I don't know how many of you are familiar with system 240. It came out in the 1980's when there were only 28 teams in the NFL. It had very good logic and had a +60% and higher winning ratio. It is alot easier to figure today than it was back in the 80's. I'm not going to go through the calculations, but it breaks down as this: when you have two teams that are passing for more than 60 percent of their total yardage, and their defenses are giving up 60 percent or more yardage vs the pass, hence 4 times 60= 240. There are 3 games that meet this criteria this week.
I am already down with these, but I played the Dodgers tonight with them so If they screw me, it's my fault for throwing them in.
first play over 37 Bills/Steelers
2nd play over 38 Bears/Broncos
3rd play over 39 Seahawks/Chiefs
It will help to read the daily newspapers to see what the coach will do, but the majority of games will be their dress rehearsal games, and the players will be up for these. Mike
This system was a money maker for years but I think the oddsmaker's have adjusted to it over the years and what worked back then doesn't work as well these days in the NFL since the game now is so different to the game played back then. Still worth a look though I think.
Keep a eye on each days news and notes thread Vegas as I should have starter info from DonBest each day of NFLX play.
The game I like the most, is the first one at 37. The league as a whole has been averaging 35.4 ppg after 2 weeks. This was up from the first week of 34.25. The linesmakers over adjusted in the second week, and this week looks almost like normal season lines. This is due to the dress rehearsal games. There are six games with a total of 40 points or more. Factor in 11 new head coaches,of which only 2 games have both sides with new head coaches, and they put both totals at 40 and 39.5! If you look at Seattle, 79% of the opponents yards come from the air. Kansas City gives up 68% of their total defensive yards through the air. Seattle's offense uses 67% through the air, and Kansas City moves 63% through the air. Between the two, they have been in the red zone 10 times in two games and scoring at 60%. They have a 70/60 offensive/defensive pf/pa ratio after 2 games. It will be interesting this week.
The league as a whole has averaged 312.6 ypg and 17.7 points allowed offensively and defensively. 20,011 yards of offense in 32 games has translated into an average of 35.4 points per game. There was 1125 first downs with 1135 points, so that is very close to 1 point per first down. Bottom line is none of these teams want to risk injury by playing an extra quarter. I guess they will defy logic to get the game over with.
I wanted to add some to this 240 system, there are several total systems out there, so I compared the CAS+ or minus angle to these games, and only one, the Pittsburgh/Buffalo game agreed. I also looked at the YPP system 2, and it agreed with a total of 41.7 points. With only two games to analyze from each opponent, and with the coaches intention on playing the starters longer, you would think scoring would increase. It looks like that is what the oddsmakers think. There should be some good under plays this week, as totals in the 40's are all over the board.