SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
L.A. Lakers (30-6, 16-20 ATS) at Houston (24-15, 18-21 ATS)
Something has to give at the Toyota Center, where the Lakers and Rockets both look to extend three-game winning streaks.
Los Angeles held off Miami 108-105 on Sunday, but failed once again to get the cash, coming up way short as an 11-point home favorite. Los Angeles has won three in a row and nine of the last 10, but it has failed to cover in four consecutive games. In fact, the Lakers have been on a roller-coaster ride at the betting window the last six weeks, following up an 0-10 ATS slide with five straight spread-covers before going 0-4 ATS in the last four.
Houston dumped the Knicks 96-76 on Saturday, easily cashing as a 6½-point home favorite. The Rockets have rebounded from a three-game slide with three straight wins, but like Los Angeles, they’ve been a disaster against the number of late, failing to cover in eight of their last 11 overall and four of their last five at the Toyota Center.
Los Angeles blasted the Rockets 111-82 as a seven-point home chalk in the season’s first meeting on Nov. 9. Even though Houston is 4-2 (3-3 ATS) in the last six head-to-head battles, the Lakers in this rivalry are on ATS streaks of 12-5 overall and 6-2 at the Toyota Center. Also, the favorite and the home team are both 5-2 ATS in the last seven get-togethers.
The Lakers have scored at least 100 points in seven consecutive games and have been held to double digits just six times through their first 36 contests. For the season, they’re averaging 107.8 points per game (47.3 percent shooting), including 105.1 ppg on the road (46.3 percent), where Los Angeles is 10-4 on the season (6-8 ATS).
While L.A. has been putting up points with ease all season, the Rockets are in a scoring slump, reaching triple digits just once in their last seven outings and twice in their last 11. However, Houston has held nine of its last 12 opponents under 100 points and is surrendering just 93.7 ppg overall and 90.6 ppg at home, where the Rockets are 12-4 SU, but only 6-10 ATS.
The Lakers carry nothing but negative ATS trends into this game, including 1-6 on the road, 2-11 when playing on one day of rest, 1-4 on Tuesday, 4-9 against the Western Conference, 5-11 after a SU win and 6-18 after an ATS setback. Likewise, Houston is in the midst of pointspread droughts of 3-8 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-4 against the Western Conference, 1-5 after a non-cover and 2-5 when playing on two days’ rest. On the bright side, the Rockets have covered in nine of their last 13 versus teams with a winning record.
The over is 5-2 in the Lakers’ last seven overall and 7-1 in their last eight on Tuesday, but the under has been the play in four of their last five on the highway. For Houston, the under is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 20-8 at home and 4-0 after a SU win. Lastly, the over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Atlanta (22-14, 19-16-1 ATS) at Phoenix (21-13, 13-21 ATS)
The suddenly slumping Hawks look to snap a three-game losing skid when they kick off a three-game West Coast trip with a stop at US Airways Center for a battle with the resurgent Suns.
Atlanta ended 2008 by winning nine of its last 10 games, including the final six in a row, and it also finished the year on a 13-4 ATS tear. However, since flipping the calendar to 2009, the Hawks have dropped four of five, going 0-5 ATS. On Sunday, they hosted the Sixers and got clipped 109-94 as a six-point chalk. Atlanta has been betrayed by its defense lately, allowing 100 points or more in four straight games and six of the last eight.
Contrary to the Hawks, Phoenix has been rising, winning two in a row and five of its last six. On Sunday, the Suns went to Los Angeles and held off the Clippers 109-103, but fell short as a 9½-point road favorite. Despite the recent SU surge, Phoenix remains a miserable bet, going 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games, including 5-11 ATS at home. While the Suns have scored at least 101 points in six straight games and 13 of the last 14, they’ve allowed 13 of their last 16 opponents to reach triple digits.
These teams haven’t faced each other in almost a year, as Atlanta went to the desert late last January and got stomped 125-92 as a 9½-point underdog. However, the first meeting last season, the Hawks rolled to a 105-96 victory as a 5½-point home underdog. The teams have split the season series each of the last two years, the host has cashed in six of the last eight meetings and Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to US Airways Center.
Although the Hawks have failed to cover in five straight overall, six straight after a double-digit home loss and eight of their last 10 on Tuesday, they’re still on positive pointspread runs of 6-3 on the road, 5-1 as an underdog, 6-2 as a road pup, 11-2 as an underdog of five to 10½ points and 4-1 versus the Pacific Division.
Phoenix is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 Tuesday affairs, but its ATS trends turn negative from there, including 4-10 as a favorite, 3-8 at home (all as a favorite), 2-5 when playing on one day of rest, 1-5 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4-1 against the Southeast Division and 1-5 after a SU victory.
The over is 5-1 in the last six Hawks-Suns meetings overall and 5-0 in the last five battles in Phoenix. Also, the over is on runs of 4-0 for Atlanta overall, 6-1 for Atlanta against the Pacific Division, 21-10-1 for Atlanta after a double-digit home loss, 13-5 for the Suns overall, 26-10 for the Suns against the Eastern Conference, 25-10 for the Suns versus the Southeast and 6-1 for the Suns when playing on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (22-15, 15-22 ATS) at Denver (25-13, 21-16-1 ATS)
The Nuggets look to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS against Dallas this season when they host the Mavericks at the Pepsi Center in a Western Conference.
Denver saw its five-game overall winning streak (4-1 ATS) and five-game home winning streak (4-1 ATS) come to a halt in its most recent outing Friday, falling 93-90 to the Pistons as a 4½-point chalk. The Nuggets have limited consecutive opponents to 93 and 97 points after allowing 100 or more in eight straight games, but after averaging 116.8 ppg during their 5-0 overall run, they were held to their second-lowest point total of the season against Detroit.
Dallas tonight concludes a three-game road trip that has started with consecutive lopsided losses at Phoenix (128-100 as a 6½-point underdog) and Sacramento (102-95 as a 2½-point favorite). Prior to embarking on the trip, the Mavericks had won two in a row and 15 of their last 20. However, they’ve failed to cover in five consecutive games overall.
Denver has picked up momentum in this rivalry, winning the last three in a row and five of the last six, going 6-0 ATS in the process, and the Nuggets are also 6-0 ATS the last six times they’ve hosted the Mavericks. Already this season, Denver has topped Dallas 108-105 as a one-point home favorite in November and 98-88 as a 2½-point road pup a month ago. However, George Karl’s club has been an underdog four times during its 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run against the Mavs.
Denver is 14-5 on its home floor (11-7-1 ATS), including 9-3 in its last 12 (7-5 ATS), while Dallas is just 10-9 as a visitor (11-8 ATS), including 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three on the highway.
In addition to their ATS slumps of 0-5 overall and 0-3 on the road, the Mavericks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 against the Northwest Division, 1-5 ATS in their last six on Tuesday and 0-5 ATS in their last five when playing on one day of rest. However, they have cashed in six of their last eight as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are on pointspread runs of 12-4 against the Southwest Division, 21-5-1 when laying between five and 10½ points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU defeat. However, Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a respite of three or more days.
The Nuggets sport “over” streaks of 8-1 overall, 4-1 at home 7-1 as a favorite, 10-4 on Tuesday and 5-1 against the Southwest Division, while the over is 14-6 in Dallas’ last 20 as a road underdog. However, the under is 12-5 in the Mavs’ last 17 overall, 54-25 in their last 79 against the Southwest Division, 42-20-1 in their last 63 when playing on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Florida State (13-3, 6-3 ATS) at N.C. State (9-4, 5-4 ATS)
Two squads that opened the ACC season with disappointing losses on Saturday look to get back on track, as Florida State heads north to Raleigh, N.C., for a matchup with the Wolfpack.
The Seminoles hosted No. 2 Duke on Saturday, and after a sluggish first half – the Blue Devils led just 19-15 – they came out to start the second half and got outscored 41-11 in the first 7:15. However, Florida State battled back to lose by a respectable 66-58 margin and cover as a 10-point home underdog. The Seminoles’ three losses have been by point margins of 14 (at Northwestern), eight (vs. Pitt) and eight (vs. Duke).
N.C. State opened up conference play with Saturday’s 63-51 loss at Clemson, coming up just short as an 11½-point road chalk. Exactly one week earlier, the Wolfpack went to Florida and suffered a tough 68-66 defeat, but covered as a 10½-point underdog. The consecutive losses come on the heels of a 5-1 (2-2 ATS) homestand.
The visitor pulled off the outright upset twice in this series last season, with N.C. State winning 69-66 as an eight-point underdog and the Seminoles returning the favor with a 72-62 rout as a two-point pup one month later. The Wolfpack have won 11 of the last 14 SU and ATS in this rivalry – 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine clashes in Raleigh – with the winner covering the spread in each contest.
Florida State has held its last eight opponents to an average of 57.3 ppg, but the ‘Noles have scored just 59, 58 and 48 points in their three defeats. Also, over their last five games, they’re putting up just 65.6 ppg on 40.3 percent shooting. Meanwhile, N.C. State is averaging 75.1 ppg (48.2 percent shooting) at home and allowing 59.1 ppg (36.4 percent), but in their last five, the Wolfpack are outscoring foes by just one point per game (66.4-65.4) while outshooting them 47 percent to 44 percent.
The Seminoles are on ATS streaks of 10-4-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 5-0-1 in ACC play and 10-4-1 against teams with a winning record. N.C. State is on pointspread upticks of 5-3 overall and 4-1 on Tuesday, but the Pack are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 home games, 3-15 ATS in their last 18 conference contests and 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 after a SU loss.
For Florida State, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 19-9-1 in ACC play, 20-6-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 on Tuesday. The under is also 4-1 in N.C. State’s last five overall and 4-1 in its last five on Tuesday, but otherwise the Wolfpack have topped the total in 10 of their last 14 at home and 16 of their last 22 league outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and UNDER
Kentucky (12-4, 7-3-1 ATS) at (24) Tennessee (10-4, 7-5 ATS)
The surging Wildcats make the trek south to Knoxville looking to improve to 2-0 in SEC play when they clash with 24th-ranked Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena.
Kentucky avenged their worst SEC loss in school history when they took down Vanderbilt 70-60 on Saturday, barely holding on as a 9½-point home chalk. The Wildcats, who lost 93-52 at Vandy last February, are 12-2 SU since opening the season with consecutive losses to VMI and North Carolina, and they’ve cashed in six of their last seven. They’re also 2-0-1 ATS on the highway since losing at then-No. 1 North Carolina on Nov. 18.
The Volunteers snapped a two-game SU and ATS funk with Saturday’s SEC-opening 86-77 win at Georgia, holding on to get the cash as an 8½-point road favorite. The last time Bruce Pearl’s team was at Thompson-Boling, it saw its 37-game home winning streak come to an end in an 89-79 overtime loss to Gonzaga as a 3½-point favorite.
The home team has held serve in this rivalry the last two years, but Kentucky got the cash as an underdog in both meetings last season, winning 72-66 as a 5½-point home pup and losing 63-60 in Knoxville but covering easily as a 14½-point ‘dog. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five. Also, the underdog has been the play in 11 of the last 16 head-to-head tussles.
Kentucky has scored at least 70 points in 13 of 16 games, including the last eight in a row, and defensively, the ‘Cats have allowed more than 70 points just three times during their current 12-2 SU run. For the season, Billy Gillespie’s troops are putting up 79.8 ppg while shooting a blistering 50.5 percent from the floor (33.7 percent from three-point range), and giving up 64.8 ppg (37 percent).
Tennessee ranks sixth in the nation in scoring at 84.3 ppg despite shooting only 45.5 percent. The Vols have scored at least 72 points in every game this season, going for 80 or more eight times. On the defensive end, however, Tennessee is surrendering 75 ppg on 44 percent shooting, allowing 77 or more in five of its last seven outings.
In addition to its ongoing 6-1 ATS roll, Kentucky is on pointspread tears of 4-1 in SEC play, 5-2-1 on the road and 4-0 against winning teams, but the ‘Cats are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday contests. Meanwhile, despite losing to Gonzaga last week, the Vols are still 5-1 ATS in their last six at home.
The over is on streaks of 4-0 for the Vols overall, 4-1 for the Vols in SEC play and 4-1 for Kentucky both after a SU win and an ATS triumph. Conversely, the under is 7-2 in the Wildcats’ last nine SEC games and 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight on Tuesday. Also, last year’s two head-to-head meetings stayed below the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
JIM FEIST
ORLANDO MAGIC / SACRAMENTO KINGS
TAKE: ORLANDO MAGIC
Reason: Not much home court with stumbling Sacramento, at 7-12 at home. There is also no defense, allowing 105 ppg (4th worst) and the Kings are on a 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS run. Orlando, meanwhile, is tops in the NBA in road wins. Dwight Howard scored 24 points, Jameer Nelson had 22 and the Magic beat the San Antonio Spurs 105-98 on Sunday night. Hedo Turkoglu added 21 points for the Magic (30-8), who are tied with the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers for the NBA lead in victories. Orlando has won four straight and 13 of 15 games (15-3 ATS run). Play the Magic.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Dallas Mavericks
When the Mavericks take on the Nuggets in Denver Tuesday night they will not only be looking to avenge a 10-point home loss suffered earlier a month ago but also looking to rebound of a SU favorite loss in their last game. It's all good stuff as Dallas is 5-0 SU and ATS on the road this season after being upset in their previous game this season. They're also 14-5 ATS as road dogs off a SU and ATS loss when seeking revenge. With the Nuggets eyeing up a revenge game up next against Phoenix, we'll grab the points with the Mavericks here this evening.
Dave Cokin
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
Play: Central Michigan +4'
Rough sledding for both of these MAC teams. The Chippewas are still shorthanded and aren't going to win many games this year. But CMU looks like the right side to me tonight. Eastern Michigan has lost seven straight and the Eagles are mired in a terrible shooting slump. Neither team is any good, but I rate CMU as the slightly better team and they're getting a surprising number of points. I'll got with Central Michigan for the free opinion.
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Bobcats in MoTown.
Detroit had picked it up with that seven game winning streak but after losing two of three and after coming home off of the four game West Coast swing I'll grab the points with the visitors from Charlotte.
Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Raymond Felton and the 'Cats clearly are the inferior team here but the Pistons are a semi beat up club with recent injuries to both Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton and after coming back home off of the road easily could be in for a letdown pedestrian type of an effort.
The Pistons are an aging team that still may have one run in them but this is the perfect spot for Allen Iverson and his new team to take a deep breath and not take Charlotte too seriously.
Charlotte is far from a team that I can truly trust but in this spot I will take my chances and expect a closer game that the experts seem to think thanks mainly to a down game from the home Pistons.
Tony Weston
Tonight we're going to back the Detroit Pistons at home against the Charlotte Bobcats.
While the Bobcats have been surprisingly strong ATS this season, going 21-17 despite a 14-24 SU record, Charlotte has struggled mightily lately. Over their last eight games, the Bobcats have gone 3-5 SU and ATS. They're also in a 1-3 SU and ATS slump on the road.
Now Charlotte has to deal with a Pistons team that has been red-hot lately. After a 10-game stretch from Dec. 5 to Dec. 26 where Detroit went 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS, the Pistons have gone 6-2 SU an 5-3 ATS their last eight games.
Also, the Pistons are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS their last 10 meetings against the Bobcats, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS their last six matchups. The Pistons are also 5-1 ATS their last six games against the Bobcats in Detroit.
Detroit will continue its winning ways against Charlotte and get over once again. Take the Pistons in this one easily tonight.
3♦ PISTONS
Karl Garrett
Florida State at NC STATE -4'
Tonight I will go ahead and lay the impost with the Wolf Pack at home over the Seminoles.
At first glance, the points look tempting with Florida State, but when you look inside the numbers, you will see the Seminoles have not played a road game since before Christmas, and that coupled with the fact the Wolf Pack have lost their last pair on the road and are now back home will be a deadly combination for the Sems.
Throw in the fact the Seminoles won by 10 on this court last February, and the 'Pack is a nifty 8-1 straight up at home, and the G-Man can see this one getting away from Florida State late.
I am going to lay the wood with the host in this ACC battle, as NC State shows up to defend their home floor.
Run with the 'Pack in this one!
4♦ NC STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kentucky +7' at LOUISVILLE
Tonight another road underdog, as Kentucky comes through at Tennessee.
The Wildcats come into Knoxville as a danger to the Volunteers. Kentucky is off a solid win over Vanderbilt that was preceded by a narrow 3-point loss at Louisville in a game they did cover as the 7 1/2-point dog.
A weaker Kentucky outfit was able to split outright with the Vols last season, covering both meetings, and Tennnessee is off a deceptive road win at Georgia in a game that went back and forth in the second half before the Volunteers used a late run to pull away.
Tennnessee's last home game was an overtime loss to Gonzaga, and while they may be able to slip by the Wildcats in tonight's spot, we expect this game to be a lot closer than the linesmakers believe.
Play on Kentucky plus the points.
3♦ KENTUCKY
Bobby Maxwell
TCU +14 at BYU
This is just too many points for BYU to lay tonight so we're going to play TCU in this Mountain West Conference showdown from Provo.
Texas Christian has won three straight games in impressive fashion, blowing out Colorado State, going to Texas Tech and getting an 85-80 win as an 8 1/2-point 'dog and then Saturday they handled UNLV 80-73 as four-point home 'dogs. The Horned Frogs are playing their best basketball of the season and have improved the productivity on offense.
They are scoring 75 points a game over the last five, about nine points more than they've averaged the rest of the season. And remember, we're not saying they have to win this game, they are getting a lot of points and just have to keep it respectable.
Last time the Horned Frogs were in Provo they were 15-point 'dogs and lost 83-72 and got the cash. In fact they are 2-1 ATS in the last three visits to BYU, including an 89-80 overtime loss in 2206 as 11-point underdogs.
TCU is 11-5 in its last 16 after a spread-cover, 5-2 in its last seven games overall and 4-0 in its last four Tuesday games. Meanwhile the Cougars are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. We'll go ahead and grab the points tonight with the Horned Frogs. Play TCU.
4♦ TCU
Big Al McMordie
Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -6
At 9 pm, on ESPN, our complimentary selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Kentucky. Is there any team better than the Vols off a road win? Since 1998, Tennessee is an incredible 39-9 straight-up and 37-11 ATS in the regular season following a momentum-building victory away from home. And, in its last game, Bruce Pearl's men scored a 9-point win at Georgia, 86-77, and covered the spread as an 8.5-point favorite. Now, Tennessee comes home to take on the Kentucky Wildcats, who check in off a 10-point win over Vanderbilt. However, at home, the Vols dominate opponents off a win. Since 2002, they're 29-9 ATS, compared to 28-23 ATS at home vs. foes off a straight-up loss. Take Tennessee.
Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
The struggling Penguins are too talented of a team to continue of their 2-8 losing run. Tonight they get back on the winning side vs. a Flyers team they have success against. The Penguins haven't played in a couple of days and in their last 29 games played on 2-days rest the Penguins are 21-8. The Flyers have been playing very well of late but they'll be upset tonight vs. Pittsburgh. The Flyers are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Pittsburgh Penguins +.
Brian Hansen
New Jersey Devils at Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
Another situational play here as the Canucks have lost 4 in a row and will look to take advantage for a sorely needed win over the visiting Devils. New Jersey is coming off a 4-3 road loss and I look for them to have another letdown tonight; in fact it's interesting to note that New Jersey has gone a horrible 1-5 after a non-conference game! Play on VANCOUVER!
Carlo Campanella
Boston hosts Montreal on Tuesday night following a 5-1 victory over Carolina, while improving to an awesome 16-4 at home this season. They remain home for their 6th straight game before starting a two ganme road trip and will win one last one for the home fans as we find Boston at 9-0 ATS at home after a blowout win by 4 goals or more! In fact, they've easily won those next 8 games by an average of 2 goals. BIG edge her for Boston with Tim Thomas in the box.
7* Play On Boston
Tom Freese
Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Orlando is 14-2 ATS vs. Western Conference teams and they are 12-2 ATS off an ATS win. The Magic are 46-22-3 their last 71 road games and they are 9-2 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Sacramento is 3-11 ATS vs. Eastern Conference teams and they are 2-7 ATS their last 9 games as home dogs. The Kings are 2-6 ATS on Tuesday and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games. PLAY ON ORLANDO -
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Memphis -4.5
Memphis has beaten Tulsa by at least 11 points in 6 straight meetings. Yes, this is not the same Memphis team which made it all the way to the NCAA championship game, but it is still the class of Conference USA. It's length and press will both the Golden Hurricane enough tonight to cover this number. Memphis is 54-28 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997, winning by an average score of 75.9 to 67.6. Also, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, in January games are 54-23 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.