What bettors need to know: Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
By Marc Lawrence
Hawaii Warriors at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-3.5)
A wild and wacky night is on tap when Louisiana Tech hosts Hawaii in a key WAC showdown on ESPN2 Wednesday.
Line moves
The game opened with the Bulldogs installed as 4-point favorites. Moderate money has come to the Warriors, moving the line down to 3.5.
MASH check
Hawaii comes into the fray a bit dinged up. On the offensive front, Starting OL Laupepa Letuli is out with a knee injury. He hopes to return next week against Fresno State. Wide receiver Jovante Taylor is listed as questionable. He has missed practice this week with a sprained ankle.
On the other side of the ball, LB Aaron Brown is out with a hamstring injury. He’s played with it the first three weeks of the season but has been forced to the sidelines this week. The good news is DE John Fonoti is expected back from a knee injury that has sidelined him the last two games. Fonoti was the leading tackler for Hawaii in 2008.
With a huge assist from the injury Gods, Louisiana Tech has managed to avoid the injury bug thus far this season.
Weather forecast
It should be a nice night in Ruston, Louisiana Wednesday evening. The forecast calls for clear skies with temperatures in the low to mid-50’s.
Breaking it down X's and O's style
Louisiana Tech has had problems moving the ball against lined teams this season. In two games against Auburn and Navy they compiled a total of 412 yards, scoring 27 points in a pair of SU and ATS losses.
The Bulldogs tuned up 11 days ago against Nicholls State in a 48-13 romp, outgaining the Colonels, 558-271.
Hawaii has opened the 2009 season against a trio of weak sisters, Central Arkansas, Washington State and UNLV. As a result the Warriors went 2-1 SU and 2-0 ATS, while winning the stats in all three contests.
Hawaii leads the nation in pass offense at 423 yards per game. The Warriors are also first in pass efficiency and sixth in total offense. Quarterback Greg Alexander, the nation's leader in total offense and pass efficiency has thrown a touchdown pass in 10 straight games.
The Warriors rank 97th in the nation in pass defense and 58th in pass-efficiency defense, allowing an average 251 yards per game in the air. The Bulldogs gain 228 Yards per game via the airways.
Louisiana Tech’s pass defense has been a sieve in two seasons under head coach Derek Dooley. They surrendered 273 passing yards per game in 2008 and 287 in 2009.
Through the first three games of the 2009 season, the Bulldogs have allowed just 156 yards passing per game. But that stat line is nothing more like fool's gold. The fact of the matter is the Bulldogs have played three run-dominated teams in Auburn, Navy and Nicholls State.
"Everything we've been doing for three weeks, we just say, 'Forget about it. It doesn't work anymore,'" Dooley said in the Monroe News Star. "Now we have to switch our personnel around, switch who is in the game, and change the whole scheme. ... It's not like they're having to learn a whole new defense, but everything's different. It's four-wide, it's throwing it every down."
Who goes bowling?
Both teams managed to land bowl bids in 2008.
The Warriors hosted the Hawaii Bowl for a fifth time in six years, the first under new coach Greg McMakin last season.
The Bulldogs defeated Northern Illinois in the Independence Bowl last year. It took head coach Dooley two seasons to turn La. Tech into a bowlers. He inherited a 3-10 team in 2006 and proceeded to win five and eight games in his first two years with the program.
Should both teams become bowl-eligible in 2009, the winner of tonight’s contest gains an inside track to a bowl bid this season.
The history book says
Hawaii has had its way with Louisiana Tech this decade, going 6-1 SU and ATS. However, the host in this series has brought home the bacon each of the last five games in a row.
Home teams on regular season games on Wednesdays are 22-13-1 ATS, including 16-4-1 when playing off a win.
Hawaii at La. Tech
By Brian Edwards
Casual college football fans don’t even pay attention to mid-week games like the ones we occasionally see on Tuesdays and Wednesdays as we get deeper into the season. Bettors, on the other hand, love the opportunity to get ahead of the books going into the weekend.
Gamblers get that chance Wednesday when Louisiana Tech (1-2 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) plays host to Hawaii (2-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) in Ruston, LA. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Bulldogs as 2½-point favorites. On Monday, the number was 3½ at most books, but it shot up to five by late Tuesday afternoon.
What prompted such a move? Probably the brutal travel situation this spot represents for Hawaii, which must go all the way to the southeast from Honolulu. The Warriors opened the season with a 25-20 home win over Central Arkansas in a non-lined game.
Then in Week 2, Greg McMackin’s squad ventured to Seattle where it captured a 38-20 victory at Washington State as a two-point road favorite. Following the win over the Cougars, Hawaii stayed on the West coast and prepped for a Week 3 showdown at UNLV.
The Rebels won a 34-33 decision at Sam Boyd Stadium, but the Warriors hooked up their backers as 7½-point road underdogs. After the loss to UNLV on Sep. 19, Hawaii returned home and had its open date this past weekend.
On Sunday, the Warriors practiced in the morning before flying to Dallas later that afternoon. They arrived in Dallas on Monday morning and held an afternoon practice at Trinity High School, according to the Honolulu Advertiser. Hawaii had a 45-minute workout Tuesday morning in Dallas before flying to Monroe, LA., which is a 30-minute drive to Ruston.
“This is an important ball game for us," McMackin told the Advertiser. "The whole nation has a chance to see what Warrior football is all about. I feel a big responsibility for us to represent the team, our staff and the people of Hawai'i."
Derek Dooley’s team began the year with back-to-back road losses to Auburn (37-13) and Navy (32-14). La. Tech bounced back in its home opener by spanking Nicholls St. by a 48-13 count in a non-lined affair.
Ross Jenkins led the Bulldogs to victory by completing 21-of-30 passes for 357 yards and two touchdowns without throwing an interception. Freshman running back Tyrone Duplessis ran for a team-high 71 yards on just eight carries. Daniel Porter and D.J. Morrow both had TD runs.
However, Porter has yet to get going this year. He was held to just 41 rushing yards on 13 totes vs. Nicholls St. For the season, Porter is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, gaining 134 rushing yards on 40 carries.
Porter garnered first-team All-WAC honors in 2008 when he rushed for 1,262 yards and nine touchdowns. The senior RB, who is diminutive in size but has blazing speed, averaged 5.2 YPC last season.
Porter will face a Hawaii run defense that’s giving up 126.7 rushing yards per game. This unit had only two returning starters and one of those, senior LB Brashton Satele, has been lost for the season with a torn labrum. On the other side of the ball, senior WR Malcolm Lane (35 catches, 613 yards and 6 TDs in ’08) is also done for the year due to academics. Lane is redshirting and expected to return next season.
Hawaii senior QB Greg Alexander has played outstanding in 2009. He is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,234 yards with a 9/2 touchdown-interception ratio. Alexander’s favorite target has been junior Greg Salas, who has 20 receptions for 479 yards and four touchdowns. Rodney Bradley has 18 catches for 381 and four TDs.
La. Tech will need to generate more pass rush this week to keep Alexander from getting into a rhythm. The Bulldogs have recorded just two sacks, the fewest amount of all WAC teams.
La. Tech safety Deon Young will move to cornerback this week against the Warriors’ pass-happy attack. Young is second in the WAC with two interceptions through three games.
Hawaii starting right tackle Laupepa Letuli, a senior, is “out” this week with a knee injury suffered in a weight training session last week.
When the Warriors came to Ruston early in the 2007 season, a campaign in which they went unbeaten to garner a Super Bowl bid, they were nearly beaten outright in a 45-44 win in overtime. The Bulldogs easily took the money as 28-point home underdogs versus Colt Brennan and Co.
In 2005, La. Tech stroked Hawaii 46-14 as a three-point home favorite. The Warriors won last year’s meeting 24-14 as 7½-point favorites.
Dooley has requested that fans greet the Warriors in the stands with a “Sea of Red” in the WAC opener for both schools. ESPN2 will have the telecast Wednesday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--La. Tech sophomore LB Adrien Cole is third in the WAC in tackles with 27.
--Hawaii has won six of the seven all-time meetings against La. Tech.
--New Mexico head coach Mike Locksley doesn’t look like head-coaching material right now. Locksley made a name for himself as Ron Zook’s recruiting coordinator at both Florida and Illinois. He is best known for his recruiting magic in the Washington D.C. area. However, since taking over the Lobos, he has been accused of sexual harassment and age defamation. And now this: AD Paul Krebs has reprimanded the first-year coach after an incident in which he punched one of his assistants and bloodied his lip. Worst of all, New Mexico is off to an 0-4 start.
--According to an LVSC alert sent early Tuesday evening, So. Miss RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown have been ruled “out” for Thursday’s game at UAB. The game was still off the board as of Tuesday night.
vegasinsider.com
NCAAF Week 5
Hawai'i is playing third game on mainland in last 18 days; they've won six of last seven games vs Louisiana Tech (5-2 vs spread) winning two of three in Ruston, with wins by 1-3 points. Warriors have nine takeaways and 966 passing yards in their two games vs D-I opponents. Tech is 0-2 vs D-I teams, losing 37-13 at Auburn (+12), 32-14 vs Navy (+7), game they led 14-0. Hawai'i covered five of last seven as road dog. Tech is 1-3 as a home favorite under Dooley. Since 2002, Tech is 8-26-1 vs spread in the game following a win.
Hawaii (2-1, 2-0 AT) at Louisiana Tech (1-2, 0-2 ATS)
Hawaii heads back to the mainland for the third straight game as it opens Western Athletic Conference play against the Bulldogs at Joe Aillet Stadium.
The Warriors opened up with victories over Central Arkansas (25-20 in a non-lined home game) and Washington State (38-20 as a 1½-point road chalk), then went to Las Vegas on Sept. 19 and fell 34-33 to UNLV, cashing as a seven-point road underdog. Hawaii held a 33-28 lead against UNLV before allowing a 15-yard touchdown pass with 36 seconds remaining, losing despite finishing with 505 total yards, including 477 passing yards by QB Greg Alexander.
Louisiana Tech kicked off 2009 with blowout road losses to Auburn (37-13 as a 13½-point underdog) and Navy (32-14 as a seven-point pup), but the Bulldogs returned home Sept. 19 and got back on track in a big way with a 48-13 rout of Division I-AA Nichols State in a non-lined contest. Still, since a 4-0 run to start last November, Louisiana Tech is just 1-3 (2-2 ATS) against Division I-A competition.
Hawaii has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and six of seven (5-2 ATS) against the Bulldogs this decade, including last year’s 24-14 home victory as a 7½-point favorite. The host is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes (5-0 ATS last five), with the SU winner going 6-1 ATS as well. Also, take away a pick-em game in 2003, and the favorite has cashed in five of the last six meetings.
The Warriors are averaging 32 points and 514.7 yards per game, with Alexander doing most of the damage (67 percent completion rate, 1,222 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs). Also, the defense has been respectable, allowing 24.7 points and 384 yards per contest (126.3 rushing ypg). Conversely, the Bulldogs have been outscored (27.3-25.0 ppg) and outgained (406.7-323.3 ypg) through their three games, with the defense getting gashed for 250.7 rushing ypg (4.7 yards per carry). La-Tech quarterback Ross Jenkins has completed 62 percent of his throws for 662 yards, three TDs and two INTs.
In addition to cashing in its first two lined games of 2009, Hawaii carries a slew of additional pointspread trends into tonight, including 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 9-3 in September, 7-2 coming off a straight-up loss, 5-1 as an underdog and 6-1 in WAC contests. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, but otherwise are in pointspread slumps of 5-13 after a bye week, 8-21 against teams with a winning record, 8-28-1 after a SU victory, 3-11 in September and 1-4 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
Thanks to a high-octane offense, the Warriors are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall, 21-10 in WAC play, 20-8-1 after a SU defeat and 4-0 as an underdog. Louisiana Tech has topped the total in four of six overall, four of five at home, three of four as a favorite and five of six in league action. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four series meetings between these schools, with the lone “under” coming last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tips and Trends
Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
Hawaii: The Warriors open Western Athletic Conference play having covered six of their last seven WAC contests last year, while also covering five of their past six away matchups. This marks Hawaii’s third straight game on the mainland. The Warriors were idle last week, though, following a 34-33 loss to UNLV. The winning touchdown occurred with 36 seconds left and dropped Hawaii’s record to 2-1. Led by quarterback Greg Alexander, the Warriors are averaging 33 points on the season. Alexander has passed for more than 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns. He has hit on 67 percent of his passes. Wide receivers Greg Salas and Rodney Bradley are each averaging more than 20 yards per catch. Hawaii has covered nine of its past 12 games. The Warriors, however, have lost eight of the past nine times to Louisiana Tech on the road. Hawaii won 24-14 against the Bulldogs last year at home.
The Warriors are 19-7-1 ATS when facing a team with a losing record.
The Over has cashed in 21 of Hawaii’s last 31 conference games.
Key Injuries - Defensive end Paipai Falemalu (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26
Louisiana Tech (-4.5, O/U 55.5): Louisiana Tech is looking to even its record at 2-2 in its WAC opener. The Bulldogs have managed just a combined 27 points in their last two games - road losses to Navy and Auburn - after opening with a 48-13 victory against Nicholls State. The Bulldogs are young with just 10 seniors. One of those seniors, Daniel Porter, is bidding to become the school’s all-time leading rusher but has been held to just 134 yards rushing this season. Quarterback Ross Jenkins has tried to take up the slack throwing for 220 yards per game as opposing teams stack the line keying on Porter. The Bulldogs are surrendering more than 400 yards per game. They haven’t faced a foe yet that passes as much as Hawaii. The Bulldogs, like the Warriors, were idle last week. Louisiana Tech is 5-13 against the spread following a bye week.
The Over is 5-1 in the Bulldogs’ last six home contests.
Louisiana Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games in September.
Key Injuries - Running back D.J. Morrow (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (OVER - Total of the Day)