LENNY STEVENS
10* Rice
10* BYU
Chris Rizzo
OREGON +3.5
Ron Raymond
5* Clippers / Kings Over 192.5
5* Oregon /Oklahoma State Under 76
5* Toronto Maple Leafs -150
Western Michigan +3
Maryland +3
DOC
5-Unit NBA Game of the Month Take Washington Over New Orleans
This line just seems way off to us. The total is just at 184 and how can you string a 15-point line on the favorite when the total is so low? This Wizards team comes in confident after winning two straight, including an upset of Houston on the road last night. They have only one double-digit loss in their last six games and that was to Dallas by 11. This team has actually been playing some pretty solid defense lately and has allowed only 90 PPG in their last five contests (That includes games against Houston, Cleveland and Dallas). The Wizards have historically played well in this series. They have won and covered three straight and have covered five of the last six meetings.
4 Unit Play.Take Maryland over Nevada
A cross country match-up would seem to favor the Wolf Pack playing closer to home, but we will side with the better offensive mind in Ralph Friedgen. Both teams finished 7-5 but the WAC is not in the same league this year as the ACC. It was just Boise State and the rest of the teams were rotten. Maryland needed the time off to get healthy after playing poor at the end of the regular season and expect their batteries to be recharged. The Wolfpack defense is giving up near 400 yards a game and that will be the difference. Their offense is solid, but cannot keep up with a defense that cannot stop anybody. The Terrapins have won three of their last four bowl games and this will make it four of five.
4 Unit Play.Take Southern Miss over Ole Miss
The Rebels are from the SEC, but will get beat tonight in this battle of Mississippi. Ole Miss has been hit really hard by injuries and will be without best player Chris Warren, along with Trevor Gaskins. This team cannot overcome this hurdle and the Eagles will move to 9-4 on the season behind Jeremy Wise and a strong defensive effort.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Oregon – AiS shows a 79% probability that Oregon will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 94-63 ATS since 2002. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread and is a good team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. Oregon is in a series of strong roles for this game noting they are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Oregon HC Bellotti is also in good position to win this game. He is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half; 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Oklahoma State HC Gundy is not in a good situation for this game noting the is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry. Here is a very good money line system that will make you thousands more in seasons to come. It sports a 20-13 mark, but has made a whopping 47.3 units in profits since 1992. The most remarkable component of this system is that the average play has been a dog of +301.2 so write it down and use it for even greater gains. Play against neutral field favorites versus the money line that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take Oregon.
Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER Rice/Western Michigan – AiS shows a 73% probability that there will be 75 or more points scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-2 ATS for a remarkable 93% since 1997. Play over in non-conference games with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in a game involving two average teams within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents after 7+ games. Here is a second system that has gone 24-7 OVER for 77% since 2002. Play over with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 with a winning record on the season and in minor bowl games played in December. Rice in a powerful offensive role for this game noting they are 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons; 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 70 over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog over the last 3 seasons; 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
BEN BURNS
BOWL GAME OF MONTH
I'm laying the small number with NEVADA. The pointspread suggests that these teams are fairly equal and its true that Maryland comes from the "bigger name" conference. However, I believe that Nevada will prove to be the stronger team this afternoon. The Wolfpack have a MUCH better offense than the Terrapins. Nevada averaged 37.8 points and 37 on the road, averaging better than 500 yards of offense per game. Conversely, Maryland averaged 20.1 points per game and just 13.6 (307 yards) on the road. The Terps did have the better defensive numbers. However, Nevada's defensive weakness was against the pass and the Terps don't really have the type of passing attack to exploit that weakness. Maryland quarterback Chris Turner threw for just 11 touchdowns in 12 games to go along with a high 10 interceptions. Maryland likes to run the ball and they'll face a Nevada run defense which surrendered 71 or less rushing yards seven times this season and finished with the third best mark in the country, allowing just 73 yards on the ground. Note that despite their trouble against the pass, the Wolfpack did finish with a whopping 35 sacks. While I feel that the Wolfpack will have an easier time moving the ball, I also feel that they will prove to be the team that "wants to be here" more. While the Terps will be saying all the right things, the fact is that they wanted to be in a bigger bowl game. Six weeks ago, the Terps were 7-3 and coming off a win over a UNC team which was ranked #17 at the time. At that time, they had the Orange Bowl in their sights. However, they closed out the season with back to back losses, getting destroyed 65-24 in the process. I feel that center Edwin Williams' comments were revealing of what the Terps think about this afternoon's venue: "It's not one of those places when you're a kid you go, 'I want to go to Boise, Idaho!'" While the Terps were 1-4 on the road, the Wolfpack were 4-2 on the road. The Wolfpack, 12-8 ATS the last 20 times they were in the favorite role, are also 5-1 ATS the last six times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest. Playing in "WAC country," I look for them to improve on those stats with a solid win and cover. *Bowl GOM
ANNIHILATOR
I'm taking the points with WESTERN MICHIGAN. With this game being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, it's true that Rice will have the homefield advantage along with far more fans in attendance. However, I feel that the Broncos have enough character and experience that the venue won't be as big a factor as most people probably think. As Western Michigan coach Cubit had to say: "We've been to West Virginia, Missouri, Florida State, Iowa, Virginia. Thats the way it is in our league..." While the majority of those games that Cubit is referring to came in 2007, this is a Broncos' team which returned a whopping 17 starters from last year's team, so many of those players were around for those games. This year's team was one of the only teams to win at Buffalo, a team which lost only one other home game all year. While both teams have potent passing attacks, the Owls finished dead last in C-USA in pass defense, giving up 273.8 yards per game through the air. Western Michigan's Tim Hiller, a 6-5 junior, has had back-to-back 3,000-yard seasons and he threw a whopping 34 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions this season. In other words, Hiller should put up big numbers. Of course, Rice also has a very good quarterback. However, while the Owls allowed an ugly 34.9 points and 466.7 total yards, the Broncos allowed a respectable 23.8 and 390.3 total yards. The Broncos are a profitable 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 times that they played a game with a total ranging from +3 to -3. I'll gladly grab the points but I look for the Broncos to quiet the Rice faithful and score the outright upset. *Annihilator
MAIN EVENT
I'm taking the points with OREGON. I won with the Big 12 team (Texas) in last year's Holiday Bowl but this year, I'm backing the Pac-10. These teams both bring 9-3 records to the table and both can score plenty of points. The overall offensive numbers are almost identical with both teams scoring 41+ points per game. Note that a closer look shows that the Ducks also averaged 40 points on the road though while the Cowboys averaged just 28 in their road games. The Ducks have plenty of momentum as they closed the season with three straight victories, including a 65-38 destruction of a good Oregon State team in their finale. On the other hand, the Cowboys lost two of their final three games. Granted, those losses came against two of the best teams in the country. However, they still don't do much for a team's momentum. With both offenses expected to produce, the team with the better defense is more than likely the one which will prevail. Oregon coach Mike Belotti concurred, stating: "Historically, these two teams have scored a lot of points. It's interesting that the two teams have run the ball very, very well. But probably the team that plays the best defense will be the one that wins the game. So we'll probably be talking about the offenses going in (into the game) but probably be talking about the defenses going out." While both defenses have similar numbers on the season, the Cowboys' defense may be affected by the fact that last week defensive coordinator Tim Beckman accepted the head coaching position at Toledo and immediately left Stillwater to get involved with the Rockets' recruiting. The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they played with a line of -3 to +3. During the same span, the Ducks are 6-4 ATS when playing a game with a line in the same range. Looking back further and we find Oregon at a profitable 34-15 ATS the last 49 times it played a game with a line in that range. The Ducks also come in at 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they played with two or more week's rest between games. Look for them to improve on those stats, carrying their positive momentum from the season into tonight's big game. *Main Event
BEST BET
I'm taking the points with PORTLAND. In addition to being the final game of the year for both teams, this is the fourth and final road game for the defending champs. The Celtics, 53-69-6 ATS the last 128 times (0-1 ATS this season) they had played their previous three games on the road, have gone just 1-2 SU/ATS through the first three games of their trip. Portland has become a very tough place to play and I expect them to have their hands full again tonight. Yes, the Celtics have been good on the road but their current road stats are certainly no better than Portland's home numbers. With a big win over a bad Sacramento team last time out, Boston is now 11-3 SU and 7-7 ATS on the road for the year. Including Sunday's 45-point beatdown, the Celts are outscoring teams on the road by a little less than 10 points per game, 98.7 to 89.9. Meanwhile, the Blazers, who come in playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Boston, are 11-3 at home for the season. The Lakers are the only Western Conference team with a better record on their homecourt. The Blazers have gone 9-5 ATS in those games, outscoring opponents by an average of more than 10 points (104.4 to 91.1) per game. The Blazers come off a convincing win of their own, knocking off a decent Toronto team by a score of 102-89. Note that Portland is already 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the season when coming off a double-digit win. The Blazers have gone a profitable 11-6 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range the past couple of seasons, winning 10 of those games outright. Looking back further and we find them at 27-17-1 ATS their last 45 in that role. Look for them to improve on those stats, continuing their excellent homecourt play. *Best Bet
I'm taking the points with ARKANSAS. Oklahoma is an excellent team and has a legit star in Blake Griffin. That being said, I feel that the Sooners, who haven't played in more than a week, are over-valued tonight and that they'll have real trouble against a red hot Arkansas team which is brimming with confidence. Its also worth noting that Griffin turned the ball over six times last time out and that he's done so three times in his last eight games now. While the Razorbacks' schedule has been admittedly rather soft, that's not their fault and they've been crushing nearly every opponent that they have faced. The Hogs are a perfect 8-0 at home and they've outscored opponents by an 84.2 to 65.6 margin in those games. This is the Razorbacks' first really "big" game and they'll be extremely hungry to show that they can compete with one of the top teams in the country. Note that the Razorbacks, who have four players scoring more than 12 points per game, have now won 41 straight non-conference games. John Pelphrey is an excellent coach and he has his team playing great basketball. He knows how important this game is and I expect the Razorbacks to give a huge effort, earning at least the cover.
3G
10* DUCKS
5* W Mich
5* SC +2.5
4* Purdue -7.5
ICEMAN - Sabres
Drew Gordan
300000 Nevada
Hurley
ROI
Medium : Maryland
Medium : Oregon
C-Stars Sports
2000 Units Super Play Rice minus the points over Western Mich
1000 Units Top Play Rice/Western Mich over the total
1000 Units Oregon/Oklahoma St. over the total
50 Units Nevada minus the points over Maryland
50 Units Nevada/Maryland over the total
8-2 run with 2000/1000 Unit Plays
Tommy the Swami
DAL -12.5 vs MIN
Minnesota has been playing poor defense, especially on the road where they have allowed 106 ppg avg their last 9 aways. The defense has really slipped their lst 3 gms, allowing near 108 ppg, which puts them in a very spot in a very bad spot, 9-23 off 3 Overs in a row. The T'wolves will have little in the way of confidence as the Mavs have beaten them the last 3 in the series, ALL AT Minnesota, by 10, 16, and 23 pts. T'Wolves should let down in a BB spot here and off a nice satisfying home win vs Memphis last nite. Dallas playing very well winning and covering 6 of their last 7. The Mavs have really tightened up the defense allowing just 87 ppg their lst 5 games. The stifling defense should have a bigger impact vs a team in a BB spot. Memphis is playing their 4th game in 5 days, and is in their 2nd BB set over that span. Mavs playing their 2nd gm in 4 days and are off an easy win at the Clippers in an early Sunday game.They also have their star Nowitzki well rested after serving a 1 gm suspension. That should help in holding down Minny's best player Al Jefferson. Minn 27-48 vs Southwest S1996.
Bob Balfe
College Football
Nevada -3 over Maryland
Its not a shock to see Nevada favored here. For starters the Wolfpack have a better offense and are used to playing on the smurf turf in Boise. Maryland had a shot to get into the Orange Bowl, but because they lost their final two games they get a Tuesday afternoon game in the bitter cold on a blue playing surface. Maryland is the most hot and cold team in the nation and I do not expect them to be as focused for this game as Nevada will be. Take the favored Wolfpack.
Western Michigan +3 over Rice
Rice has the homefield advantage and the majority of the fans will be supporting them, but I think that is the only real advantage they have. This is a game in which the team that makes more stops on defense will obviously win the game. In my eyes the Western Michigan defense has shown the ability to play tight at times. Rice's defense is just awful. Western Michigan has a big time offense and should play slightly better on defense. Take WMU.
Oregon +2.5 over Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were over shadowed by the three BIG 12 teams that are getting all the attention. Those teams also were the only teams to beat Oklahoma. What all three teams had in common were superior offenses. Oregon brings a great offense into this game and actually has the ability to stop teams on defense. The Big 12 was known for its great offense mostly because the defenses stunk. Oregon is more balanced and if they did not have to run into USC every year they might be a Top 5 program. Take the Ducks.
NBA Basketball
Suns -3 over Grizzles
NCAA Basketball
Butler -5.5 over UAB
Eddie Mush
4* Heat +5.5
4* Hawks +1
6* Spurs -8
6* New Mex St -1
4* Oregon +2.5
4* NV -3
6* Rice -3
DISCOUNT SPORTS
5* Oklahoma St. -2.5
Primetime Sports Advisors
4-0 past last 2 days
2 units Maryland