Larry Ness
SAN -4.5 vs NYK
San Antonio entered the season knowing Manu Ginobili (last year's leading scorer) would miss the first month or so following off-season ankle surgery. The Spurs lost their first three games of the new season but then rode Tony Parker's 55 points to a 129-125 double-OT win at Minnesota. However, Parker went down with a severe ankle sprain last Friday, as the Spurs fell to 1-4 (0-5 ATS) with a 99-83 home loss to the Heat. Parker will be out for at least a month, leaving only Time Duncan from the trio which led San Antonio to three titles in six years. The Knicks have been in a "deep funk" these last few seasons and bravely, Mike D'Antoni decided to accept the challenge after being forced out at Phoenix. One must applaud the job he's done so far, as the Knicks enter this game 4-2 after Sunday's impressive 107-99 win Sunday at MSG over the Jazz (Utah entered 5-0). Randolph (19.8-11.5) and Crawford (19.2) lead six players scoring in double figures and while PG Chris Duhon (8.2-6.7 APG) is not one of that group, the former Bull has fit in nicely. Marbury's been inactive and Curry has yet to play (is he really hurt?), as the new-look Knicks are off to a surprising start. Now I realize this isn't the "Spurs of old," but the Knicks (while greatly improved), are still a "work in progress." I'll remind everyone that the Knicks have lost six straight to the Spurs (have not scored more than 96 points in any loss) and nine of 10 to them since last winning game in San Antnoio (March 18, 2003). The Spurs were 12 1/2-point favorites here in San Antonio last year when hosting the Knicks and I'll lay the relatively 'cheap' number tonight. Take the Spurs.
VictoriousPlay
New York @ San Antonio
Curious game today with a New York team coming of a three straight winning streak while San Antonio, without Ginobili and now Tony Parker, has a record of 1-4 since the season started. We all know that New York is an offensive team that can score around 100 points in every game but will San Antonio be able to outscore them without both Parker and Ginobili? We believe they can. In today’s game we expect to see a close but fast game, with both teams reaching 100 points. Due to this factor we believe the best play is definitely the Over.
Recommendation: 1* Over 196
Andre Gomes
SAN -4 vs NYK
First of all, no matter what the result ends up being, I won't regret in making this play, even if the Spurs get blown out today. Every factor points to a big edge of the Spurs tonight and I'm not buying the hysteric wave of fading the Spurs no matter what.
My analysis are based especially in three factors: spots, matchup analysis and emotional factors and I see an edge for the Spurs in all these three factors. The Spurs lost Tony Parker and the game against Miami by 83-99 and they will now host the red hot Knicks and typically on sports, the spot of a team playing an home game after having lost an game as a home favorite is always powerful. That's the case of the Spurs today and a good example of how powerful can this spot be involves the... Knicks! The Sixers lost at home against Toronto as an home favorite and then they hosted the Knicks and slaughtered them by 116-87!
The Spurs weren't able to adjust themselves after losing Parker during the game against Miami, which was extremely hard to be done, but the team had exactly what they needed for this game: they haven't played since last Friday and Popovich obviously took advantage of these days to adjust the team to this new situation. On the other side, the Knicks are coming to this game in a classic spot of a letdown. They have won their last 3 games, including an upset win at home against Utah on their last game. They will now play on the West and the risk of a collapse is huge.
Also for this game, the Spurs will be benefited for the wild style of the Knicks, as we all know the Spurs are very strong against run and gun teams and the fact that they won't need to play with an organized offense will help them. Basically they will just need to take advantage of the turnovers of the Knicks and play good defense. And defense has been the most used word by Pop in the last few days:
"If we don't play good defense, it doesn't matter if we score or not," said Popovich, whose team is 1-4 for the first time in his 11-plus seasons. "We're not going to score 110 points a game, so we have to keep people in the 80s or low 90s for wins. That's how we've done it every year."
Even Duncan has referred that:
"Even if Manu and Tony were healthy, we can't continue to play the defense we have been," Tim Duncan said. "We're going to try to get back to the old Spurs ways, where we keep the games in the 80s."
And that's a key factor for this game. Why? Well, the Knicks are 4-0 this season when they score 100 points or more, but 0-2 when they score less than 100 points. As any run and gun team, the Knicks depend from their shooting percentages and today I expect the Spurs to be extremely focused on defense. For San Antonio, it won't be hard for them to score against the Knicks, it seems almost ridiculous but the Knicks during this 3 game winning streak has allowed their opponents to shoot an average of 50.6% FG!!! Now I ask: if the Knicks aren't efficient on the offense, can they still be competitive even when they can't defend? I don't think so.
At last, we have a psychological factor: Popovich owns D'Antoni and his teams and even a run and gun top team like the Suns never had success against the Spurs. Come to this, I think the Spurs are being underrated today and so I'll take them in here. Take San Antonio.
Rocketman
IUPUI vs Northeastern
Play:1* Northeastern -6 1/2
Jaguars are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Northeastern is 22-12 ATS last 34 games as a favorite. IUPUI is 0-3 ATS last 3 after an away game. My power ratings has Northeastern to win this game by 10.27 points. We'll recommend a small play on Northeastern today!
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Pittsburgh Penguins +165
3 Units - Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
Matt Foust
Ball St. -18.5
Tonight ESPN2 gives us anther MAC match-up, this time between Ball State and the Miami, OH Red Hawks. The Cardinals are favored on the road anywhere from -18.5 to -20.5, and for good reason. We are taking Ball State -18.5 in tonight’s stand alone game.
Ball State, sitting at 9-0, has dominated the MAC this year. The Cardinals are known for their offense prowess, averaging 38.3 points per game on the season, but it is their defense that really makes them superior. Ball State has held their opposition to an average of 15.3 points per game and they shut down a quality Northern Illinois unit last week, limiting them to just 14 points. They will do the same this evening against the Red Hawks who have struggled to score points all year.
The Red Hawks are 2-7 on the season and just 1-3 at home (their lone win coming against FCS school Charleston Southern). Their three losses came against Vanderbilt and conference foes Temple and Kent State. The average margin of loss for the Red Hawks at Fred C. Yager Stadium this season is 24 points.
Ball State can hurt opponents in many ways, but their ground game sets things up well for quarterback Nate Davis (19 TD’s, 5 INT). The Cardinals average 194.1 yards per game on the ground and Miami, OH yields 178 per to opposing rushing attacks. MiQuale Lewis (5.8 ypc on the year) will have a field day against the Red Hawk front and Davis will take care of the rest. Additionally, Ball State’s rushing ability often puts them in third and short situations and they excel at converting (51%) while the Red Hawks defense has difficulty getting offenses off the field (45% third downs conversions allowed).
This game is a mismatch in almost everyway, right down to the turnovers. Ball State is +6 in turnovers on the road and Miami, OH is -10 at home. This thing has route written all over it.
Things to consider: Ball State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite. Miami (OH) is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Ball State is 3-0 ATS the last four years when coming off a two game home stand.
Take Ball State -18.5
Ted Sevransky
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls
PICK: Atlanta Hawks
Two weeks into the young season, there’s a lot to be said for the concept of strength of schedule. With most teams in the NBA having played five or six games, a quick look at the standings won’t tell us much. Atlanta is 5-0; Chicago is 3-4; no big deal, necessarily – until we start to look at the teams that Chicago has been losing to, and the teams that the Hawks have been beating.
The Bulls have three wins. They beat a last-place-contending Bucks squad; a worst-team-in-the-NBA contending Memphis Grizzlies and a Phoenix Suns team playing their third game in four nights on the road without Shaq. The Bulls have lost all four games that they’ve played against opposing teams with a winning record, including a home loss to the Cavs in their last outing.
Atlanta is perfect on the road, and they’ve been beating quality squads, including impressive upset wins at New Orleans and at Orlando. Even without defensive stopper Josh Smith in the lineup on Saturday, the Hawks came through with a brilliant defensive game, winning despite shooting only 37% from the floor. Head coach Mike Woodson: “These guys tasted a little success last season when we got in the playoffs against the Celtics, and they know what that feeling is like. And they want to get back.” Expect them to continue their winning ways at the United Center this evening. Take Atlanta.
Scott Rickenbach
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Calgary Flames
The Flames are a pricier favorite than what I prefer to use as a “pay play” but there is still value with Calgary in this spot and, at what is truly a fair price that’s why you’re reading about them here! Calgary is catching a Maple Leafs club off of a huge win as Toronto beat Montreal 6 to 3 on Saturday. That will leave the Leafs a little flat here and note that they had lost three straight games prior to that win. They’re facing a Flames team that is very fired up and very hungry for this game. Calgary is coming off of a disappointing two game road trip where they lost the two games by a combined score of 9 to 2. Calgary was in a very tough spot there though as the two road games were back to back and they were part of a stretch where it was three games in four nights for the Flames. Now Calgary has the benefit of having had a day off yesterday and they will also enjoy being back on home ice where they scored 7 goals and won their most recent game in a wild one. Look for a focused effort from the Flames to cut down on the shaky defense and goaltending that has hampered them recently. They’re catching the Leafs at a good time as Toronto will take awhile to come down off the high of beating Montreal and, as a result, the Maple Leafs will struggle to focus on the task at hand tonight. This is why the Flames, in a very fair price range tonight, are at least “worth a look” as a small play on Tuesday. This one is all about the scheduling advantages as well as the fact that, with the Flames off a loss and the Rangers off a win, the hungrier team is definitely the home team in this one!
Jay Todd
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -5½
Minnesota enters this game on a five game losing streak. Do not expect things to get any better as they take on the high scoring Warriors. Minnesota is allowing 115.7 points per game over their last three. This is great news for Golden State, who averages 101 points per game on the season.
Golden state has five players scoring in double figures, three of which average over 17 a game. The Timberwolves will have trouble defending all of the Warriors’ weapons. We all know about Stephen Jackson, who is averaging 22 points per game, but the real surprise for Golden State has been the play of Andris Biedrins. Biedrins will be the key factor in this game. He is averaging 17 points and 14 rebounds. Biedrins can play inside and out and Minnesota will have no one that can match up with him.
Golden State has struggled on defense so far this season, but that is going to change in this game. Minnesota has only score over 100 twice this season, one of which came in overtime. The Warriors will be able to do enough defensively to help them cover this spread.
Golden State will get back to their winning ways on their home court, where they have been outstanding over the past couple of years. Play Golden State -5.5 over Minnesota.
Mr. East
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Under 206
I'm a firm believer, that most of the time, the home team dictates tempo in the NBA, and one of the most blatant examples to verify that is the Golden St. warriors. Coach nelson has one agenda, and that is to run, and then run some more. So how has that translated at home to the premise that began this write-up? the last 33 games Golden St. has taken the floor at home, the total points scored has average 223 a game. Those 33 games have seen the total finish under tonight's number, just 1 time! That is good for 97% against this number. that has been against slowdown half-court teams, run and gun teams, or teams that don't play either, but try to slow them down, but not one has succeeded. The only one that came in below tonight's total was 204, just a couple points shy. Only one way to go here, and that's under
Info Plays
3* on New York Knicks +4.5
Reasons why the Knicks cover the spread Tuesday:
1.) The Spurs are now without Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker. Although Tim Duncan is still a solid big man, the Spurs cannot win without Ginobli and Parker on the floor. The Knicks should be the favorite tonight against a Spurs’ team that just 1-4 on the season.
2.) The Knicks are finally playing solid basketball this season under new head coach Mike D’Antoni. New York is off to a 4-2 start after handing the Utah Jazz their first loss of the season in a 107-99 victory on Sunday. The Knicks are actually having fun again with the up-tempo style D’Antoni has brought to the table. This is the kind of style that the Spurs don’t have an answer for. Ginobli and Parker could run the floor for easy baskets, and they could also defend in transition. The Knicks will be able to exploit this weakness and get up and down the floor for easy baskets all game long.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts, in non-conference games. This is a 47-21 ATS System hitting 69.1% over the last 5 seasons. San Antonio is 0-3 at home this season, scoring just 87.3 PPG and shooting only 43% from the field. Don’t expect the Spurs to shoot any better from the field tonight as this team is clearly lost out on the court without their floor general in Tony Parker running the offense. He could create easy shots for teammates, but don’t expect anything to come easy for the Spurs tonight. Bet the Knicks on the road.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -3½
One of the reasons the line is so low on this game is Atlanta's 5-0 SU mark overall and their 3-0 record on the road, but don't forget the Bulls are 3-1 SU and ATS on their home floor. Atlanta is plying tough defense in allowing opponents to score just 85.8 ppg on the year, but the Bulls have averaged 100.2 ppg at home this season. Atlanta is just 1-11 ATS on the road where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points the last two seasons and 14-26 ATS as a road underdog the last two years. Chicago is 53-33 ATS the last ten years against the Southeast division. Injuries are playing a big role in this game and that's one of the reasons this is a free pick and not one of our more confident premium picks on the night. Drew Gooden is questionable and Kirk Heinrich is out for the Bulls, while Josh Smith will miss the next few weeks for Atlanta with a left ankle sprain. Atlanta has lost seven straight in Chicago and we see that going to eight tonight.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Jazz/76ers Under 190
This is a showdown between two teams that do not run the floor, yet rely on solid half court offense/defense to win games. The Jazz lost their ability to push the ball up the court when Deron Williams went down with an ankle injury before the season. He is still out for tonight’s game and will not return for about a week. The 76ers brought in Elton Brand to improve their post offense and defense. Both teams have been solid defensively this season, with the giving up 91.0 points per game on the season and 90.0 point per game on the road, while the 76ers are yielding just 95.3 points per game on the season and 91.0 points per game at home. The UNDER is 5-1 in the 76ers’ six games this season, and the UNDER is 4-2 in the Jazz’ six contests as well. Philly is 17-7 UNDER (+9.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 25-13 UNDER (+10.7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 24-13 UNDER (+9.7 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Defense prevails tonight with neither team scoring more than 95 points in this one. Take the UNDER 190 points
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on L.A. Lakers -5.5
The L.A. Lakers are 5-0 this season, winning their games by an average of 22.4 points/game. The Lakers are the real deal this season, and there have been talks in the clubhouse about setting the NBA record for most wins in the season. If there was one team that could accomplish this feat, it would be the 2008-09 L.A. Lakers. This team is stacked from top to bottom, playing a 10-deep roster. What’s sick is that Lamar Odom is now coming off the bench, and their second unit isn’t giving in one bit. A key in this game will be that F Josh Howard is Doubtful to play tonight for the Mavericks with a wrist injury he suffered in a 105-108 loss to Denver. He didn’t play in the team’s following game, a 103-92 loss to the L.A. Clippers as the Mavericks handed the Clipps their first win of the season. Dallas has looked terrible at home this season, losing to Cleveland 100-81 and to Houston 112-102. This was the same Rockets’ team that the Lakers beat 111-82 just two days ago on Sunday, for a 29-point beat down. The Mavericks are overmatched in every phase of this game. Even is Dallas gets 30 points out of Dirk, I still see the Mavericks losing by double-digits. The Lakers are 22-5 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 24-9 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers have been able to do whatever they want offensively, and the Mavericks won’t be able to stop the combo of Bynum and Gasol inside. Then there’s Kobe Bryant, who has recently posted 52 and 62-point efforts against the Mavericks. Dallas might not even make the playoffs this season, and with 10-point and 19-point home losses already by the Mavs to start he season, nothing leads me to believe they can even keep this game close. Cash in with the Lakers as the favorite.