Visitor's Paradise In Playoffs
By Doug Upstone
News – Seattle wins outright in biggest NFL Wild Card upset ever
3DW Take- The Seahawks dramatic upset of defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans as 10-point underdogs is the largest outright winner of the modern era (1990 is when tournament went to 12 teams) since Jacksonville, as eight-point underdogs, bumped off Buffalo 30-27 in 1996. The impression from the start even after the Saints had built 17-7 lead was New Orleans was on emotional autopilot and Seattle played with a greater sense of urgency throughout the contest and truly deserved to win the game. Matt Hasselbeck was flawless for three quarters, but can he recreate the magic again in the Windy City against a rested Bears defense?
News – The "sheriff" shot down again
3DW Take- Once again Peyton Manning and Indianapolis failed in the postseason, leaving him with .500 record and his team 8-12 ATS. The biggest difference in the game was Manning and the Colts failure to go for the jugular. Trailing 14-10, Indianapolis bailed themselves out a couple of times on third down and seven or longer, with the run and short pass for unexpected first downs. Later in the drive on third and seven from the New York 15-yard line, instead of going for the lead, the Colts had bone-headed run call for a single yard and kicked field goal that still left them trailing with 4:50 to go in the game. That was the most significant play in the game to that point, as whoever made that call, forget what kind of defense the Jets were in, was satisfied to "hopefully" win, instead of "playing" for the win and settling for field goal attempt. Rex Ryan should send a "thank you" card to Colts coach Jim Caldwell for calling timeout after Indianapolis had grabbed the lead, since you know Ryan would have settled for 45-yard or more yard field goal and could blame the kicker for missing the try. The timeout gave Ryan time to reconsider all options and they called for pass to Braylon Edwards that made for much easier kick. It's off to New England for the Flyboys who are 4-3 SU and ATS the past six seasons they have made the playoffs, in Massachusetts.
News- Ravens eat Kansas City alive
3DW Take – It hasn't been too often you could say Baltimore had a brilliant offensive game plan this season. Lack of commitment to the running game and too many long balls by Joe Flacco, seemingly with no purpose, the Ravens were 12-4 almost in spite of themselves. However, for Kansas City, they were willing to throw the ball short on crossing patterns or drag routes early in the game and stayed committed to the run and ended up having the pigskin for over 41 minutes and ginormous first down differential of 26-8, in scalping Chiefs 30-7. A controlled approach at Pittsburgh this Saturday could work, where they are 4-9 and 8-4-1 ATS since 2000 in all games played (0-2 SU & ATS in playoffs).
News – Packers victimize Vick and Philly
3DW Take – After consecutive division wins over Washington and the first NFL football team in New Jersey, Philadelphia appeared poised for Super Bowl run in the later stages of November. The loss at Chicago was excusable off two NFC East tussles; however it was becoming increasingly apparent thru December the defense was a liability and if Michael Vick wasn't 100 percent, the offense would not be as potent. Green Bay beating the Eagles was not a shocker at this juncture of the season; the Packers are a more complete football on both sides of the ball. Impact Sports Solutions exclusive members read that Philadelphia's defense was second only to Seattle of the 12 playoff teams in number of times they permitted 18 or more points. The Packers have a rugged assignment (just like Baltimore), having to play on short week against a rested opponent on the road. Green Bay shouldn't be intimated however, since they lost 20-17 in the final minutes in Atlanta and actually outgained the Falcons 418-294.
News – Visitors continue to be best bet on NFL Wild Card weekend
3DW Take- Since 2004, the road team the first week of the playoffs are 15-13 and 16-11-1 ATS. This makes for good theatre in the first round, however points to the inadequacies of the system since all four teams road teams would have been at home based on better records or tie-breakers in head to head play.
The correct solution would be to scrap the eight divisions and make four. (East and South combine as does North and West for possible scenario) The division winners and the second place teams all have byes and the clubs with the third thru sixth best records in each conference enter the initial weekend of the playoffs with the higher seed playing at home.
News – College basketball's upsetting weekend
3DW Take – It was a bad weekend for Top 25 backers in college hoops as they collectively were 8-16 against the spread (Illinois did not play) with nine outright defeats. While this was noteworthy, what grabbed my attention was the Sunday action. Favorites were 15-6, yet only 7-13-1 ATS. With the advent of mostly conference play the rest of the regular season, it seemed to me that there was more upsets or underdogs covering than usual on this day of the week. Though I wasn't as correct as I anticipated (it's funny what reality shows compared to perception), it still was fairly close. In 2010, regular season conference favorites playing on Sunday's were 119-51 SU and mediocre 87-79-4 ATS. The atmosphere on Sunday games comes across differently on television or in person. The earlier starts often have more subdued crowds and with more games being played late afternoon or at night, for whatever reason the dynamics are different and worth keeping track of.