WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Big Al

3* Hawaii

SCORE

300 HAWAII

JB Sports

4* Hawaii

Brand X Sports

Notre vs Hawaii

Hawaii is coming off a horrible season ending loss to Cincinnati at home.The Warriors blew a 14 point fourth quarter lea, allowing the Bearcats nineteen straight points in the final frame.Even with that loss, Hawaii did manage nine covers in eleven games.Notre Dame received a bowl bid solely because only the fanatics at South Bend would Follow a 6-6 team all the way to Hawaii.Notre Dame has not beat a team with a winning record since Joe Theisman was QBing (or so it seems)

2* Hawaii Warriors -1

Teddy Covers

20* Notre Dame

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

HAWAII BOWL
Hawaii over Notre Dame by 1

When Santa brings us a nice new plasma television this year and we open it early on Christmas Eve, it’s doubtful that the fi rst channel we turn on will be ESPN for this 8:00 snoozer. Yes, we still prefer reruns of ‘Charlie Brown’s Christmas’ over watching two teams with a combined 13-12 SU record. And it doesn’t look like we’ll be opening the wallet for this one, either. While Hawaii boasts a strong 21-3 SU mark in its last 24 home games – including the last 3 as a home bowler averaging over 51 PPG – this year’s version minus Colt Brennan is just 1-6 ‘In The Stats’. Although the Irish are one of our 2008 “Mission Teams” to receive a bowl invitation, their 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS mark in bowl games since 1994 doesn’t exude much confi dence. The visitors have outstatted 8 of their last 9 opponents but thanks to their propensity for turnovers on the road this season (22), their statistical dominance hasn’t translated into “W’s”. While Weis has been able to bully .500 or less foes to the tune of 16-4 SU, he hasn’t fared well against winning opposition, posting just a 12-17 SU and ATS mark in those contests. Hawaii’s Greg McMakin has done a credible job in replacing June Jones but our trusty database informs us that coaches in their fi rst year with a new team are just 8-21-1 ATS in Bowl games off a SU loss or win of less than 3 points. Tough call. We’ll leave this one to you but we’ll be watching Snoopy as he prepares for his annual battle with the Red Baron.

THE SPORTS MEMO

HAWAII BOWL
Notre Dame +1.5 vs. Hawaii O/U 48
Recommendation: Notre Dame

We know what the predominant story surrounding this game. It will read something like this, “Notre Dame, after a 4-1 start to the campaign limped their way into a bowl. Playing in Hawaii’s backyard doesn’t look conducive to breaking a nine-game losing streak in postseason play.” We don’t buy into that thinking. While Hawaii was struggling through their very weak WAC schedule, the Irish were in the midst of battling the likes of Michigan State, Boston College, Pitt and USC. While the results weren’t always pretty for Notre Dame, those tough opponents should have prepared them well. The Warriors offense was a work in progress seemingly all season long. They shuffled in three different quarterbacks throughout the year with spotty results. While they have finally settled on Greg Alexander, the output has remained inconsistent. Putting up 42 points on New Mexico State and Idaho is far from impressive. Probably more telling was the 14-point output against Utah State or the measly 24 they hung on Washington State – perhaps the worst FBS team in the country. Hawaii really hasn’t risen to the occasion against BCS teams. They were predictably terrible against Florida and Oregon State but again struggled to dispatch Washington State, who had just come off their only win this season against FBS competition. Hawaii also blew a lead over a Cincinnati squad that was as flat as a pancake after securing their first Big East title and a trip to Orange Bowl. At least we saw signs of improvement from Jimmy Clausen this season. The much maligned yet highly touted quarterback threw 20 touchdown passes this season. He also increased his completion percentage to near 60% and looked much more comfortable in the pocket. He still made some bonehead throws at times but largely had more highlights than lowlights. The emergence of Golden Tate as a game changing playmaker has really aided his progression as a quarterback. Tate averaged over 17.4 yards per catch this season while racking up over 900 yards. His eight total touchdowns led the team and he proved to be a dynamic kick and punt returner as well. When examined these two teams sport very similar stats but when we start to figure in the level of competition that each team faced, Notre Dame’s numbers look quite a bit more impressive. We don’t think the Irish simply come in and roll over Hawaii, instead we think it will be a surprisingly entertaining and hotly contested bowl. As such, it is worth noting that Hawaii was one of the worst field goal kicking teams in the country connecting on just 48% of its attempts. In a close game that can make all the difference in the world. We’ll side with Notre Dame and call for them to snap their long running losing streak in postseason play.

Logical Approach

As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:

Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll

5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch ? ? ?

Hawaii Bowl
Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive Bowls since their Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M on New Year's Day 1994. During this span over 90 colleges have won at least one Bowl game. That's rather remarkable given the storied history of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame bottomed out last season with a 3-9 mark but their 6-6 mark this season is considered disappointing. Hawaii was also down this season after Georgia ruined their hopes of a 13-0 when the Bulldogs walloped Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl, exposing the class difference between the programs, Hawaii's coach and QB from last year's team are gone and the results showed on the playing field. Hawaii struggled against the quality teams they faced with their lone win over a Bowl bound team being at Fresno. Notre Dame's only win over a Bowl bound team was over Navy. Still, Notre Dame does have the better athletes. Hawaii has the home field. But even at home should Hawaii be favored over a team such as Notre Dame? Not if Notre Dame is motivated. And while early reports suggest there is not all that much enthusiasm for this Bowl expect that to change as game time nears. Look for Notre Dame to make a priority of building towards next season by ending their long time Bowl failures. Hawaii is by far the weakest Bowl foe Notre Dame has faced during their 9 Bowl losing streak. Even on the road Notre Dame is the better team. They played better opposition and have the better defense, especially against the pass. Sure, Hawaii usually gets some officiating breaks at home but that cannot be counted upon going in. Look for Notre Dame to be focused for this game and at least temporarily ease the pressure on coach Charlie Weis. This is not one of our stronger recommendations but we cannot overlook the class difference between the athletes and the fact that the better athletes are the underdogs. Notre Dame wins34-27, making NOTRE DAME a 3 Star Selection and the OVER also a 3 Star Selection

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

HAWAII BOWL

This is the 3rd meeting with ND winning both SU (0-2 ATS) incl a 1 pt win over UH as a 28 pt AD in the ‘97 finale. Bowl organizers were thrilled to invite the Irish after they slid down the Big East’s bowl pecking order while HC Weis is happy to give his young tm extra practice while doing a little recruiting on the Islands. ND has played in a bowl in Hawaii before, a 27-20 loss to SMU in the Aloha Bowl in ‘84. The Irish have lost an NCAA record 9 straight bowls (last win in ‘93 Cotton) & are 1-8 ATS. Hawaii is making its 9th bowl appearance overall & is playing in its 6th bowl gm in the L/7Y. The Warriors are 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS all-time in bowls. This will mark the 7th time UH will play a bowl at home where it is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS. The Warriors played 8 bowl-elig tms TY going 3-5 SU & 5-3 ATS (5-0 ATS L/5) & were outscored by 11 ppg & outgained by 78 ypg. The Irish went 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS vs bowl tms getting outscored 27-16 & outgained 330-306with the TO margin at -13. This is HC McMackin’s 1st bowl at UH while Weis is 0-2 SU/ATS getting outscored 75-34 in 2 BCS gms vs Top 5 tms (Ohio St & LSU). The Irish are 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS on the road TY with the SU wins vs 0-12 Wash & vs Navy (neutral field) while UH was 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS here in Aloha Stadium. ND went 2-3 ATS as a dog & 2-1 ATS on turf while UH plays its HG’s on turf. UH has 15 Sr starters & 21 upperclassmen starters while ND has 8 Sr’s among 13 upperclassmen starters. After a ssn of historical lows in ‘07 the Irish were expected to be one of the nation’s most improved tms in ‘08. ND started out with great promise at 4-1 but TO’s & youthful inexperience derailed the season. QB Clausen seemed to lose confidence as the year wore on as at midseason his numbers were comparable to Brady Quinn’s 2006 stats. The L/4, however, he had just a 2-8 ratio as a stagnant running gm (#98 NCAA) provided little relief. An injury to record setting frosh WR Floyd also allowed teams to double team the Irish’s best big play threat Tate. ND was down to 2 true Fr TE’s with Rudolph being forced to take nearly every snap. The OL was vastly improved in pass blocking as they cut their sacks allowed from an NCAA worst 58 to a more reasonable 20 (4.8%) and the off finished #56 in our rankings. The defense is #34 led by the S duo of McCarthy & Bruton who finished as the team’s #1 & #2 tacklers. The Irish play a base 3-4 with NT Williams clogging the middle. The staff created a S/LB hybrid role to get the athletic Harrison Smith onto the field & he led the Irish with 8.5 tfl. ND is #28 in our pass eff D rankings & #51 in ST’s with K being a problem for most of the ssn as Walker started the yr 1-7. UH struggled right out of the gate TY losing 3 of its first 4 gms with many question marks. The Warriors went through a QB shuffle that extended to the end of Oct before finally settling on Alexander. UH stood 3-4 on the yr when Alexander came in off the bench to start the 2H vs Nev & McMackin retained him as the starter for the rest of the year to finally give the offense some much-needed stability & chemistry. UH’s OL avg 6’2” 299 with 3 Sr’s & is led by 1st Tm WAC C Estes. McMackin stated UH would make a concerted effort to run the ball more TY, & they did, but the increase in production was marginal. UH’s leading rusher Libre is avg just 36 ypg. Converted RB-turned-WR Pilares was slated to play in the slot TY but he’s been shuffled between WR & RB but does give UH a multi-threat out of the backfield. The Warriors have a pair of WR’s in Washington (2nd Tm WAC) & Salas who form a formidable rec corps with Bain & Lane. UH’s biggest downfall TY has been its inability to protect the ball as the Warriors are #117 in the NCAA in TO’s lost with 35 (21 int, 14 fmbl). UH boasts an experienced def as all 11 starters are either Jr’s (2) or Sr’s (9). The DL avg 6’3” 286 with 3 Sr’s & has recorded 23 of the Warriors’ 34 sks (68%). UH’s D is highlighted by a pair of 1st Tm WAC LB’s in Elimimian & Leonard who form the WAC’s top LB duo (193 tkls combined).Elimimian was named the ‘08 WAC co-Def POY and is the WAC’s leading active tackler (425). UH’s #43 pass D is highlighted by 1st Tm WAC DB Mouton and DB’s Monteilh & Thomas have combined for 8 int.In his first 3 ssn, PK Kelly connected on 71% of his FG att. TY, however, he’s struggled with his accuracy as he’s missed 6 of his L/8 attempts over the L/5 gms. UH finished a poor #114 in our ST’s rankings. Notre Dame makes this trip on Christmas Eve after improving from its 3-9 record LY. The 6-6 performance all’d Charlie Weis to keep his job but no team has more pressure to get a bowl win. The Irish have dropped 9 straight bowls and failed to cover the L/7 and a loss here will give them a losing record. Hawaii went thru a QB shuffle TY starting 3 diff QB’s before settling on Alexander but the bulk of his stats were against inferior defenses as 3 of the L/5 games were vs #107 NMSt, #119 Idaho and #111 Washington St. We see value here with the Irish being an underdog as the difference in talent level will be obvious.

FORECAST: NOTRE DAME BY 10
RATING: 4* NOTRE DAME

THE GOLD SHEET

HAWAII BOWL

NOTRE DAME (6-6) vs. HAWAII (7-6)

HAWAII 27 - Notre Dame 19—It’s not a stretch to say that we found out more about these respective entries during their losing efforts this season. Whereas Notre Dame surrendered meekly vs. almost every quality foe on its slate, and embarrassed itself when allowing lowly Syracuse to beat it at South Bend in November, Hawaii was impressive in keeping potent Boise State within earshot (on the blue carpet, no less) in October, and had BCS-bound Cincinnati on the ropes in the recent regular-season finale at Aloha Stadium. And unlike the Irish, the Warriors improved as ‘08 progressed, especially after 1st-year HC Greg McMackin’s QB roulette finally landed on juco Greg Alexander, who was efficient (12 TDP/4 picks) if not spectacular piloting the Red Gun after assuming the starting role at midseason. All of that is more than we can say about Notre Dame and HC Charlie Weis, whose job status proved an extra distraction after the regular season concluded. And even though Weis has been granted a stay of execution, that doesn’t portend a sudden transformation of the sluggish Irish attack, which too often abandoned the run, subjecting QB Jimmy Clausen to intense pressure, and was its own worst enemy with 26 TOs. With plenty of established playmakers (including LBs Elimimian & Leonard, & DE Veikune), Hawaii’s aggressive “D” (which forced 30 TOs) could wreak havoc. The Warriors aren’t as potent as recent editions, but with the home-field edge, they might not have to be to beat the uninspiring Irish. (DNP...SR: Notre Dame 2-0)

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK:

HAWAII
Bowl games and Notre Dame simply haven’t gone well together in recent years, at least as far as the Fighting Irish are concerned. And we see no reason for that pattern to change when Notre Dame makes the long trek to Honolulu for a Christmas Eve date at Aloha Stadium to face host Hawaii in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. How tough has it been for the Irish in recent bowls? Try losses in their last nine postseason appearances dating back to the ‘94 Cotton Bowl, and no covers in their last seven bowl games. And Notre Dame hasn’t been faring very well against the number in any category lately for beleaguered HC Charlie Weis, standing a poor 15-25-1 vs. the number its last 41 games on the board. Meanwhile, the Warriors managed to turn their season around after a slow start, covering 7 of their last 9 on the board in ‘08, including 4 of their last 5 at Aloha Stadium. Hawaii has also won and covered convincingly in its last two appearances (2004 & ‘06) in the home-field bowl game.

Nelly’s Green Sheet

HAWAII BOWL
HAWAII (-1½) Notre Dame (48)

Increased scrutiny continues to pile on the Notre Dame program and coaching staff but a reluctant vote of confidence was given to Coach Charlie Weis despite considerable late season speculation. Weis has never won a bowl games and the Irish have now lost nine consecutive bowl games, including losing ATS in each of the past seven. Hosting this game did not look like a possibility early in the season in Coac h McMackin’s first year but the Warriors won six of eight down the stretch before a narrow loss in the finale to become bowl eligible. Hawaii has won each of the last three times they have played in this home bowl game but the Warriors lost twice at home this season and played a very weak schedule. These teams feature nearly identical numbers on offense with both teams partial to the passing game but defensively the Irish have stronger overall numbers. Hawaii allows more sacks than just about every team in the nation with a sound game plan the Irish should be able to create some big plays on defense. The last three wins for Hawaii came against teams that have a combined 7-30 record and Hawaii also had a win against a FCS team early in the year so there is not much substance on the resume. Notre Dame has solid numbers against the pass this season and five of the six losses came against major conference bowl teams. Notre Dame scored 23 or more points nine times this season so the offense is capable despite the negative press. NOTRE DAME 28-24 RATING 2: NOTRE DAME (+1½) RATING 1: ‘OVER 48’

Hey guys I'm really up in the air on this and would rather just not touch this game at all because there is no way i'd want to watch it. But Blade, Cash, all the other guys, what way are you leaning towards on this game???

Dr Bob

Opinion

Hawaii 26 Notre Dame (-2.0) 23 (at Hawaii Bowl)

The line on this game opened with the home team Hawaii being favored by 2 points and now Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite. I think the oddsmakers had this one correct when they opened Hawaii as the small favorite and the Warriors are the percentage side in this game against the perennially overrated Irish. Notre Dame wasn’t as overrated this season as they are in most years due to how bad they were last season, but the Irish are not much better than an average team. Notre Dame averaged a modest 5.1 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but I decided to take their pathetic effort against USC (91 total yards at 1.9 yppl) out of the equation for this game since USC was extremely dominating this year. Even so, the Irish are still 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and they’ll be up against a Hawaii stop unit that yielded a decent 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. So, Hawaii has a 0.2 yppl advantage when Notre Dame has the ball and Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen is interception prone (17 interceptions in 12 games).

Notre Dame does have a solid defense that gave up just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and Hawaii has a negative offensive rating for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack). However, Hawaii’s offense got much better when Greg Alexander was installed as the Warriors’ quarterback midway through their week 9 win over Nevada. In those final 5 ½ games Alexander averaged 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and Hawaii is 0.3 yppl better than average with Alexander at quarterback. Alexander also remedied Hawaii’s biggest problem, which was interceptions. Hawaii quarterbacks threw a combined 19 interceptions in the first 7 ½ games of the season, but Alexander threw just 2 picks in the final 5 ½ games. Hawaii’s offense with Alexander at quarterback is just as good as Notre Dame’s defense.

Not only does Hawaii have a slight 0.2 yppl overall advantage from the line of scrimmage over Notre Dame, but the Warriors are much less likely to turn the ball over than the Irish now that Alexander is at quarterback. Notre Dame does have a significant edge in special teams, which will help with field position, but my math model favors Hawaii by 1 ½ points at home – which is about what the oddsmakers had the line at. Notre Dame must have a lot of alumni that love to gamble, because the line on the Irish in bowl games is always off. Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive bowl games straight up (1-8 ATS) and they’ve dropped 6 straight to the number due to bad lines. In addition to the line value, bowl teams playing in their home stadium are 14-5 ATS as long as they’re not favored by 7 points or more and teams that end the regular season by scoring less than 7 points (the Irish scored 3 points against USC) are just 3-15 ATS in bowl games as a favorite or small dog of less than 3 points. I’ve had Best Bets against the Irish in a few of those games, but I’ll resist making this one a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Hawaii at -1 or better and I’d consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (at -1.15 odds or better). I have no opinion on the total.

Beat Your Bookie

100* Play Hawaii (+1.5) over Notre Dame

Notre Dame is 2-9 SU & ATS in all Bowl Games since 1992
Notre Dame is 1-8 SU & ATS coming off a loss by 28 points or more
Notre Dame is 2-7 SU & ATS coming off an UNDER the total