The UEFA Euro Qualifiers Group D, Round 7, kicks off tonight. The home team, Croatia, currently has 3 wins, 1 draw, accumulating 10 points. With one less game played, they lead their opponents, Turkey, in goal difference. This match is undeniably a battle for the top spot. The team that wins will lead the group in points.
Regarding the line-up, Croatia's forward line is depleted. The former Inter Milan striker, Ljajic, announced his retirement from the national team last week. Another forward, Kramaric, is injured. Dinamo Zagreb striker Petkovic also withdrew from this squad due to injury, while Perisic is expected to return only in the middle of next year.
The visiting team, Turkey, currently has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, also accumulating 10 points. However, during the last international break, their performance was disappointing. They were unexpectedly drawn at home by Armenia, and subsequently lost 4 goals to Japan in a friendly match. This led to the sacking of their coach Kuntz, with the young Italian coach, Montella, taking charge. This will be his debut match for Turkey.
In terms of the line-up, Turkey has sent their strongest team. Players like Calhanoglu, Kabak, Tosun, Özcan, and Celik, all from the top five European leagues, are all included. Their overall strength is not weak.
From the released odds, Croatia started at a handicap of 0.75, which dropped a bit later on. Given the positions of both teams, Croatia is two notches above. Starting with a handicap of 0.75 seems reasonable. Although Croatia is perceived to be much stronger, Turkey is no pushover. Historically, Croatia was drawn in their last two home matches against Turkey. Given the attractiveness of the odds for a draw, and it being placed at a relatively high position of 3.60, it can effectively divert the focus from a home win. The odds for Turkey's win are above 5.0 without any protection. Therefore, for this match, I favor the home team, Croatia, to take all three points.
Predicted Score: 2:1 or 1:0.
Match data is sourced from: FootballAnt.