Vegas Money Moves - Week 16

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
December 23, 2017
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Wise guys have been betting the Browns (0-14) weekly just because their numbers didn't add up with the sports books. they were taking advantage of the luxury tax placed on the Browns opponents getting luxury tax that often was higher than 25 percent of what the proper line should be. The masses playing small money and parlays would simply take who ever the Browns were playing. The public has won 11 of 14 games this season by simply betting against the Browns.

This week is a little different, though. The Bears (4-10) at -6.5 is the raw rating number. There is no edge for the sharps, although they did grab +7 early in the week. The Bears would appear to be the perfect team for the Browns to finally win against. The weather conditions in Chicago are also favorable for the Browns because it puts both teams at a disadvantage. It's supposed to be 24 degrees with 10 mph winds and snow is a possibility.

Beyond the weather, the Bears have been awful lately and they've lost their last seven games when favored. They've lost six of their last seven and have covered the number only once in their last six. The total has dropped slightly from 38.5 to 38. Something to consider with the weather is that the Bears have stayed Under in 10 of 14 games this season, including their last four. The Browns average 14.8 ppg and the Bears average 16.7 ppg, and that's with mostly good weather.

The other team in Ohio has looked like the worst team in football the past two weeks. After playing extremely well three weeks ago in a 23-20 loss to the Steelers, the Bengals (5-9) decided to pack it in and tank. It started with a 33-7 home loss to the Bears and then a 34-7 loss at Minnesota. Marvin Lewis is quitting after the season and Andy Dalton looks like the worst QB in football, but sharp money likes them this week at home against the Lions (8-6). Detroit opened -4 and it's been bet down to -3.

"Yeah, we've been seeing sharp action on the Bengals and I can't figure out why," said William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich, noting the Bengals terrible play lately. "It's beyond me, I can't figure the NFL out. These are the same guys that have been lining up to bet the Browns every week."

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick also said he's seen sharp Bengals money comes through his bet windows. The Lions are fighting for a playoff berth.

The best game of the morning has the Falcons (8-6) visiting the Saints (10-4). New Orleans is a 6-point favorite with a few books like Station Casinos and CG Technology at -5.5. The Saints have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five while the Falcons have won five of their last six, including a 20-17 win at home against the Saints three weeks ago. The total is the highest of Week 16 at 52.5.

The Westgate SuperBook has odds to win the NFC South posted with the Saints -200, Falcons at 7/2 and Panthers at 9/2. The Panthers play at Atlanta next week while the Saints are at Tampa Bay. If thinking about the Bucs winning next week, consider that the Saints have beat everyone they were supposed to. Their only losses came as underdogs against the Vikings, Patriots, Rams and Falcons.

Broncos money has pushed the Westgate down from Redskins -3.5 down to -3 EVEN. The Broncos have won their last two games, including their first road win last week at Indianapolis. They are now 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.

The Chiefs (8-6) are fighting for their playoffs lives and get a visit from the Dolphins (6-8). The Chiefs opened -10 and have been bet up to -10.5.

There's no Sunday night game, but the feature afternoon game has the Seahawks (8-6) visiting Dallas (8-6) where there's still a glimmer of playoff hope for each team. They each need to win their last two games and have the Lions and Falcons experience misfortune.

"We just took a big bet on the Seahawks," Bogdanovich said Saturday afternoon. "I don't get that move, either. Could you bet the Seahawks right now?"

The Seahawks wager moved William Hill books from the Cowboys being 5-point favorites down to -4.5. The Cowboys have won their last three (2-0-1 ATS) and get RB Ezekiel Elliott back from a six-game suspension. Seattle has lost its last two games, the worst coming last week in a 42-7 home loss against the Rams.

"We're going to be buried on the Rams," said Bogdanovich about the Rams (10-4) one sided parlay action as 6.5-point road favorites at Tennessee (8-6). The Rams are fighting for a first round bye and the Titans have lost two straight and are trying to hang to one of the wild cards.

An intriguing match-up this week has the Jaguars (10-4) as 4-point favorites at San Francisco (4-10) with the 49ers riding a three game win streak. McCormick said sharp money is on the 49ers while the public is all over the Jaguars. Bogdanovich has seen the same thing, but his action will end up being a little different.

"We've got all those books up north and those bettors are fired about their 49ers being good again," said Bogdanovich who operates 107 sports books throughout Nevada.

The Jaguars have won seven of their last eight and have covered the spread in their last three. They've become a very public team lately.

The Patriots have dropped from 12.5-point home favorites down to -11.5 against the Bills who are attempting to hold on to the final wild card, but the large spread doesn't have the masses jumping on them like they usually do. But if the day ends with the Rams, Jaguars and Patriots all covering it's going to be a losing day for the house paying lots of 6-to-1 payouts on three-team parlays.