LT Profits
Delaware @ Drexel Under 126
The Drexel Dragons are offensively challenged but play good defense, and we look for them to control the pace at home when they host the Delaware Fighting Blue Hens tonight, which should result in a low scoring affair.
Taking a peak at the Pomeroy Ratings, Drexel is averaging a lowly .933 points per possession, ranking them number 284 in the country in raw offensive efficiency. Even after adjusting for their opposition, the Dragons do not improve much, reporting home at 241.
On the defensive end however, Drexel is allowing just .968 PPP, and their adjusted figure of .945 ranks them a very respectable number 70 in the country. When combining these offensive and defensive numbers, it should come as no surprise that the Under is a very profitable 9-4-1 in all Dragons games so far this season.
Delaware has not exactly been a scoring machine either this season, averaging .988 points per possession with an adjusted offensive PPP ranking of 218. They are also a poor offensive rebounding team, meaning that they do not get many second chance garbage points. Like Drexel, the biggest positives for the Blue Hens can both be found on the defensive end, where they are in the Top 50 in the nation in both Block Percentage and Steal Percentage.
Thus, look for a rather boring contest with a very choppy pace.
Pick: Delaware, Drexel Under 126
Larry Ness
Colorado -10.5 vs Texas Tech
Tech's 167-point effort against East Central has long ago been forgotten as the Red Raiders host Colorado tonight on a three-game losing streak and four losses in their last five games (10-7 overall mark). Pat Knight is in his first full season taking over for his legendary father and the going has not been easy. Martin Zeno (16.0-4.5), the team's best player, has graduated and Tech again is a perimeter-based team. Senior Voskuil (14.3-4.6) and sophomore Roberson (14.1-3.5-6.0) have been joined by JUCO Okorie (10.2-3.5) in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, it's the 6-5 Singletary (10.4-5.6), the 6-8 Cook 97.6-3.4) and the 6-7 Roberts (7.2-4.5). Jeff Bzdelik is a well-respected evaluator of talent and he knows he doesn't have too much talent in Boulder. The Buffs won just seven games two years ago and last year, in Bzdelik's first at Boulder, Colorado finished 12-20, including 3-13 in the Big 12. Colorado comes into this game having lost five of its last six and with an 8-8 record overall (0-2 in the big 12). Guards Higgins (17.6-6.1) and Thorne (11.8-3.4) return, joined by freshman guard Tomlinson (8.2-3.4 APG) and 6-8 freshman Dufault (9.4-3.9), forming the strength of this year's team. Colorado has yet to win a true road game this year (0-3) and the Red Raiders are still a decent home team (9-2 TY), especially against this quality of opposition. Expect the Red Raiders to get back on the winning track here and for that win to come rather easily. Lay the points.
GREG SHAKER
Creighton Bluejays at Evansville Aces
Play: Evansville +2
Homecourt is huge for this Aces team with their only loss here in 12 tries being to the very hot Northern Iowa squad. They have played extremely good D here and they have been a monster on the boards. A curious thing has been happening to Creighton, and that is, they are not getting second looks at the basket in recent games. They were outboarded by an amazing 40-19 at Wichita State and have had other large deficits verses Northern Iowa, and Illinois State. Evansville does do that part of their game well and a big advantage tonight. Teams coming to Evansville have hit just 38% of their shots and we can couple that with the rebounding edge to determine that this could be a tough night for the visiting Bluejays. Low shooting percentage and not many re-ups could spell DISASTER. This line has drifted down to +1.5 at some books..
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
SAN ANTONIO -7.5 over Indiana: The Spurs have take the last 3 in this series at home, both SU and ATS and have done so by 18.7 ppg. The Pacers hole the offensive edge in this one but San Antonio gets the HUGE edge on the defensive end of the court. The Spurs are ranked 7th in the league in scoring defense, allowing just 94 ppg and they allow 94.5 ppg at home on the year. The Pacers defense allows 106.9 ppg (28th) and they are in the bottom of the 3rd in both FG% defense and 3pt defense. The Pacers are playing good ball right now, but the Spurs are at home, where they have dominated this series of late. I see the Spurs defense controlling this game and taking it by 10+ points.
2 UNIT PLAYS
San Antonio/ Indiana Under 208: The Under is 14-5-1 in Spurs last 20 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. I realize that 11 of the last 12 in this series has gone over the total, but let take a closer look at that for a moment. The Average OU line for those 12 games was just 181.5 and thats 26.5 ppg lower than tonights total. The average points scored in those games was 190.6 ppg and thats 17.4 ppg lower than tonights total. You want me to dig further? Ok. Only once in the last 24 meetings between these teams has their been more than 208 points scored in a game and that was back on 2005, while the total score was 209 points. San Antonio games have averaged 190 oog on the year, while their home games have averaged just 193 ppg this year. I know the Pacers like to get up and down the court, but the Spurs are at home where they play excellent defense (94.5 ppg) and they should be able to dictate the pace and keep the score down. This total is way too high I feel.
Atlanta +4.5 over CHICAGO: The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest, while the 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast. Both teams come in struggling a bit as Atlanta is 2-7 in their last 9 games, while the Bulls are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Hawks are just 8-12 SU on the road this year, but 12-8 ATS and they have been outscored by just 1.6 ppg in their road games. The Bulls have been solid at home this year going 13-8 SU, but just 10-11 ATS and have only outscored opponents by 1.9 ppg on their home floor. Atlanta last 5 overall have been decided by an average of just 1 ppg, while the Bulls have also been involved in tight ones of late as their last 5 have been decided by an average of just 2 ppg. This game will go down to the wire and no matter who wins they will do so by 4 points or less.
1 UNIT PLAY
Denver/ Sacramento 218.5; The Over is 6-1 in Kings last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 23-9 in their last 32 games following an ATS loss, while the Over is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 19-8 in Nuggets last 27 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. The Kings come in ranked 29th in points allowed (107.4 ppg) 27th in FG% defense (47.5%) and 30th in 3pt FG defense (41.3%). Their defense has been even more horrid of late as they have allowed 123 ppg in their last 5 games. Now they must take on a Denver offense that is 5th in scoring (104 ppg), 6th in FG% (47% and 7thin 3pt FG%( 38%). Denvers offense has slipped a bit with the loss of Melo, but they still average 105.6 ppg and should have no problems scoring points vs. this defense. The Nuggets defense has also slipped of late as they have allowed 111.3 ppg in their last 3. Two struggling defense with two team that like to rune is a recipe for a high scoring game.
Jack Jones
Ohio Bobcats -4 over Akron Zips
Take the Ohio Bobcats tonight as they have been nothing but money on their home court this season. So far they are 7-0 overall at home, including a 3-0 mark against the spread. They'll square off with the Akron Zips, who have managed just a 4-5 road recoard this season. Ohio has a huge edge here in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.6% (43.1% at home) to just 32.5% by Akron. The real strength for the Bobcats, however, comes from their frontcourt in the form of Jerome Tillamn. Tillman has dominated opponents and is averaging just over 20 points and 9 rebounds per game. The Zips do not have someone in the paint that can consistently contend with Tillman, and I believe he will be the difference in tonight's game.
Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Chicago Bulls
I will take the Hawks on the road against a Chicago team that is just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 home games. The Hawks have won 3 straight games in this series including a 129-117 point victory the last time they met and a 113-108 victory the last time they met in Chicago. I still feel like Atlanta has one of the best overall backcourts in the NBA with Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson. The two combined for 51 points 10 rebounds and 7 assists in their last game, and nights like that have become commonplace for the pair. I do have some concerns about the Hawks in the paint as they don't really have a presence there, but, luckily for them, neither do the Bulls. I'm taking the Hawks to upset the Bulls in Chicago tonight.
SACRAMENTO vs. DENVER FREE PICK
The Denver Nuggets have played without their leading scorer for the last six games facing six straight winning teams. Tonight, they get some relief from the lowly Sacramento Kings and try to avoid what would be their second three-game losing streak of the season. Denver has gone 3-3 since Carmelo Anthony fractured his right hand on Jan. 5 against Indiana against six teams that are currently over .500. Denver has played with good effort as the losses have been good losses. The Nuggets could have the chance to put up big numbers against Sacramento which ranks 29th in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing 107.4 points per game. Milwaukee scored at least 30 points in each quarter of its 129-122 win over the Kings on Friday, as Sacramento lost for the 13th time in its last 16 games despite four of its players scoring at least 20 points.Kevin Martin and John Salmons each scored 24 points, but it wasn't enough to bring Sacramento (10-31) back from a 19-point deficit after the first quarter. The Kings have been even worse on the road, as they needed three overtimes to end their 12-game road losing streak last Wednesday with a 135-133 win at Golden State. Sacramento shot just 29.3 percent at home in a 118-85 loss to the Nuggets in their last game on Dec. 6 to open this season's series. If Denver continues to play as hard as they have been, this should be an easy victory tonight.
TAKE DENVER-9 1/2
JR Tips
Info Plays
3* on Sacramento Kings +9.5
Reasons why Sacramento covers the spread Tuesday
1.) Denver just played a nail biter in Houston last night. The Nuggets lost that game 115-113, using a ton of energy in a high-scoring affair. Denver will return home a bit deflated Tuesday, making them easy pickens for a Sacramento Kings team that is finally healthy. Although Sacramento is just 3-17 SU in road games this season, they have gone a very profitable 12-8 ATS. The Kings have won 2 of their last 4 games with victories over the Mavericks and Warriors. The return of Kevin Martin to the lineup makes this team very dangerous right now, as the Kings also have Brad Miller, Francisco Garcia and Beno Udrih who are a trio of players that can fill up a stat sheet.
2.) No Carmelo Anthony. The Nuggets have surprisingly played will without Anthony, but they can't continue to do so. Denver has now lost back-to-back games without Anthony in the lineup, including a blowout 88-106 home loss to Orlando on Saturday. Denver now has a thin bench, and this will be the Nuggets' 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, this will only be Sacramento's 3rd game in 6 days. So clearly the Kings will be the more energized team for this contest Tuesday and it will pay off as they keep it close, possibly handing the Nuggets their 3rd straight loss.
3.) System Play. We'll Play On - Underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. This is a 26-4 ATS System hitting 86.7% over the last 5 seasons. The Kings did lose to the Nuggets badly earlier this season, but that was when Anthony and the Nuggets were healthy and the Kings were beat up. Now these teams have reversed their roles, as the Kings are healthy and the Nuggets are beat up. Sacramento will be looking for revenge tonight. Bet the Kings on the road.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Vanderbilt +1.5
2 Units - Washington Capitals -140
2 Units - Utah/Minnesota Under 205.5