Christian Alexander
TCU at Boise State
Play: TCU -2.5
Very interesting matchup as you have the undefeated Boise State Broncos, a program feeling passed over since they are undefeated yet left out of the BCS bowl picture. Broncos fans would be quite to remind you that just a couple years ago they proved they belonged on the big stage when they upset Oklahoma in what has to be one of the greatest football games I have ever seen.
And on the other side you have the 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs, a team that lost at Oklahoma - certainly excusable - and let one slip away at Utah - a undefeated team that basically took Boise State's spot in the BCS.
Despite Boise State not only being undefeated but also winning every game by just over 27 points a game, I'm siding with the two loss Horned Frogs. Why? Two words, DE - FENSE.
Behind the 12th-ranked offense in the nation, Boise State has basically run away from teams this year, putting up nearly 40 points a game.
But the Broncos might have to find a new strategy to get past TCU. That's because the Horned Frogs have the 2nd ranked scoring defense in college football, holding teams to just 10 points a game - only Southern California is better. (7.8 ppg)
Only three times this season was Boise State held to less than 30 points and in all three of those games the Broncos opponents only scored seven points.
In that regard, this game will be different than any other Boise has played. TCU will hold the Boise offense to roughly 20 points, or less, and the Horned Frogs will be able to score right along with them.
TCU is used to winning in this fashion and Boise will be in foreign territory. Advantage TCU.
BeatYourBookie
100* Play TCU (-3) over Boise State
TCU is 8-1 SU & ATS after having won 6 or 7 of the last 8 games
TCU is 5-0 SU & ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest
TCU is 2-0 SU & ATS when playing on a neutral field the last 3 seasons
Nite Owl Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks
Pick: 3 units Oklahoma City Thunder +12
It's not just that Hawks (as in the Atlanta Hawks) are natural enemies of owls (as in Nite Owl Sports). We actually like Okla City to cover the point spread against these Hawks in this battle of evenly matched teams. Yes, we hear most of you asking how we could possibly say that the 17-10 Atlanta Hawks and the 3-25 Okla City Thunder, the "Rodney Dangerfields" of TY's NBA, are "evenly matched teams." But in the world of point spreads that we deal in, they are basically even, with Okies at 16-12 and Hawks ar 16-11. But that's where the point spread similarity stops, as Okies are a virtual ATM machine at 9-2 ATS as double digit road dogs, the role they find themselves in tonite, and practically every other time they play on the road. And if you delete the result of their game at Cleve, who has been beating virtually every opponent they have faced at home TY by 20>, the average MOL (margin of loss) for Okies is just 8 ppg as a double digit road dog.While Okie's 1-12 SU road record is pretty ugly, the sow's ear turns into a silk purse the more times they win for you ATS in that role. And although Okies used to be the Seattle Sonics, they still have the same core group of players (as when they were the Sonics), and with Seattle having won its last 5 games in Atlanta both SU and ATS, most of the players on this team have good memories of Phillips Arena, which helps with the confidence factor.
Looking at Atlanta, we see a tale of two teams, -- one the that plays up to the level of its competition, going 9-2 ATS TY vs teams > .500, including 4-0 ATS at home, with a recent upset win over Cleve and a near upset win over the defending champs Boston Celtics in the game after that; but then there's the "other" Atlanta team that plays down to the level of its competition, going just 4-9 ATS vs teams under .500 like Okies, incl 2-6 ATS at home vs such sub .500 teams. And that other Atlanta team, which we expect to be the one taking the floor tonite, is 2-6 ATS as home faves of 7> points, with an average MOV (margin of victory) of just 4.5 points in those 8 games. And with Hawks already having beaten this team in Okla City earlier TY, and with team at home over Christmas and the players being able to spend the Christmas holiday with their families, we don't expect a very focused or intense effort from these Hawks tonite, at least not enough of one to beat this lofty spread.
seabass
20 lakers under
20* ok city
20* miami
20* portland
20* samford
Robert Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. Take Wyoming (+19) over UCLA
1.5-Unit Play. Take Stanford (-4) over Santa Clara
1.5-Unit Play. Take Missouri (-3) over Illinois
1-Unit Play. Take Texas (-1) over Wisconsin
1-Unit Play. Take SMU (+17) over Northwestern
1-Unit Play. Take Niagara (-2.5) over St. Bonaventure
1-Unit Play. Take Xavier (-7.5) over Butler
I also have a lean on Marshall, Hawaii, Idaho State and Toledo
JEFF BENTON
15 Dime: TCU (minus the points vs. Boise State)
5 Dime: ROCKETS (plus the points vs. Cavaliers)
5 Dime: TEXAS (minus the points vs. Wisconsin)
TCU
How can a 10-2 team be favored over a 12-0 squad? Because the 10-2 team is better and has faced much stiffer competition, that’s how! TCU’s two defeats this year came against teams that are in BCS Bowl games and are a combined 24-1. That would be Utah and Oklahoma. And when you consider that no objective observer would argue that TCU absolutely should’ve won at Utah and that the Horned Frogs held Oklahoma, which scored 60-plus points in its last five games and led the nation in scoring, to a season-low 35 points, well, it’s easy to understand this selection. Look, I’m not about to disparage Boise State – frankly, I love the Broncos and love the fact they’re always pounding on the BCS door. However, you take away a lucky 37-32 win at Oregon way back in the third week of the season – the Ducks turned the ball over multiple times in that defeat – and here’s what you’ve got: Non-conference wins over Idaho State, Bowling Green and Southern Miss, as well as WAC victories over Hawaii, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Utah State, Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State. Not exactly Murderer’s Row there! TCU, in addition to its losses to Utah and Oklahoma, crushed BYU, Stanford, New Mexico and Air Force, and won at Colorado State. Simply put, the Horned Frogs are more battle-tested. And you just cannot ignore what TCU did on defense this year, allowing 14 points or less to every team but Oklahoma. And in retrospect, that 35-10 loss in Norman, Okla., was pretty damn impressive, as the Sooners, who averaged 54 points per game, managed just seven points in the second half and managed just 25 net rushing yards! TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games, all under coach Gary Patterson, while Boise State lost to East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl last season. Also, there’s no doubt that the Broncos are absolutely disappointed that they’re not playing in a BCS game, and that disappointment will show up on the field in San Diego tonight. Lay the chalk, as the Horned Frogs, who have scored more than 30 points in eight of their last 11 games, are favored for a reason.
Rockets
I’m sorry, I know that the Cavaliers are sensational and playing way above their heads. I also know that the Rockets are in the middle of a tough four-game road trip, which includes last night’s win at New Jersey. But this pointspread is ridiculous! I mean, Houston has scored 108, 107, 109 and 114 points in its last four games, and the Rockets have scored in triple digits in 11 of their last 16 games. They’ve won and covered four games in a row, and they’re 14-5 SU in their last 19 games, including 7-3 SU and ATS on the road. Additionally, the Rockets are an impressive 41-18-1 ATS n their last 60 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, including 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Central Division. They’ve also cashed in eight of their last 10 games against the Cavaliers, going 8-2 ATS during this stretch, including winning both meetings last year by margins of 16 and 8 points – and yes, LeBron James played in both of those games for the Cavaliers. In fact, in the last four meetings – three of which Houston won – Cleveland has averaged just 77.5 ppg. Bottom line: Houston, which entered this season as a darkhorse pick to win the stacked Western Conference, is playing its best basketball of the season right now. Because of that, I just cannot pass up these generous points – especially since the Rockets have been an underdog of more than five points just once all season. Play the underdog.
Texas
The oddsmakers are telling us something with this pointspread. I mean, both teams are 9-2 on the season, Texas has yet to play on an opponent’s home court, Wisconsin is 6-0 in its building this season, the Badgers beat the Longhorns in Austin last year … and Texas is favored tonight? Why do you think that is? Because the Longhorns are better, simple as that. Texas has faced such quality opponents as UCLA, Notre Dame, St. Joe’s, Villanova and Michigan State, and while it lost to the Irish and Spartans, those two defeats were by a total of five points. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has played just two Top 25 teams to this point, and not only did the Badgers lose both of those games to Marquette and UConn, they scored just 57 and 58 points! In fact, Wisconsin has managed 60 points or fewer in five of its last nine games, and that includes matchups against Coppin State (57 points), Idaho State (60 points) and Iona (60 points). Meanwhile, Texas is averaging 73.3 points per game, scoring at least 67 points in 10 of their 11 contests this season. In the end, this is a big home game for Wisconsin, but the Badgers just do not have the scoring punch to hang with the 5th-ranked team in the nation. Respect the oddsmaker’s number and lay the small price with Texas.
DOC
4-Unit Play - Totals Game of the Week Take Philadelphia/Boston UNDER
You have got to love a total in the mid 190s when two of the Top 10 defensive teams in the NBA are involved. And that is what we are presented with on Tuesday night. We see this as a public line and the square bettors seem to be jumping on the over here. Just because Philadelphia is a pretty bad team doesn’t mean they can’t play good D. The Sixers have allowed only 93 PPG on defense in their last eight contests, even though they have only won half those games. This is also not a very explosive offense as they average only 91 PPG on the road. They will face a tough task tonight against a Boston defense that is No. 2 for PPG and No. 1 for defensive FG%. Three straight meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. We had this game capped in the high 180s so we think there is some very nice value here.
3 Unit Play. Take Wisconsin over Texas
For some reason the Horns just have trouble beating Big 10 teams. They lost to Michigan State and Wisconsin last year and just loss to Michigan State on Saturday. Wisconsin has won four of the five meetings and is 6-0 at home this season. The Badgers have an outstanding record at home under Bo Ryan and have played to their competition this season. They will rise up and knock off Texas and win this game straight-up.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play UNDER Boise State/TCU
AiS shows an 85% probability that 46 or fewer points will be scored in this game. TCU defense is quite good and they will make it very difficult for Boise to run the ball. AiS shows a 90% probability that TCU will allow 2.5 rushing yards per attempt or less in this game. Note that they are a solid 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when they allow less than 2.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons.Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 26-8 for 77% since 1997. Play under with any team against the total in a bowl game and in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. Here is a second system that has gone 343-14 ATS for 75% ATS since 1992. Play under in December games with all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 off a home win facing a conference rival. Boise is in a strong UNDER role noting they are 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Boise HC Peterson is a strong 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. TCU has played a far tougher schedule than Boise and is one of the many reasons they are favored over an undefeated team. I see the TCU defense completely minimizing the Boise offense. Boise will have no running game to speak of adn that will be big trouble for them as TCU will use pro style blitz schemes that they have yet to face. Boise has been practicing against these schemes, but they cannot practice at the same speed and quickness that TCU possesses. As an optional consideration I also like TCU for a small play. Take the UNDER for 7*.
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm playing on Boise State and TCU to finish UNDER the total. Yes, both offenses are more than capable. However, both defenses are also excellent. The Horned Frogs finished second in the entire nation in both total yards allowed (215.1) and points (10.9). Only USC was better. A closer look shows that the Horned Frogs held 11 of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less and that Oklahoma, the highest scoring team in the country, was the only team which topped that mark. While not quite in TCU's class, Boise State is also much better defensively than most people believe. The Broncos held 10 of their 12 opponents to 16 points or less. Eight of those teams finished with 10 or less and six of them finished with seven or less. Overall, the Broncos allowed an average of only 294.5 total yards and a mere 12.2 points. The Horned Frogs are currently laying three points at most shops. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that TCU played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. During the same stretch, Boise State saw the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for this evening's game to also prove much lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying below the generous number. *Main Event
BLOWOUT GOW
I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. These teams met last night at Denver with the Nuggets earning the win and cover. Playing with immediate revenge and returning home, I expect the Blazers to bounce back with a convincing win and cover this evening. The Blazers have been excellent at home this season, going 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average of 12 points per game. Playing in the revenge role, they won and covered vs. a red hot Phoenix team in their last game. In addition to having the homecourt advantage, the Blazers also have the schedule significantly in their favor. For starters, the Blazers are 10-5 SU and ATS the last 15 times that they played the second of back to back games. Conversely, Denver is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS its last 18 times in a back to back situation. Its more than that though. Prior to last night's game, the Blazers hadn't played since 12/18 and they had only played three games since 12/12. On the other hand, Denver, which will still be without star Carmello Anthony, played games on both 12/19 AND 12/20. That makes this the Nuggets' fourth game in the past five nights, which is as gruelling as it gets in the NBA. Note that the Nuggets are just 6-13-1 ATS (4-16 SU) the last 20 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to nine point range. Look for those numbers to get even worse, as the Blazers prove to be both the 'fresher' and the 'hungrier' team. *Blowout GOW
Black Widow Sports
1* on Central Michigan -4.5
These are two terrible 3-7 teams meeting tonight, and we’ll side with the small home favorite to get the job done. The reason: Detroit is 0-7 on the road this season and 1-5 ATS. They haven’t even been competitive on the road, losing by an average of nearly 18.0 points per contest. Central Michigan is 2-1 ATS at home this year which is enough to give them the nod as Tuesday’s free college basketball pick. Central Michigan is now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. So although these teams have identical records, Central Michigan is the team going under the radar as a solid squad against the spread. The Chippewas beat Detroit by 4 points on the road last season, so at home in 2008 Central Michigan should annihilate this pathetic team. Detroit is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a game with 9 or less assists over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take Central Michigan and lay the points.
BlackMagicSports
1 Unit on Kansas +3
I have Kansas winning outright over Arizona tonight. The Arizona Wildcats are coming off of their worst performance of the season in a 64-79 blowout loss to UNLV. Kansas is coming off one of their best games, a 71-59 win over Temple, which was the same Owls’ team that beat Tennessee handily ust a few weeks back. The Jayhawks have had the Wildcats’ number, going 4-2 in the last 6 meetings with Arizona. Kansas has played the better teams very tough, going 13-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 5-19 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997 and 3-12 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more since 1997. Arizona has had a hard time bouncing back following bad losses. Kansas is 17-7 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Look for the Jayhawks to kick the Wildcats while they’re already down tonight. Cash in with Kansas as the underdog.
Info Plays
3* on Idaho State +21.5
Reasons why Idaho State covers the spread Tuesday:
1.) Idaho State has played quality opponents very tough despite their record. Idaho State has lost 5 road games, but none of the losses came by more than 19 points. They lost by 3 points at Hawaii, 8 points at Boise, 19 points at Washington, 2 points at Wisconsin and 15 points at Wisconsin-Green Bay. This team will stay within 20 points of Arizona State Tuesday to get the cover.
2.) Back-to-back 1-point wins by Arizona State has them feeling invincible right now. They beat IUPUI by a final of 59-58 and BYU by a final of 76-75 in their last 2 games. The Sun Devils are living on the edge, and they are not blowing many opponents out this season. Especially not by more than 21 points.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Favorites of 20 or more points (ARIZONA ST) - a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential). This is a 61-29 ATS System hitting 67.8% over the last 5 seasons. Idaho State is not as bad as their record, and Arizona State has played way too many close game to be this hefty a favorite tonight. Bet Idaho State on the road.
JeffAlexanderSports
1 Unit on Utah Jazz +1
Utah does struggle on the road at times, and Milwaukee has been a solid home team this season, but I like what I've seen from the Jazz on this trip. They played Boston tough and then beat the Nets and the Pistons. They then right out of gas against the Bulls. The Jazz have had a few days to rest and they play a team that they have dominated with their athletic ability and length. The Jazz are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS versus the Bucks over the last 3 seasons. Utah has an 11-point win over Milwaukee this season. The Jazz will kick things in high gear to end this five-game road trip with a winning mark. Take Utah !
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Kings at Columbus
Pick: Los Angeles Kings +124
The Los Angeles Kings are mired in a four-game slump where they haven't managed to find the win column. The Blue Jackets haven't fared much better themselves as they have dropped two straight. This may be a good spot for the Kings as the Blue Jackets have a horrid history against teams from the Western Conference. They have complied just a 15-37 mark in their last 52 against the West, and an even worse 7-20 mark vs. the Pacific. The Blue Jackets haven't fared well against the poor teams, those that have a .400 winning percentage or less, either as they are just 4-9 in their last 13. This is a good spot for the dog here, so I'll back the Kings.
Houston at Cleveland
Pick: Game Total UNDER 187
Today we get a 19-9 team visiting a 23-4 team that is perfect at home. Expect some intensity, especially on the defensive end of the court. The Rockets are holding opponents to 93.8 points per game on the season and Cleveland has held opponents to just 89.2 on the season. Over their last five games, they've even stepped that up holding opponents to just 83.6 per game. The Cavs are holding opponents nearly 10 points below their scoring average on the season, so I expect the Rockets to have trouble reaching the 90s here. Cleveland is 61-40 UNDER the past three seasons when facing a winning team. The Rockets are off a high-scoring game against New Jersey, but they are 34-18 UNDER since last season when coming off an OVER. They are also a perfect 12-0 UNDER on the road the last twelve times they have taken to the road after four straight 100+ games. You can bet that with the Rockets putting up 107+ in each of their last four that Cleveland will be bringing it defensively. This one goes
UNDER.
PricelessPicks
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -3.5
Indiana has had New Jersey 's number this season with wins of 18 and 11. The Pacers will also have the benefit of a few day's rest tonight while the Nets will have to try and do it back-to-back. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW JERSEY) - revenging 2 straight losses vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, playing on back-to-back days are 42-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the number.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Warriors/Heat UNDER 217
I know Golden State has given up a lot of points on the road this season, but the Heat are predominantly a half-court team that only averages 96.4 ppg at home. Odds makers have set the bar too high tonight. Miami has gone under the total in 4 of its last 5 games and is 24-10 UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these contests totaled just 193.9 points. The Warriors have gone under the number in 6 of their last 9 as odds makers continue to jack up the total on these guys. Golden State is 13-2 UNDER in road games when it allow 105 to 109 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. I have that estimated stat trend as being spot on. Take the Under tonight.
Rocketman
5* St Louis +335
CHARLIE
tcu vs boise st under 46. (500* )
tcu -2' 30*)
cleve st -7' (20*)
xavier -8 (20*)
golden st @ miami over 217 (10*)
philly +14 (10*) free play
Adam Meyer
tcu/boise OVER 46
4* boise st (foots)
3* spurs under
3* st marys
3* stanford
ATS Lock Club
5 TCU -3
4 Wisconsin +1.5
3 Kent +7
ATS Financial Package
3 Under 45.5 TCU/Boise
3 St Mary's -7.5
3 Hawaii -5
Are these premium plays?