War Eagle Rising?
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Two years after allowing a late lead to get away in a BCS Championship Game loss to Florida State, I expect Auburn to be in the national title mix again in 2015.
Gus Malzahn's team had a magical 2013 campaign, knocking off previously-unbeaten Alabama in an epic Iron Bowl battle. The Tigers would finish 12-2 both straight up and against the spread. But facing a tougher schedule last season, AU finished just 8-5 and limped to a miserable 4-9 ATS mark.
The issues were on defense. In the last six SEC games and an Outback Bowl loss to Wisconsin, Auburn allowed 31 points or more every time out. The Tigers scored 44 at Alabama, led by double-digits late in the third quarter, but still dropped a 55-44 decision. They scored 38 at home against Texas A&M, yet still lost by three. Facing the Badgers in Tampa, AU went down 34-31 in overtime.
To address the defensive side of the ball, Malzahn fired defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson and replaced him with Will Muschamp, who saw his first head-coaching tenure at Florida end after gut-wrenching setbacks to LSU, South Carolina and Florida State.
At SEC Media Days on Monday, Malzahn called Muschamp the best defensive mind in all of football, including the NFL. We have zero argument with that assessment in this space and there's no doubt that Coach Boom's scheme will have the Tigers vastly improved on defense.
Another reason for improvement on this side of the ball is the return of Carl Lawson, who is probably the SEC's best pass rusher not named Myles Jarrett (Texas A&M). Lawson missed all of 2014 with an ACL tear.
AU returns eight starters on defense (not counting Lawson), including All-SEC candidates in LBs Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost. On the flip side, Auburn brings back only four starters.
However, I don't think anyone should anticipate Malzahn's offense struggling. Nick Marshall had a pair of outstanding seasons at quarterback, but I expect true junior Jeremy Johnson to be an upgrade. Johnson doesn't have the speed of Marshall, but he can also make things happen running the ball and his size makes it extremely difficult to bring him down.
Johnson has a canon for an arm and perhaps the SEC's best deep threat in Duke Williams, who had 45 receptions for 730 yards and five TDs last year. Williams posted those stats in just seven games before going down with a season-ending injury. Johnson and Williams could be first-team All-Americans.
The top RBs are gone, but Malzahn has brought in the nation's top juco RB in Jovon Robinson, who was impressive in the spring and is poised for a monster campaign.
5Dimes is currently showing Auburn with a win total of 8.5 shaded to the 'over' for a -140 price. I like to have a 1.5-game cushion, especially if being forced to lay a -140 number, between my prediction for a team and the actual win total. In other words, I'd only play this 'over' if I like Auburn to go 10-2.
Looking at the schedule, AU gets Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Mississippi State at home. The Tigers will be in revenge spots against both sets of Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide. The opener is against Louisville at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, and there are tough road tilts at LSU, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M.
I don't think U of L will have anything for Auburn, so I think it goes 4-0 in non-conference play. I'll confidently add wins in games vs. Mississippi State and at Kentucky, bringing us to six wins. Due to being at home on The Plains inside Jordan-Hare Stadium, I like AU over Georgia and Ole Miss though both contests will certainly be challenging.
In another revenge situation, I'm confident AU will go into College Station and prevail over the Aggies, who stunned the Tigers by a 41-38 count as 23-point road underdogs last year. That gets us to nine wins, which would be a winner.
Now certainly, there's a chance of Auburn falling at home to Ole Miss and UGA, but let's not forget Malzahn's 14-1 home record. Even if AU does slip in one of those games to drop the win tally to eight, we still have three games to consider.
Auburn will probably be a very short underdog at LSU win Week 3. My line for its game at Arkansas on Oct. 24 is a pick 'em. Those two road assignments could go either way, but I like AU's chances of winning at least one. There's also the Iron Bowl at home and I give AU a slight edge there.
I think 9-3 is a worst-case scenario for Auburn. I'm calling for an 11-1 regular-season record and an SEC West title, so I think bettors should hammer 'over' 8.5 wins.
I also really like a Game of the Year spread currently available at a number of offshore shops and the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas. I'm down on Mississippi State this year with the Bulldogs returning only seven total starters. I don't get how Auburn is only an eight-point home favorite to MSU. This number should certainly be double digits and I'm extremely bullish on AU laying that single-digit number.
With Malzahn and Muschamp calling the shots on offense and defense, Auburn will have dynamite play-calling on both sides of the ball. Assuming Johnson stays healthy, the sky is the limit for this team. The Tigers are my pick to win the SEC and they could win it all like in 2010.