JIM FIEST
PHOENIX SUNS / MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
TAKE PHOENIX SUNS
Reason: The Phoenix Suns are rolling along on offense, with the 4th highest scoring attack (103 ppg). They upgraded their depth by signing Dee Brown last week, ending their search for another backup point guard. After a successful career at Illinois, Brown was drafted by Utah in the second round in 2006. He appeared in 49 regular-season games as a rookie for the Jazz. After playing the Spurs, Nuggets and Blazers last week, the Suns are looking forward to a week against the Thunder and Grizzlies. Memphis has the fourth worst defense allowing opponents to shoot 47.5% -- and you don't want to have defensive deficiencies against the Suns! Play Phoenix.
James Patrick Sports
Illinois vs. Purdue
The Illini open Big Ten play with a tough assignment in West Lafayette against the Boilermakers and they own a 1-5-1 ATS record at Mackey Arena. Purdue has captured the money at a 22-6-1 ATS clip in Big Ten action and they own a Tuesday mark of 8-2-1 ATS. Our Tuesday selection in Big Ten action is Purdue Boilermakers.
Dave Cokin
Dartmouth @ UC Davis
Play: Dartmouth +13
There may not be a game on Tuesday's slate that gets less attention than Dartmouth @ UC-Davis, but I think the Big Green are worth looking at in this contest. Dartmouth hit rock bottom in their loss against Air Force, shooting a mind boggling 21% from the field. They almost have to be better than that here. UC-Davis has never laid this many points in a game since becoming a boarded team. In fact, they've yet to ever cover a game as home chalk, standing 0-4 in that role. I see this number as simply being too high and will go with Dartmouth as a decent value for my free Tuesday opinion
Matt Fargo
Clemson at South Carolina
Prediction: Clemson
While it is Clemson who is usually guilty of the soft schedule, the Gamecocks are guilty of that this season. South Carolina has played the 347th ranked schedule in the nation and for those counting that is out of 347 teams. The best team the Gamecocks played was Charleston, who is a very good team obviously, and they lost on a neutral court. South Carolina is 8-0 at home but has beaten no one with the best team it has taken down being Jacksonville St. Clemson meanwhile has yet to lose this season and while the home slate has been similar to that of South Carolina, the Tigers have been road tested. Clemson has beaten Charlotte, Illinois and Miami Florida in true road games and TCU and Temple on neutral floors. Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning home record while South Carolina is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games against teams with a winning road record. The Gamecocks are also 3-14 ATS in home games against teams shooting 45 percent or better over the last three years. Clemson has won four straight in this series and there is no reason to believe the string won?t continue. 3* Clemson Tigers
Jimmy The Moose
Atlanta Thrashers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Over
The over is a profitable 24-11 for the Thrashers this season. Atlanta is averaging 3.29 GPP on the road while giving up 3.59. The over is a profitable 10-1-1 in the Thrashers last 12 road games. In their last 10 games vs. Northeast opponents the over is 8-2. On home ice this season the Leafs are averaging 3.06 GPG while giving up 3.56. The over is 13-6-3 in the Maple Leafs last 22 home games. The two meetings between the clubs this season have played over the total and this one will follow suit. Play the over.
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs
PICK: Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks have covered 66 percent of their games this season, tied for the second-best spread mark of all NBA teams.
A big reason for this has been hard-nosed coach Scott Skiles. The Bucks have improved their defense, upgraded their depth and gotten tougher mentally under Skiles.
Now the Bucks face the Spurs in San Antonio. The Spurs are a team the Bucks respect, but do not fear. Milwaukee plays San Antonio with a tremendous amount of confidence.
The Bucks actually have defeated the Spurs in 11 of the past 19 meetings, including 82-78 at home on Nov. 19. The Spurs were without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in that matchup, but Milwaukee also was missing Michael Redd.
The Bucks are 11-5-1 against the spread in their last 17 road games. Bucks assistant coach Kelvin Sampson knows the Spurs well, having worked briefly for them as an assistant last season.
The Bucks' confidence is up having won five times during their past seven games. San Antonio is 2-5-1 against the spread in its last eight games.
The Bucks should be able to stay within this number and once again bring home the money. This is a one-unit play for me.
SportsInsights
Oregon closed the regular season with a huge 65-38 win that knocked rival Oregon State out of a Rose Bowl berth. The Ducks come into the Holiday Bowl with a 9-3 record, and they will be seeking their second 10-win season in the past seven. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli took over behind center down the stretch and finished the regular season with 1,487 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. The strength of the Oregon offense is on the ground with tailbacks Jeremiah Johnson (1,082 yards, 12 TD) and LeGarrette Blount (928 yards, 16 TD) leading the nation's fourth-ranked rushing attack. The Ducks finished with an average of 41.9 points per game, which was seventh in the nation. The Ducks' main weakness is its passing defense, which ranked 108th in the nation.
Oklahoma State is seeking to tie a school record with 10 wins on the season, as head coach Mike Gundy returns to a special place from his past. In the Cowboys' only other Holiday Bowl appearance, Gundy completied 20 of 24 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns in OSU's 62-14 victory over Wyoming in 1988. The Cowboys come into the bowl ranked seventh nationally in total yards, seventh in rushing offense, and eighth in scoring offense. The trio of quarterback Zac Robinson, tailback Kendall Hunter, and wide receiver Dez Bryant has made the Cowboys' spread offense very dangerous. OSU had trouble putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks (13 sacks on the season), which is one reason they rank 110th nationally against the pass.
The Holiday Bowl should be an offensive shootout, and defense will probably decide the victor. Both teams rely on rushing attacks, so the key could be stopping the run. Oklahoma State opened as a 3.5-point favorite at 5Dimes, and the line saw some movement to OSU -4 early. Since then, we have seen movement in the opposite direction, despite the Cowboys receiving 60% of spread bets and 73% of parlay bets. This caused a few Smart Money plays to be triggered, including at 5Dimes (83-66, +8.86) and The Pig (127-111, +3.30). We'll follow the sharps and take the Ducks getting a field goal.
Oregon +3
Pointwise
POINTWISE 1* (14-15).......NEVADA
POINTWISE 2* (5-12) .. OREGON
NEVADA (7-5) vs MARYLAND (7-5)
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Nevada ....... 39.8 . 38- 32 .. 25-19 .. 291- 75 .. 219- 321 .. + 1 . Nevada
Maryland .... 43.7 . 20- 21 .. 18-20 .. 135-149 .. 207- 206 .. - 8 . by 4.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly what the Terrapins of Maryland were figuring, when, with 2 weeks
remaining in the regular season, they had the ACC Atlantic in their hands,
after a bruising 17-15 win over NoCarolina, in which they enjoyed a 195-75 RY
edge. But that was followed by a 37-3 wipeout loss (32½ pt ATS setback) to
FloridaSt, & a 28-21 loss to BC, in which they were outrushed, 175 to minus 6.
(2nd time this year that Maryland registered negative RYs). Inconsistency is
the byword of this year's Terp squad, as we've been reporting all season. As
a matter of fact, thru their first 7 lined games, the dog stood at 6-1 ATS, by an
astounding 144½ pts, covering by such figures as 24½, 32, 14, 44, & 28 pts.
Simply amazing. Things leveled off a bit, down the stretch, but you get the
drift. Offensively, Scott is their main cheese, overland (959 yds), but 320 PYpg. No, Nevada
didn't get this far via its defense (91st overall), but rather an offense which has
topped 40 pts seven times this year, ranking 5th in total "O", as well as 2nd in
rushing "O". Led by QB Kaepernick, who has not only thrown for 2,479 yds &
19 TDs (only 5 INTs), but who has rushed for 1,115 yds (7.3 ypr) & 16 TDs, the
'Pack is formidable, indeed. Throw in RB's Taua's 1,420 yds (6.7 ypr) & 14
TDs, & you have an offensive power. Check losing to perfect Boise by a mere
41-34 score, while holding the Broncos to 70 RYs. And note allowing just 2.6
ypr (#3 run "D"). Terps' downtick finish hardly bodes well in this atmosphere.
PROPHECY: NEVADA 38 - Maryland 27 RATING: 1
RICE (9-3) vs WESTERN MICHIGAN (9-3)
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rice ............ 38.2 . 42- 35 .. 26-24 .. 144-193 .. 328- 274 .. +13 . Rice
West Mich .. 36.5 . 30- 24 .. 22-19 .. 122-141 .. 301- 249 .. - 3 . by 8.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
Let it fly! Check it out. The opposing QBs in this contest have thrown for a
combined 7,339 yds & 75 TDs. The Owls of Rice return to the bowl scene for
the 2nd time in the past 3 years, with their 41-17 embarrassing loss to Troy in
the '06 New Orleans, marking Rice's first appearance in the holiday season
since the 1961 Bluebonnet. And as most fans are aware, the Owls are a
part of bowl lore, with the '53 Dicky Maegle Cotton Bowl incident legendary.
Anyway, in that wipeout loss to Troy, QB Armstrong, who replaced Clement
(shoulder) threw no less than 5 INTs, & that was that, a 24-pt loss, despite a
mere 26-yd deficit. You know that has been stickinging in the Owls' craw for
the last 2 years. This season, if its game with Texas is eliminated, Rice scored
at a 44.5 ppg clip, & that includes a 44.2 ppg average in the Owls' 6-game run
to finish the season, covering all but 1, missing by 2 pts. In his last 8 games,
Clement has thrown for 32 TDs, finishing at 41/7 for the season, along with
3,814 yds (66.4½). And together with WR Dillard (19 TD catches this year),
they've combined for the most TDs than any duo in NCAA history. But what
about the firepower of the Broncos of Western Michigan? Well, QB Tim Hiller
has thrown for 3,527 yds (66.7%), with 34 TDs, & only 8 picks, leading WM to
just is 4th post-season appearance. They made it to the International, in '06,
when they staged a brilliant comeback, erasing a 24-0 deficit in the 2nd, only
to lose, 27-24, in the final 6:11 (4-pt cover). But that Bronco team ranked 11th
in the nation, defensively, & entered with a +11 TO edge, quite the opposite
from the above stats. Plenty of fireworks are assured, so we lay the FG spot.
PROPHECY: RICE 41 - Western Michigan 31 RATING: 5
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-3) vs OREGON (9-3)
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Okla St ........ 49.9 . 42- 27 .. 25-23 .. 256-124 .. 233- 269 .. + 5 . Oregon
Oregon ....... 45.0 . 42- 28 .. 23-21 .. 278-119 .. 200- 264 .. + 5 . by 5.0 Pts
ANALYSIS
Look no further than the above stats to see that a classic could easily be the
result of this meeting. The similarities are there for all to see, including the
average score, where the Cowboys of Oklahoma State hold a 42-27 ppg edge,
while the Ducks of Oregon have a 42-28 ppg advantage. The 'Pokes rank
7th, offensively, with the Ducks 8th. Oregon ranks 4th in the nation in rushing,
while OkieSt ranks 7th. Defensively, neither bar is set high, with OU ranking
81st & 109th in total & passing, while OSU ranks 87th & 111th, respectively.
And both are decent in containing the run: Oregon is 24th; OklaSt is 27th. If
there is to be a discernible edge, it must be in the TO category, right? Hardly.
Check an exact same +5 in that all-important column. However, in Average
Opponent Power Rating, the Cowboys have been tested by slightly better
foes. The 'Pokes had covered 9 straight, rising to the 8th spot in the polls,
with their lone SU loss coming at Texas, by just 28-24. But they were routed
at TexasTech, 56-20 (32½ ATS loss), & despite a 20-pt loss to Oklahoma, in
their finale, still rank 13th or 14th in the polls. QB Robinson (2,735 yds, 24/8),
RB Hunter (1,518 yds, 6.7 ypr), & WR Bryant (1,313 yds, 18 TDs), are nearly
unstoppable, at times. Try 34 & 49 pts in their '06 & '07 bowl wins. Duck QB
Masoli can't compare to Robinson, with just 1,486 yds, 12/4), but check 572
yds & 5 TD passes in OU's 55-45 & 65-38 wins over bowl bound Arizona &
OregonSt, to wind up the season (30-pt cover vs OSU). Last year, the Ducks
(+5½) rolled to a 56-21 win over SoFlorida, with a 533-334 yd edge. Holiday
Bowls are normally barnburners, so why not another? We'll grab the FG spot.
PROPHECY: OREGON 40 - Oklahoma State 34 RATING: 2
THE GOLD SHEET
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
NEVADA (7-5) vs. MARYLAND (7-5)
Tuesday, December 30 Night at Houston, TX (Damaged Dome; Grass Field)
Nevada 34 - Maryland 27—Here’s hoping they don’t end up canceling this
one due to lack of interest! Early ticket sales at the respective schools were
going about as well as Rod Blagojevich souvenirs in Chicago, with both Nevada
and Maryland failing to sell more than 100 ducats between them as of last week.
But that hardly means the Wolf Pack and Terps won’t put on a good show in Boise.
Indeed, there are plenty of intriguing X-factors to consider in this battle, not
the least of which is Maryland’s bipolar performance pattern that saw Terps lay
an inordinate amount of eggs in ‘08 (one-sided losses vs. Middle Tennessee,
Virginia, and Florida State) interspersed with several quality efforts. We also
have a few more reservations about the Terps’ offensive capabilities than we do
Nevada’s. Keep in kind that UM was wobbling down the stretch, losing 3 of its
last 4 when the “O,” unable to spring slashing RB Da’Rel Scott, was held to
minus rush yardage in 2 of its last 4 outings. And if there were two things the
Nevada “D’ was able to do effectively this season, it was to slow enemy runners
(Pack 3rd nationally in rush “D”) and to put pressure on opposing QBs, with
active DE Basped & LB Moch combining for 19 1/2 sacks between them, which
could be a problem for Maryland QB Chris Turner, sacked 11 times in the last
2 games. Matchups look a little better for potent (37 ppg) Wolf Pack “Pistol”
and dual-threat QB Kaepernick (1115 YR & 2479 YP), especially since Terp “D”
in adjustment mode following recent departure of d.c. Chris Cosh to Kansas
State (LB coach Al Seamonson interim d.c. for bowl). And no matter who
shows up to watch, slight edge to Nevada squad playing in familiar WAC
territory. (DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
*RICE 47 - Western Michigan 35—The case for backing Rice begins with
irrepressible QB Chase Clement. The stellar senior has accounted for 114 TDs
over the last three seasons, including 41 through the air and another 14 on the
ground so far this year. And not many other players in the country are as
consistently productive as Clement, who’s had at least 325 yards of total
offense in 17 of the Owls’ last 19 games!
Still, red-hot Rice has been able to rip off six straight victories since mid-
October mostly because Clement’s offensive arsenal now runs deeper than
“just” A-A sr. WR Jarrett Dillard (59 career TDC, including nation’s-best 19 in
2008). Pro scouts are salivating over the versatility & athleticism of 6-4, 245
soph TE/RB James Casey (18 TDs & 104 catches this year), who had 3 TD
grabs, ran for a score, and also threw a TDP during win over cross-city rival
Houston in the reg.-season finale! Plus, jr. RB C.J. Ugokwe blossomed over
the second half of the campaign, barreling for 556 YR on 5.4 ypc during the last
6 games. Sure, Western Michigan is capable of trading points for a while
behind confident jr. QB Tim Hiller (74 career TDP). But Clement & Co. should
eventually pull away in front of a friendly hometown crowd.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
HOLIDAY BOWL
OREGON (9-3) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (9-3)
Tuesday, December 30 Night at San Diego, CA (Grass Field)
*Oklahoma State 45 - Oregon 36—We admit to having a hard time finding
that many quantifiable edges in this matchup, let alone any advantage so
substantial that it would lead us to make a strong recommendation on either
side. True, Oregon had more momentum down the stretch, winning 5 of its last
6 regular-season games. But we have to wonder how the mediocre Duck
defense might have fared against the likes of top-ranked Oklahoma, Texas &
Texas Tech, the only three teams to topple Oklahoma State. “Technicals”
aren’t much help either, because, while Oregon is a righteous 15-8 as a dog
since 2003, OSU has covered 8 of its last 9 as chalk.
Fundamentally, the Duck offense possesses almost unparalleled big-play
ability on the ground, as blazing RBs Jeremiah Johnson & LeGarrette Blount
have combined for 2010 YR & 28 TDs on 7 ypc. Still, the Cowboys’ rushing
attack isn’t far behind, with RBs Kendall Hunter & Keith Toston motoring for
2176 yards & 23 TDs at a robust 6.8 ypc clip. And versatile OSU jr. QB Zac
Robinson (24 TDP vs. only 8 ints., 508 YR) definitely has the two best receivers
on the field in NFL-caliber sr. TE Brandon Pettigrew & acrobatic star soph WR
Dez Bryant (18 TDC!). Plus, taking into account the strength of the offenses
each of these bullet-riddled defenses has faced, OSU seems more likely to get
a few stops in this anticipated shootout.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
UN is making its 4th consec bowl appearance. The Wolf Pack is 3-5 SU & 1-3 ATS in bowl gms (1-4 SU
& 1-2 ATS under HC Ault). UN is 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS vs BCS tms in Ault’s latest stint as HC here. The Wolf
Pack’s only previous meeting vs an ACC school was against Miami here in ‘05 in the MPC Computers Bowl
in a game UN lost 21-20 (+3’). These two have not faced a common opp TY. This will be MD’s 6th bowl in 8
yrs but it’s their 1st trip to Idaho. When MD was at its best TY, they could beat anyone, but there were just as
many gms where they didn’t appear to be mentally ready to play & that explains the mediocre final record &
the lack of enthusiasm among the bowls as they fell far down the ACC’s pecking order. The Terps have won
3 of their L/4 bowl gms (Friedgen 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls). LY the Terps faced Oreg St in the Emerald Bowl &
were outFD’d 24-11 & outgained 383-224, losing 21-14 (+5). MD has faced 8 bowl caliber tms & went 5-3
SU & 4-4 ATS. UN has faced 7 bowl eligible tms and went 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. The Terps are 2-4 SU & 1-5
ATS on art turf the L/3Y while UN plays their home gms on the fake stuff. MD has 30 Sr’s incl 10 Sr starters
and 18 upperclassmen starters. UN has 15 Sr’s incl 7 starters with 11 total upperclassmen starters. This is
only MD’s 2nd gm vs a WAC foe (‘90 Independence Bowl vs LT 34-34, -1).
MD stepped it up vs top competition going 4-1 vs the Top 25 (incl 4 straight) but was just 3-4 vs other opp.
In the reg ssn finale QB Turner threw for 360 yds but it wasn’t enough as MD lost to #20 BC which snapped
a 6 gm win streak vs ranked foes. RB Scott is the #2 rusher in the ACC & was named 1st Tm ACC. WR
Heyward-Bey missed the BC gm with an inj’d calf and is ? here. The OL avg 6’4” 313 & is led by 3 Sr’s, 1st
Tm ACC C Williams & HM ACC’s OT Burley & OG Thomas, and is avg 4.1 ypc rush but has given up 26 sks
(T-#76 NCAA). MD has our #50 off & #59 D. The DL avg 6’3” 288, all’g 3.9 ypg rush. The DL is anchored by
HM ACC DT Navarre. Soph LB Wujciak has been impressive in his 1st ssn (inj’d LY) & is #2 in the ACC in tkls.
The secondary is w/o its leader, Sr Barnes (ssn ending shldr inj 10/18) and they finished just #88 in pass eff
D allowing 206 ypg (62%) with a 17-8 ratio. There will be some uncertainty on the D as DC Cosh left to be the
DC & asst HC at K-St. OLB coach Al Seamonson was named the interim DC. The Terps have our #45 ST’s.
P Baltz ranks 1st in the ACC in net & avg. KR Smith set the MD single-ssn rec’d for KR yds, breaking Josh
Wilson’s mark of 847 (‘06). MD is #7 in NCAA in PR def all’g 4.1 ypr but is all’g a woeful 22.5 ypr on KR.
When Ault devised the “Pistol” scheme, it was designed to generate a stronger run gm out of a passing
set. While it was effective in its initial stages, it has rapidly developed & evolved over the L/3Y to become one
of the nation’s most effective & explosive offensive formations. TY’s version is avg an NCAA best 6.2 ypc &
features 4 1st Tm WAC selections in QB Kaepernick (WAC POY), RB Taua, WR Mitchell & C Green. They each
help power the #2 rush off (291 ypg), #5 overall off (511 ypg) & #13 scoring off (39.4) in the NCAA behind
a rugged OL avg 6’4” 290. Ault uses phrases like “Trigger Man” & “Nevada Back” to describe the type of QB
& RB needed to fit his scheme best & he’s got one of each. Both dual threat QB Kaepernick & the versatile
Taua inherited their positions due to inj’s & haven’t looked back since. Kaepernick, just the 5th player in NCAA
history to rush for 1,000 yds & pass for 2,000 yds, is the epitome of the signal caller needed to run UN’s Pistol
effectively with his read option ability, while Taua (#9 in NCAA) is the top ground threat. When the opposition
keys in on the Wolf Pack’s run gm, UN can turn to 1st Tm WAC WR Mitchell for his ability to stretch the field
as he is #2 in the WAC in rec ypg. UN’s DL avg 6’3” 265 & is highlighted by DE’s Basped & Moch who have
combined for 19.5 sks TY. The unit has been stout vs the run all’g just 75 ypg (#3 in the NCAA) & only 2.6
ypc. The Wolf Pack improved its run D from a yr ago and is markedly better as they shaved off 99 ypg from LY
(174 ypg). The Wolf Pack’s Achillies’ heel TY has been its pass D which is all’g 321 ypg (#119 in the NCAA).
UN’s ST unit has excelled behind 1st Tm WAC PK Jaekle & 2nd Tm WAC P Langley. Jaekle leads the WAC
in scoring & Langley is #11 in the NCAA in punt avg but will miss the bowl (inj).
Both teams are coming off bowl losses with Nevada getting shutout (tms 2-2 ATS if shutout in LY’s
bowl). Maryland has had an up-and-down season playing to the level of its competition as there were 6
upsets in their games TY. LY the Terps took on the NCAA’s #1 rush D (OSU) in the bowl and were held
to 19 yds (0.8). On paper they’ll face tough D front but that’s misleading as the Pack has faced a sked
loaded with pass happy teams and allowed 185 rush yds to LT in the finale. Being a dog to a WAC team
should get the Terps’ attention as they end their schizophrenic season on an up note.
FORECAST: MARYLAND BY 6
RATING: 2* MARYLAND
TEXAS BOWL
First meeting. The gm is technically at a neutral site, but Rice is playing in its hometown. Reliant
Stadium is a grass surface, while both tms play HG’s on turf. Rice has played just 5 gms on grass the
L/3Y going 1-4 SU (3-2 ATS), while WM is 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) in the same time frame. WM won 9 gms
TY for the 1st time S/’00 and their 3 losses were to tms with a comb 28-5 record. They beat Illinois
23-17 (+7’) making it 3 str yrs they have upset a BCS school. The Broncos did finish the year with
2 str ATS losses incl a disappointing 45-22 loss at #15 Ball St (+10’) and are 2-2 as a dog on the
yr. WM is making their 4th bowl appearance (2nd in L/3Y) and is 0-1 SU (1-0 ATS) under HC Cubit,
losing the ‘06 International Bowl to Cincy (27-24, +7). They played 5 bowl eligible tms and went 2-3
(1-4 ATS) being outscored 37-27 and outgained 444-399. Rice is making its 2nd bowl appearance in
the L/3Y after not playing in a bowl for 45 yrs. In ‘06, the Owls squared off against SBC Co-Champ
Troy in the New Orleans Bowl and were routed 41-17 (-5). HC Bailiff, CUSA’s Coach of the Yr, will be
coaching in his 1st bowl. Rice enters on a 6 gm SU win streak (5-1 ATS) and has won 9 gms for the
1st time S/’49. They are 5-1 ATS as a fav TY (avg cover by 17). Rice has played 6 bowl caliber tms
TY and went 3-3 SU/ATS, being outscored 45-32 and outgained 542-464. These numbers are slightly
misleading as one of the losses was at #3 Texas (52-10, +29) where they were outgained 600-318.
Both tms start 14 upperclassmen, with each tm having 7 Sr’s in the starting lineup.
The Broncos have our #47 off avg 30 ppg and 423 ypg. QB Hiller led the MAC in pass yds and was
2nd in pass eff and ttl off (294 ypg). He tied former QB Tim Lester (‘99) for WM’s single ssn rec’d for TD
passes. RB West needs just 30 yds to become the Broncos’ 8th 1,000 yd rusher S/’97. West had five
100+ yd gms TY incl a ssn high 175 vs the MAC’s #1 D (NI). WR Simmons tied NFL star Greg Jennings
for the Broncos’ single ssn rec’d with 98 rec. Simmons had five 100+ yd gms TY incl a ssn best 174 yds
vs Illinois. TE Branden Ledbetter missed the L/2 gms with inj, but is exp to return here. The Broncos
OL is led by LT Phillip Swanson (1st Tm MAC) and avg 6’4” 300. Despite not having a Sr in the starting
lineup, they have paved the way for 4.3 ypc while all’g just 14 sks (2.8%). The Broncos have our #72 D
all’g 24 ppg and 390 ypg. The DL, which is led by DE Zach Davidson, avg 6’3” 260 and is all’g 3.8 ypc
and has 17.5 of the tm’s 22 sks. The LB unit is led by WLB Austin Prichard and MLB Boston McCornell.
The WM secondary is all’g 249 ypg passing (56.2%) with a 17-13 ratio, led by FS Louis Delmas, who
is the first Bronco to reach 100 tkls in a ssn S/’03. The ST’s unit (#54) is all’g 18.8 on KR’s and 14.8 on
PR’s but does have 2 blk’d K. While the Broncos are avg 22.4 ypr on KR, they avg just 7.2 ypr on PR.
Rice’s dynamic off (#17) is avg 42 ppg led by CUSA MVP QB Clement and WR Dillard who hold
the NCAA rec’d for a pass-catch duo with 50 TD passes. Clement had seven 300+ gms TY, incl 4 str
to end the reg ssn. Dillard is #1 in the NCAA with 19 TD catches and is the NCAA leader in career TD
rec (59). WR James Casey has emerged as a versatile playmaker who lines up at multiple positions
(WR, RB, TE, QB) and has caught, ran and thrown for a TD in the same gm 2x this ssn. Casey set a
CUSA record by hauling in 104 passes. RB Ugokwe leads the rush attack and has 556 yds the L/6
gms (93 ypg, 5.4). The OL avg’s just 6’3” 283 paving the way for 4.2 ypc while all’g 26 sks (5.5%).Rice
has struggled with its 4-2-5 def and has our #114 unit. They are all’g 35 ppg but have fared better as
of late all’g 29 ppg the L/5. The DL avg’s 6’4” 267 and is all’g 193 ypg (5.2) rush and has generated
12 of the tm’s 22 sks. Rice is #81 in our pass eff rankings all’g 274 ypg (58%) with a 32-14 ratio. FS
Andrew Sendejo directs the secondary and leads the tm in tkls. The D did receive an emotional boost
as Sr LB Brian Raines ret’d for the final reg ssn gm just 6 wks after breaking his forearm and being
told his Rice career was probably over. The Owls have our #89 ST’s, but have blk’d 4 kicks.
Stats are great but take a look at the checklist. While Rice gets the publicity for a dynamic offense,
Western has the talent to stay with them. The difference is on the defensive side as the Broncos have
a decisive edge. There are some under the radar NFL caliber players on the WM side which might
surprise you tonight. HC Cubit will have his team ready as they have traveled to Nebraska, Missouri,
WV, Florida St and have recorded upsets of Illinois, Iowa and Virginia all in the past 3 seasons.
FORECAST: W MICHIGAN (+) BY 3
RATING: 3* W MICHIGAN
HOLIDAY BOWL
HC Gundy has led his Cowboy squad to bowl appearances in 3 of his 4 yrs at the helm (2-0 SU/ATS)
& will now attempt to guide the prog to just their 4th 10 win ssn all-time. This is the 1st meeting between
these schools & the Cowboys 2nd Holiday Bowl appearance (62-14, -2’, thrashing of Wyoming in ‘88).
The Ducks journey to the Holiday Bowl for the 3rd time (1-1 SU & ATS) & make a bowl appearance for
the 11th time in the L12Y. HC Bellotti is 5-6 SU (6-5 ATS) in his bowl trips with the Ducks incl a dominating
56-21 (+6) win in the Sun Bowl LY vs USF. Both tms won & covered vs helpless Wash St TY with
OSU posting a 39-13 win (367-196 edge) & UO rolling to a 63-14 victory (507-271 edge). OSU is 3-3
SU & 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY being outgained by a 508-491 clip while the Ducks went 2-3 SU & ATS
also being outgained (472-438). OSU was 7-1 ATS as a fav TY while UO was 1-2 SU/ATS as a dog. The
Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on grass while OSU has struggled recently going 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS L3Y.
Cowboys have 8 Sr starters among 18 upperclassmen while UO has 11 Sr’s (16 upperclassmen).
For the 2nd consec ssn UO was forced to use 4 diff QB’s on the yr due to a rash of inj’s. QB Roper
began the ssn as the starter but was inj’d making way for JUCO & late signee Masoli to lead for the
remainder of the ssn. Masoli struggled in the pass gm early on as he had a run first attitude but he
quickly matured & had huge performances in their L/2 gms of the reg ssn. The Ducks were led by the
dynamic duo of RB’s Johnson & Blount who comb for 2,000+ yds on the ssn & accompanied by Masoli,
set the single-ssn schl rush rec’d for the 2nd consec yr surpassing ‘07’s mark of 3,272 yds with an even
stronger 3,334 yds TY. WR Scott & TE Dickson led their respective positions in rec as UO finished with
our #6 off. The OL avg 6’5” 307 & is led by C Unger & LT Tupou who helped pave the way for 278 ypg
(6.1) & 42 rushing TD (#2 NCAA). They also all’d a solid 18 sks (5.3%). The Duck D has our #61 ranking.
Led by DE’s Reed & Tukuafu, the DL avg 6’4” 278 & all’d 119 ypg (3.1) with 26 of the tm’s 38 sks (68%).
The LB unit is the forgotten bunch of this stellar D but has just 1 Sr starter making this a very underrated
& young group. UO’s secondary features an abundance of playmakers (all 4 starters earned all-conf
recognition) led by ROV Chung but they finished a disappointing #46 in pass eff D all’g 264 ypg (58%)
with a 24-14 ratio as their off put them ahead in many games forcing opp’s to pass often in an attempt
to catch up. The ST ranks #40 featuring strong performances from members of the ret gm.
OSU’s 42 ppg & 489 ypg (#7 NCAA) are the most by a Cowboy squad S/’88 (when Gundy played
QB here). OSU’s 3 losses TY were vs tms ranked #1, #2 & #3. OSU ret’d 7 starters from LY but had to
replace its top RB & WR. QB Robinson started his 1st full ssn under center with no distractions & posted
the 3rd highest single ssn mark in schl hist in ttl yds. OSU has avg 230+ ypg both rushing & passing
the L2Y. 1st Tm B12/Doak Walker semi-finalist Hunter (#6 in NCAA in rushing) posted nine 100+ yd
performances while getting to the EZ at least twice in 5 gms (42%). AA/1st Tm B12/Bilentnikoff finalist
WR Bryant broke OSU’s single ssn TD rec rec’d (70+ yds in 10 gms). Mackey finalist TE Pettigrew (6’5”
260) was slowed by inj earlier in the yr but will be 100% & provides another weapon downfield not only
as a pass catcher but also as a devastating blk’r. The OL avg 6’5” 293 (2 Sr starters) paving the way for
the #7 rush off at 256 ypg (5.6) all’g just 13 sks (4.7%). They are led by 1st Tm B12 OT Okung (1st time
in OSU history 3 players on 1st Tm). The def ret’d 6 starters from a unit that gave up 443 ypg (worst in 20
yrs), but TY all’d 27 ppg & just 392 ypg (#43). DL avg 6’3” 281 (2 Sr) all’g 124 ypg (4.0) while accounting
for 69% (9) of the team’s scant 13 sks. LB Sexton (2nd Tm B12) teamed with Lavine & Lemon to make
up the B12’s most underrated LB corp. OSU is ranked #65 in our pass eff def allowing 269 ypg (63%)
with a 27-11 ratio. The ST units (#12) are led by 1st Tm B12 KR/PR & B12 ST POY Bryant & 2nd Tm
B12/Ray Guy winner Fodge (#2 in NCAA in net). DB Cox has 4 KR TD (best in OSU history).
A pair of 9-3 teams matchup in what historically is always an exciting bowl. Each team has excellent
rush attacks although OSU does rate the edge in the passing game with the Robinson/Bryant duo. OSU
has been tested this year as their 3 losses were to Top 3 foes while Oregon only has 2 wins vs bowl
teams. One big matchup will be the Oregon K as he had 26 TBs which negates the OSU return game
led by Cox’s 30.1 KR avg. This could be another high scoring shoot-out as Oregon and OSU’s offenses
have topped 54 pts a combined 10 times this season.
FORECAST: OKLAHOMA STATE BY 4
RATING: No Play
MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (9-5) ... OREGON
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK:
PAC 10 Bowl Dogs are 18-1 ATS against opponents who scored 34 or more points in their last game.OREGON
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Bronco Stadium • Boise, ID
Nevada over Maryland by 6
Someone, somewhere, should really look into changing the name of this
Bowl. There’s simply nothing at all humanitarian in asking two teams to
travel to icy Idaho in late December and beat each other senseless on the
frozen smurf turf in front of a scattering of fans (unless, of course, all losing
bets are held unaccountable – now that would be humanitarian). However,
we can see a great deal more supporters making the trek from Reno to
Boise than those coming all the way from College Park. The Terps will show
up with some strong ATS stats under their shells: ACC Bowl dogs of 7 or
less points are 8-1 ATS off a loss of 7 or more points and ACC Bowl dogs are
also 9-2 ATS overall the last 4 years. Unfortunately for coach Ralph Friedgen
and his tortoises, the stat sheet goes downhill from there. Freidgen is a
disastrous 10-31 SU and 9-32 ATS in games where his team is outrushed and
that occurrence is almost a given in this matchup. Led by dual-threat QB
Colin Kaepernick, Nevada owns the nation’s #2 ranked rush offense and the
Wolf Pack outgained 11 of their 12 opponents on the ground this year. Still,
despite gaining over 500 total yards on offense in 8 games this year and
reaching their 4th straight Bowl game, the Reno wolves barely show up as
a blip on the national radar. That’s fi ne with us, especially when the higherprofi
le Terps have slipped to a miserable 6-20 mark ‘In The Stats’ when
facing fellow Bowlers over the past 3 seasons. Meanwhile, WAC Bowlers
are 10-5-1 ATS off a SU win versus a foe off a SU loss (8-2 ATS as a dog
or favorite of less than 3 points) and Nevada head coach Chris Ault owns
a profi table 9-3 ATS record when given extra prep time. Only Maryland’s
recent 3-1 SUATS success in its last 4 Bowl games is keeping this number in
a reasonable range but that won’t deter us from backing a pack of hungry
wolves on a cold northwest night.
TEXAS BOWL
Reliant Stadium • Houston, TX
W Michigan over Rice by 3
Those of you who think Rice isn’t a worthy Lone Star representative to appear
in the Texas Bowl, think again. David Bailiff’s Owls completed a stunning
turnaround from 07’s dreadful 3-9 effort in his fi rst year at the helm to a
9-3 mark this season, with the defeats coming against Vanderbilt, Texas
and C-USA West champion Tulsa. They enter today’s showdown with MAC
West runner-up Central Michigan riding a 6-game win streak while laying
points for the 7th time in 2008. The reason for Rice’s success lies mainly with
the QB-WR tandem of Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard. The two have
hooked up for an NCAA record 50 career touchdowns and Clement ranks #3
nationally in total offense. Rice will need another high-scoring performance
by its offense here: the Owls fi nished dead last in conference pass defense
(274 YPG) and must face WMU’s outstanding QB Tim Hiller, a junior that’s
thrown 34 TD passes this season against only 8 interceptions. Hiller also
has his go-to guy in WR James Casey, who fi nished 2nd in the nation with
101 receptions. The Broncos sport an identical 9-3 record and are one of
3 ‘mission teams’ (program that failed to qualify for a Bowl the previous
year after making at least 2 consecutive appearances in postseason play)
that battled back to earn a Bowl invitation in 2008. Mission teams with a
win percentage of .700 or higher are 11-4-1 ATS in Bowl games, numbers
that go hand-in-hand with Rice’s 3-9-1 ATS mark recently as non-conference
chalk. The lean to WMU get even stronger when we note that Rice owns
an awful 10-27-1 ATS log as favorites when they allow 21 or more points
(2-12 ATS off a SUATS win) – and the Broncos scored 21 or more in all but
one game this year. Western also travels well, winning 7 of its last 11 games
SU away from Kalamazoo, and will get to face the worst defense of all ’09
Bowl teams today. Over-Under players should also be on alert since these
two teams averaged a combined 71 points and 895 yards of total offense
per game this season. The bottom line is we simply can’t lay the wood with
a defense that’s liable to get pounded into Rice pudding.
HOLIDAY BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium • San Diego, CA
5* BEST BET
Oregon over Oklahoma St by 14
Another potentially high-scoring matchup fi nds both teams’ coaching
staffs in a state of fl ux. Last week Oklahoma State DC Tim Beckman
accepted the top slot at Toledo and launched his way straight out of
Stillwater to start recruiting for the Rockets, leaving head coach Mike
Gundy and his defensive assistants with the task of preparing a game
plan. Oregon faced a similar situation when OC Chip Kelly was poised
to interview for the Syracuse job but the Ducks kept him in Eugene
by naming Kelly ‘coach in waiting’ behind current head man Mike
Bellotti. The 12th ranked Cowboys will be looking to lasso their fi rst
10-win season since 1988 behind the pitch-and-catch combo of QB Zac
Robinson and WR Dez Bryant but the Pokes stumbled down the stretch,
losing 2 of their closing 3 games. The #15 Ducks fl y into San Diego on a
3-game winning streak, including an impressive 65-38 road shellacking
of Oregon State that denied the Beavers a trip to the Rose Bowl. In fact,
the deeper we dig into the ATS archives, the better we like the webfeet.
Our database informs us that Bowlers who scored 50 or more points in
their last game are 7-1 SU and ATS since 1990 versus opponents that
allowed 40 or more points in their last game. The Ducks average over
30 PPG on the highway under Bellotti and pre-New Year’s day dogs
who score 27 or more points are an astonishing 86% proposition, going
110-18 ATS! Okie State plays right into that scenario with a sad 6-17 ATS
mark as chalk when allowing over 28 PPG, including 1-18 ATS against
.600 or greater foes like Oregon. Bellotti, who has roamed the sidelines
at Autzen Stadium for 14 seasons, has compiled an 18-8 ATS record
when playing with rest (11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS versus greater than .666
opposition) and led his Ducks to a 56-21 rout of South Florida as 6-
point dogs in last year’s Sun Bowl. Today he’ll be counting on JUCO
transfer QB Jeremiah Masoli and running backs Jeremiah Johnson and
LeGarrette Blount to control the ball and keep the Cowboys’ equally
explosive offense off the fi eld. With PAC 10 Bowl dogs cashing in 16 of
their last 20 games and Oregon fi nding itself as the featured team in
this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2, so will we
THE SPORTS MEMO
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Maryland vs. Nevada -1 O/U 58
Tuesday, December 30, 4:30 pm ET ESPN - Boise, Idaho
Recommendation: Over
Late in the season Maryland was positioned to win their ACC division in a crazy conference race. However they folded under the pressure and dropped three of their final four games. Despite the poor finish to the season, the Terrapins had hoped for a more enticing bowl invitation from the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Their hopes were dashed when the committee instead chose Florida State as West Virginia’s opponent. This headline explains the disappointment of all parties involved, “The Maryland football program wanted to play in a more prominent bowl game. The Humanitarian Bowl wanted a team with more national sizzle. Neither got its wish.” The Terrapins really struggled on the defensive side all season long. Although they lost half of their starters from their 2007 unit, the Maryland defense was projected as a solid if not unspectacular unit. But in a recurrent theme the defense disappointed on the field, finishing in the bottom quarter of the ACC in total yards allowed, pass defense and rush defense. Their inability to stop the run is of particular concern in this match-up as Nevada is one of the strongest ruhsing teams in the nation. The Wolfpack averaged over 290 yards on the ground per game at a clip of 6.5 yards per rush according to our Accu-stats. This group overcame the loss of their heart-and-soul leader when Luke Lippincott was lost for the season after just 17 carries. His replacement Vai Taua, has been phenomenal. After carrying the ball just 13 times last season the sophomore running back took full advantage of his opportunity this year racking up 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns on 214 touches. The Nevada “pistol offense” is directed by one of the nation’s top offensive players, the dynamic dual threat quarterback, Colin Kapernick. On the season, Kapernick ran for over 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns while throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 19 scores. But as good as the offense has been, the defense has been as bad. The Wolfpack will hang their hats on what amounts to FBS football’s third best rush defense but those numbers are pretty easily discounted by way of their pass defense which ranks dead last. Simply put, opponents don’t have to run the ball when they can pass for over 320 yards per game. Fundamentally speaking it will be a poor matchup here against Maryland who ranked second in the ACC in pass offense. Chris Turner may have been sloppy against some quality BCS defenses but he and star receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey should have a field day in Boise. This is a matchup where the two teams’ offensive strengths are matched up favorably against each team’s biggest defensive weakness. Those advantages should translate into a high scoring affair and with a total that hasn’t yet cracked the 60-point plateau we feel extremely confident in playing this one up and over.
TEXAS BOWL
Western Michigan vs. Rice -3 O/U 72.5
Thursday, December 30, 8 pm ET NFL Network - Houston
Recommendation: Rice
Rice was picked by most to finish in the bottom half of its six-team division. Yet the Owls surprised posting a 9-3 mark for the season while winning its last six games. Along the way they earned victories over solid bowl-bound teams; Houston, Southern Miss and Memphis. With just one winning season in its last six season, the Owls will be plenty excited about this bowl opportunity. Their opponent, Western Michigan and also ended the year with a 9-3 mark and delivered wins against Illinois and MAC conference bowl-bound teams; Northern Illinois and Buffalo. Their losses came against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball State -- all of which are bowl teams. As we see it, this should be a shootout as both offenses have been excellent this season. Teams and players from Conference-USA just don’t get much national attention unless they are in the hunt for an undefeated season. In fact, Rice may be the most unheralded top tier offensive team in the nation. The Owls gained 5,700 yards this season and topped 35 points scored in six straight games. They run the ball well at 5.23 yards per rush and throw it even better at 7.69 yards per pass. Like the team, Rice quarterback Chase Clement had a tremendous year without receiving much publicity. He is an excellent spread offense quarterback and has a bevy of solid receivers. Widouts Jarett Dillard and James Casey each posted over 1,200 yards while combining for 31 touchdowns. Only two players in the MAC posted equal numbers and one of them, Jamarko Simmons, plays for Western Michigan. Overall Western Michigan has not been as productive on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos rushed for 4.56 ypc and passed for 6.74 ypp, yet they still managed to score 22 or more points in 11 of its 12 games. They have much better defensive numbers than Rice as the Owls allow 5.99 ypc and 6.73 ypp. Still we expect defense to be an afterthought in this matchup. The Rice offense will move the ball and score plenty of points as no defense other than Texas has been able to slow down this group. When facing comparable speed and athleticism, Rice has had no trouble piling up the points and yards. The defensive edge for WMU is not going to be enough. Rice is plenty content to use its offense to just trade points and eventually outscore the opposition. It has worked well for the Owls this season as they covered eight of its nine straight up wins. Despite the spread and straight up success not one game was decided by less than five points. With the short price in this game we are essentially asking Rice to just win the game. With the benefit of playing it is hometown and this being the last chance for Clement and several other seniors to showcase their ability, we’ll call for the Rice Owls to earn its tenth win this season. Lay the points.
HOLIDAY BOWL
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon +3 O/U 76.5
Tuesday, December 30, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Diego
Recommendation: Oregon
For a significant portion of the season, Oklahoma State was on the cusp of being considered part of the Big XII elite. While they earned a big win over Missouri the Cowboys were unable to register a win against the “big three”. While they weren’t that far removed with a hard fought four-point loss to Texas, they were crushed by both Texas Tech and Oklahoma. In those games against the four above mentioned opponents OSU put up 28.3 points and 409.5 yards per game but they allowed 42 points and 536 yards per game. Oklahoma State is no question battle tested whereas Oregon was able to thrive with its funky offense in the mediocre PAC-10. Oregon’s offense may not feature the high-flying passing attack of those aforementioned teams but in terms of scoring output and yardage they are equal to the task. Still the Ducks fell short when asked to step up in class in conference. They were crushed by USC and failed to beat California in a rain-soaked game that should have favored their strong rushing attack. Fundamentally Oregon is the top rushing team in the country. The Ducks average 6.88 yards per rush and nearly a yard more per carry than an Oklahoma State team that averages an impressive 256 rushing yards per game. Defensively the edge also belongs to Oregon in stopping the run as the Ducks held opponents to just 3.87 yards per carry. OSU’s opponents netted 4.48 per attempt. Oklahoma State’s rush defense looks good on paper as they allowed just 124 yards per game. But opposing teams eschewed the run because success through the air was all but assumed as the Cowboys allowed 269 yards per game throw the air. Furthermore many opponents were forced to play from behind and abandon the run. The Ducks are fundamentally a good play as they enter here as an underdog that outplays the opposition in the running game on both sides of the ball. We also give Oregon the edge in terms of coaching and preparation. Oregon was forced to play four quarterbacks this season yet offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense continued to prosper. Coming out of two bye weeks this season, the Ducks put up 54 and 65 points respectively. Plus we must recall that last season when Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon went down late in the campaign the Ducks limped into the postseason on a three-game losing streak. Yet they showed up in the Sun Bowl and beat South Florida 56-21 as a 6-point underdog. This program will be prepared. While the offenses will be front and center both coaches have indicated that it will be the defense that makes the difference. If we rank these teams equal on offense, then the difference or advantage lies with the stop units. We expect the Oregon defense to earn the win as they force couple of turnovers or hold Oklahoma State to a couple of field goals instead of touchdowns. Take the points
Nelly’s Green Sheet
HUMANITARIAN BOWL 3:30 PM
Bronco Stadium – Boise, Idaho ESPN
Nevada (-1) Maryland (58)
Maryland closed the season with disappointing losses in three of the final
four games of the season to wind up with the less than ideal bowl bid in the
cold at Boise. The ACC has had mixed results in this game with S/U winners
in three of the past five years. Nevada own a dangerous offensive team that
posted huge rushing numbers on the season but the Wolfpack defense
allowed ten more points per game than Maryland through an easier
schedule. Nevada featured one of the worst pass defenses in the nation
allowing 321 yards per game and Maryland’s offense should have a big day if
motivated in this match-up. The numbers for Maryland slipped late in the
season but the Terrapins faced bowl teams with strong defenses in each of
the last six games of the season. Nevada lost by lopsided margins against
two Big 12 teams this season so the jump in competition could be
problematic. Although some logic might suggest that Nevada might be more
motivated to be in this bowl game the Wolfpack lost 23-0 in an uninspired
bowl effort last season and also lost in the ’06 bowl game against the ACC’s
Miami. Maryland has been a tough bowl team under Coach Friedgen and the
Terps should rise up for this game. MARYLAND 34-28
RATING 1: MARYLAND (+1)
RATING 2: ‘OVER 58’
TEXAS BOWL 7:00 PM
Reliant Stadium – Houston, Texas NFL
Rice (-3) Western Michigan (72)
Although this game is not technically a home game for Rice the Owls will
play very close to home in Houston and should have a decent following at
this game after a breakout 9-3 campaign. The Owls were crushed in their last
bowl appearance in 2006 and this will be the first ever bowl game as a head
coach for David Bailiff. Rice enters this game on a six -game win streak and
but the defense is allowing 466 yards per game and 35 points per game.
Rice beat three bowl teams this season but the Owls allowed 117 points in
the process. Western Michigan has the passing attack to match scores with
Rice, averaging 301 yards per game through the air while playing
significantly better defense. In 2006 the Broncos played a very competitive
bowl game against Cincinnati, losing by just three and the MAC fared
exceptionally well in non-conference games this season, going 28-16 ATS.
Despite the promising venue Rice may feel slighted to have not played for
the C-USA championship despite finishing 7-1 in conference play. The
defensive liabilities for the Owls will be significant and Western Michigan was
just a few plays away from a perfect conference season. Rice caught a lot of
breaks this season with one of the best turnover margins in the nation and it
could all catch up to the Owls in this game. Western Michigan will not be
intimidated in this venue and can deliver. WESTERN MICHIGAN 31-24
RATING 1: WESTERN MICHIGAN (+3)
RATING 2: ‘UNDER 72’
HOLIDAY BOWL 7:00 PM
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California ESPN
Oklahoma State (-3½) Oregon (77)
The Holiday Bowl had a long run of underdog wins until the past two years
when slight favorites delivered blowout wins. This game features two of the
highest scoring teams in the nation as Oklahoma State and Oregon both
averaged over 41 points per game in the regular season. Defense kept both
teams from taking the next step as both teams allowed over 380 yards per
game. Although both squads had solid passing numbers the bulk of the
yardage has come on the ground with two of the top ten rushing offenses in
the nation meeting in this game. Oregon Coach Bellotti does not have a great
overall track record in bowl games but the Ducks delivered a great bowl rout
last season and Oregon should be motivated after finishing the season
strong. The Ducks have been an outstanding underdog in recent years and
Oklahoma State may be a bit overvalued based on the perceived strength of
the Big 12. A closer look at Oklahoma State’s resume reveals that the narrow
Missouri win was much less impressive than it initially appeared as the
Tigers were greatly overrated and OSU played close but lost to Texas in a
very problematic situation for the Longhorns. Oklahoma State could not strop
Texas Tech or Oklahoma and the Cowboys did not play a tough nonconference
schedule. Oregon lost badly at USC this season but the other two
losses came in very close games. Oklahoma State did not perform as well
on the road this season and Oregon appears to be the stronger overall team.
Catching nice value in this spread, the Ducks could deliver and give the dogs
back the momentum in this bowl game. OREGON 37-30
RATING 2: OREGON (+3)
RATING 2: ‘UNDER 77’
MustWinSports
Oregon vs Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma St -2.5
Comments: We're not gonna fall into the trap tonight. Although a lot of the stats point towards Oregon in this matchup we're going to side with Oklahoma State tonight. The only losses that they have had this year came to 3 of the top teams in the country in Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. One of there greatest feats of the year came in a loss by only 4 @ Texas. Oklahoma State has been very impressive as the favorite covering 8 of its last 9. The one top bowl team that Oregon faced this season was USC, where there high powered offense was held to only 10 points. Look for a high scoring affair where Oklahoma State will come out on top.
Tom Freese
La Clippers at Sacramento
The Clippers are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games as underdogs and they are 6-2 ATS on Tuesday. Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS away vs. team with a losing home record and the underdog is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings. Sacramento is 12-27 ATS as favorites of 4.5 or less points and they are 2-9 ATS their last 11 home games. The Kings are 4-9 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. PLAY ON LA CLIPPERS +