Tuesday's Bowl Tip Sheet

Tuesday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 24, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

**Utah vs. West Virginia**

Heart of Dallas Bowl History

-- The Utah Utes (6-6 straight up, 8-3-1 against the spread) of the Pac-12 Conference meet the West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) of the Big 12 Conference in a Power 5 matchup in the Cotton Bowl in the Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl. It's a meeting between two teams who have much loftier goals before the season began. Utah is fairly lucky to be bowling anywhere after a late-season swoon, while the Mountaineers enter on a much higher note. Vegas expects rather moderate scoring in this one, with the total holding steady around 56.

-- The Utes won their regular-season finale on Nov. 25 against Colorado by a 34-13 score to gain bowl eligibility on the final day of the season, covering in back-to-back games for the first time since opening the season 4-0 ATS in the first four weekends. The Utes fired out of the box with a 4-0 SU/ATS record, but a stunning 23-20 loss to Stanford really kicked them off track back on Oct. 7. They followed that up with a narrow 28-27 loss at USC on Oct. 14, and then they had their doors blown off 30-10 at home against Arizona State. After winning their first four, they endured a four-game losing streak with a 41-20 setback at Oregon back on Oct. 28. They were fortunate enough to face UCLA without pro prospect QB Drew Rosen on Nov. 3, and they went on to a 48-17 win to snap their drought.

-- When the Utes are on offense, the Mountaineers should expect to see a heavy dose of RB Zack Moss. He was this season's version of Joe Williams (man, I love that guy!). Moss rolled for 1,023 yards on 194 attempts, averaging 5.3 yards per tote while punching in nine touchdowns. When Moss wasn't running the ball, it was dual-threat QB Tyler Huntley doing his thing. He completed 65.4 percent of his pass attempts for 2,246 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while also running for 480 yards and four scores. He missed the regular-season finale due to an unspecified injury, giving way to QB Troy Williams. However, Huntley is fully expected to suit up for this one. Devonta'e Henry-Cole is also a bruiser who averaged 5.0 yards per attempts while finding the end zone twice.

-- In the pass game it was WR Darren Carrington II showing his playmaking ability, leading the team with 66 receptions, 918 yards and six scores. WRs Raelon Singleton and Siaosi Wilson proved that the Utes aren't a one-trick pony in the receiving corps, as Singleton found the end zone four times with 14.1 yards per reception, whileWilson was good for 20 grabs, 393 yards and a touchdown, gathering nearly 20 yards on every catch. WR Demari Simpkins is another speedster from South Florida who found his way to Salt Lake City, and he has a bright future. He showed glimpses of brilliance with 27 grabs, 337 yards and a score.

-- Utah was right down the middle in most offensive and defensive categories. They ranked 48th in the nation in total yards (417.7 per game), while accounting for 256.4 passing yards game to rank 44th. They also averaged 29.5 points per game (PPG) to check in 57th in the country. Their field-goal efficiency was one of the better percentages in the nation, converting 84.4 percent of their tries to check in 15th. On defense, Utah was stingy, finishing 32nd in the country in total yards allowed (353.5 yards per game), and they yielded just 138.5 yards per game on the ground to finishing 38th in the country in that category. They also allowed just 23.9 PPG, ranking 43rd overall.

-- For West Virginia, they were humming along nicely until QB Will Grier suffered a broken middle finger on his throwing hand in the Nov. 18 game against Texas. It was an injury which required corrective surgery. While he has yet to be ruled out for the game, head coach Dana Holgorsen has said it doesn't look good that Grier will be able to play. As such, expect to see QB Chris Chugunov under center for West Virginia.

-- The Mountaineers finished 14th in the country in total yards (485.5 yards per game), including 324.8 passing yards per game to rank 12th in the nation. However, that's mostly with Grier at the helm. When the team needed to run the ball they were rather middling, averaging 160.8 yards per game on the ground. Justin Crawford wasn't terrible, going for 1,060 yards on 5.5 yards per tote, scoring seven touchdowns. Kennedy McCoy also scored seven rushing touchdowns while averaging 5.1 yards per carry, so there is talent there. Chugunov completed just 54.8 percent of his passes while posting 407 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in his appearances this season. While Grier has some mobility, Chugunov will never be confused with a dual-threat QB, either.

-- West Virginia's defense is among the worst of all bowl teams, as they allowed 452.5 yards per game to rank 111th in the nation, while finishing exactly 100th in the country in passing yardage allowed (247.8 yards per game) and 105th in rushing yards (204.8 yards per game). Utah should be able to move the ball early and often against a defensive unit which struggled all season, yielding 23 or more points in each of the final three outings, and eight of their final nine matchups.

-- The Mountaineers have some talented receivers, lead by Gary Jennings. He gathered 94 balls for 1,030 yards, but he managed just one score. A majority of the scoring was done by WRs David Sills V and Ka'Raun White. Sills had just 60 receptions, but 18 of them were good for touchdowns. White posted 58 grabs for 978 yards, but 11 of his receptions resulted in a score, too. WR Marcus Simms also got into them mix with 32 receptions, 630 yards and five touchdowns, so West Virginia has the players to take it to the house on most every play.

-- As a single-digit favorite this season, Utah finished 4-1 SU/ATS, winning and covering in their past two instances as 9 1/2-point favorites both against Colorado and UCLA. The only time they failed to cover as a single-digit favorite was at Oregon on Oct. 28 as a three-point fave.

-- As a single-digit underdog this season, West Virginia failed in each outing by going 0-2 SU/ATS. They dropped their opener 31-24 against Virginia Tech as a five-point 'dog, and they were tripped up 50-39 at home back on Oct. 28 against visiting Oklahoma State as an 8 1/2-point underdog.

-- Utah has posted a 9-3 ATS mark over their past 12 bowl games, and they're 9-3 ATS in their past 12 neutral-site battles, too. The Utes have also posted an impressive 18-7-1 ATS mark over their past 26 against teams with a winning overall record. Outside the Pac-12, Utah has posted a 44-21-2 ATS mark over the past 67 non-conference games, while going 4-0 ATS in their past four against Big 12 foes.

-- Dating back to the Las Vegas Bowl in 1999, the Utes are on quite the roll when it comes to the postseason. They're a whopping 13-1 SU in their past 14 bowl appearances, falling only to Boise State in the 2010 Las Vegas Bowl. Last season they pushed past Indiana by a 26-24 score in the Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara, Calif. These teams actually have met in a bowl game, too, squaring off in the 1964 Liberty Bowl at the Atlantic City Convention Hall. It was Utah winning by a 32-6 score in front of 6,059 fans.

-- The Mountaineers haven't been very good against the number lately, going 1-4-1 ATS over their past six, and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl games. They're also a dismal 0-5 ATS in their past five neutral-site appearances.

-- West Virginia was tripped up by Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl last season, falling 31-14 in Orlando. They were victorious in their most recent bowl appearance against a Pac-12 side, topping Arizona State in the Cactus Bowl on Jan. 2, 2016 in Phoenix. However, Holgorsen is 2-3 SU in his five games as coach in a bowl game.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Duke vs. Northern Illinois**

Quick Lane Bowl History

-- In the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit, Mich., the Duke Blue Devils (6-6 straight up, 6-5-1 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference locks horns with the Northern Illinois Huskies (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference.

-- Both teams should be rather happy to be bowling, especially Duke. They shot out of the chute with four wins to open the season, including an impressive 41-17 victory over Northwestern back on Sept. 9. They also opened 4-0 ATS. However, the Blue Devils endured a six-game losing streak which just about ended any chances of bowl eligibility. They came alive in the final two games, posting a 43-20 win against Georgia Tech, and an impressive 31-23 victory at Wake Forest in the regular-season finale to get their elusive sixth win and go bowling for a fifth time in the past six seasons, quite the feat for the Blue Devils.

-- Duke didn't pass the ball well this season, ranking 81st in the country with 210.2 yards per game through the air. They also didn't pile up the points, posting a meager 25.8 PPG to finish 84th overall in the land. The reason the Blue Devils are bowling is mostly because of their defense. Duke allowed just 338.8 yards per game to rank 25th in the country, and they were even stingier in pass defense by allowing just 174.8 yards per game, finishing 11th overall. They yielded just 20.8 PPG, too, finishing 26th in the nation.

-- QB Daniel Jones wasn't terribly effective up top, completing just 55.7 percent of his pass attempts for 2,439 yards, 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He did good work on the ground, however, rushing for 432 yards while tying for the team lead with six rushing scores. RB Shaun Wilson led the way with 743 yards and five touchdowns, while Brittain Brown gobbled up 660 yards with a team-high 5.6 yards per total and a team-high tying six rushing scores.

-- The top three receivers on this team each had just one touchdown grab, so that's an area of concern for Duke. WR T.J. Rahming is this year's version of Conner Vernon or Jamison Crowder, posting 61 receptions for 733 yards and 12.0 yards per grab. The next best receiver was Johnathan Lloyd, who hauled in 37 balls for 364 yards and a score. RB Shaun Wilson came out of the backfield to snag 32 receptions for 241 yards and five scores, while TE Daniel Helm totaled 188 yards and two scores while going for 11.1 yards per grab.

-- Like Duke, NIU is rather marginal on the offensive side of the ball. They averaged 388.1 yards per game, finishing 82nd in the land, while rushing was their biggest area of success. The Huskies posted 190.0 yards per game to finish 37th overall in the country. That will be the key to this game - NIU's rushing offense vs. Duke's rushing defense. On defense, the Huskies were sharp. They gave up just 328.4 yards per game to check in 18th in the country, and they ranked 11th in the nation with 112.2 yards per game allowed. They also yielded just 20.8 PPG to finish 27th.

-- The offense is led by freshman QB Marcus Childers, who is rather green, but he has tremendous upside. The frosh completed just 57.3 percent of his throws for 1,445 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also scampered for 459 and five touchdowns, a mark which actually led the team. When Childers wasn't running it was Jordan Huff leading the charge. He averaged a robust 5.8 yards per game, compiling 740 yards with four scores. Marcus Jones is also one to watch, as he racked up 347 yards and two touchdowns.

-- WR Spencer Tears won't make anyone cry, but he was pretty effective with 39 receptions for a team-high 461 yards and four touchdowns. Like Duke, the Huskies also like to use their tight end, and it was TE Shane Wimann leading the team with seven receiving TDs, posting 30 grabs for 283 yards and 9.4 yards per receptions. WR Christian Blake, a Fort Lauderdale, Fla. product, tied for the team lead with 39 grabs while adding 421 yards and four scores.

-- Duke posted a dismal 2-5-1 ATS over their past eight games overall, but they're 19-6-1 ATS in their past 26 non-conference tilts. They re also an impressive 13-1 ATS across their past 14 games on a fieldturf surface. The 'over' has also cashed in each of the past four bowl games for the Blue Devils, although the 'under' was 9-1 over their past 10. The under is also 9-4 in Duke's past 13 non-conference tilts and 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning overall record.

-- NIU hasn't been as good against the number recently, posting a 1-4 ATS mark over their past five overall, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven games in the month of December. They're also 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl appearances, while going 5-15-1 ATS across the past 21 neutral-site games. However, they have covered four in a row outside the conference while going 4-1-1 ATS in their past six tries against ACC foes.

-- Duke won a thrilling Pinstripe Bowl in their most recent postseason appearance, topping Indiana 44-41 back on Dec. 26, 2015. That was their first bowl victory since the 1961 Cotton Bowl when they edged out Arkansas by a 7-6 score. The Blue Devils also have the honor of hosting the 1942 Rose Bowl in their home stadium back in North Carolina, a loss to Oregon State. That Rose Bowl was moved from California to North Carolina due to World War II and the threat to the west coast.

-- This will be NIU's first bowl appearance since Dec. 23, 2015, a 55-7 spanking from Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl. The Huskies have been on the short end of their past four bowl appearances, including the 2013 Orange Bowl when they were basically a Group of Six team facing off against Florida State. Their last bowl win was Jan. 8, 2012 in the GoDaddy.com Bowl in Mobile, Ala. against Arkansas State, 38-20.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Kansas State vs. UCLA**

Cactus Bowl History

-- The latest installment of the Cactus Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ariz. features two more Power 5 Conference teams battling each other. The Kansas State Wildcats (7-5 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 battle the UCLA Bruins (6-6 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) from the Pac-12.

-- The Bruins will be led by interim head coach Jedd Fisch, who keeps the seat warm until Chip Kelly is ready to take over in the offseason. Fisch is in there because the team elected to can Jim Mora Jr. after the team's loss against USC. He steered them to a 30-27 victory against California in the regular season finale back on Nov. 24, helping the team secure bowl eligibility when it looked rather grim.

-- UCLA ranked 19th in the nation in total yardage with 465.7 yards per game, and they were fifth in the nation with 345.3 yards per game through the air. That's because of NFL prospect Drew Rosen airing it out early and often. The run game wasn't much to write home about, ranking a dismal 114th in the nation with just 120.3 yards per game. On defense, the Bruins were dinged for 488.8 yards per game, ranking 123rd in the country. That's an area they'll need to shore up if they're to have success. They couldn't stop anyone on the ground, yielding a dismal 282.7 yards per game to check in 129th.

-- The offense is all about Rosen, and he will play in the bowl game. The trend for pro prospects lately has been to skip the team's bowl game, but he vowed to play. He completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 3,717 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for two scores, but he'll never be confused with Michael Vick or Cam Newton. Bolo Olorunfunmi gave the team some semblance of a run game down the stretch, posting a team-best 542 yards with five scores, while Soso Jamabo scored a team-best six rushing touchdowns while averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

-- WR Jordan Lasley is Rosen's favorite target, hauling in 61 balls for 1,136 yards and eight scores. He also led the team with a sparkling 18.6 yards per reception. WR Darren Andrews is right there with 773 yards and 12.9 yards per grab, while leading the team with 10 touchdown grabs. TE Caleb Wilson also served as a nice tertiary receiving option, posting 38 grabs, 490 yards, 12.9 yards per catch and one score. Jamabo has the best hands of the receivers out of the backfield, catching 16 balls with 12.4 yards per reception.

-- K-State struggled on the offensive side of the ball, at least in the passing game. The Wildcats were able to muster just 181.7 yards per game through the air, ranking 97th in the country. Their bread was buttered in the run game, posting 186.7 yards per game, which was good for 41st in the country. They're also decent in the kick game, should the game be decided by a late field goal. On defense, they lock it down against the run, giving up just 121.8 yards per game to check in 19th. That makes it likely UCLA runs even less than they usually do, especially since the Wildcats allowed 310.2 yards per game through the air to rank 129th in FBS. Not good against a QB like Rosen and a pass-first offense.

-- QB Jesse Ertz was lost for the season in late November to a knee injury, and QB Alex Delton (head) is a question mark for the bowl game. QB Skylar Thompson is likely to start, and he posted a team-best 63.2 completion percent with 662 passing yards, five touchdowns and just two interceptions while running 64 times for 263 yards and three scores. RB Alex Barnes topped the charts with 702 rushing yards and six touchdowns, and Delton was second on the team with 342 yards and five scores, so he could help out if cleared.

-- With a hodgepodge at quarterback this season, you would think the receiving game struggles, but WR Byron Pringle is a talented playmaker in the mold of a Darren Sproles or Tyler Lockett, two former K-State alumni. He had just 28 grabs, but went for a team-high 705 yards or 25.2 yards per receptions while finding the end zone six times. He is also a big-time threat in the special teams department, so watch for that. WR Isaiah Zuber is a possession receiver who is a go-to guy when trying to move the sticks. He had by far the most catches (51), while posting four scores. WR Dalton Schoen posted 20.4 yards per reception with three scores.

-- The Wildcats limp into this game with a 2-7 ATS mark over their past nine bowl games, and they're just 2-5 ATS across the past seven neutral-site battles. They're also just 1-5 ATS in their past six tries against teams from the Pac-12 Conference.

-- The Bruins haven't exactly lit the world afire against the number, either, going 1-7 ATS in their past eight non-conference battles, 4-10 ATS in their past 14 overall and 7-16 ATS in the past 23 on grass surfaces. The Bruins like to go 'over', posting a 5-1-1 mark in their past seven non-conference tilts, and an 11-4 'over' mark in the past 15 vs. teams from the Big 12.

-- If this seems like a familiar bowl matchup, these two teams did meet in the 2015 Alamo Bowl in San Antonio. The Bruins came away with a 40-35 victory. It's a familiar result for the Wildcats, as they're a dismal 2-7 SU over their past nine bowl games.

-- UCLA is bowling for the first time since Dec. 26, 2015 in the Foster Farms Bowl, a 37-29 loss in a thriller against Nebraska. Their last bowl victory was that win against K-State in the Alamo Bowl, and they're 2-1 in their past three, but just 6-11 SU over their past 17 postseason appearances.

-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.