The Booooj
5-0 in Bowl games so far
10 units on TCU (-3) over Boise St.
In what is one of the most anticipated matchups of the Bowl season two of this year’s most fascinating teams face off in San Diego. Boise St. comes in looking to prove that they deserved a BCS bid, while TCU is looking for redemption from a late season loss to Utah, which sent the Utes to the BCS rather than TCU. All the talk coming into this game is surrounding the matchup of Boise St’s high flying offense vs. TCU’s dominating defense, however the Bronco’s defense should not be overlooked. They should be able to cause some problems for Andy Dalton and the Frogs offense. Aaron Brown will be critical to the TCU offenses success in this one. If he can make plays in the running game and get the tough yards to stay ahead of the chains, TCU should be able to keep its offense on the field. Boise St. will look to Redshirt Freshman QB Kellen Moore throw the ball to relax TCU’s ferocious run defense, but All-American defensive end Jerry Hughes will make sure Moore doesn’t get comfortable in the pocket. Hughes leads the nation with 14 sacks, and will look to add a couple more tonight on the big stage. If TCU can prevent the Bronco’s from any big trick plays, they should be able to slow down the Boise offense. One X-factor in tonight’s game could be the field goal kickers, both teams have struggled in this area, and with points at a premium, it could come down to which team’s kicker doesn’t leave any points on the field. In the end TCU’s defense will prove too much for the Boise offense to handle and their offense should be able to put up enough points to get the win. TCU by 6-10.
DUNKEL
Philadelphia at Boston
The Celtics are coming off a 124-105 win over the Knicks and look to run their record to 7-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in the previous game. Boston is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-13).
Game 501-502: Oklahoma City at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 108.453; Atlanta 125.478
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 17; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 12; 194
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-12); Under
Game 503-504: New Jersey at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 115.013; Indiana 118.797
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 219
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 505-506: Houston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.118; Cleveland 131.885
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 184 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 188
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-7);Under
Game 507-508: Washington at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 109.768; Charlotte 118.195
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 8 1/2; 186 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 6 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-6 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Philadelphia at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 117.153; Boston 134.021
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 17; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 13; 193
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-13); Over
Game 511-512: Golden State at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 111.231; Miami 116.168
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5; 185
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 513-514: LA Lakers at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 121.560; New Orleans 126.290
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2); Under
Game 515-516: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.053; Detroit 119.477
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 4 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2); Over
Game 517-518: Utah at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.179; Milwaukee 116.296
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 3; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 1; 197
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-1); Under
Game 519-520: Memphis at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 113.941; Dallas 122.609
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8 1/2; 202 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 12; 197
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+12); Over
Game 521-522: Minnesota at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.766; San Antonio 125.186
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 17 1/2; 196 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 12 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-12 1/2); Over
Game 523-524: Denver at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.078; Portland 125.186
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6; 200 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 8 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+8 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Butler at Xavier
The Musketeers try to bounce back from their lopsided loss against Duke (82-64), but run into a Butler team that is 11-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons, including 3-0 this season. The Bulldogs are the underdog pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has Xavier favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Butler (+8).
Game 525-526: Illinois-Chicago at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 60.463; Toledo 55.951
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+7 1/2)
Game 527-528: Kent State at Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 57.634; Cleveland State 68.066
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-7)
Game 529-530: Butler at Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 67.463; Xavier 71.486
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 4
Vegas Line: Xavier by 8
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+8)
Game 531-532: Detroit at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 46.328; Central Michigan 53.344
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 7
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-4 1/2)
Game 533-534: Florida International at Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 45.855; Georgetown 79.526
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 34
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 29 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-29 1/2)
Game 535-536: Illinois vs. Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 70.900; Missouri 70.200
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 1
Vegas Line: Missouri by 3
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+3)
Game 537-538: Marshall at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 53.711; Dayton 67.915
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 14
Vegas Line: Dayton by 10
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-10)
Game 539-540: SMU at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 48.169; Northwestern 67.138
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 19
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 16
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-16)
Game 541-542: New Mexico State at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 59.606; New Mexico 64.657
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 5
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+10 1/2)
Game 543-544: UL Monroe at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 39.871; Colorado 58.478
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-16 1/2)
Game 545-546: Texas at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 70.166; Wisconsin 71.525
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+1 1/2)
Game 547-548: Wyoming at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 54.195; UCLA 76.368
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 22
Vegas Line: UCLA by 19
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-19)
Game 549-550: St. Mary's (CA) at Pacific
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 63.568; Pacific 59.452
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 4
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+7 1/2)
Game 551-552: Kansas at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 69.707; Arizona 75.400
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 6
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-2)
Game 553-554: Stanford at Santa Clara
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 60.265; Santa Clara 59.321
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1
Vegas Line: Stanford by 4
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+4)
Game 555-556: UC-Riverside at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 49.626; Hawaii 56.581
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 7
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 5
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-5)
Game 557-558: St. Louis vs. Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 55.275; Fresno State 51.491
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 559-560: DePaul vs. Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.881; Creighton 66.536
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 561-562: Idaho State at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 51.834; Arizona State 71.460
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 22
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+22)
Game 563-564: Marist at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 48.711; Delaware 55.673
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 7
Vegas Line: Delaware by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+11 1/2)
Game 565-566: Niagara at St. Bonaventure
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 59.457; St. Bonaventure 59.390
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Niagara by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+2 1/2)
Game 567-568: Buffalo at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 55.753; Siena 67.203
Dunkel Line: Siena by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 9
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-9)
Game 569-570: Iona at Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 52.354; Hofstra 54.138
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 2
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 4
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+4)
Game 571-572: SE Missouri State at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 37.974; Arkansas State 56.414
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 16
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-16)
Game 573-574: Portland State at Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 56.737; Gonzaga 79.043
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 22
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 19
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-19)
Game 575-576: Weber State at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 50.302; Southern Mississippi 62.285
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 12
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-10 1/2)
Game 577-578: George Washington at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 53.989; Sacramento State 46.514
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 7
Vegas Line: George Washington by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+9 1/2)
NHL
Anaheim at Calgary
The Ducks look to build on their 6-3 record against the Flames over the last three seasons. Anaheim is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+125).
Game 1-2: Ottawa at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.368; Philadelphia 13.014
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Over
Game 3-4: Washington at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.091; NY Rangers 10.321
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 5-6: Los Angeles at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.646; Columbus 9.968
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+120); Over
Game 7-8: Boston at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.948; New Jersey 12.210
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-110); Under
Game 9-10: Atlanta at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 9.355; NY Islanders 10.298
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 11-12: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.400; Pittsburgh 10.071
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+170); Under
Game 13-14: Nashville at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.038; Florida 10.825
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+110); Over
Game 15-16: Dallas at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.992; Toronto 13.338
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Under
Game 17-18: St. Louis at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.694; Detroit 13.505
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-375); 6
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-375); Under
Game 19-20: Carolina at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.354; Minnesota 11.665
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Under
Game 21-22: Phoenix at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.264; Colorado 11.135
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+125); Under
Game 23-24: Anaheim at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.395; Calgary 10.652
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+125); Over
Game 25-26: Vancouver at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.010; San Jose 11.604
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+180); Over
NCAAF
TCU vs. Boise State
The Horned Frogs look to take advantage of the extra time to prepare and build on their perfect 5-0 ATS record over the last three seasons when they have 2 weeks or more of rest. TCU is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Horned Frogs favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: TCU (-2 1/2).
Game 211-212: TCU vs. Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 106.403; Boise State 102.588
Dunkel Line: TCU by 4; 50
Vegas Line: TCU by 2 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-2 1/2); Over
TheSpread Preview & Pick
Take TCU –3 to knock off undefeated Boise State
Boise State used trick plays to upset Oklahoma in a BCS bowl two years ago. Though they were left out of a big-money game this season, the Broncos may be in need of some extra offensive ingenuity again.
The ninth-ranked Broncos, whose undefeated record wasn't good enough for a BCS spot, look to overcome the second-ranked defense in the nation when they face No. 11 TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl at San Diego on Dec. 23.
Oddsmakers from Online Sportsbook Sports Interaction have made TCU –2.5 point spread favorites for the Poinsettia Bowl against Boise State. Current College Fooball Public Betting Information shows that 50% of more than 10,233 bets for this game have been placed on the Boise State +2.5.
Boise State (12-0) has landed in the four-year-old Poinsettia in perhaps the marquee matchup of any of the non-BCS bowl games.
Despite winning their games by an average of 27.2 points, the Broncos were a longshot to nab one of the two at-large berths available in the BCS, especially with Utah from the Mountain West Conference ranked two spots higher. The Utes will face Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl went with Ohio State instead of Boise State, even though the Broncos were ranked one spot higher in the final BCS standings.
But Boise State, coming off its sixth WAC championship, doesn't mind facing a team as highly regarded as TCU (10-2), which has only lost to No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 10 Utah.
"We wanted to go to the BCS, but I believe this is the best bowl game there is outside the BCS," Broncos receiver Vinny Perretta said. "We did everything we could do. I'm not going to sit here and complain about it."
The Broncos have faced just one ranked team this season, then-No. 17 Oregon on Sept. 20. They led the Ducks 34-13 before winning 37-32 in Eugene, their first road win over a BCS-conference team.
Boise State has the 12th-ranked offense in the nation, averaging 39.4 points a contest, but may find it tough to put up 30 points versus TCU.
In the Broncos' stunning Fiesta Bowl upset over the Sooners two years ago, they used a hook-and-lateral to score the tying touchdown and a Statue of Liberty play to score the decisive 2-point conversion to cap a 13-0 season and earn a No. 5 ranking in the final AP poll.
They may want to think about digging deep into their playbook for this contest, too.
The Horned Frogs boast the nation's second-ranked scoring defense, holding opponents to 10.9 points per game. Only No. 5 Southern California has allowed fewer points, giving up 7.8 a contest.
TCU has the top-ranked rushing defense, with opponents gaining 48.7 yards per game. That's 24.9 yards less than No. 3 Texas, which is second in that category at 73.6 yards per game.
"I totally think TCU is a BCS team and most of the people who know about TCU think the same," Boise State coach Chris Petersen said. "This is the best team we will have played all year. It will present a tremendous challenge to us without question."
Foremost, the Broncos will have to account for Frogs defensive end Jerry Hughes, who leads the nation with 14 sacks and has 18 1/2 tackles for loss. He also has two interceptions, six forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries.
Hughes helped lead TCU in a 44-10 win over Air Force on Nov. 22 in its regular-season finale. It was the eighth time the Frogs held an opponent to 10 points or fewer.
Boise State, though, has an offense that flourished late, averaging 49.0 points in its last five games, and it has plenty of playmakers. The Broncos set a season high in points against Fresno State on Nov. 28 in their final regular-season game, winning 61-10.
Kellen Moore, a second-team all-WAC selection, led the league with a 161.5 passer rating. The redshirt freshman completed 70.0 percent of his passes for 3,264 yards and 25 touchdowns against nine interceptions.
Moore is complemented by a rushing attack that averages 183.5 yards a contest. Ian Johnson and Jeremy Avery share the load, combining for 1,416 yards and 16 TDs.
"Boise State is a BCS-caliber team, and I have a high admiration for Chris Petersen and his staff," TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "They do an outstanding job in all phases of their team."
Still, the Broncos have been inconsistent on offense at times, and they will have little margin for error against the Frogs.
TCU also has a potent offense, which is often overshadowed by its stifling defense. The Frogs have five players with at least 399 yards rushing, and lead the nation in time of possession (34:50). It will be critical for TCU to try and control the clock, especially if Boise State finds a way to crack the Frogs' defense.
The Frogs ranked 13th in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 215.6 yards per game. But TCU's passing game also started heating up toward the end of the regular season, topping 300 yards in two of its last four games.
Andy Dalton has been mostly mistake-free, completing 58.8 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards and 11 TDs while getting picked off four times. He'll be facing a Boise State defense that has certainly held its own.
The Broncos are third in the nation in scoring defense at 12.3 points per game, a number inflated by 27 points on interception returns. They rank 15th against the run, giving up 104.9 yards a contest.
TCU and Boise State will be facing each other for the second time. The first meeting was also a matchup of Top 25 teams with the 18th-ranked Broncos beating the 19th-ranked Frogs 34-31 in the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl.
Andre Gomes
CLE / HOU Under 187
In the beginning of this road trip, Houston said that their goal was to be a team similar to the Celtics, Lakers or Cavs and today they will have the opportunity to test themselves against one of these teams. Both teams are coming from two easy games where their offense was on fire. The Rockets dropped 114 yesterday in New Jersey while shooting 43-74 FG for a whooping 58.1% FG. Curiously the Cavs had a similar performance in their last game on the road, as they shot 43-76 (55.2%) FG at Oklahoma, in a game where they had already scored 82 points after three quarters. So, these teams are coming to this game with a happy mood and with big wins against opponents below their class. But today things will be different, as this game will be more physical and intense and so the offense won't have an easy task like in their previous game.
Cleveland is the best defense of the league and in their last 10 games, their numbers are scary: 83.4 ppg and 42.1% FG allowed! Today they will have a good test against a top team. The Rockets are coming from two easy wins at Minnesota and New Jersey, where their offense worked well and they managed to get big leads and then they only had to maintain the lead for the rest of the game. Today their offensive letdown is going to be evident, as the Cavs are from a different class. It's also important to note that Houston is 12-0 Under in road games after scoring 100 points or more in 4 straight games since 1996. The same can be said about the Cavs, as this will be the first game after a road trip and normally teams aren't at their best offensive level in this kind of spot. This gets even more important as this road trip of the Cavs was their first this season.
In terms of matchup, this game game promises to be a low scoring game. Yao Ming had a big game last night against the Nets with 8-14 FG, 24pts and 16reb, but today opposition will be different, as Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao are top defenders. This battle of the frontcourt will be very tough and nobody will get a clear upperhand, as we are in front of two of the best teams of the league in terms of rebounding margin. It's also important to refer that Lebron James will have tough opposition in this game, as both Artest and Battier are two of the best SF defenders in the league and for some reason the last four games between these two teams ended up being under, with these games ending with 178, 169, 176 and 144(!) points scored.
Cleveland is yet to lose at home this season and Cleveland is 5-1 Under in their last 6 games as a home favorite. I expect this game to be extremely physical and in these conditions, we have all the necessary factors for this game to be a low scoring game. Take the under in here
Tommy the Swami
Oklahoma City + 12
This is only our 2nd time this season siding with the new OC (formerly Seattle). We won the first time a few days ago as the Thunder actually won the game SU vs Totonto for just their 3rd win of the season. A SU win here in Atlanta would be a big surprise, but getting the win vs the number would be more the norm. The OC has covered 9 of their last 10 at Atlanta & now & then, it's best to why ask why?, and just go with the flow. We do catch the Hawks in a letdown spot. They are fresh off taking down the Pistons at home in a tough defensive battle holding on for an 85-78 win. Hawks in some trouble spots.Atl 30-44 @ off a SU W - 12-24 off 2 gms as Home favs -18-33 off 2 gms as favs . The OC undervalued on the road covering in 10 of their 13 away games this season.
Rob Homyak
5 units on Boise State + points
Oddsmakers currently have the Horned Frogs listed as 3-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
Andy Dalton had a pair of touchdown passes in Week 13 to lead the Horned Frogs to a 44-10 win over Air Force.
The Horned Frogs managed to cover the 20-point spread in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the day's posted total (41.5).
Boise State exploded for 48 second half points in a 61-10 pounding of Fresno State in Week 14. Boise State covered the 22-point spread, and the 71 points sailed OVER the posted total of 58.
Ian Johnson rushed for 130 yards with two touchdowns to lead Boise State. Kellen Moore completed 17-of-23 for 217 yards with two TD's in the win.
Boise State has gone unbeaten in three of the last five regular seasons, has won ten games or more in seven of the last nine seasons, and has won 108 games in the last ten seasons. Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Boise State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
Larry Ness
Rivalry Game of the Week 15*
The knock against Illinois' Bruce Weber is that he can't recruit. No one says he can't coach. He won 112 games (28 per) in his first four seasons at Illinois, including the 2004-05 team which opened 29-0 before finishing 37-2 after a title-game loss to North Carolina. However, last year's team really struggled, going 16-19. Both Pruitt (12.6-7.3) and Randle (9.4-5.5) are gone from that team and of course there was the loss of guard Jamar Smith, who was dismissed from the team. However, the Illini have opened the year 10-1, losing only to Clemson, 76-74 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and in case anyone is not aware, the Tigers are unbeaten! Missouri is also coming off a tough year. The Tigers upset then-No. 7 Texas 97-84 in Columbia in early January last season but then finished 5-11 the rest of the way (16-16 overall). The month of January was marred by an off-the-court altercation outside of a bar and led to the dismissal of the team's leading scorer, Hannah (14.7-5.3 APG). Mike Anderson (former UAB head coach) had gone 18-12 in his first year with te Tigers, so LY was a "step back." Not only was Hannah not coming back TY but Keon Lawrence (11.0 PPG) decided to transfer to Seton Hall. That being said, Anderson's team is 9-1 and ranked for the first time since the week of Dec 29, 2003. Why not? The Tigers have won seven straight since a 75-71 loss Nov 20 to Xavier (a pretty good team) in Puerto Rico. Missouri is led by two outstanding senior forwards, the 6-8 Carroll (17.6-7.3) and the 6-9 Lyons (13.7-6.7). The other three starters are 6-7 big guard Matt Lawrence (9.5) plus junior guards Tiller (6.4-2.8-3.3) and Taylor (4.2-3.2-3.5). Five other players have also appeared in all 10 games TY, guards Denmon, English and Paul (average a combined 19 PPG) and forwards Safford and Ramsey (combined averages of 8.1-6.0). Anderson is looking to implement his mentor's (Nolan Richardson) "40 minutes of Hell" and he's got the athletes and depth to do just that this year. Illinois has two big sophs who have made great strides this seqason. The 7-1 Tisdale is up from 3.7-1.7 to 10.4-4.5 and the 6-10 Davis has gone from averaging 2.6-1.8 to 13.0-8.2. Senior guard Frazier (7.2-3.8-6.6) is surrounded in the backcourt by two more sophomores, McCamey (12.4-3.3-4.8) and Meachem (10.9). Illinois' depth does not quite match Missouri's as the 6-7 Legion (a prized freshman) was lost after the first game. The 6-7 Keller (6.4) and 6-5 Brock (5.2) are however, solid. The 10-1 Illini have won four straight since the loss to Clemson (all by double-digit margins) and have 'owned' this series lately, winning eight consecutive meetings since a 78-72 loss in 1999. It's played every year in the days before Christmas and has been dubbed "the Braggin' Rights series." It's my feeling that it's finally Missouri's time and enough is enough. The Tigers have won seven straight since that four-point loss to Xavier, winning by an average margin of 21.9 PPG. They rank in the top five nationally in scoring (86.3 PPG), APG (20.4) and steals per game (11.3). Anderson has "his kind of team" this year and that eight-year losing drought to Illinois ends tonight!
Rivalry Game of the Week 15* Missouri.
Nelly’s Green Sheet
POINSETTIA BOWL
Tcu (-2½) Boise State (46)
Many of the early bowl games often lack intrigue but this year the Poinsettia Bowl has a gem with two of the top non-BCS conference teams in the nation. Boise State is undefeated but was left of the BCS roster as Utah also went undefeated. Utah barely beat TCU this season so this will be an opportunity to make a statement for the Broncos. Boise State has incredibly dominant numbers this season, out-scoring opponents by an average of over 27 points per game with only two games all season being decided by single-digits. TCU faced a much tougher schedule and the two teams that beat the Horned Frogs are playing in BCS bowls. Although Boise State has excellent numbers on defense, TCU has incredible numbers on defense with the top ranked run defense in the nation while allowing fewer than eleven points per game and only 215 yards per game. TCU is not known for offense but the Frogs averaged 35 points per game and often the offense is set up in favorable situations from the defense. Everyone remembers Boise State’s big win over Oklahoma two seasons ago but the Broncos have lost outright in three of the last four bowl games. TCU meanwhile is 5-0 ATS in the last five bowl games including a close loss to Boise State in the 2003 Forth Worth Bowl. At first glance it appears odd to see Boise State as an underdog with a perfect record but TCU has been that impressive. The Frogs have been a fantastic favorite with an 11-3 ATS mark in the last 14 games but Boise State has also excelled in the rare instances that they have played as underdogs . Although both teams are considered among the best of non-BCS conference teams neither has many impressive wins. Boise State won at Oregon but the rest of the schedule was light and TCU lost its two toughest games. TCU 28-21
RATING 3: TCU (-2½) RATING 1: ‘OVER 49’
THE GOLD SHEET
POINSETTIA BOWL
TCU (10-2) vs. BOISE STATE (12-0)
Tuesday, December 23 Night at San Diego,
*Boise State 22 - Tcu 19—In truth, both of these entries might be BCSworthy,
as many gridiron aficionados believe TCU (and not Utah) was the best
Mountain West squad in ‘08, while many WAC sources suggest Boise might be
even better than its last unbeaten squad from ‘06, one that made it to the BCS
and upset Oklahoma in a memorable Fiesta Bowl classic. While most pundits are
quick to note (and correctly so) that the Broncos have not faced a defense as
voracious as TCU’s 2nd-ranked (only 215 ypg!) platoon,Boise’s high-pressure stop
unit is formidable in its own right, allowing only 12.3
ppg (ranks 3rd nationally). With the Broncos’ hard-hitting safeties Jeron
Johnson, Ellis Powers, and George Iloka consistently stuffing the run and setting
a physical tone, we’re not sure the Frogs’ bread-and-butter ground game will
prove the necessary diversion to QB Andy Dalton’s preferred play-action tactics.
And if any OL can slow TCU’s sackmeister DE Jerry Hughes, it’s a Boise forward
wall that allowed QB Kellen Moore to be sacked only 11 times all year. With
plenty of playmakers on offense, and hellbent to erase the memory of last year’s
sleepwalking Hawaii Bowl loss vs. East Carolina (HC Petersen vowed to never
go as easy on his troops in bowl preparation again), the Broncos are capable of
solving the Frogs’ defensive riddle and finishing unbeaten once again.
(DNP...SR: Boise State 1-0)
THE SPORTS MEMO
POINSETTIA BOWL
TCU -2.5 vs. Boise State O/U 46
Recommendation: TCU
While this game features the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked scoring defenses in the country, there is a significant difference between the two units. Points allowed is a key statistic but beyond those numbers, TCU is the premier defensive group in this contest. The accolades are endless but here are a few that need to be acknowledged in handicapping this game. First off, there were only two teams in the entire country this season that allowed their opponents less than four yards per play: USC (3.38) and TCU (3.77). TCU played five bowl teams this season including Oklahoma, BYU and Utah who all averaged over 35 points and 400 total yards per game. The Horned Frogs held all five bowl bound opponents to season lows in either scoring or total yards. TCU incredibly held Oklahoma to their season low of 35 points and missed limiting them to their season low in total yardage by just a yard as they allowed 436 while Texas held the Sooners to just 435. They stifled their entire schedule yielding 300 or more yards to only the Sooners. They were one of only three teams to record 40+ sacks and allowed less than 50% pass completions and 47.1 yards per game rushing. Head coach Gary Patterson’s group owned a huge 167 per game rushing yardage advantage over their opposition. They’ve been simply dominant in every defensive aspect all season long. Meanwhile Boise has been extremely good at keeping teams off the scoreboard but they gave up over 300 yards six times. They simply aren’t as overwhelming a group as the Horned Frogs. Postseason participants Oregon and Nevada racked up 464 yards and 385 yards respectively. With TCU being a very diverse and capable offense (215.7 rypg, 201.4 pypg), we expect them to have some success. Veteran triggerman Andy Dalton has been extraordinarily efficient in the passing game throwing just four interceptions on 272 attempts. His running ability makes him a legitimate dual-threat and Boise did have some trouble with Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick who totaled 311 yards. Boise freshman quarterback Kellen Moore has been equally efficient, throwing 25 touchdowns and only nine interceptions on 370 attempts. The Broncos have a slew of productive skill players in running backs Ian Johnson and Jeremiah Avery plus wie receivers Jeremy Childs, Vinny Perretta and Austin Pettis. All five of those players ranked in the WAC’s top 15 statistically at their positions. Comparing the season-long numbers between these teams doesn’t show much separation but thorough a deeper examination we give the clear edge to TCU. They’ll use their powerful offensive and defensive fronts along with their superior team speed to methodically control this one. Boise has not seen a defense anywhere near this class and they don’t have enough trickery to get past the Horned Frogs’ strength and speed. Look for TCU cover the less than field goal price.
Logical Approach
As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:
Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll
5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch
Poinsettia Bowl
This is one of the most attractive of all 34 Bowl matchups including the BCS games. It is also very intriguing on several fronts as Boise State looks to complete their second unbeaten season in 3 years. Included in their 12-0 season is a 37-32 road win at Oregon in which the Ducks closed the gap late to make the game look close. Boise was in control all the way. TCU stepped up in class but lost at Oklahoma 35-10. But no other team held Oklahoma to under 35 points all season (Texas held the Sooners to exactly 35). In fact, defense is the key in describing this game. In total yards allowed TCU ranked # 2 nationally, Boise State # 15. In points allowed TCU was # 2, Boise State # 3. Against the rush TCU was # 1 (49 yards per game) while Boise was # 15 (105 ypg). Other than Oklahoma no team scored more than 14 points against TCU all season. And other than the 32 points allowed at Oregon and 34 allowed at Nevada (in a 41-34 win) Boise did not allow more than 16 points to any of their other 10 foes. TCU held 7 teams to 7 points or less. Boise did the same to 6 of their foes. Both teams have above average offenses and also each averaged at least 35 points per game, allowing for the seemingly high total. But many of the points these teams scored came as a result of defensive plays. These teams are very evenly matched and this game handicaps as one of the best played and most competitive of all Bowls. Defenses should dominate offenses. TCU does have the better balanced offense and they rarely turn the ball over, losing just 13 turnovers all season. Yet Boise's defense forced 31 turnovers this season, # 4 in the nation at 2.6 per game. Boise is the underdog despite being unbeaten and if the line rises to + 3 they would be upgraded one star. As it is the preference is for a low scoring game and that is where the strength of this selection lies. Look for Boise State to complete their undefeated season by beating TCU 23-16, making BOISE STATE a 2 Star
Selection and the UNDER a 4 Star Selection .
MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK
POINSETTIA BOWL
Tcu over Boise St by 6
Undoubtedly the best matchup of the non-major Bowl games, why are these
two teams meeting on December 23rd while Buffalo-UConn and Tulsa-Ball
State are the lead-ins to the BCS Championship game? Is Bud Selig behind
this one? All kidding aside, this looks to be a classic confrontation between
offense versus defense. We’ve all witnessed the Boise State offense in that
incredible Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma but let’s not forget about the
TCU defense. The Horned Frogs, along with Texas, held Oklahoma to their
lowest point total of the season (35) and their 2nd lowest yardage mark
(436), just ONE more yard than the Longhorns allowed. In fact, the Horned
ones have held 9 opponents to season low yardage this year, the best in the
FBS. In terms of pedigree, both squads arrive with suitable credentials. The
Broncos are 14-3 SU versus Bowlers over the last three years while TCU is 7-2
SU and 6-2-1 ATS in Bowl appearances since 1998. They tell us good pitching
stops good hitting and defense wins championships. Who are we to argue?
Especially when our wise database tells us that undefeated Bowl dogs of less
than 10 points off an ATS win of more than 10 points are just 1-5 SU and ATS.
Gary Patterson’s 7-1 ATS mark with rest against non conference opponents
seals it. ‘D’ before ‘O’, that’s how we’ll go.
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP
POINSETTIA BOWL
This is TCU’s 10th bowl in 11 years & they are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS (4-0-1 L/5) under HC Patterson while this is BSU’s 9th bid in 10 yrs (5-3 SU/ATS) and they are 1-1 SU/ATS under Petersen. #19 TCU’s last bowl loss was 34-31 (+11) to #18 Boise in the inaugural Ft Worth Bowl (‘03), the schools’ only previous matchup. It is the only Dec bowl that matches 2 DD win teams and the combined rankings of the 2 teams are the highest among non-BCS bowls (5th overall). TCU led Utah for over 59 mins before allowing a TD pass which cost them the MWC Title. Ironically, that Utes win cost Boise a coveted BCS bid but at least the Broncos get a quality opp here. The Frogs have lost to teams with a combined 24-1 record (Oklahoma & Utah) while BSU won their 6th WAC Title (2nd under Petersen) in the L/7Y and went undefeated for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Frogs faced 5 bowl-caliber tms & went 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS outscoring those opp 22-14 & outgaining them 392-274. BSU faced 8 bowl-elig tms & went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS outscoring them by 20 ppg & outgaining them by 97 ypg.TCU has 17 upperclassmen starters including 13 Sr’s while BSU has 13 upperclassmen & 11 Sr’s. TCU plays on a grass HF while the Broncos are 3-0 ATS the L/2Y on the real stuff. TCU went 9-2 ATS as a fav while BSU went 3-1 SU/ATS as a dog including the bowls L/3Y. Not surprisingly BCS schools have courted both HC’s but both have remained loyal for now. TCU has our #31 off and is led by dual threat QB Dalton who made 10 starts (missed 2 gms w/inj) & accounted for 19 ttl TD’s (11 pass, 8 rush). Dalton’s bkup, Jackson, is the tm’s #3 rusher in a limited role. Leading WR Young has more than 3x the ttl rec yds and twice the TD’s of any other rec on the tm & was named 2nd Tm MWC. TCU’s OL avg 6’4” 311 with 3 Sr starters. They pave the way for 216 ypg rush (4.4) while all’g 18 sks (5.4%). TCU is #2 in our D rankings & has simply dominated all ssn. The Horned Frogs have all’d 7+ pts in just 5 gms & surrendered just 11 ppg (#2 NCAA). The DL avg 6’2” 269 with 3 Sr’s & the cohesive unit has started every game. They are #1 in the NCAA all’g just 49 ypg rush (1.7) which is 25 ypg better than any other team in the nation! The D is led by AA & MWC D POY (1st D POY at TCU S/’02) Jerry Hughes who leads the nation in sks with 14. TCU has the #4 pass eff D all’g just 166 ypg (49%) with an 8-14 ratio. The ST’s unit (#18) avg 27.0 ypr on KR & 11.9 ypr on PR. Ret specialist Kerley is the 4th consec 1st Tm MWC RS for TCU. The Horned Frogs give up an avg of 19.0 on KR & 7.7 on PR & they have also all’d 3 blk’d K’s TY. Kellen Moore became the first frosh to start at QB in BSU history & turned in a fantastic year en route to earning ‘08 WAC Frosh of the Year honors. Moore led the WAC in pass eff, comp % & TD passes & was 2nd in pass ypg & ttl off. BSU’s OL avg 6’3” 285 with 2 Sr’s & is anchored by 1st Tm WAC LT Woodruff who was the only OL to start every game TY. While RB Johnson recorded his fewest total rushing yds since his frosh ssn (‘05), he was still an integral part of the Broncos’ offense as he led BSU in rushing & TD’s & is the nation’s active leader in career rush TD’s with 57. WR Childs earned 1st Tm WAC honors & is #4 in the WAC in rec per game & rec ypg, while WR Pettis nabbed 2nd Tm WAC honors. BSU has our #20 off & our #14 D with 3 players (DE Winterswyk, S Powers & CB Wilson) named 1st Tm WAC. BSU’s DL avg 6’3” 260 with 3 Sr’s & is all’g just 105 ypg rush (3.0) while posting 22 of the team’s 34 sks. Boise all’d just 12.3 ppg (#3 NCAA) & held 8 foes to 10 or less pts (6 to 7 or less). BSU just missed breaking the WAC record for fewest pts all’d in conf play (89) with 94 with the D only all’g 67 of those pts. BSU has our #3 ST unit. K/P Brotzman has range beyond 50 yds & has made all 115 of his PAT’s (128 is WAC record). He is also a rugby-style P. Wilson (2nd Tm WAC on ST) is a huge threat on PR’s with his NCAA-leading 3 PR TD’s. TCU has been the poster child for defensive teams and they’ve held every opp to 14 pts or less except for Oklahoma, which they held to a season-low 35. Boise, meanwhile, has solid D numbers but their WAC sk’d is much lighter. Boise rates as a slightly better offensive tm having avg’d 49 ppg the L/5 but a closer look shows that they’ve only played 1 D rated in the NCAA’s top half. Expect the Horned Frogs to shut down another bowl foe as they’ve allowed a total of 20 pts the L/2 bowl gms. FORECAST: TCU BY 13
RATING: 3* TCU
RAS
Sides
St Louis-3
Hofstra -4.5
New Mexico State +10.5
Hurley
Medium : TCU
Medium : TCU/Boise under 46