vegasflyers challenge picks and mid-season NFL power rating breakdown

My top five have not been pretty in this first half going 17-23 against the spread. I am hoping to get 4 or 5 solid weeks in this second half.
week 9
Houston+9
Green Bay-10
Arizona+3
Miami+11
San Francisco-4

Here is a short evaluation of the first half using my power ratings.

Finding some consistancy in performances this year has been tough. I will go through a mid-season breakdown to see if we can understand what happened in the first half.
Arizona- only 2-5 using the power ratings. When they came off a loss, they out-performed the spread and the power-rating. They also seem to let down after a big win. They are coming off a disapointing loss and could out perform the power rating this week.
Atlanta- only 1-5-1 using the power ratings. They under performed against New England and Dallas on the road. the Chicago game could have went either way, as well as the Saints game. The other loss was when they came off the bye week to beat San Francisco.
Baltimore- only 2-5 using the power ratings. This team is extreme in one direction or the other. They tend to dominate weak opponents, but failed to live up to expectations against better teams such as New England and Minnesota. They did get a solid victory off a bye against Denver. The revenge factor should get them past Cincinnati this week. Cincinnati is coming off a bye.
Buffalo- 5-3 using the power ratings. All three losses were at home where they under-performed against New Orleans, Cleveland, and Houston.
Carolina- 1-5-1 using the power ratings. The first two losses were against worthy opponents in Philly and Dallas. They have out-performed the number in their last three power rating losses. This explains why the number is low. If the Saints go to 14.5, I would take a serious look at Carolina here.
Chicago- 3-4 using the power ratings. They under performed against Green Bay, Atlanta, and Cincinnati. They out-performed Detroit, which lost their QB in that game. The line is -3 against an Arizona team that should bounce back this week.
Cincinnati-- 4-3 using the power ratings. This team plays to the level of it's opponent. They had two let downs against Houston and Cleveland. I am still not sure how good this team is. With Baltimore wanting some revenge and another revenger in Pittsburgh to follow, these next two weeks will tell the tale. The bye week will help, but Baltimore got a confidence builder last week.
Cleveland- 4-4 using the power ratings. This is one of those inconsistant teams that managed to cover Cincinnati and Buffalo. The loss of Braylon Edwards and indecision on who to play at quarterback makes them un-predictable. There is only 3 winnable games left on their schedule. Five out of eight games have ended in an offensive output of 6 points or less. The defense has given up 27 points or more in 6 out of 8 games.
Dallas- 3-4 using the power ratings. All four losses came when Dallas out-performed the power ratings. Three out of four were at home. They just have to play even with the power rating this week to win.
Denver- 5-2 using the power ratings. They out-performed early and are coming off their first loss. This week will tell what they are made of. I look for a bounce back this week.
Detroit- 2-5 using the power ratings. This is another case of changing quarterbacks, and a little over rating since getting by Washington. All 5 losses were by under-performing. Seattle likes to roll these kind of teams.
Green Bay- 4-3 using the power ratings. All 3 losses were caused by Green Bay out-performing Chicago, St. Louis, and Detroit. Tampa Bay is up next and should fall right into line with those three.
Houston- 3-5 using the power ratings. Four of the losses were due to the Texans out-performing the power rating. The fifth loss could have been a win against Arizona. This is a double revenge game and could be closer than it looks.
Indianapolis- 5-2 using the power ratings. The two losses came on the road with small lines and out-performing both Miami and Arizona. This game will be a tough call.
Jacksonville- 3-4 using the power ratings. The Jaguars have under-performed in all four losses. All four losses were as a favorite. I would look at Kansas City here, but no Larry Johnson.
Kansas City- 5-1-1 using the power ratings. The only loss was an under-performance at home against San Diego. They are coming off a bye, and may need to put up 20 points to cover.
Miami- 4-3 using the power ratings. Two losses were early, under-performing against Indy, and San Diego. The last one was an out-performance against the Jets. Only the Saints have beat them by more than 10 points. This dog could bark on Sunday.
Minnesota- 5-3 using the power ratings. Two of three were out-performances. The under-performance was against Pittsburgh and that could have gone either way. They have a bye this week.
New England- 4-2-1 using the power ratings. The two losses were out-performances against Atlanta and Baltimore, both at home. They may like the fish and chips better in London.
New Orleans- 3-4 using the power ratings. The first 3 were out-performances. The last one was Atlanta in an under-performance, off a Monday Night. The Panthers are out-performing the power rating, but they may have trouble here as the Saints want to atone for losing both games last year. Double Revenge.
N.Y. Giants- 5-3 using the power ratings. After out-performing the first loss, they have under-performed against the Saints and Eagles. They face a desperate San Diego team, and have been bad against the pass. This may be another dog play.
N.Y. Jets- 4-4 using the power ratings. All four losses were under-performances. On a bye week.
Oakland- 5-3 using the power ratings. All three losses were under-performances. This is another team without consistancy. On a bye week.
Philadelphia- 4-2-1 using the power ratings. The two losses were out-performing the power rating. This is their 3rd straight division game. How did these guys lose to Oakland? Both teams capable of out-performing here.
Pittsburgh- 3-2-2 using the power ratings. They came off an under-performance against Cleveland and out-performed Minnesota. I am still not sold on that last one as Minnesota had them on the ropes and just self-destructed inside the 10 yard line. They are off a bye, but have not covered a spread on the road this year.
St. Louis- 4-4 using the power ratings. After under-performing in the first two losses, they have out-performed against Jacksonville and Detroit. There is no one left that week on the schedule, except Tennessee, but Fisher may still remember that Super Bowl loss. On a bye week.
San Diego- 4-2-1 using the power ratings. They out-performed in both power rating losses. They get the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos in the next three games, and the Giants may be the weakest of the three right now. Three of the Chargers four wins have been against Oakland and Kansas City. They are capable of staying close with the Giants.
San Francisco- 5-1-1 using the power ratings. Only loss here was against Atlanta who was coming off a bye week. They should be ready for Tennessee.
Seattle- 2-4-1 using the power ratings. This is another inconsistant team, but they like to pick on the patsies of the NFL and get their chance with Detroit. They have beat teams like this 69-0 at home.
Tampa Bay- 4-2-1 using the power ratings. The two losses were under-performances at home. They are another inconsistant team, but Green Bay has shown to beat teams like this soundly, and coming off a loss, should be ready. Tampa plans to start rookie Freeman at QB.
Tennessee- 4-2-1 using the power ratings. First loss was an under-performance. They over-performed off a bye week at home, and changed QB's with Vince Young. The road might be tougher for Vince, facing a 49er team that has dropped 3 in a row.
Washington- 5-2 using the power ratings. Both losses were under-performances. Only two wins against Tampa Bay and St. Louis. Plus side is the fact that they haven't lost by more than 6 points and are 2-1 ATS on the road. Have to look at this one hard as Atlanta has a division game up next and are off an emotional Monday Night game, while Washington is off a bye.