Savannah Sports
3 Units Philadelphia -3.5
Nick Bogdanovich
Medium Central Mich +7
Ron Raymond
5* Kings /Hornets Over 195.5
5* Vancouver Canucks +120
Dr Bob
Unbeaten Ball State will get their toughest remaining test tonight in Mt. Pleasant against a Chippewas team that is pretty good offensively (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but lacking on the defensive side of the ball (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Ball State is an offensive juggernaut that has averaged 7.2 yppl this season thanks the great passing of Nate Davis (9.0 yards per pass play) and the running of MiQuale Lewis (1273 yards at 5.9 ypr) and they should have no trouble scoring at will in this game while their solid defense (5.2 yppl allowed) keeps the Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas in check. My math model actually gives Ball State a 54% chance of covering the spread at -7 points but the situational analysis is pointing strongly the other way. Ball State applies to a very negative 5-41 ATS late season letdown situation while Central Michigan applies to a 103-46-2 ATS home momentum situation and a 55-19-2 ATS home underdog angle. The technical analysis is very strongly in favor of Central Michigan and I'll lean with the Chippewas plus the points despite my math model favoring Ball State. I'll also lean with the Over in this game.
Big Al
1* Wake Forest
1* Virginia
1* Villanova
Scoot Spreitzer
5* Hammer
Virginia -7
Rocketman
Ball State +15
Atlanta Hawks -7.5
Alex Smart
Buffalo Sabres
Mike Rose
UNC-Wilmington
LT Profits
SA Spurs
JB Sports
Detroit Pistons
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
5 STAR SELECTION
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +7 over Northern Illinois
Mid-American Conference West rivals meet up Wednesday night, as the unbeaten Cardinals travel to take on the 2-time defending MAC champion Chippewas.
Last week Ball State beat Miami, Ohio, 31-16 improving to a perfect 10-0 record. Central Michigan beat Northern Illinois in overtime 33-30 last week, improving to an 8-2 record, with their only losses on the season coming against BCS teams Purdue and Georgia.
This game will go a long ways in determining the West representative in this year’s MAC Championship Game. While the Cardinals have been very impressive this season, the Chippewas continue to be under-rated, especially considering they have won a lot of big games over the past couple of seasons.
Meanwhile, this is unfamiliar territory for Ball State and we think it’s unlikely they will simply show up at Central Michigan and dominate a very good team that has given them fits. The Cardinals are 0-3 SU & ATS vs. Central Michigan and 0-4 SU last 4 years vs. the Chippewas. Ball State is also 0-8 ATS (-12 ppg) as a favorite of more than 6 points seeking revenge for a SU loss from the previous season.
There will be a lot of pressure on the Cardinals, favored on the road against Central Michigan under the primetime lights. In non-Saturday games, unbeaten road favorites have actually struggled greatly under the conditions described by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours. Ball State already qualified for this system last week in their game at Miami, Ohio. They failed to cover the spread in that non-Saturday road game, and they now qualify again for this POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 6 on, play AGAINST a non-Saturday undefeated road favorite with 5+ days rest vs. an opponent not off a favorite SU & ATS win allowing less than 15 points.
Since 1995, these undefeated visitors are 0-13 ATS, failing to cover the spread by an incredible 17 points per game on average.
Meanwhile, we have numerous reasons to back the home team here as well.
First, we like to play ON an underdog getting between a FG & TD of points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation.
If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public. Indeed, our Power Ratings indicate this game is likely to be decided by a FG or less, so the line value is with the home team getting a TD from the oddsmakers.
Secondly, we look to play ON a power team in a “must-win” situation to qualify for a conference championship or bowl game if the team’s fundamental character has not changed from its better days.
If a team is in the “must-win” situation due to an injury or 2, replacement players can often play over their heads in big games and veterans will hunker down and take up the slack.
If a team stands to be eliminated because a conference rival has improved, the squad in the “must win” situation can often set their jaws, dig in their heels, and play their best.
Ultimately, the most important factor is whether the team sincerely believes they belong in the postseason. A Central Michigan team that has won the last 2 MAC West Division and Championship Games with a great QB as their leader certainly has every reason to believe in themselves, and we expect to see their best game of the season Wednesday night.
The Chippewas have been very strong when getting points, as they are 5-0 ATS as an underdog of less than 17 points since last year, and an amazing 11-2 SU (+8.8 ppg) & 10-0-3 ATS (+9.9 ppg) in all games with a line between +17 and -4, with the only 2 SU losses coming against Purdue of the Big 10. Being experienced and having done well in big games, it’s no surprise that they are also 6-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) in home/neutral site non-Saturday games.
Central Michigan qualifies for numerous NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS, all as the “PLAY ON” team, demonstrating what a great spot they are in here.
After an upset win, teams back in the role of underdog have been quite strong at home in non-Saturday games under the conditions described. Specifically:
In Games 2-11, play ON a non-Saturday home underdog of 23 points or less off an underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent not off a conference favorite SU & ATS win.
Over the past 10+ seasons, these underdogs are not only 10-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 16 ppg on average, but have won all 10 games outright!
Non-Saturday underdogs have also been very tough in defending their turf against revenge-minded foes. This POWER SYSTEM qualifying CMU recommends:
Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog of more than 4 points vs. an opponent seeking revenge for a conference home favorite SU loss and not off a conference home favorite SU loss.
Just since 2006, these teams are 10-0 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average, including Miami, Ohio’s spread win over Ball State just last week.
Finally, playing a good game at tough Northern Illinois is not an easy task; however, teams able to play well there, as the Chippewas did last week with their OT win, have gained confidence for another strong outing. This is documented by a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a team (not a favorite of 12+ points) off an ATS win at Northern Illinois in its last game and not a conference SU win and ATS win of more than 12 points before that.
These teams are an eye-popping 17-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 13 ppg on average, including 2-0 ATS this season.
The Cardinals will absolutely have their hands full at Central Michigan, as their perfect season will be in jeopardy. The verteran Chippewas figure to keep this game close the whole way and we give them a great shot at pulling off the upset, perhaps in overtime.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33 BALL STATE 30 (OT)
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Virginia -7.5
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200* Central Michigan
100* Ball State / Central Michigan Over
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20*San Antonio
Fairway Jay
Cent Mich +7