Jeff Benton
10 dime W Mich/Rice Under
5 dime Nevada
5 dime Boston Celtics
Dr. Canada
Atl/Leafs Over 6
Oilers
Canucks
Adam Meyer
5* Houston Cougars
5* Oregon
5* W Mich
2* Oilers
Matt Fargo
8* CFB Tuesday Bowl 78% SUPREME KNOCKOUT
RICE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN
PLAY: RICE -2.5
Rice is a team that has flown under the radar this season and because of that we catch a nice number. The Owls are virtually playing a home game here as Reliant Stadium is their home away from home as it is just five minutes from the Rice campus. Obvious advantages include maintaining a consistent practice schedule, being able to sleep in their own beds and eat meals they are used to, and one unique advantage is that they won't be impacted by travel schedules. Ad in a six-game winning streak and Rice is rolling.
Western Michigan also had a very solid season, going 9-3 including a marquee win against Illinois on a neutral field. Its three losses came against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball St., all bowl teams and all on the road. I believe the record is not quite as good as it looks however as the Broncos were outgained in each of their last three games and four of their last five. The offense has the ability to be explosive but the defense allowed too many big plays and if ever there is a big play offense, it is Rice.
As with Western Michigan, all of the Owls losses came on the road and those were against a much tougher Vanderbilt, Texas and Tulsa, all bowl teams as well and better ones at that than what the Broncos lost to. The winning formula all year has been to slow down the opposing team just enough to allow the offense to rack up points. The offense has done just that in compiling a 41.6 ppg scoring average. Conversely, Western Michigan averages 29.8 ppg.
Rice quarterback Chase Clement was 6th in the nation in pass efficiency and averaged 318 passing ypg. He threw 41 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions during the regular season. His main targets are Jarrett Dillard who had a nation-best 19 touchdown catches and James Casey who had a C-USA record 104 pass receptions. Western Michigan is 96th in the nation in pass defense, yielding 249 ypg. On the other side, the Rice defense played well down the stretch and pressured the quarterback much better.
If this game does turn into a shootout which it looks like it will, Rice has the edge as it is 14-4 ATS when both teams score 28 or more points over the last three seasons. The Owls are 8-2 ATS with a total of 63 or greater. Western Michigan meanwhile does not recover well from big losses as it is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 games after a loss of 20 or more points. The Owls are poised for a 10-win season for just the second time in history and a bowl victory for the first since 1954. They get it done in front of the home crowd. 8* Rice Owls.
Larry Ness
LEGEND Play
Western Michigan enters the Texas Bowl 9-3 and its three losses have come against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball State, teams which finished the 2008 regular season with the combined records of 28-9 (.757). A win for the Broncos would give them the school's first-ever 10-win season. Rice also enters the game 9-3 and for a school which began playing football in 1912, is shooting for its-second-ever 10-win season (went 10-1 in 1949 with Tobin Rote at QB and finished 5th in the final AP poll after beating North Carolina 27-13 in the Cotton Bowl). Tim Hiller completed 66.7 percent of his passes for WMU, throwing for 3,418 yards with 34 TDs and just eight INTs. WR Simmons has 98 catches and RB West has 970 YR (5.1 YPC), leading a team which averages 121.5 YPC (4.3 YPC) on the ground. The OL does not feature a senior but it allowed only 14 sacks this year. I like Western Michigan but while this is technically a neutral site, Rice is playing in its home city of Houston, at the home of the Houston Texans, Reliant Stadium. Rice comes in on a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS), averaging 44.2 PPG in that streak. Rice's defense leaves a lot to be desired (ranks 107 on the year, allowing 34.9 PPG) but allowed 28.8 PPG over its last five. QB Chase Clement is playing the final game of his college career in what is basically a home game. He's thrown for 3.812 yards this year, completing 66.4 percent of his throws with 41 TDs and only seven INTs. He's run for 621 yards (4.4 YPC) for 11 more TDs. He's topped 300 yards in a game seven times this year, including his last four games (averaging 363 per). WR Jarett Dillard has 79 catches and 19 TDs (most TY in the nation), giving him 59 career TDs (making him the NCAA's career leader in TD catches). As good as Dillard is, James Casey may be better. He has 104 catches and has caught 12 TDs plus has six rushing TDs (231 YR). He's lined up this year at WR, RB, TE and QB. TWICE this season, he's had a game in which he's caught, run for and thrown for a TD! The Rice running game averages 144.4 YPG (4.2 YPC) and is led by Ugokwe (755 YR), who really came on at the end of the season, running for 556 yards (5.4 YPC) during the team's six-game winning streak. It's a given that the Owls have a terrible defense but how about this stat? The Owls allowed 30 points or more eight times this year but won five of those games! Rice went to the Bluebonnet Bowl in 1961 and then didn't make another bowl appearance until the 2006 New Orleans Bowl (lost 41-17 to Troy). Meanwhile, Western Michigan is playing in its second bowl in three years but just its fourth in school history (0-3 all-time). Rice head coach David Bailiff, went 3-9 in his first year but has reversed that record this year and in what is basically a home game, is poised to lead the Owls to their first bowl win since they beat Alabama 28-6 in the Cotton Bowl (following the 1953 season). Rice has a dynamic offense and has committed only 16 turnovers this year. Rice's plus-13 TO ratio is pretty impressive compared to WMU's minus-three ratio. Chase Clement is quite a player (91 TDs and 28 INTs the last three years, with 23 rushing TDs), who's had at least 325 yards of total offense in 17 of the Owls' last 19 games! Western Michigan is capable of trading points for a while with Rice but in the end, the Broncos won't be able to match the Owls score for score.
LEGEND Play on Rice
Weekly Wipeout Winner- NCAAF
The Ducks and Cowboys are both 9-3 and own high scoring offenses. Oregon is averaging 41.9 PPG, while OSU averages 41.6. The Ducks have rushed for 3,334 yards (277.8 per game / 6.1 YPC / 42 TDs) compared to 3,072 (256.0 per game / 5.6 YPC / 35 TDs) for the Cowboys. Oregon's Johnson has 1,082 YR (6.9 YPC / 12 TDs) and Blount adds 928 yards (7.1 YPC / 16 TDs). OSU's Hunter has 1,518 YR (6.7 YPC / 14 TDs) and Toston has 658 yards (7.0 YPC / 9 TDs). Both QBs also contribute to the running games, as Oregon's Masoli has run for 612 yards (5.5 YPC / 7 TDs) and OSU's Robinson for 508 yards (3.9 YPC / 7 TDs). However, OSU owns the much better passing offense. Masoli's thrown for just 1,486 yards, completing 57.0 percent with 12 TDs and four INTs. Meanwhile, Robinson has thrown for 2.735 yards, completing 67.0 percent with 24 TDs and eight INTS. Robinson's had an outstanding year but with the QB 'field' in TY's Big 12, it's almost lost! OSU also owns one of the nation's top WRs in Dez Bryant, who has 74 catches with 18 TDs plus a TE many think will play in the NFL (Pettigrew). I thinks it's fair to say this game WON'T be decided by the defenses! The Cowboys will be making their sixth bowl appearance in the last seven seasons, while the Ducks are heading to a bowl game for the fourth straight year and 12th time in 14 seasons under Bellotti. OSU's Mike Gundy entered this year on the "hot seat," as his three-year mark in Stillwater was just 18-19 prior to the '08 season, despite back-to-back bowl appearances. However, he's now got a big new contract, as his Cowboys opened the season with seven straight wins (6-0 ATS), holding opponents to 20.6 PPG. However, OSU lost three of its final five games, allowing 48.3 PPG in the three losses. That being said, one must take a look at who the Cowboys lost to. It was Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. It should be noted that OSU went 9-2 ATS in its 9-3 season while Oregon went 6-6 ATS in its 9-3 year. Oregon lost at home 37-32 to Boise St, a team we just saw manhandled by TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl (I'm taking about the way the game was played, not the final score!). Oregon's other two losses came 44-10 at USC (got outgained 598 yards to 239) and at 26-16 at Cal (a team which was just life-and-death with a less than 100% Miami-Florida team in the Emerald Bowl). One also must take into consideration that Oregon may have already played its 'bowl game." Oregon spoiled Oregon State's Rose Bowl plans on Nov 29, ending the Beavers' six-game winning streak with a 65-38 win in Corvallis. The win prevented the hated-Beavers form going to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 1964 season and also avenged a 38-31 loss (in two overtimes) in Eugene the previous year in a series affectionately named, "the Civil War." The Big 12 was BY FAR a stronger and deeper conference this year than the Pac 10 (other than USC, is any Pac 10 really that good?) and that pedigree will show up here. Mike Gundy is already in the Holiday Bowl Hall of Fame after completing 20 of 24 passes for 315 yards and two TDs in Oklahoma State's 62-14 victory over Wyoming in 1988 (his teammate was a RB named Barry Sanders). That game marks OSU's only previous appearance in the Holiday Bowl and a win here by the Cowboys will give Gundy a nice little 'daily double,' a win as a starting QB and a head coach in the same bowl game. By game's end, this one will feature a two TD spread.
Weekly Wipeout Winner on Oklahoma State
9* Revenge Rout
Steve Alford's first season at New Mexico has to be considered a success, despite the fact the Lobos didn't get an NCAA bid and the team lost its first round game in the NIT. Alford inherited a team which had won 17 and 15 games the previous two years and won 24 games during the regular season, including eight road wins. Both of those totals tied school records. The road wins were particularly impressive, as for a long time, the Lobos have been known as a tough home team in "the Pit," but one which typically 'folded' away from Albuquerque. As for New Mex St, the Aggies won 25 games two years ago under Reggie Theus (who bolted to the Sac Kings) and last year under first-year head coach Marvin Menzies, won 21 games despite a number of personnel setbacks. New Mexico lost its best player to the NBA in JR Giddens (16.3-8.8) but the return to health of Danridge, who missed all of LY with an injury, is a big plus. Danridge (13.6-3.8) leads the team in scoring TY and is joined by two similar-sized players (all are 6-5 to 6-7 swingmen), Martinez (11.0-6.2) who starts and Toppert (10.8-3.2) who comes off the bench. The 6-9 Faris (9.9-6.5) is again the team's lone "big man" of note but Alford's perimeter game is pretty good, despite its youth. Gary (8.3-4.8 APG) is back at the starting PG position after a good freshman season and is joined by two new freshman in the backcourt. McDonald (9.9-4.3) is starting at shooting guard and Garth (4.6-4.0 APG) fills in nicely for Gary at the point. New Mex State's losses from last year were pretty big, as four seniors are gone. The team's leading scorer and rebounder (Hawkins at 18.1-7.8) is the biggest loss plus two 6-11 players are no longer there. The Aggies miss Passos (10.8-7.3) and Iti (5.7-5.0), as well as guard Peete (10.8-4.7-4.1). Those losses were expected but what wasn't, was Herb Pope (11.1-6.8) last year's troubled but very talented freshman who eventually played in 16 games, wound up transferring in September to Seton Hall. Despite all those losses, the Aggies will send out a pretty talented team for tonight's game. The guard duo of Young (18.1-3.9-3.3) and Gibson (15.0) is very good plus they are joined by an excellent freshman, Laroche (4.7-4.5 APG). The 6-6 McKines (12.8-8.8) is off to a solid sophomore season and is joined in the frontcourt by two freshman, 7-0 center Rahman (7.4-4.6) and the 6-8 Gillenwater (12.9-4.4). These two schools play each other every year in a home-and-home series. New Mexico won both games in the 2004-05 season but over the last three years, the home team has taken all six games. The Lobos beat the Aggies 76-62 (as 10 1/2-point favorites) on Dec 23 in Albuquerque and tonight, the Aggies will look to "return the favor" here in Las Cruces. I 'LOVE' their chances, as with this pointspread, a win almost GUARANTEES a 'cover.' New Mexico has seemingly "reverted to form" away from home TY, getting outscored 19-3 in the final 3 1/2 minutes at Creighton in its road opener, losing in Mexico to VCU and Drake in a late-November tourney, eking out a 57-54 win at a mediocre San Diego team for its lone road win TY on Dec 10 and then losing at Texas Tech 86-78 on Dec 20. The Lobos haven't played since their Dec 23 win over the Aggies, while the Aggies beat Loyola-Marymount 104-62 at home just two days ago. That was a confidence-builder, as the Aggies shot 57.3 percent from the floor, including making 17-of-27 three-pointers. When the Aggies lost at "the Pit," the Lobos were given 28 FT attempts while the Aggies went to the line just 16 times. "The calls" wiil go the Aggies' way tonight and the scoreboard will reflect just that!
Revenge Rout on New Mex St
Las Vegas Insider - NBA
The Spurs began the year with one of the league's oldest teams (nothing new there) but also without Manu Ginobili, who was the team's leading scorer last season (19.5). Then, Tony Parker went down with an injury and the Spurs had to fight their way back from a 2-5 (1-6 ATS) start with BOTH of those key players missing. However, as the calendar gets ready to turn to 2009, the Spurs enter tonight's home game with the Bucks with a 20-10 mark, winning of 11 of their last 13 and five straight. Parker (22.1-6.6 APG) is having his best-ever scoring season, Ginobili (14.4-4.4-3.4) is rounding into form and Tim Duncan (20.7-10.4) is as always, Tim Duncan. Then there is Roger Mason (12.2) and just ask the Suns if he's any good. The Bucks come in 14-17 overall and 6-12 on the road but a solid 11-6-1 ATS in those road games. Redd (18.5) missed 14 games earlier TY but he's back now, while Jefferson (17.6-4.8) makes for a much better small forward than Yi. Villanueva (12.6-6.6) is healthy and playing well at the power forward position plus Bogut (11.5-10.7), while not flashy, keeps putting up decent numbers. Milwaukee misses Mo Williams but it's hard to argue against the good play of either of the team's two PGs this year, Sessions (12.2-3.4-4.8) or Ridnour (10.3-3.4-5.4). Milwaukee has given San Antonio fits recently, covering six of its last seven against the Spurs. That includes an 82-78 win at the Bradley Center on Nov 12 in a game in which the Bucks were without Redd and the Spurs were minus Ginobili and Parker. "All hands are on deck" for this one but the Spurs have covered just ONE of their six home games, while the Bucks are 9-4-1 ATS the last 14 chances getting eight points or more. Now here's the old "fly in the ointment" for prospective Milwaukee backers. While most teams have a tough time playing in Texas against Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, the Bucks have been just DREADFUL in the Lone Star state since the beginning of the 2003-04 season. Believe it or not, the Bucks are just 1-14 SU during that time frame and while their lone win did come at San Antonio in December of 2006, DO NOT expect the Bucks to win here. The Spurs will remember that November loss in Milwaukee and after playing five games in seven days, the Spurs have had two full days off. That's really good news for Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, who have all logged extensive minutes the last two games. Conversely, that's really bad news for the Bucks. No team much likes traveling right before the holiday and as I mentioned earlier, the last place Milwaukee wants to visit is Texas.
Las Vegas Insider on the SA Spurs
Las Vegas Sport Picks
NBA (8-2 last 10)
2* Pacers/Hawks Over 206
NHL
1* Caps/Sabres Over 6 -110
2* Leafs/Thrashers Over 6 -125
NCAAF
2* Oklahoma St. -2
2* Rice -3
3* Rice/WMU Over 73
NCAAB (3-1 last 4)
2* Clemson -3
2* Dartmouth +13
2* Butler -5
BeatYourBookie
100* Play Nevada (-1.5) over Maryland
Nevada is 6-0 ATS coming off a bye week
Nevada is 12-3 ATS coming off an OVER the total the last 3 seasons
Nevada is 1-0 ATS vs. ACC Conference Opponents
Bonus NCAA Plays
50* Play Oklahoma State (-2.5) over Oregon
Oklahoma State is 2-0 SU & ATS in Bowl Games the last 3 seasons
Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS as a favorite this season
Oklahoma State is 10-2 SU coming off a conference loss
30* Play Rice (-2.5) over Western Michigan
The Booooj
2-0 yesterday. 11-3 in Bowls.
5 Units on Maryland (+3) over Nevada
Maryland (7-5) vs. Nevada (7-5)- Nevada comes into this game featuring one of the Nation’s most prolific offenses led by QB Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick is a dual threat who passed for over 2,400 yards and rushed for over 1,100. The key for Nevada’s offense will be their ability to hang on to the football. There is no doubt that they will move the ball, but where they have found trouble this year is when they turn the ball over. On the other side of the ball Maryland will be getting back one of the country’s fastest players in Darrius Heyward-Bey. He should give the Terps offense the ability to stretch the field and loosen up the defense to get the running game going. Nevada features one of the best rush defenses in the country, allowing just over 70 yards per game, so don’t look for Maryland to run the ball all over them, just enough to stay ahead of the chains and keep the defense honest. This game will be decided by turnovers. Whoever makes less mistakes will get the win. In this one, we like the Terps. Maryland by 3-4.
Texas Bowl
Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas
50 Units on Rice (-3) over Western Michigan
Western Michigan (9-3) vs. Rice (9-3)- This figures to be one of the most entertaining games of the Bowl season as two high powered offenses meet in what should be a shootout. Western Michigan comes out of the MAC, which has been a bit of an overvalued conference this year. The Bronco’s feature an explosive passing attack led by Junior QB Tim Hiller and talented receiver Jamarko Simmons. The problem for the Bronco offense is that they have virtually no running game. Rice is also a team that likes to throw the ball all over the place, led by QB Chase Clement and his pair of talented receivers, Jarret Dillard and Tight End James Casey. The Owls do have the ability to run the ball some, which could be a difference in this game. I look for a big game out of Dillard, as there is nobody in the Western Michigan secondary that can match up with him. This one might be close early, but Rice will pull away. Rice by 14-20.
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
15 Units on Oklahoma St. (-2.5) over Oregon
Oklahoma St. (9-3) vs. Oregon (9-3)- This is another game that should be wildly entertaining as both teams feature high scoring offenses. Oklahoma St. comes in with a defense that has struggled of late, but was torched by three teams that were ranked in the top 3 at the time of the game. Oregon is more of a running team, which the Cowboy defense should be able to handle a little better than some of the explosive passing attacks they’ve faced. Oregon’s Jeremiah Johnson will be the key to the Duck’s offense as usual. I look for Oklahoma St. to be able to outscore the Ducks, behind the running of RB Kendall Hunter and QB Zac Robinson. Also look for the Cowboys to take some shots down the field to Dez Bryant. Cowboys win a shootout. Oklahoma St. by 4-10.
Pro Sports
10* Bowl GOY Rice -3
ATS Financial
3 Units Oklahoma St - 2.5
atslocks.com
Nevada vs Maryland +2.5: Maryland +2.5 (5 unit play) and Over 58 (5 units)
Western Michigan vs Rice -3: Rice -3 (10 unit play) and Over 74 (15 units)
Oregon + 3 vs Oklahoma State: Oregon +3 (5 unit play) and Under 76.5 (5 units)
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
4 STAR SELECTION
Western Michigan +3 over Rice
The Owls will have a bit of a homefield advantage when they take on the Broncos for the first-time ever in 1 of Tuesday’s late Bowl Games.
Western Michigan coach Bill Cubit believes his team is prepared for the challenge at hand.
"We’ve been to West Virginia, Missouri, Florida State, Iowa, Virginia," said coach Cubit. "That’s the way it is in our (league). I think, coming down here, what I like about it is the ticket sales that they’ve done so far. It should be a great crowd, and we know there’s going to be a lot of the Rice crowd, but at the same time, that’s just what we’re used to. So I think the venue, for us, is a lot more important than having to be the so-called visiting team coming down here."
This will be the second straight bowl games for the Broncos, but just the fourth in the team's history. Last year in the International Bowl, they were beaten by Cincinnati in heartbreaking fashion, 27-24.
The Broncos' road to the Texas Bowl started with a rough, 47-24 loss to Nebraska on the road. However, after the setback in the team's opener, Western Michigan went on a roll, winning six consecutive matchups, three of which were won by double-figures. They also added a neutral-site win over Illinois from the Big 10.
The Owls also finished the regular-season with a strong 9-3 ledger, but Rice took a different route to get there. The Owls flew out of the gates with two straight wins, but quickly fell to 2-2 with losses to Vanderbilt and Texas. Rice then finished in an impressive fashion, winning their final six games.
The Owls are participating in their ninth bowl in school history, but just their second since 1961. Rice won its first four bowl games, but the team has not tasted victory since, losing its last four postseason matchups, including the 2006 New Orleans where Rice was defeated by Troy, 41-17.
The Broncos' success offensively this season can be attributed to the team's explosive passing attack, which averaged over 300 ypg, ranking 10th in the nation. Overall Western Michigan racked up an impressive 423 total ypg, and that led to an equally strong 30 ppg. Leading the aerial assault was quarterback Tim Hiller, who completed 67% of his throws for over 3,500 yards and 34 scores. Not to be overlooked is the play of tailback Brandon West, who churned out nearly 1000 yards and eight touchdowns on the year out of the backfield.
The strength of the offense has been the weakness for the Broncos defensive unit, as the Broncos head into this bowl, surrendering almost 250 ypg through the air. On the season the team was abused for 390 total ypg, but still they gave up less than 24 ppg.
Much like their counterpart, the Owls were paced by their potent passing attack. Rice averaged 328 ypg through the air, and that ranked fifth best in the nation. Overall the Owls have dominated the opposition, averaging 472 total ypg, and that led to an equally impressive 42 ppg.
Leading the way for Rice was Conference-USA Player of the Year, Chase Clement. Clement was sensational on the season, throwing for over 3,800 yards and 41 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. The signal caller, who earned a spot on the All C-USA First Team has changed the record book in the conference, topping the charts with 96 passing touchdowns and 120 total touchdowns. On top of his passing ability, Clement also did the majority of the damage for the ground game, rushing for 621 yards an a team-best 11 scores.
Unfortunately the Owls were held back by the performance of the defensive unit, which at times simply looked awful. Rice was pummeled by the run and pass, allowing nearly 200 ypg on the ground, while also surrendering nearly 275 ypg through the air. The Owls' inability to stop an opponent led to a whopping 35 ppg scored against this defense. Pressuring the quarterback was a major problem, as the team collected just 22 sacks, and the defense was also unable to stop drives, as opponents converted on 47 percent of their third down chances and scored on 86 percent of their red zone attempts.
This matchup could very well be explosive and thrilling from start to finish. The public is jumping on the team that has the flashier offense and is playing at home, figuring this small favorite is a “safe bet”; however, this is a classic opportunity to take the contrarian point of view.
We like to play ON an underdog getting between a FG & TD of points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation. If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public.
This is also the very best time of the Bowl season to play underdogs. From Christmas through News Year’s Eve for every over-confident favorite, there's usually a motivated, quality underdog.
Another indication that the wrong team is favored here, is YPP. This gives us the opportunity to play ON a Bowl underdog with the better Yards Per Play difference. The YPP is a measure of team efficiency, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, the higher the YPP the better, and on the defensive side, the lower the better. An underdog with a higher YPP differential has the potential to control the line of scrimmage and consequently, a great chance of winning the game outright.
Western Michigan is also getting healthier for this Bowl Game, getting some vital players back in the lineup. TE Branden Ledbetter, who some consider the best player at his position in the MAC this year, didn't play in the final two games of the regular season because of an abdominal injury. He will be ready for the bowl game. CB Londen Fryar didn't play in the regular-season finale because of a toe injury. The All-MAC first-team performer is expected to play on Tuesday.
With at least 7 wins, MAC Bowl favorites and small favorites have been perfect against C-USA opponents, as shown by one of our Bowl-exclusive POWER SYSTEMS that states:
Play ON a MAC Bowl team (not an underdog of 4+ points) with 7+ season SU wins vs. a C-USA opponent.
These favorites and small underdogs are a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS ALL-TIME, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
We also like to play AGAINST a favorite that is allowing more than 5 yards per rush on the season from October on, which is the case with the leaky Rice defense.
Another Bowl Handicapping Strategy we use is to play AGAINST a Bowl favorite that is playing at home or close to home in-state. The team may be overconfident and enjoying the local “red-carpet” a little too much. Without a trip to a new and interesting place, the game may lose the interest of the players. Meanwhile, the pointspread will provide the line value to the visiting team, as the case here for the overlooked Broncos.
While Rice is the “hot” team, schools that finish with a flurry have not been able to carry that momentum over to a Bowl Game under the conditions described by another POWER SYSTEM that reads:
From December 22nd on, play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of 1½-8½ points with less than 43 days rest off 3 SU wins and not an ATS loss of 8+ points in its last game vs. a non-Independent opponent not off a shutout SU win.
Just since 2004, these teams are a horrid 0-20 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than a dozen ppg on average.
Additionally, small Bowl favorites have been flat off a home or neutral-site upset victory. This is supported by a final POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of 1½- 3½ points with 24+ days rest off a home/neutral site underdog SU win.
These teams are 0-11 ATS as far as the SportsDataBase goes, which is 1980, so such schools may actually be worse than that.
Look for an over-confident Owls team to make some critical mistakes, while the Broncos take advantage and pull the upset.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WESTERN MICHIGAN 37 RICE 28
4 STAR SELECTION
Oregon +3 over Oklahoma State
In a Bowl Game expected to be a shootout, the Cowboys of the Big 12 Conference and the Ducks of the Pac-10 will collide on the gridiron for their first-ever meeting.
Oklahoma State is making its 6th bowl appearance in the last seven years, and can tie a school record for wins in a season if it is able to knock off Oregon.
The Ducks are making their fourth consecutive post-season appearance and 12th bowl trip in 14 years under head coach Mike Bellotti. They are participating in the Holiday Bowl for the third time this decade, as they beat Texas in the 2000 version of this game before dropping a decision to Oklahoma in 2005.
Oregon also finished the regular season with a 9-3 record and tied for second in the Pac-10 with a 7-2 mark.
Oklahoma State is one of many Big 12 teams with an explosive offensive unit. The Cowboys are averaging over 41 ppg and nearly 500 total ypg, tremendous numbers by any standards. Few teams in the nation run the ball as effectively as OSU, which is posting 256 rushing ypg and 5.6 yards per carry. Kendall Hunter has been sensational for the club, as the talented tailback has rushed for over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.
Quarterback Zac Robinson has thrown for 2,735 yards and 24 touchdowns against only eight interceptions, all while completing 67% of his tosses.
The Cowboys have struggled defensively in many games this season, and they are allowing 27 ppg and 392 total ypg overall. They have been victimized for 27 passing touchdowns while registering only 11 interceptions. Opponents have been able to move the chains on 40 percent of their third-down conversion attempts, while Oklahoma State has only registered 13 sacks all season.
Oregon only scored 10 points in a loss to USC and 16 points in a setback to California. Other than those two defeats in which the offense struggled, the Ducks marched up and down the field with relative ease. They averaged 42 ppg during the regular season and averaged 478 total ypg. As good as the Oklahoma State ground attack has been, Oregon's running game has been even better. The club is rushing for 278 ypg and has reached the end zone 42 times via the run, a staggering total. Sophomore quarterback Jeremiah Massoli hasn't been asked to do too much as a passer, but he has completed 57 percent of his passes for 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also rushed for 612 yards and seven touchdowns. Jeremiah Johnson has rushed for 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns, while LeGarrette Blount has posted 928 yards and 16 scores on the ground. A good game from “Blount Force Trauma” here will give the Ducks 2 1000-yard rushers for the season.
The Ducks are allowing 28 ppg and 383 total ypg, and of the 39 touchdowns they have surrendered to opposing offenses, 24 have come through the air. Oregon has recorded 29 takeaways this season, including 14 interceptions, and the squad has posted an impressive total of 38 sacks.
As almost everyone knows, Oklahoma State's three losses have come against teams that were ranked first, second and third in the AP poll at the time of those contests. Since everyone knows that, it is reflected in the line, making the Cowboys a small favorite; however, we see numerous reasons to back the Ducks in this game.
First, our Power Ratings indicate that Oregon should be favored in this matchup. One of our Handicapping Strategies is to play AGAINST a team that is over-valued by the pointspread according to the home/road dichotomy. We test the accuracy of a line by switching the home and away teams and giving the new “visitor” 6 points for the switch of home field advantage. If the new, hypothetical line would obviously be off of what it would be in reality, the public is most likely over-reacting to recent form of one or both teams. Since we have a neutral-site game being played here, we can move the game to either team’s home field and adjust the spread by 3 points instead of 6. When doing that we can say with confidence that this game would not be a “pick ‘em” at Oregon.
As if the Cowboys need any more problems with their defense, they will be without a defensive coordinator in the game. Tim Beckman, who stayed in Stillwater for two years after helping Ohio State reach the BCS national championship, was named coach at Toledo right after the regular season was over. Head coach Mike Gundy said he will not even name a replacement until after the Holiday Bowl.
Bowl teams that suffered 2 blowout losses of more than 2 TDs in its last 3 games have not fared well under the conditions outlined in a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Before December 31st, play AGAINST a Bowl team (not an underdog of more than 7 points) with 27+ days rest off a SU loss of 15+ points in 2 of its last 3 games. Since 1995, these teams are 0-8 SU & ATS, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
Meanwhile, the Ducks qualify for numerous “PLAY ON” POWER SYSTEMS, one of which states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 3 points or underdog of 8+ points) off scoring more points in each of its last 3 games vs. an opponent not off a conference favorite SU loss.
Since 1990, these improving teams are 12-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by nearly 15 ppg on average!
While the public will be all over the Big 12 this Bowl season, we are already 1-0 fading the conference as “lowly” Northwestern easily covered the spread in their Alamo Bowl matchup with offensive-minded Missouri on Monday. Meanwhile, Pac-10 underdogs and small favorites with plenty of rest have been very competitive against Big 12 Bowl opponents. Over the past decade, Pac-10 teams with at least 26 days rest and not favored by a FG or more, are 8-0 ATS vs. the Big 12, crushing the spread by more than 15 ppg on average.
While most believer there will be no shortage of offense in this one, Oregon's defense matches up with Oklahoma State's offense better than vice versa. The Ducks will slow the Cowboys' ground game enough to put Robinson in some third-and-long situations and they will apply enough pressure on these downs to force him into making some drive-ending mistakes. On the flipside, Oklahoma State will have a tougher time slowing Oregon's running game and it lacks the pass rushers up front to force Masoli to get rid of the ball quickly.
The Cowboys have little to prove here and will likely play like it, while the Ducks want to prove themselves against a Big 12 “power” and will play like. Once the webbed ones get on a roll, there will be no looking back for the Quack Attack.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 41 OKLAHOMA STATE 24
MTi
4'* Over Clippers
4* Cavs
Bestsportspicks
NBA
SPURS -8
PORTLAND +4.5
CFB
NEVADA -2.5
OREGON - +2.5
CBB
Maryland -20
BYU -3
MISSISS. ST. -8.5
Don Wagner
4* Oregon