Two season rematches on Saturday Arena slate
By: Steve Makinen
Two of the three games on the Saturday Arena Football betting board are rematches from games earlier this season. Many football bettors believe that there is a lot to be gained by analyzing the most recent game between two clubs. Let’s breakdown this angle and any other info in the two contests to see if we can’t uncover any edges that might help us beat the Sportsbook.com lines available.
ALABAMA at JACKSONVILLE - 7:05 PM
Line: Jacksonville by 6.5
If the playoffs started today in Arena League, both Alabama & Jacksonville would represent the American Conference. However, for the visiting Vipers, a loss here could change that, as Orlando is breathing down their necks. For Alabama, the next four weeks will make or break the season, as they will square off against four straight playoff contenders after facing the league’s easiest schedule to date. In fact, when comparing the two schedule strength ratings of these foes, the difference is a full 5.6 points according to the StatFox Power Ratings.
Schedule strengths aside, one of the Vipers’ biggest wins of the season came early against this same Jacksonville squad, 63-49 on April 9th. In that game, Alabama held the Sharks to a season low 190 yards of offense. The game seemed to be a wake-up call for Jacksonville though, as it went on to six straight wins. However, it has since lost two in a row against a pair of other hot teams.
It’s interesting to note that Jacksonville was a 4-point favorite last time around at Alabama. Also, the Sharks have gone OVER the total in three straight games.
The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings indicate Jacksonville should be favored by 9.3 points, counting 3-points for home field advantage. The Sharks are 4-1 at home in 2010, outscoring opponents by 7 PPG.
OKLAHOMA CITY at BOSSIER-SHREVEPORT - 8:05 PM
Line: Oklahoma City by 6
Saturday’s game between Oklahoma City and Bossier-Shreveport is a rematch of the highest scoring contest of the season, as OKC defeated BS 88-79 back on May 8th. However, as a sign of how much things have changed for the teams, perhaps starting with that game, the Yard Dawgz are now a 6-point road favorite after playing as a pick em’ in that earlier contest at home.
So what has exactly changed since then to sway the line so greatly? Well, first off, Bossier has won just one of its last nine games, that being a 1-point decision at lowly Dallas. The Battle Wings have struggled with quarterback play with Ray Philyaw being in and out of the lineup.
Oklahoma City is just 2-4 since that win and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but does have a very manageable schedule the rest of the way and could make a playoff push. They hope that started last week with the 35-31 win in Dallas. The Yard Dawgz have gone under the total in three straight games. However, according to this FoxSheets’ system, that makes them an attractive road favorite for tonight’s contest:
# Play On - Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. (24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Power Line shows OKC by 9. However, whether you have enough stomach to back a road favorite that hasn’t won a game in five tries away from home this season is for you to decide.