California Sports
4* Purdue
3* Clev ST
3* S Miss
3* Grizzlies
3* S Ant Under
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NIAGARA OVER 148.5
Anyone see Special K's 20* Super K Bomb in hoops? Thanks!
Maddux Sports
3 units on Milwaukee +8
3 units on LA & Sacramento Over 191
3 units on Seton Hall +13.5
3 units on W Michigan +3
Andrew Powers
Buffalo -120
Alatex
Tulsa
Dr. Bob
**DAYTON (-9) over George Mason
Dayton is 11-1 straight up and the only game they’ve lost was a game at Creighton in which they were in a very negative situation (I used Creighton as a Best Bet in that game). I used Dayton for a Best Bet winner over Marshall last week and the Flyers apply to a very good 194-85-7 ATS momentum situation tonight. George Mason is a solid team, but the Patriots haven’t faced a superior team all season and they tend to perform better when they are the better team (GM is 83-51-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points under coach Larranaga, but 60-78-1 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or getting points). George Mason has also had trouble visiting teams that are playing well, as the Patriots are 24-47-1 ATS under coach Larranaga in road games against teams coming off a win, including 12-31 ATS against a team that is also off a spread win and 9-25 ATS if George Mason is off consecutive wins (4-19 ATS if off 2 wins and opponent off a win and spread win). My ratings favor Dayton by 8 ½ points and I’m willing to give up ½ a point of line value to play the strong situation. I’ll take Dayton in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 3-Stars at -8 or less.
NBA Opinion
New York (+5) over CHARLOTTE
The Knicks have been a pretty inconsistent team, covering 9 of 10 games before dropping their last 4 games to the number. New York has been consistent beating bad teams, however, as the Knicks are 8-1 straight up against the bottom 11 teams in the league based on my ratings (including a win over Charlotte), with their only loss to a bad team being to Minnesota on Friday. New York applies to a 66-23 ATS situation that is based on their current 6 game losing streak and a 40-10 ATS subset of that angle applies. The Bobcats are improved since their trade with Phoenix and my ratings favor the Bobcats by 6 points, so I’m not going to make this game a Best Bet. However, I’ll lean with New York at +5 and I’d make the Knicks a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more
EXECUTIVE
250 W Mich + 3
250 Okla St -1
250 Illinois
No Stan Sharp per the boss Sorry
Scott Spritzer
Butler
Dartmouth
Seton Hall
Illinois
Pacific
Dave Cokin
Delaware (Hat)
S Carilina
Tulsa
Bobcats
VictoriousPlay
2* San Antonio Under 187.5
2* New Orleans Under 184.5
Sebastian
100* Portland (NBA)
20* Niagra
20* South Carolina
ROBERT FERRINGO
4.5-Unit Play. Take #541 Oklahoma (-5.5) over Arkansas
Arkansas has been beating people by 20 and 30 points - but they haven't played anyone. Of their 10 games, six of them have come against teams ranked No. 230 or lower. The other four were between No. 198 and No. 101, and Arkansas has a loss, a two-point win and then two unimpressive wins against mediocre teams (including an nine-point home win over No. 198 Austin Peay.) Oklahoma is a national title contender. They have seven wins over the Top 75 and two true road wins by an average of around 19 points. Arkansas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 against the Big 12 and Oklahoma is simply out of their league. The Sooners won by 11 points at home last year, and they are even more talented this time around (playing against an Arkansas team that is about one-quarter as talented.) Yeah, the Razorbacks might hang around. But I'll be shocked by anything less than an 8- or 10-point win by the Sooners.
2-Unit Play. Take #540 Southern Miss (-2.5) over Mississippi
Southern Miss has been an underachiever for a couple years now, but they should be able to pull themselves together in order to get this rivalry win. Ole Miss is without two of its three best players - Chris Warren and Eniel Polynice - who are both lost for the season to injury. That is their starting backcourt right there, and they have played just one game without the pair. They're still adjusting, and now go on the road to face a Southern Miss squad that has a wealth of experience and that has been playing better as of late. Ole Miss has played four teams in the Top 150 - they lost by nine, they lost by 33, they lost by 2 and they lost by 11. Two of those were on a neutral court and one was at home, and all four of them came with No. 2 scorer Warren running the show. Last year this was a six-point game late, but the Rebels scored 14 unanswered to put it away. This is virtually the same USM team and a significantly weaker Rebels club. This is the Eagle's "biggest nonconference game of the year" according to its coach, and I think they play accordingly.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #547 New Mexico (+1.5) over New Mexico State
I know that NMSU plays out of their minds at home, but I just think New Mexico is a much more talented team here. They beat the Aggies by 16 in The Pit and they dominated the boards 41-25. If that happens again here then this one will be over quickly. The Lobos have won seven of the last 10 meetings outright and I just think they are much better than a very below-average NMSU squad. I'm going to be betting against the Aggies a lot in the second half of the year. And if they do happen to get us here, you can bet that we'll get three times this much back on them over the next few weeks after their obvious letdown.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #538 Tulsa (+3) over BYU
BYU has had a 10-day break since their gut-wrenching loss to Arizona State. Now they go on the road in a kind of tricky place to play just a few days before a huge home game with a ranked Wake Forest team. So this is sort of a letdown/look ahead spot here against a Tulsa team that plays good defense and has a lot of experience. Tulsa got off to a slow start, but this is a team that will make some noise in Conference USA. BYU has alternated L-W-L-W-L all season against the spread. They won their last game - a game in which they played out of their minds - so look for them to lose this game outright and keep up their trend.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Cleveland State (-1.5) over Wright State
Wright State has gotten healthy and they are playing much, much better ball now that they have some pieces back. But I still just don't think that they are very good and I don't think that they should be in the top tier of the Horizon. Cleveland State has proven that it is legit and this is a solid tournament-caliber team. The road team has actually won this matchup five of the last six times and I look for that to continue. Wright State is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and they are being overvalued on their home floor here as well.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #525 Toledo (+8.5) over Delaware
These are two of the shakiest, sketchiest, downright worst wagers in the country. So why bother? Because this is WAY too many points for this game and the number should be closer to 3.0. No way I can pass up on a line that is nearly triple what I think it should be - no matter who is playing. Toledo is the worst road team in the country, hand's down, but the oddsmakers have clearly overadjusted their lines on the road. Toledo has played a pretty tough schedule - at Florida, at Xavier, at Cleveland State, against Illinois-Chicago, against UMass and Houston - and that's played a big role in their putrid start. But Delaware is just 1-4 at home, and their best win was against the No. 170 team in the country. That's not impressive to me. And I see this one being a two-possession game rather than a double-digit blowout.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #519 Clemson (-3) over South Carolina
This play kind of fits the theme: South Carolina hasn't played anyone. So while they definitely could win this game, they haven't proven anything and they haven't proven that this line should be in this range. I actually think it should have been double, and I was kind of hoping to catch the home dog getting 6.5 or 7.0 point. Then it would have been enticing. But laying just three points is a no-brainer here. The core of this Clemson team is the same unit that was taking North Carolina to the limit in the ACC Title Game last March. They are No. 10 in the country in scoring, No. 61 in defense, they shoot the three well, they rebound, and they defend. Further, they have road wins over Miami, Illinois, and Charlotte and a neutral court win over Temple. That's tough. South Carolina is pretty good. They'll be one of my money teams in SEC play and will be a great underdog bet in conference. But they have played exactly two of their 10 games against teams ranked inside the Top 225 - and they are 1-1 against Jacksonville State (No. 140) and Charleston (No. 137). Clemson is a Top 20 team that will be up for this rivalry game.
1-Unit Play. Take #535 UW-Milwaukee (+11.5) over Illinois-Chicago
UI-C has been a great bet and is a true Horizon sleeper. But they are one of those teams that are a better play as an underdog or as a 'pick' than they are as a large favorite. Milwaukee has some athletes and they play tough for 40 minutes. They won't let the Flames run away with this one. The underdog is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings and 7-4 ATS in the last 11. The spread between these two has only been in double-digits once over the last six years and the underdog covered that one as well. UW-M can shoot and defend the 3, and now that they have Ricky Franklin and Avery Smith finally playing together they can do some work.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #531 UAB (+10.5) over Butler (7 p.m.) AND Take #533 Seton Hall (+17.5) over Syracuse
I am still planning on betting against Butler more than I bet on them in the second half of the year. I still don't think they are as good as they have played and I think that UAB is going to give them some trouble here. UAB has played the toughest schedule in the country, so they aren't going to be intimidated by Hinkle Fieldhouse. I also know that Butler doesn't the the athletes to defend Robert Vaden and Paul Delaney, so those two should be able to kind of do what they want. Butler will likely win this one down the stretch when the Blazers' tired legs start to kick in. But UAB shouldn't get blown out in this one because of the way they shoot the three-ball.
Since the start of the 2003 season, Syracuse is 19-36 ATS as a double-digit favorite. They are overvalued because of the return of Devendorf and the fact that they are coming off a huge win at Memphis (which tells me they might be poised for a letdown.) Syracuse is a great underdog and a poor chalk. Always have been. Seton Hall is as streaky and as sketchy as they come. But if they have the talent to beat USC I can see them coming in, knocking down some shots, and making this one interesting. SU has played three other teams - Cornell, Richmond, Virginia - that rate out around the same level as Seton Hall. The 'Cuse is 3-0, but the average win was just six points.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #558 Colorado State (+6.5) over Buffalo (Midnight) AND Take #561 UTEP (+7) over Santa Clara
Colorado State and UTEP are two of the teams that I have bet the most this year - with various results. I have been playing them because I know that they have talent and I know they are strong underdogs. All four of the teams involved in this bet are playing their third game in as many days, so I don't see anyone blowing anyone else out. I actually think we have both of the better teams getting a load of points. Santa Clara plays slow, so even if they beat UTEP is will be close (or UTEP will run past them for a win). Colorado State seems to have gotten it together, and I don't know if Buffalo has two road wins in a row against teams from better conferences up its sleeve.
That's it for today. Writeups to follow. Add a few more games because over the last two days I have gone 16-6 on the plays that I've typed up, that graded out as rated plays, but that I left off the board in favor of the games I played. It's getting really old and really frustrating. So today I'm adding more games to the card. I could play 5 plays for 4.0 Units each of about 20 Units or I could put forth the amount that I have for 19.5 Units. Same exposure, different looking card. And that's why I throw those teasers on as well. All four of those games could have been 1-Unit plays. But then I'm sure people would be annoyed about the number of plays. Well, I like those games, I think they are solid moneymaking spots, and I want to help you earn some cash. Period. Why else would I put them out there?
Not only have I gone back and tracked the graded plays I haven't posted, but I also went back and tracked how "my teams" have performed after we lose a game in which we bet on/against them. It's enough to make me put a fist through a god damn wall. I can't tell you how many times we bet on a team like, say, Cleveland State over Bulter. They lose in a garbage beat, and then cover like five of six. Or UTEP. Or against Santa Clara or NMSU. We bet on Arizona State, they win but don't cover by 2 points, then the next game they win by 40 when we haven't bet on them. We fade UAB and they win by 26, then we don't fade them the next time and they lose by 20. How many tough beats have we taken with Colorado State? Then we back off them they cover two straight after losing three straight on them. It's been that type of stuff, so I'm not shying away from plays. It's been happening all month, so now I'm getting back to what started our success: playing on the teams that I have tabbed and playing against the teams I have tabbed against. I think we'll be successful.
Also, if you don't want to play all these games, just play Oklahoma and Southern Miss. There you go. Two plays, my top-rated, and if you win, great. If you lose, just keep track of everything and we'll honor that for service extension. It's really easy.
Here are the plays I left off the board today, but they all graded out as rated plays: Chattanooga (+6), Tennessee State (+18.5), Illinois (+7), Wisconsin-Green Bay (-1), James Madison (+8) and Vermont. Last night my two "leans" were Kentucky in the first half and Charleston. Naturally, both won. Had I just arbitrarily swapped out two of the others for those two we probably would have had a winning night. So there you go.
Yankee Capper
NCAA Hoops
5 Units - Maryland -20
5 Units - Butler -6
5 Units - Oklahoma -5.5
4 Units - Clemson -2.5
NHL
5 Units - Edmonton Oilers -170
5 Units - Toronto Maple Leafs -145
5 Units - Detroit Red Wings -145
4 Units - Buffalo Sabres -120
NBA
5 Units - Boston Celtics -5.5
4 Units - Phoenix Suns -4.5
Sorry.