Opposite Action Plays
Philadelphia 76ers
JB Sports
NJ Nets
LT Profits
Thunder/Cavaliers Over
Mike Rose
Oklahoma
Rocketman
Carolina Hurricanes
Alex Smart
SA Spurs
PAYNEINSIDER
College Basketball Game Of The Night
50* Richmond Spiders -2
Andre Gomes
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers
I know it may be dangerous to take the worst team of the league against the Cavs, who are won their last two games by 14 and 18 points, but the Thunder have a good spot for this game. First of all, the Cavs cruised at New York yesterday and they were already up by 67-38 at halftime. Lebron James had more work in talking about his future to the journalists than on the court, but when you have a back to back game and you're facing the worst team of the league, it's normal that the Cavs will relax a little bit today.
The Thunder are the worst team of the league and they also have the worst roster, however they have something new with their new coach: commitment and hustle plays! For some reason, the team after losing at home by 25 points against the Hornets managed to cover the spread in two games in a row against the same Hornets and the Suns last night, where they were even up by 12 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
"I know our guys learned something tonight, that if we compete and leave it on the floor, no matter which team that comes in here, we have a chance to win," Brooks said. "That's NBA basketball. That's what our fans deserve."
If we look to the stats that refer to hustle plays (steals, off rebounds and turnovers) of these two games, we see that the Thunder improved a lot, in comparison to their average: 10 steals/game [last 2 games] vs 6.9 of average; 7 off rebounds (opponents)/game vs 11 of average; 12.5 TO/game vs 16.1 of average.
Come to this, I expect a good response from the Thunder in here and they won't give up of the game even if they find themselves on a big hole early in the game, as the effect of a new coach is still on the air. I remember the Cavs last season went 3-8 ATS in back to back games when they won a game the night before and I expect the Thunder to keep the different to stay in the low 10's. Take Oklahoma City in here.
Regular Play on Oklahoma City Thunder (+16)
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers
I remember I backed the Sixers in their last game against the Bobcats and this team once again show a weird inconsistency and lost by 84-93. If you look to what the Bobcats did in that game, they only had 4 offensive boards, had 20 turnovers and were outscored by 30-48 in the paint, so the main fact was the effort and the desire of the Bobcats in order to win the game and a lack of effort by the Sixers. One thing we usually don't want to do is to bet again in one team that has just burnt us in their last game, but the spot of the Sixers today is too good to be avoided.
As I've refered, the Sixers didn't have the right attitude on that game and coach Maurice Cheeks note that very well, the truth is that the team after having played back to back games, practiced on the following day for two hours (something it's rare on the NBA). His answer for that fact was obvious:
"I just thought we needed to do it," Cheeks said. "We needed to clean up some things."
"We just went through our offense, making it a little crisper, understanding all the things we were trying to get out of it," he said. "The offense wasn't everything in the [Bobcats'] game, but it was part of it."
For this game, Jameer Nelson is out and the veteran Anthony Johnson will replace him on the starting lineup. I know that when we talk about Orlando, we immediately think in Howard, Hedo and Lewis, but the truth is that Nelson had been at a very high level on the last few games. He played just 16 minutes against the Bucks, however he had 6 assists and zero turnovers and looking at the 18 assists and 18 turnovers the team had in that game, we can see how important he is on the team. Actually on his three previous games, he had averaged 21.6 ppg and made 20 assists for just 5 turnovers.
If we add the fact that SG Bogans will be out for this game, this can be a concern for the Magic, as they will be short handed in the backcourt and I remember this team has the less productive bench of the league, with just 17.6 ppg. Dwight Howard will have a lot of work against Samuel Dalembert and Elton Brand and this team of the Sixers will come with a different commitment for sure (this is a revenge game for them) and the practice yesterday is a good indicator of that. Take Philadelphia in here.
Regular Play Philadelphia 76ers (-4)
Note: Buy the 1/2 point to -4.
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves
The Suns will play a back to back game against a team who is coming from a big win in their last game and this game promises to be good. Phoenix defeated the Thunder last night by 99-98 in a late comeback and the team was actually good on the offense, as if we look to the stats we see that the team shot 53.4% FG and Steve Nash had 15 assists, however the Suns will have Shaq down the post tonight and this will be the big difference on this game. Yesterday the Suns played with Robin Lopez in the spot of Shaq and the team had 36 points in the paint, which is a low number, considering their average of 48.5 ppg on the paint. The Shaq factor is evident and today the team will have more opportunities to score. I remember the Suns are 4-0 Over on back to back games this season.
Today they will face an extremely confident team and who is playing very well. Minny is the best team of the league in the A/TO ratio with 1.93 and this shows how good is the ball movement of the team (2nd on the league in assists per game with 24.2). The good news is that this matchup against the Suns results always in a lot of points, as I remember Phoenix is 18-7 Over against good passing teams (averaging 23 or more assists/game) over the last 3 seasons.
Minnesota scored 106 points at Detroit, while shooting 53% FG, 63.6% 3pts and making 32 assists! I repeat they played at Detroit and against a team who was coming mad to that game, after losing at Boston in their previous game. Honestly I think Minny will be competitive in this game and they may even win the game outright, but the confidence that they are showing right now and the fact they won't face a top defensive team makes me think this game will cross the 200 points mark. On the other side, the Suns with Shaq have once again the ability to score a lot of points in the paints. I remember Minny is 13-2 Over in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take the over in here.
Regular Play on Over 194.5
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons
In normal conditions, I would say the 209 points for this game was a solid line, after all we are talking about the Knicks and their run and gun system makes them score a lot of points and at the same time, they allow a lot of points too. However, this game won't be played in normal conditions and I'll explain why. First of all, it's important to refer that this team of the Knicks is averaging 109.4 ppg at home, but just 100.2 ppg on the road, which is less 9.2 ppg than their average at home!
But the big factor has to come with the fact that the Knicks won't be 100% ready to play at their usual style tonight. Cuttino Mobley is still out and Nate Robinson got injured last night and he is doubtful for tonight. We are talking about a short handed team and the scenario gets even worse, as the team will play their 4th game in 6 days, but that's not all, as due to the recent trades, the Knicks used just 7 players in their first two games of this span and yesterday even though they were easily defeated, the four starters of the team (the other one was Robinson) played an average of 38 minutes! Naturally that when a tired team bases their game in jump shooting, bad things can happen.
The Knicks will face the Pistons, who is coming from an humiliating loss against the Wolves by 80-106, where they allowed the Wolves to shoot 53% FG, 63.6% 3pts and 32 assists for just 13 turnovers. Come to this, I expect a very strong bounce back from Detroit today on defense, as last season the Pistons went 3-0 Under at home when coming from an home loss. Obviously I also expect an offensive bounce back from the Pistons today, as after all Iverson, Hamilton and Wallace shot a combined of 8-32 FG against the Wolves, but with a line of 209 points, both teams would need to score big numbers, in order for the game to go over the total posted and that's unlikely on this game. Take the under in here.
Regular Play on Under 209
Note: Play this up to 208 points.
Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets
If you remember, I took the over in the last game of the Rockets at Miami, as the Rockets were playing well, sharing more the ball and especially the mismatch between Yao Ming and Udonis Haslem would make the Heat play on an even faster tempo than they use to play and the game would have a lot of points because of that. That happened and the Rockets concluded this mini road trip by going 3-0 SU, but also 3-0 Over, which shows the team is really playing better than in the beginning of the season.
Today they will face the Pacers, who is coming from a close loss at Dallas by 106-109, when they had the lead of the game almost during the whole game, but allowed a run of the Mavs at the end. Indiana's games against the powerful top teams of the West always end with a lot of points, as the team can't stop the big men of their opponents. Last season, the Pacers went 15-5-1 Over as underdogs and we have seen yesterday that the tendency remains. I also remember that Yao Ming is coming from a game where he had 28 points and 12 rebounds.
The solution for the Pacers will be the same Miami used in their last game: play at an higher pace and come to this, I think this game will have more points than the 193.5 that the oddmakers offer for this game. The Pacers are a team who reacts well to close losses, as they are 23-8 Over after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 3-0 Over this season when they are big dogs (7 points or more) and as the Rockets are playing well right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see tonight's game having a similar results to the games between these two teams last season: 106-103 and 117-99. Take the over in here.
Regular Play on Over 193.5
Jeff Benton
15 Dimes Pistons
5 Dimes Pacers
5 Dimes Purdue
Karl Garrett
20* Oklahoma Sooners
ATS Lock Club
4 units Magic +5
3 units South Alabama -3
ATS Financial Package
3 units Celtics -12
3 units Hawks -7
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
Spurs -7
Oklahoma -3
Purdue -8
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
HUGE 6000* NBA SLAM DUNK CRUSHER
Denver -4
Jim Feist
Oklahoma
Billy Coleman
NBA
4* Chi-S.Antonio under 190
3* NY-Det under 208
College
4* Oklahoma - 4
3* Princeton + 4.5
3* S.Alabama - 4