Scoot Spreitzer
5* Hammer
Virginia -7
Ball State
Mike Lineback
5* Nuggets
4.5 * Clippers
4* Cavs
Any chance will have Great lake sport and Accu pick ?
Thank you
Dave Cokin
C Michigan
Brandon Lang
10 Dime Ball St./C Michigan Over
Free Play CMU
LENNY STEVENS
10* Philadelphia 76ers
10* Wake Forest
RAS
1 unit Murray St/ Arkansas St. Under 137
NBA
Fast Break
3* Toronto
Round Ball
3* Denver
3* Utah
John Ryan
Vancouver Canucks
PPP
College Baskets
4% Virginia -7.5
3% Wake 21.5
3% Villanova -16
NBA
4% Cleve +3
3% Phila -3
3% Denver +1
3% Utah -10
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Central Michigan – AiS shows an 85% probability that Central Michigan will lose this game by 8 or fewer points and a also has a 48% probability of winning the game. I would not recommend to add a money line bet to the 7* amount, but rather reducing it to 6* with the line and 2* on the money line – if you are looking for a variation to play. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 59-27 for 69% since 1997. Play against a road team off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is undefeated on the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 54-23 ATS for 70% since 1992. Play on a home team after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is the third system reinforcing the graded play that has gone 68-26 ATS for 72% since 2002. Play on a home team after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins and is now playing in a conference game. Central Michigan is a series of strong roles for this upset bid. AiS shows an 87% probability that CMU will score 28 or more points. Note that they are a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a top-level team sporting a win percentage of > 75% since 1992. Take Central Michigan.
DOC
NBA GAME OF WEEK
5-Unit NBA Game of the Week - Take Detroit Over Cleveland
The Cavs have quickly become the darlings of the oddsmakers and the public. And for the most part it is deserved – they have won eight straight games and covered in four of the last five. However, five of those wins came at home and this will be the biggest test they have faces on the road as their previous opponents during that streak were New Jersey, Chicago and Dallas. In fact, this will be their toughest game since the winning streak started regardless of venue. Detroit is 7-3 this season and this will be just their fourth home game of the season. Cleveland is coming in on a back-to-back while the Pistons have had two nights of rest. Detroit has won and covered three of the last four meetings between these two teams and they have absolutely dominated the last two meetings in Detroit. The Cavs have averaged only 72 points on offense in their last two meetings in Detroit. This is a very public line and we think we are getting a good 3-4 points of value here.
3 Unit Play. Take Central Michigan over Ball State
It end’s tonight! The Cardinals enter this game with an undefeated record but their lack of playing anybody good will finally catch up with them. The Chippewas challenged themselves during the non-conference portion of the season and that has prepaid them for the MAC. They are 6-0 in conference play and like Ball State control their own destiny for a chance to play in the Motor City Bowl. Central Michigan has won the last four games in this series by an average of 10 points. They hung 58 points on the Cardinals last season and without star WR Dante Love, the Cardinals lack the big play guy to put them over the top. Play the homer and watch your money grow.
BEN BURNS
I'm playing on the Heat and Raptors to finish UNDER the total. These teams just played a high-scoring game against each other on the weekend. That was at Toronto though where the Raptors have averaged 102 points per game and where the 'over' is now 4-0 on the season. Toronto hasn't scored nearly as many points on the road. In fact, they've only averaged 90.7 points and have seen the UNDER go 4-1 in five road games. Tonight, they'll take on a revenge-minded Miami squad which is allowing just 87 points per game at home. The Heat have seen three of five home game stay below the total and seven of 11 overall. Sunday's result notwithstanding, the UNDER is a profitable 8-2-1 the last 11 series meetings overall. Lastly, the Heat are coming off a strong defensive performance last night, holding the Wizards to 87 points at Washington in a game that stayed below the total by double-digits. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at a lucrative 13-2 the last 15 times that the Heat played the second of back to back games, including 2-0 already this season. Look for another well-played defensive affair here with the final score proving lower than most are expecting. *blue chip
I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. Having recorded three straight victories, the 76ers may be patting themselves on the back a bit here and it will be easy to overlook the lowly T-Wolves. That will be a mistake though. For starters, the 76ers are a money-burning 6-11-1 ATS since 2006 when having won their previous three games. During the same stretch the 76ers have just 13 wins in 34 tries when coming off a double-digit victory. Despite their recent win streak, the note that the 76ers are still below 500 (2-3) on the road this season, getting outscored by a 97.4-91.8 margin in those games. Additionally, the T-Wolves played the 76ers very tough in both games last year. The T-Wolves were 2-0 against the number in those games. The first one was at Philadelphia and the 76ers won by only four points. The T-Wolves bounced back in a big way in the rematch. Listed as 3-point home underdogs, they won outright by a score of 104-88. Most people weren't giving the T-Wolves much of a chance for that game, as they had lost five straight coming in. This year, the T-Wolves have lost eight straight and most aren't giving them much of a chance once again. A closer look shows that they've been extremely competitive in those eigth games though, as the losses have come by an average of less than six points. In fact, despite the skid, Minnesota has gone 3-1 ATS its last four. The T-Wolves are getting excellent production from Al Jefferson, who is averaging 22.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Look for Jefferson to get some help from his supporting cast tonight as the T-Wolves rise to the occasion and upset the 76ers here for the second year in a row. *Non-Conference GOW
I'm taking the points with TCU. Early results have created excellent value with the home underdog here. The Horned Frogs come in at 1-2 while the Huskers come in a 1-0. Let's not over-react to those results though. Nebraska's victory came at home vs. San Jose State while TCU's three games came at the Charleston Classic. Now the Horned Frogs get to play their home opener while the Huskers will be playing their first road game. The Huskers will be solid defensively and they should have another decent season. However, I don't think that they'll have enough scoring options tonight to keep up with a TCU team which scored 75 points last time out. In addition to the homecourt advantage, I expect the fact that TCU has played three real games (compared to Nebraska's one) to work to the Frogs advantage this evening. With Nebraska at just 6-16-1 ATS (5-18 SU!) its last 23 road games, I'm backing the home dog. *Best Bet
I'm taking the points with CENTRAL MICHIGAN. I played on Central Michigan as an underdog last week, while also playing against Ball State as a favorite. While both games ended up quite close to the number, both tickets successfully cashed. This week, once again, I feel that the Chippewas offer excellent value as an underdog while the Cardinals are over-valued (laying too many points) as a favorite. Let's take a look at Ball State first. As you're probably aware, the Cardinals bring a perfect 10-0 record to the table, including a perfect 6-0 mark in conference play. They've got an excellent quarterback and have won every single game by double-digits. That's certainly very impressive. It should be pointed out that Ball State's schedule has been extremely favorable. Their non-conference slate began with 1-AA Northeastern. That was followed by Navy, which was still adjusting to its new coach. Both those games were at home. They did have two non-conference road games but those came against Western Kentucky and Indiana, a pair of teams which finished with a combined 5-17 record. In other words, Central Michigan is the best team that the Cardinals will have seen all year. Before moving on to Central Michigan, it should also be noted that the lines have begun to catch up with the Cardinals, as they are now 1-2 ATS their past three games. Like their guests, the Chippewas come in with a perfect 6-0 record in conference play. Like their guests, the Chippewas also have a bigtime quarterback, one which is coming off one of the best games of his career. They're also an impressive 10-2 overall and the schedule has been much more difficult than Ball State's schedule. Like the Cardinals, the Chippewas won outright at Indiana. Unlike the Cardinals, who will play Western Michigan in their regular season finale, the Chippewas have already beaten Western Michigan, doing so by double-digits. That's worth noting as Western Michigan is an excellent 6-1 in conference play (including the loss to Central Mich.) and 9-2 overall. Both Ball State and Central Michigan beat Northern Illinois but the Cardinals did so at home, while the Chippewas did so on the road, a much tougher task. Additionally, the Chippewas beat Buffalo, the top team from the MAC East this year. Ball State avoided the Bulls. Both losses came on the road. The first was at Georgia and there's no shame in that. The second loss also came vs. a Big 10 opponent, as Central Michigan fell by seven at Purdue. A closer look shows that the Chippewas were playing their third straight road game, something Ball State didn't have to deal with all season. Additionally, the Chippewas were up 25-24 with one minute left in that game, so they very easily could have won. It's true that Ball State comes in with loads of motivation. Not only do the Cardinals need a win to keep their perfect season in tact but they also want to avenge an embarrassing blowout loss suffered at the hands of the Chippewas last season. Ball State was a double-digit home favorite for that game but the Chippewas came into Muncie and beat them by 20. The Chippewas have just as much motivation though. Not only do they want to keep their perfect conference record in tact but this is the first time they have hosted a ranked opponent in five years. That makes this a very big deal for the Chippewas, too. The Chippewas are 10-2 SU/ATS their last 12 home lined games and they're 8-1 ATS their last nine games against a team with a winning record. They're also 4-1-1 ATS the last six times they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to seven point range. I feel the Chippewas are offering excellent value here and I look for them to give the Cardinals by far their toughest test of the season. *Main Event
I'm taking the points with TCU. Early results have created excellent value with the home underdog here. The Horned Frogs come in at 1-2 while the Huskers come in a 1-0. Let's not over-react to those results though. Nebraska's victory came at home vs. San Jose State while TCU's three games came at the Charleston Classic. Now the Horned Frogs get to play their home opener while the Huskers will be playing their first road game. The Huskers will be solid defensively and they should have another decent season. However, I don't think that they'll have enough scoring options tonight to keep up with a TCU team which scored 75 points last time out. In addition to the homecourt advantage, I expect the fact that TCU has played three real games (compared to Nebraska's one) to work to the Frogs advantage this evening. With Nebraska at just 6-16-1 ATS (5-18 SU!) its last 23 road games, I'm backing the home dog. *Best Bet
Executive
200 Ball St
250 Virginia
250 Cal Irvine
KBHoops
4* Central Mich +6.5
NBA
5* Heat ML -135 **POD**
5* Det/Clev OVER 190 +100
5* Milw/Utah OVER 190
3* Tor/Mia OVER 188
NCAAB
4* TCU +5
4* App State +2