Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 16, 2017
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
We're at the midway point through December which means we've got three weeks left of regular season betting on the NFL. While betting football is always on our minds, most of us also have Christmas duties getting in the way as family rolls in, travel, dinners, gift giving, the kids are out of school and shopping drama at the malls.
While all the festivities are going on in the household, let's not forget about some crucial things happening in Week 15 action before wagering.
There's all kinds of quarterback changes this week and I'll discuss the increase or drop off in price with each change. Weather doesn't look to be a concern like last week, but both Pittsburgh and Cleveland have a 20 percent chance of precipitation with temperatures around 38 degrees by kickoff. Both those cities have some important games this week. The game of the week features the New England Patriots (-3, Even) at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Guess who the public likes?
We also have several teams in different situations. Some are still in the playoff race and "have to win" and others have had their players already set up Carribean vacations for early January as they can't wait for the season to end. Who wants it more? Who is hot right now and who is not?
And then we have the Browns once again going for a perfect season.
Sunday's game at Cleveland (0-13) against the Ravens (-7) will be the final home game for the fans to root in their beloved Browns. The Ravens (7-6) are vying for a playoff berth and "have to win" but at what point does the pressure of possibly handing the Browns their first win weigh on a team? It seems almost every week the Browns are on the verge of possibly winning and find new ways to implode. Last week it was a 21-7 home lead evaporating against the Packers, who not only tied the game and sent it into overtime, but also got the gift extra session touchdown to win by six points (27-21) and cover the spread (-3.5).
William Hill sports books reported having 85 percent of cash on the game and 78 percent of the tickets written siding with the Ravens laying the points. The Browns have covered the spread in only three games, but this should typically be a spot where the Ravens are put on upset alert. They "have to win" and the Browns are winless and desperate. But be reminded that they are all professionals and have jobs to retain next season, somewhere, and the film doesn't lie about how hard a player plays. Plus, the city of Cleveland hates the Ravens who stole their team and then went on to win two Super Bowls. There's a lot of storylines here. Another one is that sharp action around town is once again taking the Browns. Man, they've taken a beating on the Browns for the second straight season.
Speaking of the Green Bay Packers (7-6), here's a squad that should have a little extra zip in their step with quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning this week after going 3-5 behind back-up Brett Hundley. They are three-point underdogs at Carolina (9-4), with the number dropping as many books are at -3 EVEN. Watch what the South Point does here because they're the only Las Vegas book that use exclusively flat numbers and they're at 3-flat. Rodgers is the most valuable QB in the NFL because it's relative to the back-up. Right now, a rusty Rodgers is worth 7-points. The perfect form Rodgers from early in the season is worth 8.5 to 9-points. So far, the small parlay action has been on the Panthers who have won and covered five of their last six.
The other big QB change deals with the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) who play at the hapless New York Giants (2-11). Carson Wentz is out for the season, but all is not lost because Nick Foles is a capable back-up, a former NFL starter, which is why the drop off from Wentz is only worth about 4-points. The masses who have profited greatly from Philly posting a league-best 10-3 ATS record. William Hill books have seen 68 percent of its cash on this game taking the Giants. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook was as high as -8.5 on Monday and Wednesday they moved to -7.5 EVEN. Station Casinos has seen sharp action on the Giants while their smaller action has been on the Eagles.
Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor is probable to start at home against the Miami Dolphins (6-7). Back-up signal caller Nick Peterman got knocked out last week leaving veteran Joe Webb as a possibility this week. The drop off would have been about 4.5-points. The price showing around town varies from Bills -3 -120 to -3.5. The crazy thing about the Buffalo Bills (7-6) is they control their own destiny in the playoff race. Bills in the playoffs? Hard to believe, but they're right there.
The New York Jets (5_8) will be playing at New Orleans (9-4) without starter Josh McCown, who did an amazing job considering what he had to work with. Bryce Petty gets the start at quarterback and the drop off is about 3-points which had the Westgate open the Saints -14.5 for this week. It's up to -16 now, and it looks like Saints running back Alvin Kamara (concussion) is probable and he's worth close to a full point. The large number usually scares the masses off, but the Saints have 78 percent of the cash at William Hill.
The Houston Texans (4-9) will be without starting QB Tom Savage at Jacksonville (9-4) this week meaning T.J. Yates will get the start. The drop off is worth 1.5-points. Remember, Yates won a playoff game for the Texans following the 2011 season. The Westgate opened the Jaguars -10 and got as high as -11.5 until settling at -11.
The Cincinnati Bengals (5_8) benched Andy Dalton last week at home in a 33-7 loss to the Bears and there was some discussion that back-up A.J. McCarron could get the start at Minnesota (10-3) this week. Despite Dalton looking awful most of this season, he's still 3-points better than McCarron. With Dalton expected to start, the Westgate has seen the Vikings move from -10 to -11.
Here's a look at what Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says are his top sharp and public plays in order of risk:
Sharp
1) Bears
2) Browns
3) Texans
4) Giants
Public
1) Patriots
2) Ravens
3) Vikings
4) Eagles
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!