Wednesday Night Football

Ball State at Central Michigan
By Judd Hall

It’s been 12 years since Ball State was able to stand as the top team in the Mid-American Conference. A lot has changed in the league since that time; the advent of the MAC East and West divisions to go along with the subsequent championship game, while Central Florida and Marshall came and went for the greener pastures of Conference USA.

Now the Cardinals can make it into the MAC title game for the first time by winning their final two games of the season. But the first thing they must do is get past the Chippewas in chilly Mount Pleasant, Michigan. ESPN2 will cover this contest at 7:00 p.m. EST.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants have opened the line with the Cards as five-point road favorites with a total of 58. You can get Central Michigan to win outright for a plus-180 return (wager $100 to win $180).

Ball State has been a quality wager for bettors this season as they are 7-2 against the spread this season. However, the Cards have gone 1-2 ATS in their last three games.

A big reason for BSU’s success this season is the play of quarterback Nate Davis. The junior gunslinger is 17th in the nation in total offense by averaging 278.2 yards per game this season. And he’s thrown 20 touchdowns to just six interceptions in his 10 starts this year.

The Cardinals needed just Davis’ arm in their 31-16 victory over Miami, OH on Nov. 11. He completed 17 of 24 passes for 289 yards with one touchdown and an interception that wasn’t capitalized upon by the Redhawks.

As far as the ground game for Ball State, MiQuale Lewis was the man of the night against the ‘Hawks. The junior out of Fort Wayne, Indiana ran 26 times for 165 yards and a pair of scores. He also caught a pair of passes for 51 yards against Miami, OH.

While the running attack is on solid footing, the receiving corps took a major hit when senior wide out Dante Love injured his spinal chord against Indiana on Sept. 20. Luckily for Love, he was able to walk again. And luckily for the Cards, they found a replacement on the field in fellow senior receiver Louis Johnson.

The native of Muncie, Indiana may have missed Ball State’s last game, but has caught 14 passes for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his last four starts. Given the small amount of catches to yardage, you can tell Johnson has been a solid deep target for Davis; he caught passes for gains of 33, 25, 42, 34, and 22 yards in his last appearance against Northern Illinois on Nov. 5.

Central Michigan isn’t getting as much publicity about it, but they have quietly won six straight tilts after losing at Purdue on Sept. 20. That includes last week’s thrilling 33-30 overtime victory at Northern Illinois.

The Chippewas’ offense is a simple one to understand as it runs through Dan LeFevour. CMU’s senior signal caller is 15th amongst all college players with 282.3 yards of total offense per game. LeFevour completed 19 of 26 passes for 189 yards and two scores, while running 29 times for another 121 yards and two more scores last Wednesday. He’s also kept from making mistakes recently by not throwing an interception in his last four starts.

You don’t have to tell the Cardinals how difficult LeFevour is to bring down. They’ve witnessed it first hand just last year when he accumulated 506 total yards and six touchdowns against Ball State.

This year, he won’t have to worry about doing it all on his own. That’s because Ontario Sneed has taken control of the Chips’ backfield this season with 450 yards and six scores. Sneed ran 11 times last week for 60 yards and caught two balls for another 37 yards and a touchdown.

The ‘over’ has hit in three of the Chippewas’ last four games. Central Michigan has scored 30 or more points in three of its past four contests as well. The ‘over’ is 5-4 for the season for CMU, but the ‘under’ is 2-1 on home turf.

Ball State has seen the ‘under’ go on a 4-1 run during its last five fixtures. The ‘under’ has also cashed in the Cardinals’ last three road games.

Central Michigan has dominated the recent series with the Cards, going 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

The Cardinals have been a solid bet when favored on the road as evidenced by their 7-1 record SU and 5-3 ATS since 2003. The Chippewas haven’t been that good when installed as home ‘dogs with a 2-6 SU and 3-3-1 ATS since the 2003 season.

vegasinsider.com

(14) Ball State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) at Central Michigan (8-2, 6-3 ATS)

Ball State, one of five remaining unbeaten teams in Division I-A, hits the road for a key Mid-American Conference clash against surging Central Michigan, with both teams sporting 6-0 SU marks in league play.

The Cardinals remained perfect by pulling away from Miami (Ohio) 31-16 last Tuesday night, narrowly failing to cash as a healthy 17½-point chalk, their second ATS setback in the last three games. Ball State was up by just four (17-13) at halftime but allowed only a field goal in the second half, and RB MiQuale Lewis (26 carries, 165 yards) had a 1-yard TD run in the third quarter and another 1-yard score in the fourth. The Cards finished with a 484-330 edge in total yards.

The Chippewas, playing their third straight road game, topped Northern Illinois 33-30 in overtime on Wednesday last week as a four-point road underdog for their sixth straight victory (4-2 ATS). Central Michigan blew a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead, getting shut out in the final frame as the Huskies forced OT, but the Chippewas got an INT to open the extra session, then won on Andrew Aguila’s 40-yard field goal. QB Dan LeFevour (19 of 26, 188 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient in the air, and he also ran for 121 yards and two more TDs.

Both squads are 4-2 ATS in MAC play and tied atop the West Division standings, but just a half-game ahead of Western Michigan.

Ball State features the nation’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (15.4 points per game allowed), and the offense ranks 12th in total offense (461 yards per game) and 15th in scoring (37.6 ppg). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has the 14th-rated passing attack (279.1).

Central Michigan is on streaks of 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in this rivalry, and going back 11 years, the Chips are 8-3 ATS against Ball State. The road team, however, is on a 5-2 ATS surge, which includes CMU’s 58-38 rout at Ball State last year as a 12-point road underdog. In the victory, the Chips nearly doubled the Cardinals in total offense, finishing with a 658-369 yardage edge.

Along with their season-long 7-2 ATS mark, the Cardinals are on pointspread streaks of 16-5 on the road (4-1 this year), 14-3 against winning teams, 9-4 in November and 22-10 in the MAC. The Chippewas are also on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 30-10-3 overall, 14-2-1 at home (2-1 this year), 21-5-3 inside the MAC and 9-3 against winning teams.

The under for Ball State is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in November and 7-3 on the road (3-0 last three), but the over for Central Michigan is on streaks of 13-5 overall (5-4 this year), 5-0 in November and 6-0 against winning teams. The over is also 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Gametimepicks.com

What bettors need to know: Ball St. at Central Michigan
By MATT SEVERANCE

Ball State at Central Michigan (+7, 54.5)

All-time series

CMU leads 21-18-1 and has won four in a row, including last year’s 58-38 victory when the Chips rolled to a school-record 658 yards of offense behind QB Dan LeFevour’s 506 total yards.

"It was embarrassing the way they came out and dominated us," Ball State center Dan Gerberry told reporters. "This week is big for us, and me personally. ... They've beaten the crap out of us the last four years I've been here.”

What’s at stake

The calendar says the Mid-American Conference title game is Dec. 5, but disregard that. This is the MAC’s Super Bowl. CMU and Ball State are the only two unbeaten teams in the conference.

For Central Michigan, it’s easy: Win Wednesday and the Chips claim their third consecutive MAC West title (they would hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Ball State and Western Michigan). However, they are 1-8 all-time against ranked teams, with the lone win coming in 1991. This is CMU’s second home game ever against a ranked foe.

The stakes are even higher for Ball State, which can’t afford a loss if it has any BCS bowl aspirations. The Cardinals are currently ranked No. 17 in the BCS standings and will need some help to get into the top 12. Even if Ball State beats CMU, it must still defeat a very good Western Michigan team next Tuesday to claim the West title.

No matter which team wins the West, it will be a heavy favorite over the East champ in the conference championship game.

Weather likely a big factor

Snow is expected, with a low of 25 degrees. To prepare for the elements, CMU has practiced outside instead of in its indoor practice facility.

"The players have to be ready for it," CMU coach Butch Jones said this week. "Wind could be a factor too. It may affect the passing game a little bit. We have to have the ability to run the ball and stop the run defensively.”

If the game hinges on the ground games, BSU would seem to have an advantage. RB MiQuale Lewis, the nation’s sixth-leading rusher, has eight 100-yard games on the season and a rushing touchdown in nine consecutive contests. He has totaled 1,273 yards and 17 TDs in 2008, but will be facing CMU for the first time ever after being was injured the previous two years.

CMU is not the prodigious running team that Ball State is, with QB LeFevour leading the team with 450 yards on the ground. But LeFevour is coming off his highest rushing total of the season, 121 yards against Northern Illinois.

Passing the torch

Central’s LeFevour is the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year, and he has had a good season, ranking 24th in the country in pass efficiency and completing 171 of 254 passes for, 1,808 yards and 13 TDs despite missing two games with injury.

Ball State’s Nate Davis is the odds-on favorite to take that MAC Offensive Player of the Year honor away this year. Davis is eighth in Division I in passing efficiency and has completed 189 of 277 passes for 2,647 yards.

Davis has thrown at least one TD pass in 26 of the past 27 games and is no slouch as a runner, gaining 135 yards while scoring three TDs on the ground this season.

By the numbers

CMU has won six games in a row, the school’s longest winning streak since 1994. It is averaging more than 30 points per game in that stretch. Five of CMU's 10 games this season have been decided by three points or less, with the Chippewas going 5-0 in those games.

While Ball State (10-0 for the first time) has outscored its opponents by an average of 22.2 points per game, CMU has outscored its opponents by 0.5 points per game (that is a bit distorted by a 56-17 loss at Georgia).

Ball State's closest game was a 12-point win against Navy, while seven of CMU’s eight wins are by 10 points or less.

Both teams are 3-0 against common opponents. Central Michigan beat Toledo 24-23, Northern Illinois 33-30 in overtime and Indiana 37-34. Ball State beat Toledo 31-0, Northern Illinois 45-14 and Indiana 42-20.

Ball State’s defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games and eight times this season. CMU’s defense, meanwhile, leads the MAC in sacks with 27 but is only 99th in the country in total defense.

BSU leads the MAC in scoring offense (37.6 ppg), scoring defense (15.4 ppg), total offense (461.0 ypg), pass efficiency (168.5), pass efficiency defense (106.2) and third-down conversions (51.9 pct.). The Cardinals are the least-penalized team and least-sacked team in the conference.

MAC title on the line when Ball St. faces Central Michigan
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

A record-setting quarterback and a quick-strike offense have sent No. 14 Ball State into uncharted territory. The Cardinals are 10-0 for the first time in school history, all their victories by double digits.

Now comes the hard part.

Ball State (6-0) faces its toughest test of the season Wednesday night, a road game against Central Michigan that could determine the Mid-American Conference's Western Division title.

''It's a game everybody's been focused on for a long time,'' Ball State coach Brady Hoke said. ''It's a challenge going up there, it'll be a hostile environment. It's going to be a great challenge for us.''

The Cardinals can earn at least of share of the division crown with a victory.

CMU (8-2, 6-0) can earn its third straight MAC West championship and a berth in the Dec. 5 league title game with a victory.

''When you play into November and you control your own destiny, that's big,'' Central Michigan coach Butch Jones said.

Ball State also controls its own destiny. Beat Central Michigan, then Western Michigan on Nov. 25 and its off to the MAC championship game for the Cardinals.

Ball State has the league's most potent offense, led by junior quarterback Nate Davis. He is the school's career leader in touchdown passes (68) and yards passing (8,289).

Ball State averages 37.6 points per game and has topped 40 points five times, including in a 42-20 win at Indiana.

''When you go against an explosive offense such as Ball State, you can't give them a short field,'' Jones said.

Davis resembles Central Michigan junior quarterback Dan LeFevour, who also holds school records in TD passes (66) and yards passing (8,491).

He is also the first quarterback in Central Michigan history to top 2,000 yards in rushing (2,093).

Hoke knows well what LeFevour can do. The junior had five touchdown passes and 506 yards of total offense in a 58-38 victory against Ball State last year.

''Multiple challenges,'' Hoke said. ''When we look at him and his feet and his feel for the pocket and running the football he manages the offense as well as anybody in the league. He makes the right decisions.''

Despite the talented quarterbacks, Hoke said this game will come down to smash-mouth football.

''Your front seven on defense and your front offensively is where this game is going to be won,'' Hoke said.

Ball State running back MiQuale Lewis has eight 100-yard rushing games this season and had a career-high 166 yards in the win at Indiana.

''We want to be able to run the football,'' Hoke said. ''You want to be able to establish the running game which enables us to do the rest of the things we want do.''

Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas

A trip to the MAC Championship game is on the line when Central Michigan Chippewas (8-2, 6-0 MAC, 6-3 ATS) host undefeated Ball State Cardinals (10-0, 6-0 MAC, 7-2 ATS) on Wednesday. Two-time defending league champion Chips are coming off a 33-30 overtime win over NIU as 4 point road dogs and are on a six-game winning streak cashing four of the contests (4-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Ball State enters off a 31-16 thrashing of Miami (OH) Redhawks but failed to cover the 17.5-point spread marking just the second non-cover of the season (7-2 ATS). Chips 4-0 (2-1 ATS) at home this season, 15-5 (14-3-1 ATS) the past twenty in front of the home crowd have won the last four (3-1 ATS) meetings and are 6-6 the past twelve in the series with a profitable 8-4 mark at the betting window. Other trends of note: Cardinals are 7-2 ATS L3Y's when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, 14-4 ATS L3Y's in road games. Chips are 8-1 ATS playing a team with a winning record, 15-5 ATS in conference play.

Monster MAC Football Matchup
Doug Upstone

Ball State took a closer step to completing a perfect season, with the biggest test to date coming this week. For the first time ever, the Muncie, IN University is 10-0 (6-2-1 ATS) matching the number of wins they had in 1978 (10-1). Their only previous perfect season came in 1949, when they played eight games. Quarterback Nate Davis is a special performer, but the addition of running back MiQuale Lewis has added a real punch to offensive balance. When Davis’ favorite target Dante Love went down, there was wonderment if the passing game would still be as potent. Louis Johnson upped his game and he and Davis clicked immediately.

Immediately after the Cardinals won 31-16 at Miami last Tuesday, they could finally turn their attention to a showdown at Central Michigan for a game that could determine the Mid-American Conference West champion. "Every week we've focused on the task at hand, which was the next team, but underneath it all Central Michigan has been lurking," Cardinals linebacker Bryant Haines said. The Cardinals will come into this contest 12-6 ATS when the line is single digits in MAC matchups.

To Ball State's credit, they've kept themselves focused on that "next game" mentality despite the distractions that come with being unbeaten this late in the season. The Cardinals have been nationally ranked for more than a month, and they are among the chief contenders from non-BCS conferences for a bid to a BCS bowl game.

Ball State is in the midst of one of the most amazing streaks in all of college football. The Cardinals haven't committed a penalty in three straight games, and they lead the nation in fewest penalties this year with 26. The Cardinals have committed three penalties or fewer six times. This type of attention to detail helps explain 14-4 ATS record in road games over the last three seasons.

Central Michigan’s disappearing act almost cost them, as they literally came out of a fog to set this outstanding matchup. The Chippewas had built a 30-6 lead as the fog rolled into Huskies Stadium at Northern Illinois. Central Michigan (8-2, 6-3 ATS) must have been mesmerized by the unusual atmosphere and stopped playing. NIU came all the way back and almost had game winning touchdown in regulation. CMU survived with interception and field goal in win in overtime 33-30.

"We made some mistakes that will get corrected, but with all the adversity we had in the second half, no one stopped believing," said Central Michigan coach Butch Jones. "Every game has been like this, but it shapes you, it molds you. Sometimes a win like this is better than winning big because our kids have been tested." Central Michigan is 10-1 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.

The Chippewas have won six straight (4-2 ATS) and their field general is coming off his best game of the season. Quarterback Dan LeFevour proved he is an effective passer and agile runner, throwing for 189 yards and two scores while adding a season-high 121 rushing yards and two TDs. The Chippewas are 10-2 against the spread at Kelly/Shorts Stadium since LeFevour hit the field in first game in 2006.

Betmania.com has Ball State as seven-point road favorite with a total of 54.5. In theory, the oddsmakers number appear off, since the Cardinals have lost four in a row to Central Michigan, including last year, the most humiliating, falling 58-38 at home as 13-point favorites. However, Davis and Ball State average 266.8 yards passing, at 9.5 per attempt (4th in the country) and will be matched against the MAC’s worst pass defense in the Chippewas, who rank 114th in the nation, surrendering 273.7 yards per outing. Throw that in the blender with the Cardinals a spectacular 18-3 ATS on the road since 2005, with a 14-7 straight up record and line makes more sense.

Central Michigan will give it their best shot as the two-time defending conference champions and owns a 13-4-1 ATS mark at home the last four years. The added edge of being listed as a home underdog against an unbeaten club, you can’t help but think this is a very good squad who returns to Mt. Pleasant after sweeping three consecutive road games.

When all these games kick in is when I re-think if I really want a BCS playoff system or not