Under-the-Radar Teams
By Bruce Marshall
The Gold Sheet
Each season, several teams "sneak up" on handicappers and run off pointspread win streaks that nobody seems to notice until it reaches 4 or 5 in a row. Often times, however, the value in the team's pointspreads will start to disappear just when everyone begins to take notice, and soon the win streak will end.
What we look to do in the "Pointspread Streaks" portion of the THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA's weekly Systems Spotlight feature is try to identify teams in the earliest stages of spread winning or losing streaks, beginning at two wins or losses in a row. From those groups of 2 straight winners or losers each week are at least a handful of teams that will continue on with their pointspread streaks. As we mentioned, it's better to pick out those teams earlier in their streaks than later.
With that in mind, in the space below we'll try to identify some budding winning trends in that grouping, while highlighting some of those squads on the possible upswing that appear to be "flying under the radar" as we move into late September.
UConn...Not many were forecasting the Huskies to make much noise this season after star RB Donald Brown moved to the NFL and the Indianapolis Colts. But three games into the new campaign, the Huskies have yet to drop a pointspread decision and are just a field goal away from being unbeaten straight up after a narrow 12-10 loss September 12 vs. Butch Davis' impressive North Carolina. Along the way, the Huskies scored a noteworthy 30-22 upset win last Saturday vs. an improved Baylor squad that won impressively at Wake Forest in its opener. Moreover, HC Randy Edsall's offense doesn't seem to be missing Brown too much, as a pair of RBs, Andre Dixon (149 YR and 3 TDs) and Jordan Todman (103 YR) each cracked the century mark in Waco, which marked the longest-ever road trip for the UConn program!
Idaho...Nobody has paid much attention to the Idaho Vandals in any sport since Gus Johnson was a hoops star in Moscow in the early '60s. But we've been keeping an eye on the apparently improved Vandals football team that's started off 2009 by winning two of its first three games and covering all three of its pointspread decisions. Third-year HC Robb Akey has several multi-year starters on a roster that he has nurtured since many were first-year players in the program back in 2007. Among those is jr. QB Nathan Enderle, who has emerged as a competent on-field leader after gaining plenty of respect from teammates while enduring lots of bumps and bruises (to his psyche as well) the past two seasons. Moreover, Idaho is making a conscious effort to balance things offensively this season, establishing something of a ground diversion with RBs DeMaundray Woolridge (93 yards rushing and 2 TDs in last week's win over San Diego State), Princeton McCarthy, and Deonte Jackson, and that extra balance is helping Enderle cut down on the sort of mistakes that cost him and the offense dearly the past two seasons (Enderle has only suffered two picks in his first three games). Moreover, Akey, a defensive specialist, finally has some experience to work with on a stop unit that has held up much better than the platoons that were mostly trampled the past two seasons. He's even uncovered a playmaker or two, including DB Joseph Dickson, who took an interception 74 yards for a Vandal TD last week vs. the Aztecs.
Indiana...We'll start to find out a bit more about the Hoosiers when they begin Big Ten play this week against another hot team from the gate, 3-0 Michigan. To this point, however, HC Bill Lynch has the Hoosiers at a surprising 3-0 (2-0 vs. the number), with an offense seeming to gain more confidence each week in the new "Pistol" formation recently made popular at Nevada. QB Ben Chappell has emerged as a nice playmaker, completing 69% of his passes for 674 yards in the first three games, while RB Demetrius McCray has provided a nice infantry diversion and is gaining a healthy 5.4 ypc. Moreover, the attack seems to be improving by the week after opening with an unimpressive 19-13 win over Eastern Kentucky. Successive wins over representative MAC foes Western Michigan and Akron have the Hoosiers half way to the six wins they need for a bowl invitation...and it's only mid-September. Some midwest observers believe it has also been a case of addition by subtraction in Bloomington, with the distractions provided by former QB Kellen Lewis no longer a problem since his dismissal from the program.
Middle Tennessee...The Sun Belt usually has a surprise team or two each season and this year it could be the Blue Raiders. Although MTSU started off on the wrong foot against Clemson (when the Tigers, buoyed by an opening kickoff TD and early lead, put MTSU in a deep hole at the outset), the Murfreesboro bunch has bounced back with a vengeance, posting a pair of impressive wins over representative opposition, first throttling Memphis at Jonny Floyd Stadium and then going on the road to take down Maryland in a thriller last weekend at College Park. Wins such as those are heady stuff for a Sun Belt team, but scouts in the area insist it's not a fluke. Junior QB Dwight Dasher, who won five of six starts as a redshirt frosh two years ago, has proven a quick study in the newly-installed spread offense of first-year o.c Tony Franklin, a spread "guru" and Hal Mumme disciple who got Troy's offense rolling in 2006-07 before encountering a career speed bump last year at Auburn. But back in the Belt, Franklin's offensive schemes have proven to be successful, and Dasher was at his cool best in the final minutes against the Terps, calmly leading the Blue Raiders downfield for PK Alan Gendreau's game winning 19-yard field goal as time expired. Regional sources believe this could be the most wide-open Sun Belt race in years, with the Blue Raiders in position to wrest the crown away from the holders from Troy.
Syracuse...The Orange were definitely out of sight and out of mind after Greg Robinson ran the program into the Carrier Dome's artificial turf the past few years. But new HC Doug Marrone seems to have rekindled the spirit at Syracuse, and the Orange are suddenly rewarding their backers with three covers in as many games to begin the year. Former local high school gridiron star Greg Paulus (Christian Brothers Academy), who spent the past four years playing point guard for Duke's basketball team, decided to give football another try and transfer back home with his one remaining year of college eligibility, is starting to get the hang of the QB thing again, completing 24 of 35 passes for 346 yards and a couple of TD passes in a wild 37-34 win over Northwestern. The Orange, which earlier took Minnesota into overtime and didn't get embarrassed at Penn State, has proven that it can at least compete with representative Big Ten non-conference competition (the Gophers, Nittany Lions, and Wildcats were all bowl teams last season), which should bode well for Marrone's troops when they begin Big East play.
UCLA...The Bruins are not winning many style points but are nonetheless off to their first 3-0 start since 2005 and are an unbeaten 2-0-1 vs. the number. Although the offense is not producing New Orleans Saints-like numbers, the defense is playing like the Baltimore Ravens, forcing big play after big play and helping out whenever possible. Already Bruin defensive backs have recorded eight interceptions (five by Rahim Morris and three by Alterraun Verner). Meanwhile, the special teams have been superb, with a long kick return and blocked FG for a TD highlighting the opening win over San Diego State, while PK Kai Forbath has emerged as a college version of the Bears' Robbie Gould by already connecting on nine field goals. Of course, the offense will eventually want to start scoring some touchdowns instead of field goals, and the attack will have to do at least a few more weeks without RS frosh QB Kevin Prince, out with a broken jaw. HC Rick Neuheisel surprised some onlookers by going back to Kevin Craft, last year's error-prone starter, vs. K-State instead of redshirt frosh Richard Brehaut, but Craft kept his mistakes to a minimum and allowed the defense to keep the Wildcats bottled up while the "O" made the most of its opportunities. It hasn't been pretty, but it's been effective nonetheless at UCLA.
Other teams to watch: Colorado State, Florida International, Northern Illinois, UCF, Utah State.