Ben Burns
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
The number has come way down due to Garnett being out. While "The Big Ticket" is obviously a huge part of the Boston team, the defending champs are more than capable of beating up the Knicks without him in the lineup. The Celts ar 6-1-1 ATS their last eight games with the Knicks and 22-10-1 ATS their last 33 divisional games overall. Consider laying the points.
GREG SHAKER
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Play: Over 202.5
Totals being set forth by Oddsmakers for home Warrior games continue to be lower than expected. In part, it is because all NBA Totals have been lower this year because of the big Under Bonanza that we saw earlier in the season. That percentage has been compensated for and now stands at 77-71 in favor of Unders. That is pretty much squared up now but we continue to see good opps on OVER plays recently. This total is also due in part to the play of the Blazers which has been spotty over the last couple of games. They have managed just 88 and 82 points in those games and actually won one of those. In those contests, they were not forced into heavy action on the court. They will be tonight. The Warrior pace has been furious and that is especially true in the Golden State. Shooting percentages are just average for this team but shooting numbers have been very large. The last 7 times on the court they have been involved in games that have produced 180 and even 190 attempts at the bucket. That has come against some squads that do not like to push the ball. They had too. They were playing the Warriors. Here at home, games are averaging 214 points and we have yet to see a game with less than 209. We can date this back to last year to find that OVER is 21-8 the last 29 here at this arena and in most cases the betting line was very much higher than what we have for tonight's contest. What am I missing? Nothing. I am just going to have to play this OVER again as I have already done 3 previous times this year. This is a Bargain Basement Sale going on and it will be Cash and Carry. You can play up to 205 but the line is going downward from an open of 203.5.
Andre Gomes
ORLANDO VS TORONTO
The injury of Calderon prevents me from making a top play on this game, as the spot of the Raptors today and with the number of points the Magic are favored today would make Toronto a top play tonight. You should remember that the Magic eliminated the Raptors in the playoffs last season by 4-1, with Dwight Howard having monster games against the weak frontcourt of the Raptors. This evidence was so strong that it made the Raptors look for solutions for the frontcourt during this offseason, with Jermaine O'Neal joining the team and today it will be the first time that these two teams will face each other after last season's playoff series. Naturally, this game will be somekind of a revenge game for the Raptors and I've read comments about this today.
Orlando is coming from three wins in a row on the road, with the last win being a sloppy one. Howard played just 8 minutes in the whole second half and they still outscored the awful team of the Bobcats by 52-42, in order to win to game. The Raptors defeated Miami last Sunday even without Calderon, while using a taller lineup with O'Neal, Bosh and Bargnani at the same time and the reflect of that was immediate: they outrebounded Miami by 52-35. Today Howard will bounce back from his terrible game at Orlando, but his edge over the frontcourt of the Raptors won't be the same it was last season.
Toronto has been extremely competitive on the road. They won at Philadelphia, defeated the Bucks and were involved in a game at Boston against the Celtics. I believe the Raptors will be competitive today and they may even won this game outright, but the fact they have 6.5 points on this game make them be a valuable bet.
Note: Calderon is questionable for this game, but even if he doesn't play, this pick is still valid.
Regular Play on Toronto Raptors +6.5
Jack Jones
1* on Indiana -2
The Hawks got off to the best start in the East but have since fell on hard times in losing three straight games. One of the reasons for this skid has been Josh Smith's absence as he has missed the last five games with an ankle sprain. Teams have scored more than 100 in four straight, and that should continue tonight with the balanced offensive attack the Pacers have. Atlanta historically doesn't really travel well, going 14-32 ATS on the road off a home loss by double digits since 1996 and 7-19 ATS on the road after any kind of loss the last two seasons. I'll take Indiana tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cleveland Cavs -5.5
We’ll play on this steady system tonight: plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 52-21 ATS the last 5 seasons. New Jersey is 6-16 ATS in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cavs are rolling, having won 7 in a row, and I like them to keep right on rolling tonight. Lay the number.
Info Plays
3* on L.A. Lakers -13
Reasons why the Lakers cover the spread Tuesday:
1.) The Bulls have no post presence to contain Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Chicago has Joakim Noah, Drew Gooden and Ty Thomas inside. This trio is no match for what the Lakers put on the floor. The Bulls are a guard-based team that relies on the jumper to beat teams. They will not be able to get anything inside tonight, thus the Lakers win in a blowout.
2.) Lakers are coming off a loss with 3 days of rest in between games. The Lakers have been just waiting to get back on the floor and make up for their first loss of the season to the Detroit Pistons last Friday. This rest has given the Lakers some time to work in practice and be more prepared for the Bulls tonight.
3.) The Bulls are 0-3 on the road this season, losing by an average of 11.0 PPG. Chicago won’t be able to get their road problems turned around, especially not against this hungry Lakers’ team. The Lakers are winning their games by an average of 14.4 PPG this season. A 20-point blowout is inevitable tonight.
4.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - off a home win against a division rival, playing with 2 days rest. This is a 31-9 ATS System hitting 77.5% over the last 5 seasons. The Bulls have had 2 days of rest as well. The worst thing for a team that is playing well is rest. The Bulls have played well at home recently, but they are winless on the road this season and they won’t sniff a victory Tuesday against a much superior L.A. Lakers team. Bet the Lakers at home.
John Martin
1 Unit on N. Colorado +7
Northern Colorado is a sexy free pick tonight against in-state rival Colorado State. N. Colorado fought hard in a 64-66 setback at Oregon to get their season under way. They were a 17.5-point dog in that match-up, and nearly pulled off the upset against a Pac-10 foe. Northern Colorado beat Colorado State last season 72-59 despite being an underdog. Head coach Tad Boyle has welcomed back 4 starters this season from a team that went 13-16 last season, but 16-10 ATS. After losing to Oregon by just 2 points on the road, this team has shown they are capable of finishing better than .500 this season in Boyle’s third year at the helm of the program. Colorado State was terrible last season, going 7-25 on the year. This is Tim Miles’ second year at the helm, but this is also still a rebuilding year for the Rams. Northern Colorado is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Northern Colorado is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Northern Colorado as the underdog.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Sacramento State +8.5
Sacramento State is catching too many points to pass up tonight. They face UC-Riverside, who went 9-21 on the season last year and they don’t appear to have improved much at all this season. That showed when they lost by 27 points to New Mexico State in their season opener. Sacramento State played tough in their opener, a 12-point road loss against Fresno State. They forced the Bulldogs into 18 turnovers. These are two sub-par teams squaring off, and we’ll take the points every time in this situation, especially after UC-Riverside got manhandled by New Mexico State. Riverside is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home games off a road loss since 1997. Riverside is also 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in home games after playing a road game since 1997. Take Sacramento State and the points.
Marc Lawrence
Arizona State @ San Diego State
PICK: San Diego State
The Aztecs host Arizona State on the college hardwood this evening knowing they are 3-0 ATS in this series the last three meetings. With SDSU returning all five starters from last year's 20-win squad, we'll grab the points with this love home dog tonight.We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego State.
MTi Sports
Game: Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are 12-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since March 15, 1999 as a home favorite after a game in which they shot less than 35% from the field.The Bucks are 0-9 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since January 23, 2007 on the road after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Take DENVER
Scott Rickenbach
Edmonton Oilers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Over 5.5 5
This play did not make my “pay play” list but there is still value with the OVER in this spot! Plus, at what is truly a nice price to play the over at a 5.5, this is offering great line value and we’ll take it! The Blue Jackets goaltending situation has been muddled because of injuries and this has now resulted in Columbus carrying three goaltenders on their roster. They’ve allowed three goals or more in 13 of their 18 games this season! As for the Oilers, they’ve allowed three goals or more in 10 of their last 14 games. They also have had goaltending issues with too many netminders and not enough playing time. The significance in the numbers above is that the odds are in our favor that each side allows at least three goals in this match-up and, of course, with a total of just 5.5 on this game, that means we’ve got a great shot at cashing this ticket. With Edmonton coming off of a shutout loss at Detroit and the Blue Jackets having scored just two goals in two of their last three games, you can also expect the offenses to be a little extra aggressive tonight. That adds even more value to the over here and we’re all “over” this one! Play OVER the total of 5.5 goals in Columbus on Tuesday night.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Pittsburgh Penguins -140
3 Units - Toronto Raptors +6
3 Units - Tulane +21.5