against worse than average teams this season. Toronto is a team that is 3 points worse than average thanks to a lack of defense (47% FG allowed) and my ratings favor the Cavaliers by 16 ½ points in this game even if I factor in the normal letdown for big favorites. Cleveland’s average margin of victory at home is 17.1 points against a schedule of teams that is a bit better than Toronto, so winning by more than 12 points shouldn’t be much of a task. The only thing keeping me from making this a Best Bet is Toronto’s history in games following a loss with star Chris Bosh in the lineup (46-24-1 ATS). Toronto is 31-11-1 ATS with Bosh after a loss when the opponent is off a win, but the Raptors are only 3-4 ATS in that role this season, including 3 straight spread losses. I’ll lean with Cleveland at -13 or less based on the line value.
SACRAMENTO (+12) over L.A. Lakers
The Kings are a bad team that doesn’t play any defense, but the Lakers may not take this game seriously and laying 11 points or more on the road in the NBA is simply too much. Road favorites of 11 points or more are just 62-92-4 ATS if the home team is coming off a loss, including the Lakers’ uninspired 106-104 win at Washington on Friday night. If the big road favorite has had no more than 1 day off then the record is just 45-79-2 ATS and the Lakers apply to a 12-42 ATS subset of that. The Kings apply to a few big dog situations too, but the line on this game should be 13 points (it opened at 13 ½ points), so some of the value of the situation has been taken away by the line move. I’ll still lean with Sacramento at +12 or more.
any chance will have california sport, young gun sport and MTi sport
Thanks
JeffersonSports
NCAA HOOPS
SAN FRANCISCO +5
TOLEDO +4.5
NBA
SAN ANTONIO -1
Donn Wagner
3* Iowa State
RAS
Towson OVER 136
CS Northridge UNDER 127
Siena OVER 136
Ted Covers
20* Detroit Pistons -4.5
Executive
300 Drake
250 Bulls
250 Suns
Ben Burns
Montreal -145
Carolina Sports
Regular Virginia Tech
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
6000* COLLEGE HOOPS CRUSHER WINNER
Purdue -11.5
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
6000* NHL LATE STEAM PUCK LINE WINNER
4 Montreal -135
6000* COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM WINNER
Villanova +2