Big Al
At 7 pm, our Tuesday Night NCAA Football Game of the Year is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders plus the points over Troy State. In it's last game, MTSU lost 34-24 to La Lafayette as a 13.5-point home favorite, and the Blue Raiders now fall into one of my best College Football systems which plays on certain road teams to bounce back from upset losses. This system is 87-29 ATS since 1980, including 5-1 this season. To share in the Conference Championship, Middle Tennessee needs to defeat Troy State on Tuesday, and then hope that the Trojans lose their final game to Florida Atlantic. Sun Belt Conference underdogs of +7 or more points are a solid 27-8 ATS off a conference loss, including 17-3 vs. a foe off a win. Take Middle Tennessee.
Brandon Lang
TUESDAY
25 DIME
TROY
5 DIME
Lakers
Nuggets
Burns NBA
UNDER suns/kings (212 or better)
Game: Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 11/20/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Suns and Kings to finish UNDER the total. Both teams have played a few "overs" in a row, which has caused tonight's over/under line to become extremely high. I feel that provides us with terrific value on the UNDER. The Suns have seen the UNDER go 16-11-1 since the start of the 2005 season when their previous three games had all finished above the total. Despite their most recent game away from Phoenix (at Houston on Saturday) finishing above the total, the Suns have still seen the UNDER go 4-2 on the road this season. Those six games averaged 205.5 points. Meanwhile, the Kings have seen the UNDER go 2-2-1 in their five home games with those games averaging 204 points. However, keep in mind that those numbers are inflated due to the fact that the Kings played a double overtime game vs. the Knicks here on Friday. That game would have finished below the number (had 194 in regulation) but the teams combined for a whopping 47 points in overtime. Looking back to last season and we find that the two meetings in Phoenix were both high-scoring contests which finished above the total. However, the two games here at Sacramento both fell below the number with combined scores of 207 and 203. These teams will face each other again, at Phoenix, tomorrow night. That's worth noting as the UNDER is 14-6 the last 20 times that the Suns played the front-end of back to back games and a perfect 6-0 (13-7 L20) the last six times that the Kings were in that situation. Look for tonight's final combined score to fall beneath the big number once again as the UNDER improves to 6-2 the last eight times that the Suns were favored by eight points or less. *Blue Chip
PACERS (pick'em or better)
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers Game Time: 11/20/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Indiana Pacers Reason: I'm taking the points with INDIANA. The Lakers have been playing well lately and have won three in a row. However, they're just 9-14 ATS (8-15 SU!) since the beginning of 2005 after having won their previous three games and they've also had troubles here of late. I expect them to stumble against an Indiana squad which "got the monkey off its back" with a big win last time out. As Pacers' forward Shawne Williams said after the 20 point blowout win over Utah: "It feels a whole lot better to get that monkey off our back. A lot of people were getting disgruntled because everybody is competitors in here. Nobody likes to lose." I expect the Pacers, who have six different players averaging double-digits in scoring, to build off that strong performance. The win vs. Utah came on Saturday, which is worth mentioning as the Pacers are a profitable 19-8-2 ATS since the start of the 2005 season when playing with two day's rest in between games. Both teams play again tomorrow night. Thats noteworthy as the Packers are 11-8-1 ATS the last 20 times they played the front-end of back to back games while the Lakers are an awful 1-10 ATS (2-9 SU) the last 11 times they played the front-end of back to back games, most recently losing by 15 at San Antonio. Note that the Lakers are also just 2-9-1 ATS the last 12 times they were listed as favorites of four points or less. The Pacers are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times they hosted the Lakers winning by an average of nearly 15 points per game. Look for homecourt to prove the difference once again. *Annihilator
Burns NHL
CALGARY
Game: Colorado Avalanche vs. Calgary Flames Game Time: 11/20/2007 9:35:00 PM Prediction: Calgary Flames Reason: I'm laying the price with CALGARY. The Avalanche have been terrific at home. However, they've really struggled away from Colorado, losing their last two road games by a combined score of 10-2. They've been particularly poor when playing road games which have an over/under line of 5.5, as tonight's game does. In fact, the Avs are just 1-7 when playing a road game with an over/under line of 5.5 this season, bringing them to 11-21 their last 32 in that situation. Conversely, during the same stretch, Calgary is a profitable 35-18 when playing a home game with an over/under line of 5.5. Having lost all three games in this series so far this season, the Flames should be extremely motivated. The Flames have had real trouble at the Pepsi Center in Colorado, where the teams will meet again on Saturday night. Knowing that, look for the Flames to give a maximum effort here as they "hold serve" at home and improve to 7-3 the last 10 times they were a host in this series. *Best Bet
Larry Ness' Superstar Triple Play (15-5 BKB run / 1st STP this year in CBB!)
My three STPS are on NC-Wilmington (7:00 ET), Valparaiso (8:00 ET) and St Mary's (10:00 ET).
Eric Gordon was one of the top recruits in the country and the 6-foot-4 Gordon set a school record for points by an Indiana player in his first game with 33 in a win over Chattanooga last week. He followed that up with a game-high 21 in a 100-49 rout of Longwood on Sunday. Kelvin Sampson has more than just Gordon, as sophomore PG Bassett has averaged 17.0 points to go along with 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. Senior DJ White (6-9), who averaged a team-high 13.8 points last season, is scoring 14.5 per game so far and that's the average for Jordan Crawford, another standout freshman guard. However, don't sell NC-Wilmington short. Coming off a 25-win season two years ago, the Seahawks went just 7-22 in Benny Moss' first year but this team has some talent. Senior TJ Carter, MVP of the CAA tournament in 2005-06, missed all of LY with an injury but has averaged 16.5-3.5-5.5 in two games TY. His backcourt partner, senior Daniel Fountain, is averaging 21.5. Up front, two more seniors, the 6-10 Kuljanin averages 19.5-14.5 and the 6-9 Hendley, 14.5-9.0. Indiana was 15-0 at home LY and looks for its 20th straight home win tonight but expect the senior-laden Seahawks to "hang around." STP on NC-Wilmington.
I realize that Vandy made it to the Sweet 16 LY but this Valpo team is tough. Homer Drew returns all five starters and his top-seven point producers from LY's team. Vandy returns an excellent nucleus of seniors in swingman Foster (21.0-5.0), guard Gordon (14.0-4.0 APG) and the 6-9 Neltner (7.5-5.0). The 'Dores have also added 6-10 freshman Ogilvy (19.0-6.5) but Vandy has typically been rather 'soft' inside Valpo counters with 7-1 senior MacLeod (9.00 and 6-10 freshman in Bouchie (9.5) to battle inside. Eight players average at least 7.5 PPG, led by the one-two guard combo of Loyd and the 6-8 Haanpaa (both average 12.0 PPG). Expect the Crusaders to "hang around" in this game as well. STP on Valparaiso.
Ernie Kent will lead the Ducks in a road game against Saint Mary's tonight, the school that gave him his first college head coaching job. Kent currently has the Ducks at 4-0 and 11th in the AP poll, but in 1996-97, he led the Gaels (off to a 3-0 start) to their only West Coast Conference title. Despite losing the Pac-10's leading scorer in Aaron Brooks, Oregon has yet to suffer a defeat this season. The Ducks are coming off an 85-61 road victory over Portland on Saturday that came without starting guard Bryce Taylor (sprained shoulder). Malik Hairston scored 24 points, his third straight game with at least 20 points, and freshman Kamyron Brown had 10 points and 10 assists while filling in for Taylor. Maarty Leunen, at 6-9 and the team's lone big man, is averaging 15.3 points, while 3-point sharpshooter, the 5-6 Tajuan Porter, is scoring 16.5 per game. Watch out for St Mary's, though. Center Omar Samhan, a 6-foot-11 sophomore, had a career-high 25 points in his last game and he could create matchup problems for a small Oregon team (Leunen is its tallest starter). Samhan is averaging 16.3-8.0, while teammate Diamon Simpson, a 6-7 forward, is pulling down a team-best 8.7 a contest plus scoring 10.0 PPG. Another 6-7 forward, OLeary, averages 10.7-3.7. A trio of Australian players have also contributed for Saint Mary's, especially 5-10 freshman PG Patrick Mills, who has averaged 10.3 points, 5.0 assists, 4.0 steals and just 2.0 turnovers to start his career. A little home cookin' makes St Mary's the play. STP on St Mary's.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer's CBB Road Warrior Game of the Week! *15-2, 88% Run!
My Road Warrior is a play on Minnesota. Tubby Smith has already brought in a disciplined approach and everyone is buying into his philosophy. The Gophers finished 9-22 last season, a reversal of the record is not out of the question. UM will be a bear on defense with four returning starters, including three of the conference's best seniors in forward Dan Coleman, center Spencer Tollackson, and guard Lawrence McKenzie. This team is a real sleeper in the Big-10 and I believe they'll end the season with an upper-division finish in the conference standings. Meanwhile, this promises to be a long season in Ames, Iowa. In three games thus far, including a loss to Bradley, the Cyclones have yet to finish a game with as many assists as turnovers. ISU had a 10-to-16 ratio against Bradley, 16-to-23 against Centenary, and 12-to-15 against Winston Salem. Now, they'll face the toughest, in your face defensive attitude they've faced yet. The line doesn't represent the improvement of Minnesota and I believe the Gophers will win this one by 10 points. Minnesota is my Road Warrior GOW. Thanks! GL! Scott
Larry Ness' 15* Blowout GOW (22-5 overall run / 9-3 NBA run the last six days!)
My 15* play is on the Was Wizards at 7:05 ET. The Wizards expect to get Arenas back in the lineup Tuesday night when they host Philadelphia. After opening the season with five consecutive defeats, Washington is now looking to even its record with its fifth straight win. Arenas sat out the Wizards' most recent victory, a 109-90 rout of Portland on Saturday, due to lingering complications from offseason knee surgery. However, coach Eddie Jordan expects his star back to face the 76ers. The Wizards have held their opponent to exactly 90 points three times during their winning streak and limited Minnesota to 89 in the other game. After allowing an Eastern Conference-worst 104.3 points per game last season, the Wizards are allowing just 96.7 points in 2007-08.T they've also scored more than 100 points in each victory. Arenas (22.4-4.4-5.9), Butler (21.4-7.2) and Jamison (19.1-9.1) are a great trio plus center Haywood has remained healthy, averaging a double-double (10.2-10.3). The 76ers are struggling. The team had lost four straight (0-3-1 ATS), before making a remarkable comeback last Friday. Philadelphia missed its first 14 shots of the game and trailed by as many as 25 points before beginning its comeback. Louis Williams scored all 19 of his points in the second half, and Andre Iguodala had a team-high 22 points for the 76ers, who scored 65 points in the second half. Philly hasn't played since and the team will be without Kyle Korver (groin) in this one. Iquodala (18.3-6.7-5.0) is joined by PG Miller (13.9-4.3-4.2), SG Green (11.8), center Dalembert (10.4-8.3) and NOT MUCH ELSE! Expect Washington to roll. Blowout GOW 15* Was Wizards.
Good Luck...Larry
Sports Advisor:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Middle Tennessee (5-6, 6-4 ATS) at Troy (7-3, 7-2 ATS)
Troy looks to move a step closer to its second consecutive Sun Belt Conference championship when it hosts league rival Middle Tennessee in a nationally televised contest.
Since opening the season with consecutive blowout losses at Arkansas and Florida, Troy has won seven of its last eight, going 6-1 ATS in lined games. The Trojans, who topped Western Kentucky 21-17 in a non-lined contest in its most recent game on Nov. 10, are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in the Sun Belt Conference, one game ahead of Florida Atlantic, which visits Troy next weekend.
Like the Trojans, Middle Tennessee’s last game was on Nov. 10, when the Blue Raiders had a four-game winning streak snapped in a 34-24 home loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as a 13½-point favorite. Middle Tennessee produced just 256 total yards while allowing 528, the third straight game in which it got outgained.
The Trojans edged Middle Tennessee 21-20 as a 7½-point road underdog a year ago, a victory that gave Troy the Sun Belt title. Prior to last year, the favorite had gone 4-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry.
The Blue Raiders, who have followed up a 5-0 ATS run with consecutive non-covers, are 4-2 in Sun Belt games (3-3 ATS). On the bright side, after losing its first three road games, Middle Tennessee has won three in a row on the highway (1-2 ATS).
Troy, which has cashed in three straight lined contests. has played just three home games, winning all three by double digits and covering the number each time.
Troy is on ATS streaks of 10-1 in games played on grass, 6-1 in conference games and 6-1 against losing teams.
Middle Tennessee is on ATS runs of 8-3 against winning teams, 8-3-1 in Sun Belt contests and 4-0 following a bye.
The under is 4-2 in Middle Tennessee’s last six, 4-1 in Troy’s last five lined games and 2-0 in the last two meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY and UNDER
NBA
Toronto (5-5, 4-5-1 ATS) at Dallas (7-2, 5-4 ATS)
The Mavericks look to extend a couple of winning streaks when they conclude a four-game homestand by hosting the Raptors at American Airlines Center.
Dallas is 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS), with three of the wins coming during this homestand. The only non-cover was on Saturday, when the Mavericks beat Memphis 108-105, falling way short as a 14-point chalk.
The Raptors have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last four games, including Sunday’s 106-100 loss to the Warriors as a 6½-point home favorite. Toronto is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games (1-1-1 ATS on the road).
Dallas has gotten the best of the Raptors the last seven times they’ve met. However, Toronto is 3-1 ATS in the last four clashes, with three of the games decided by a total of five points.
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five series meetings.
The Mavs have topped the total in six of nine games, including four of five at home. The over is also 4-1-1 in the last six Dallas-Toronto battles overall and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
Chicago (2-7 SU and ATS) at Denver (7-3, 6-4 ATS)
The slumping Bulls continue their six-game, 11-day road trip when they head to the Pepsi Center to face the surging Nuggets in the Mile High City.
Chicago followed up Saturday’s 19-point rout of the Clippers at the Staples Center with Sunday’s ugly 106-78 loss to the Lakers in the same arena. The Bulls have struggled offensively all year (87.9 points per game), scoring more than 97 points just twice, and they lost both of those games.
The Nuggets come into this one on a 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak, including three straight wins at home last week over the Cavaliers (122-100), Blazers (110-93) and Knicks (115-83). George Karl’s team has scored 110 points or more in all five wins during their streak.
Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, while the Bulls are 1-4 SU and ATS on the highway.
These teams have split their last six meetings over the last three years, with the home team going 4-2 SU. However, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Also, the Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in the last eight series battles.
Denver is on a 21-6 ATS roll against teams from the Central Division, including 2-0 SU and ATS this year.
The over is 3-0 in the last three Bulls-Nuggets battles and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Illinois (3-0, 1-2 ATS) vs. Duke (3-0, 1-1 ATS), at Maui
Duke looks to continue its dominance in the Maui Invitational when it battles Illinois in an intriguing semifinal matchup.
Duke had no trouble with Princeton in last night’s opening-round game, jumping out to a 31-4 lead and rolling 83-61 for its third straight victory of at least 20 points to start the season. The Blue Devils are now 10-0 all-time in Maui, with six of the wins coming by at least 20 points. However, they gave up a bucket with 20 seconds left, costing them the spread-cover as a 23-point favorite.
Illinois followed Duke’s romp over Princeton with an equally easy 77-54 rout of Arizona State as a four-point favorite. The Illini clearly adjusted to their surroundings after struggling to win 79-77 as a three-point favorite in a non-conference contest at Hawaii on Saturday.
Going back to March, Duke is mired in a 1-5 ATS slump, including 0-3 ATS in neutral-site games. On the bright side, under coach Mike Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils are 85-10 SU in November, including 36-2 since 2000.
Despite Monday’s blowout win, Illinois is still just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 neutral-site affairs.
The Blue Devils are averaging 96.7 points per game, while allowing just 59.3 ppg. Meanwhile, Illinois is putting up 73 ppg and yielding 62 ppg.
The over is 5-1 in Duke’s last six lined contests. However, while its game against Arizona State last night hurdled the total, Illinois is still on a 47-23-3 “under” run, including 13-2-2 in the last 17.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
(2) UCLA (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. (10) Michigan State (3-0, 2-1 ATS),
at Kansas City, Mo.
The season’s first matchup of Top 10 teams comes from the Sprint Center in Kansas City, where UCLA battles Michigan State in the finals of the College Basketball Experience Classic.
UCLA kept its perfect record intact with Monday’s 71-59 victory over Maryland, cashing as a 10-point favorite. All four of the Bruins’ wins this year have come by double digits, and they’ve covered the number in each of their last three.
Michigan State advanced to the finals of this event by holding off Missouri 86-83, barely covering as a 1½-point favorite. The Spartans nearly blew a 10-point halftime lead, but held on by shooting 53.8 percent from the field and making 26 of 31 free-throw attempts.
Bruins freshman center Kevin Love recorded a double-double against Maryland, finishing with 18 points and a game-high 16 rebounds. Love is averaging 20 points and 11.8 rebounds while shooting 59 percent from the field in his young collegiate career.
The 59 points UCLA gave up last night were a season-high. Overall, the Bruins are yielding just 50 points per game. Tonight, they face a productive Spartans offense that’s scored 86, 83 and 86 points in its first three games.
UCLA is on a 6-3 ATS run, including 4-2 ATS on neutral courts.
Going back to last season, Michigan State has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last six games.
The under is 3-1 in UCLA’s four lined games this year and 7-2 in its last nine going back to last March. However, the over is 5-2 in Michigan State’s last seven contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
Sports Gambling Hotline
3♦ DENVER -7
Denver ended their most recent road trip with outright wins and covers at Washington and Indiana, and they have come back home only to extend their winning ways to 5 straight wins and covers as they enter play tonight against the disappointing Chicago Bulls. The Bulls have just 2 outright wins this season, and they are a dismal 1-4 both straight up and against the spread on the road this year. This is game 4 of a 6-game coast-to-coast road swing, and playing in the thin air for the 4th time in 6 nights is going to take its toll on the Bulls this evening. With Denver rolling the hot dice right now, winning and covering 5 in a row, we are going to lay the points with the Nuggets as they hand the Bulls another loss. Play on the Nuggets.
Michael Cannon
Tuesday's Plays...
15 Dime –
TROY
Lay the points with Troy tonight when they host league rival Middle Tennessee State.
Troy is a hot team right now, having won seven of its last eight, going 6-1 ATS in that span. They lead the Sun Belt Conference by one game over Florida Atlantic, which visits Troy next weekend.
I like the Trojans quarterback, Omar Haugabook. He is a do-everything player who has passed for 2,516 yards and rushed for another 466. More importantly he has accounted for 25 total touchdowns, with 15 passing, nine rushing and one receiving.
Haugabook should give the Blue Raiders defense fits, as they rank 93rd in the nation allowing 194.1 rushing ypg.
Middle Tennessee State had their season go up in flames when they lost at home to Louisiana-Lafayette in their last game, 34-24. The Blue Raiders were outgained 528-256 as a 13 ½-point chalk in that contest.
You have to think they might come out a little flat in this game tonight, despite the fact Troy is one of their conference rivals.
They also have a question at quarterback, as Dwight Dasher is suffering from a knee injury but is listed as probable for tonight’s game. If Dasher goes down, the Blue Raiders may get run out of the stadium tonight.
Troy will definitely be up for this game, as it’s just their fourth home contest of the season. They have won all three of their previous home games by double digits, covering the number each time.
Troy is on ATS streaks of 10-1 in games played on grass, 6-1 in conference games and 6-1 against losing teams.
Lay the points as Troy comes through with the home win and cover.
10 Dime –
NUGGETS
Take the Nuggets tonight as the home chalk over the Bulls.
Denver is red hot right now, having won five straight games. They are averaging 115.6 ppg while allowing only 94.8 during the streak. They are shooting 50.2 percent from the floor, including 41.0 percent from 3-point range during their run.
The Bulls have struggled out of the gate, winning just two of their first seven, including a 1-4 mark on the road. They are shooting poorly from the field and will have to contend with the absence of Luol Deng, who is listed as out for tonight’s game because of lower back pain.
Chicago is playing its fourth road game in six days and fatigue could be a factor tonight.
Lay the points as Denver keeps rolling with the home win and cover.
5 Dime –
UNC-WILMINGTON
Take the points with Uncw tonight when they visit Indiana.
The mid-major Seahawks will not be intimidated playing in the Big Ten house of the Hoosiers. We are getting good value with Uncw here because they are off a down year in which they won only seven games last season.
The main reason for their downfall last year was the loss of leading scorer T. J. Carter, who missed the whole year with an injury.
Now he’s back and he has a couple of frontcourt options in Todd Hendley and Vladimir Kuljanin who will provide tough, inside play.
There’s no question Indiana is a strong team, as evidenced by their No. 8 ranking. But a lot of their impact players are true freshmen or first-year junior college kids. That means they could take approach this game as a gimmie, which would be a big mistake against a Uncw team looking to bounce back from a miserable 2006-07 season.
Take the points as Uncw keeps it within the number and gives the Hoosiers a bit of a scare in the process.
VALPARAISO
Take the points with Valpo tonight when they visit Vanderbilt.
The Crusaders return their top seven scorers from a year ago, so they are a team that Vanderbilt shouldn’t take lightly. Valpo plays small, but they have good shooters that can keep them within the number tonight against a Vanderbilt team that has a notoriously soft side.
The Commodores will basically see a lot of themselves tonight in the Crusaders and I expect Valpo’s outside game to give them some trouble trying to pull away here.
Take the points as Valparaiso stays within the number on the road.
Joel Tyson
3*WARRIORS +2
Are you serious? There is actually a game the Knicks are favored in. These team is not only awful, they are the laughing stock of the NBA. Is Marbury going to play, or is he going to be mad at Isiah, and stomp his feet all the way home? What a joke. Anyway the Warriors come in winners of their last two, after a sluggish start to the season. The Knicks will be glad to return home, even though they must pack and leave again tommorow. They come in off a four game road trip, and have lost six straight. While the Knicks have managed just a 1-3 ATS mark at home this year, I look for that to go to 1-4 tonight. Warriors win easily.
5* DENVER -7
Talk about bad. How about the Bulls. The Bulls currently sit at 2-8 ATS overall, and have not even been close in many of their contests. Now they are asked to go to Denver to take on the red-hot Nuggets who are averaging over 115 ppg over their last five. Over the last eight match ups between these two Denver has the ATS advantage 7-1. Expect this trend to continue as the Nuggets blow Chicago out.
Northcoast
Marquee Troy/Mid Tenn St Under
Doc’s Sports
3 Unit Play. #728 Take Virginia -10 over Drexel (8:00 pm CN8) The Cavaliers are for real and are coming off an impressive victory at Arizona over the weekend. Now they take on a mid-major that has made some noise in the NCAA tournament previously, but is not at that level in 2007. The number may
scare some but it should not, as Virginia is averaging over 85 points per game and thus can cover double-digit spreads. They are also strong on the boards, getting 15 more per game and that bode well when facing a mid-major. Virginia gets it done at home.
3 Unit Play. #729 Take Valparaiso +14 over Vanderbilt (8:00 pm) As mid-majors go, Valpo has consistently been on the best and now took a major step up by joining the Horizon League. They are off to a 2-0 start this season including a victory on the road against IPFW. Vanderbilt struggled to put away a Toledo team last week despite having a huge lead early in that affair. This will be a very competitive game that the Crusaders stay involved from start to finish and thus give us a comfortable pointspread victory. Valpo is holding opponents to just 61 point per game and thus Vandy will not be able to cover this double-digit spread.
5 Unit Play. #754 Take UCLA -4 ½ over Michigan State (10:00 pm ESPN) The Spartans were able to dominate Missou on the boards last night and still had trouble putting away Missouri. All the edges favor the Bruins on Tuesday, they played the early game last night giving them three extra hours of rest over Michigan State. The difference in this game will be Kevin Love, as he will exert his will and not allow the Bruins to lose. This will be a low scoring game and the Bruins will pull away late.
Strike Point Sports
2-Unit Play. #718 Take Florida State -20 over Georgia State (7 pm)
The Seminoles had a some major issues this past weekend shooting the ball in tournament play, but look for that to change now back at home, and they'll take some much need frustration out on the Panthers. Florida State has the scorers to make this game one-sided. The four headed monster that is Tony Douglas, Isaiah Swann, Jason Rich and Uche Echefu are quite the bunch, and saying they'll be too much for Georgia State is an understatement. FSU beat UAB this past week, and the Blazers routed the Panthers in their opener. Florida State will be able to do the same. If the Panthers lost to Elon College by 22, then a very athletic and talented Seminoles team will drop the hammer in Tallahassee tonight. They win big and cover in the process.
3-Unit Play. #731 Take Minnesota +1 over Iowa State (8 pm)
With Tubby Smith taking over the reins at Minnesota, things appear on the up and up with the Gophers. Smith has the top three scorers back from last season and eight returnees overall come into '07 after averaging double digit minutes in 2006. The trio of Dan Coleman, Spencer Tollackson and Lawrence McKenzie will be able to take their games to the next level under the guidance of Smith, especially McKenzie running the show at the one. Iowa State lost its top scorer and there is a reason they were picked to finish at or near the bottom of the Big 12. A lot more upside resides with the team from the Big Ten in this match-up, and they will get the better of this meeting. Play Minnesota here.
Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #731 Minnesota (+1) over Iowa State (8 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
This is the first road test for Tubby Smith and his boys but I think they have enough here to get a W. Minnesota can matchup with Iowa State’s only semi-strength, size, but I don’t think the Cyclones can matchup with the experience and skill in the Gophers backcourt.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #768 SE Missouri State (-1) over Evansville (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
There is a solid 79-percent system at work here that suggests a big SEMO victory over a rebuilding Evansville squad. I think the Redhawks’ size and experience underneath, along with the home court edge, will be enough to hold off Evansville.
2-Unit Play. Take #748 Marquette (-2.5) over Oklahoma State (7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
Don’t get sucked into Oklahoma State. This team is still incredibly shaky and proved it by almost blowing a 20-point lead against LSU last night. I don’t think that Marquette will shoot as poorly today and I don’t think that OSU will shoot as well. The Eagles win this one by six or seven and advance to the finals.
2-Unit Play. Take #728 Virginia (-10) over Drexel (8 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
There is the potential for a letdown here for the Cavaliers, but they are so tough at home that I don't see it happening. This is not the same Drexel team of the past two years and this line is short because of their past accomplishments on the road. Virginia has the best player on the floor, and a pair of wings (Joseph, Diane) that Drexel simply can't mathcup with.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #754 UCLA (-4.5) over Michigan State (10 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
Kind of odd that this number is so short. Yes, UCLA doesn’t have two of its top guards. However, they do still have a better interior presence and enough on the outside to get the best of the Spartans. Michigan State has the advantage of the best player on the floor but I think that they are going to find it a lot harder to score against a team that actually plays defense.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #750 Duke (-6.5) over Illinois (9:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
Think of it like this: the ACC always tears up the Big 10 in the ACC-Big 10 challenge, so why wouldn’t the Dukies tear up the Illini here? Illinois looked great last night, but they did it against a completely overwhelmed Arizona State team playing its first game. Something tells me that the Blue Devils won’t be scared of Illinois’ athleticism or their offense.
1-Unit Play. Take #733 Richmond (-1.5) over Rice (8 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 20)
We have to keep fading Rice. They look like one of the worst teams in the country after two games and they don’t even have a true home court advantage because their facilities are being remodeled. Richmond is no prize, but I’ll take their athleticism and that fact that they’ve already played five games against decent competition, over Rice.
Allen Eastman
1-Unit Play Take #728 Virginia Cavaliers -10 over Drexel Dragons. (Tuesday, November 20, 8:00 pm EST).
Virginia comes in to tonight’s game fresh off an upset of then #17 Arizona in Tuscon. ACC player of the week Sean Singletary will try to help the Cavs avoid the upset bug when they Drexel. The 6-0 senior guard from Philadelphia averaged 23.5 points, eight assists and four rebounds a game in Virginia’s two victories last week en route to earning player of the week honors for the fourth time in his career.Through the first three games of the season, Virginia is out rebounding their opponents 121-74 and shooting 51.4 percent. The Cavaliers have never faced Drexel, but has won 17 straight games against teams from the Colonial Athletic Association since a loss in 1993. Both teams are 3-0 on the season and 1-0 ATS. The Cavaliers are ranked No. 23 in this week’s Associated Press Top 25 Poll, and the victory over Arizona marked their fourth consecutive victory over a team ranked in the AP Top 25. There will be no letdown tonight as the Cavs cruise on their home floor to a fourth straight win.
Vegas Informer
4 Unit Play. #749 Take Over 131 Illinois vs. Duke (Tuesday 11/20 9:30 PM ESPN)
4 Unit Play. #754 Take UCLA –4 ½ over Michigan St (Tuesday 11/20 9:20 PM)
3 Unit Play. #770 Take Utah St –2 ½ over Austin Peay (Tuesday 11/20 9:00 PM)
wunderdog nba
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Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on First Half UNDER 108.5 -110
Both of these teams score, which is why we see a sky-high first half total here. It's rare to see a line above 105, nevermind 108.5. It's going to take a ton of scoring, and very little defense, to reach this level. The Lakers actually are a decent defensive team, holding opponents to 42.2% from the field (last five opponents shot only 39.2%). Indiana is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in the first half dating back to last season at home vs. teams that hold opponents to under 43% from the field. The Lakers are 12-3 UNDER in the first half on the road vs. non-conference opponents over that same time span. We'll play the first half to go UNDER this lofty total.
Game: Toronto at Dallas (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 99 -110
Toronto has allowed just 88.7 per game on the road (43.2 in the first half) this season. In the first half of the season, Dallas is 43-27 UNDER this year and the last two. They are also 24-11 UNDER in the first half over that span after allowing 105+ points. If they also scored 105+ in that last game,t hey are 15-4 UNDER the first half the next game. We like this one to stay low in the first half as Dallas refocuses on defense.
Game: Phoenix at Sacramento (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 216 -110
It took awhile, but it was obvious that the Suns would start putting up some big points and getting on a run. They have arrived. After the first five averaging only 103.6 points per game, Phoenix has now caught fire, averaging 110.4 ppg in their last five and allowing 100+ in five of their last six. Sacramento has averaged 110+ over their last three games. So they will thrive on the up-tempo as their offense is clicking right now and they are allowing 104.5-ppg on the season. There will be plenty of opportunities to score points here. This one should go comfortably OVER.
wunderdog nba
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Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on First Half UNDER 108.5 -110
Both of these teams score, which is why we see a sky-high first half total here. It's rare to see a line above 105, nevermind 108.5. It's going to take a ton of scoring, and very little defense, to reach this level. The Lakers actually are a decent defensive team, holding opponents to 42.2% from the field (last five opponents shot only 39.2%). Indiana is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in the first half dating back to last season at home vs. teams that hold opponents to under 43% from the field. The Lakers are 12-3 UNDER in the first half on the road vs. non-conference opponents over that same time span. We'll play the first half to go UNDER this lofty total.
Game: Toronto at Dallas (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 99 -110
Toronto has allowed just 88.7 per game on the road (43.2 in the first half) this season. In the first half of the season, Dallas is 43-27 UNDER this year and the last two. They are also 24-11 UNDER in the first half over that span after allowing 105+ points. If they also scored 105+ in that last game,t hey are 15-4 UNDER the first half the next game. We like this one to stay low in the first half as Dallas refocuses on defense.
Game: Phoenix at Sacramento (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 216 -110
It took awhile, but it was obvious that the Suns would start putting up some big points and getting on a run. They have arrived. After the first five averaging only 103.6 points per game, Phoenix has now caught fire, averaging 110.4 ppg in their last five and allowing 100+ in five of their last six. Sacramento has averaged 110+ over their last three games. So they will thrive on the up-tempo as their offense is clicking right now and they are allowing 104.5-ppg on the season. There will be plenty of opportunities to score points here. This one should go comfortably OVER.