Dave Malinsky
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls
PICK: 4* ATLANTA/CHICAO Under
It should not be a secret as to how the Hawks have jumped out to a 5-0 opening to the season – it has all been about defense. Yet tonight’s line shows that the markets have still not fully grasped that yet.
Atlanta has gone 4-1 to the Under so far, with the only Over that 110-92 blowout of Toronto, when there was naturally a lessening of intensity for both teams on the defensive end in the latter stages of the game. And in a perfect 3-0 run to the Under on the road, the scores have fallen below the expectations by a collective 57 points, or 19.0 per game. The Hawks are 2nd to only the Lakers in points allowed per game and FG percentage allowed, and check in at #3 on our best set of defensive ratings. When we combine that level of defense with their methodical game flows (#22 in pace), it means that an opponent is going to have to execute quite well to score, and the Bulls are not in a position to do that tonight. And if anything the absence of Josh Smith, which leaves Joe Johnson as the only real go-to offensive threat for Atlanta in half-court sets, slows the pace even more.
The Chicago problem tonight is one that Vinny Del Negro certainly did not count on – instead of worrying about how to find minutes for all of the guards on his roster, the absence of Kirk Hinrich and Larry Hughes instead leaves them short-handed. Derrick Rose had to play 44 minutes in Saturday’s loss to Cleveland, much more than they would like for a rookie still trying to learn the NBA ways, but there is no way around that for now. And it is not helping matters that Thabo Sefolosha’s offense remains MIA, managing just 3.1 points per game on 34.8 percent shooting, despite having started five of seven games. But Sefolosha is an ideal defensive matchup vs. Johnson because of his size, which keeps him on the floor for long minutes tonight. As a team the Bulls are only shooting 42 percent, and they rate 23rd on our offensive efficiency charts, and that does not get better sans Hinrich, and against this caliber of defense.
This one will not be pretty to watch, with a lot of ugly stretches in which neither side finds an offensive rhythm. But that suits our purposes just fine.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Duke -23.5
Now that Duke got its first one out of the way, I expect the Blue Devils to really look sharp tonight against a terrible overmatched opponent. The Devils went just 3-for-11 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers and you can bet that both of those stats will improve tonight. The Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Southern Conference and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Coach K clearly wasn't satisfied with his team's offensive effort last night even though they scored 80 points. I expect them to really run up the score in this one after hearing about it from their coach. Lay the number,
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at New York Islanders
Pick: Philadelphia -148
The Islanders have been living in a nightmare, as they have just two wins to show for their last nine efforts on the ice. On average the Isles' have been getting out-scored by a goal a game - one of the losses came during this stretch at Philly in OT. The Flyers have already seen five of their 13 games end in either OT, or a shootout, but in their last seven they have been the opposite of the Rangers where they have out-scored their opponents by a goal a game. There is a big gap between these teams right now, and I'm going with the Flyers on the road here.
LT Profits
New York Knicks +3.5
The once proud San Antonio Spurs have been beset by injuries and are off to a 1-4 start, while the upstart New York Knicks have actually played decent basketball while going 4-2.
Furthermore, the lone Spurs victory was a non-covering win vs. the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves, and they are 0-5 against the spread. As if that is not bad enough, while already without Manu Ginobili, the Spurs also lost Tony Parker to an ankle injury in their home loss to the Miami Heat on Friday.
We felt before this season started that San Antonio was a team in decline, as they got old in a hurry and have practically nothing on the bench. Now they have been reduced to poor Tim Duncan, who we have loads of respect for, and a cast of role players. As hard as he will try, Duncan cannot win games by himself, and the Spurs will continue to struggle until they start getting some players back.
The Knicks have won three straight games, and this streak includes a nice road win vs. the Washington Wizards. They have also cracked the 100-point mark on four of their six games while averaging 102.5 point per game, so they should be able to take full advantage at what has become a bad San Antonio defense.
It has been sad to watch a Spurs team that prides itself on defense surrender 105.0 points per game, and we look for the improved Knicks to pull the upset on the road here.
Pick: Knicks +3.5
Drew Gordon
Atlanta +3' at CHICAGO
Solid underdog play here on the undefeated Hawks, as Vegas still refuses to give them any credit, and they'll pay for it tonight. Yes, I know Josh Smith is out, but that's only part of the picture, let's dig a little deeper...
First, while Josh Smith is out, the loss of Hinrich and most likely Drew Gooden (ankle-questionable) is a huge blow to this Bulls squad. Although its still not clear if Gooden is going to play, backup center Aaron Gray is a major down-grade at the position, and eliminates one of the few edges the Bulls have in this game (with the Hawks weak at center).
Second, while Vegas and the public alike seem reticent to back this Atlanta team, I'm an early believer. I'm not saying they're an elite team, but they're sure as hell good enough to give a short-handed Bulls team a run for their money. Note, it usually takes a team a couple games to get used to playing without a star (like Smith), and that was clear in their failure to cover at the Thunder in their last one. Look for a more focused effort tonight, as Williams, Horford, and Murray pick up the slack.
Finally, while Rose is a star in the making, he's still a rookie, and no surprise leads the Bulls in turnovers. This Bulls team is going to experience plenty of growing pains with their rookie floor general at the helm. Considering the way the Hawks are playing on defense of late, allowing 85 ppg on 40% shooting this season, I say the Bulls and Rose are in for a tough game tonight.
Small play on Atlanta plus the points over Chicago in this NBA match up.
1♦ ATLANTA
Karl Garrett
Denver -3' at CHARLOTTE
Tonight in the association, I will lay the small number with the visiting Nuggets as they take on the Bobcats.
Plenty of North Carolina ties here, as George Karl and Larry Brown go way back, but the difference tonight is going to be the play of newly aquired guard Chauncey Billups, as I like this trade an awful lot for Denver.
The Nuggets seem to like it as well, as Denver has won and covered its last pair of games, and also won the last meeting with Charlotte last February.
The Bobcats are off a home loss to Toronto by double-digits, as Charlotte has now dropped 3 of its last 4.
Coach Brown has publically acknowledged that his team is a work in progress, and quite frankly, the Nuggets are the better team, and will get the result they are looking for in this road game.
Take Denver minus the points.
2♦ DENVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Utah at PHILADELPHIA -5
We are going to lay the home wood with the 76ers tonight, as they take on a banged-up Utah Jazz team.
The Jazz are still without guard Deron Williams, and now both Okur, and Harpering are injured. Not surprisingly, the Jazz dropped their first game of the season on Sunday at the New York Knicks.
We expect the combination of the road, and the injuries to catch up to Utah once again tonight. Philadelphia comes back home off a pair of losses at Miami, and Orlando, but the 76ers do own a two game home winning streak. Both Sixers wins have come by double digits, as Philly has been able to crush both New York, and Sacramento over their last two home games.
Utah did sweep last year's season series, but we don't see them being able to come up with the win tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.
Play on Phladelphia minus the points to hand the banged up Jazz another loss both straight up, and against the spread.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +7.5
Since starting 0-4 with their first four games on the road, the Kings have been cleaning up with a 3-0 mark in its last 3 games. The Pistons are still trying to build chemistry with Allen Iverson and they will likely struggle for a bit until they are able to do so. The Kings are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season and 2-0 SU and ATS in its last 2 home games with Detroit . In fact, Sac has won 10 of its last 11 home games against the Pistons. Take the points tonight.
Mr A
Ball State at Miami (Ohio)
The unbeaten Ball State Cardinals will easily outscore the struggling Miami-Ohio Redhawks. The Cardinals' offense is averaging 38.3 points per game and 458.4 yards. Junior quarterback Nate Davis and squad will have a field day against the Redhawks' defense.
Ball State Cardinals -19½
NBA
Utah Jazz +5
Atlanta Hawks +3½
Johnny Guild
Ball State Cardinals at Miami-Ohio Redhawks
Ball State Cardinals have conquered their first nine challengers by an average of 24 points per game. Expect the Cardinals’ offense and their sharp quarterback Nate Davis to traumatize the Redhawks’ defense. The plummeting RedHawks have not beaten a Top 25 team since 2003. To boot, the road team in this series has covered the spread in the last five clashes, 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Ball State Cardinals -19.5
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
Los Angeles Lakers have won the last three meetings and 16 of their last 25 at Dallas. Look for the surging Lakers to take their sixth straight win tonight when they square off with the struggling Mavericks at American Airlines Center. Dallas has lost its last two games and games and three of their last four.
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5
Stephen Nover
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota coach Randy Wittman is shaking his club up starting Sebastian Telfair at point guard and benching Randy Foye.
Maybe that will jump start the Wolves. I'm not a big fan of Telfair, but look at who has become Golden State's main ball handler - Stephen Jackson. Now Jackson is a proficient scorer, but you know things aren't going well for your team when he's your de facto point guard and being counted on for team leadership.
The Warriors are the youngest team in the NBA. They are searching for an identity and go-to guys with Baron Davis gone to the Clippers and Monta Ellils injured.
Making matters worse for Golden State is constant front-office distractions and trade rumors swirling around forward Al Harrington, who remains out for this game.
Golden State probably gets back swingman Corey Maggette. But his minutes will be reduced since he's off a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the past two games.
The Warriors are 9-24 against the number in their last 33 games versus Western Conference clubs. They have a poor history, too, getting up for weaker teams covering just eight of their past 28 home games versus teams with a losing road mark.
Do I like the Timberwolves? No. But I like the Warriors far less in this chalk role. A one-unit play on Minnesota.
Doc's Sports
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have won three of the last five meetings straight up and they have covered in all five of those contests (one of the SU losses was in OT). So we have a history in the series where the dog plays real tough against this team. Milwaukee comes into this game at 3-4 but they have been very competitive and all their games and their biggest loss was in Boston by 12 points. The Cavs have been playing pretty well but even their last two wins were close. We don’t think this is a live dog that can win straight up but when you are getting this many points a blowout is the only way you can lose and the Bucks have shown the ability to hang around in games all season and we think they will keep this one within double digits.
GREG SHAKER
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
Play: Knicks +4
A combination of Age, and not having the services of Parker and Ginobili until early December has the Spurs reeling here in the early going. They do not have the scoring punch, the ball handling ability, nor the D to compete well right now. The fact is, San Antonio has always been known for their great defensive skills, but find themselves right now way toward the worst end of the league This line is based on reputation only and NBA Teams are having fun beating a team that has made their life miserable for a very long time. New York has dropped 6 straight and 12 of 13 verses San Antonio but this team is playing very well right now and the guard matchups tonight are highly in their favor. They are playing with a lot of confidence and they should be able to score points in this one. The Total line of 195 is indicative of just how poorly SA is playing right now. That is an uncommon number for this team here at home. I am going to grab these points tonight.
Ben Burns
Game: Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Under
The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 the last four times that the Hawks traveled to Chicago. Those games had scores of 94-86, 106-81, 90-78 and 103-94. That's an average combined score of 183. The 'under' is 4-1 in Atlanta's five games this season, including 3-0 on the road. Those three games had an average score of only 174.7. Consider the UNDER
Michael Cannon
LA Lakers -6 at DALLAS
Take the Lakers tonight on the road over the Mavericks.
Dallas is a shell of its former self, and Dirk and company don’t have what it takes anymore to compete with the Lakers frontcourt of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom.
If that wasn’t bad enough for Dallas, they have to deal with Kobe and a Lakers team that is off to a 5-0 start, with four of those wins coming by double digits.
The Lakers have scored at least 104 points in four straight and is winning by an average margin of 23 points per game.
Dallas is off to a 2-4 start and has dropped its first two home games by double digits. This is an aging team that has not made any significant additions to its lineup, other than making it older with the acquisition of Jason Kidd last year.
Take the Lakers as they get it done in Big D.
3♦ LA LAKERS