Adam Meyer
Hawaii +2
Las Vegas Sport Picks
2* ND/Haw Over 48
Brandon Lang
10-Dime Hawaii
FREE - Hawaii/Notre Dame Under
LARRY NESS
Las Vegas Insider-Haw Bowl (1-0 TY)
Hawaii was 12-0 entering last year's bowl season and had a Sugar Bowl date with Georgia. The Rainbows were hopelessly outclassed in that game, losing 41-10 (game wasn't that close). As for the Irish, coming off a 3-9 season in 2007, the Irish were a much better team through seven games but finished with four losses in their last five and enter this game at 6-6. A loss here by Notre Dame and it would mark back-to-back losing seasons for the third time in 120 seasons. The first was in 1887 (0-1) and 1888 (1-2), and Gerry Faust's final season in 1985 (5-6) and Lou Holtz's first season in 1986 (5-6). Then of course there is Notre Dame's well publicized nine-game bowl losing streak, as the Irish haven't won a bowl game since beating Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl after the 1993 season. Almost incredibly, 89 of 119 schools have won in the postseason since Notre Dame's last bowl win. That sets the stage. I almost feel as if the "powers that be" in college football handpicked this opponent for the Irish. Hawaii has a strong home field advantage and Rainbows will be making their FIFTH appearance (playing in their home stadium), since this bowl's inception in 2002. Hawaii has won this game in 2003, 2004 and 2006. However, this year's team not only doesn't come close to matching last year's squad (that's obvious) but it is really also far below the previous four Hawaii teams which appeared in this bowl. Those four teams had a collective 38-17 (.691) mark, while this year's team enters 7-6. Now there is no doubt that QB Greg Alexander has made a huge difference for the Rainbows, as he led them to a 4-2 finish. He completed 64.6 percent of his throws in his six starts, passing for 1,533 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs (also added 184 yards rushing with three more scores). However, the Rainbows only ran for 99.3 YPG (3.3 YPC) this year and Alexander can't expect much help from his running game. Let's remember, Hawaii threw for over 5,700 yards last year (with 51 TDs), as three receivers topped 1,000 yards, two topped 100 catches and all three had double digits in TD receptions (combined to catch 38). In comparison, Hawaii QBs threw for 3,192 yards TY with 21 TDs and 21 INTs, as the leading receiver had 56 catches and the yardage leader barely topped 750. The Notre Dame pass D ranks 18th in passing efficiency, allowing just 52.9 percent completions (12 TDs and 13 INTs) , while allowing an average of 184.9 YPG (ranks 30th). It's easy to remember Notre Dame's 1-4 slide, which included an embarrassing two-game finish. First came the 24-23 home loss to Syracuse (as nearly a three-TD favorite) and then the 38-3 loss at USC. Notre Dame had four FDs and 91 total yards in that game, picking up its initial FD on the last play of the third quarter (a 15-yard run by James Aldridge). Notre Dame had run 30 plays for 23 yards before Aldridge's run. However, with all criticism coming Weis' way (and with good reason,as the Irish are no longer an elite program), this year's team is dramatically improved over last year's squad. Let's not forget Notre Dame opened 0-5 last year, getting outscored 166-46. Wins in its final two games gave them a 3-9 mark, as the team averaged 75.3 YPG (2.1 YPC) on the ground and 167.0 YPG through the air. This year's team averages 113.4 YPG (3.4 YPC) on the ground and 231.4 YPG in the air. Clausen threw for 1,254 yards (7-6 ratio) LY and 2,771 yards (20-17 ratio) TY. Notre Dame was 5-2 and a 4th-down 'stop' away from moving to 6-2 against Pitt. However, the Panthers threw a 10-yard TD pass on 4th down to tie that game with just over two minutes left and then won in multiple OTs, 36-33. It was all downhill from there. Hawaii hasn't beaten a single team of note this year (best win came at home over 7-5 Nevada) and the team's strong showing vs Cincy on Dec 6 came against a Cincy team still 'celebrating' its first-ever BCS Bowl bid. And let's not forget, the Rainbows managed to blow a 24-10 4th quarter lead in that game. The Irish will NOT be distracted here and the last thing Weis needs right now, is to be explaining away the school's 10th consecutive bowl loss, to a 7-6 Hawaii team. The Irish have found an opponent they can beat and get it done.
Las Vegas Insider on Notre Dame.
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
PERFECT 9000* HAWAII BOWL WINNER
Notre Dame -2
The Booooj
5 Units on Notre Dame (-2) over Hawaii
Hawaii (7-6) vs. Notre Dame (6-6)- This is a critical game for Notre Dame’s program. This is a team that can’t afford another embarrassment, and I believe they will play like they know it. Notre Dame started off the season looking like a very promising young team, but really stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their last five. Look for Notre Dame to really try and establish the run early in the game. If they can do that, it will go a long way to opening up the passing game for Jimmy Clausen and his talented receiving core. Hawaii linebacker Solomon Elimimian will look to stuff the run and force the Notre Dame offense into 3rd and long situations, which they struggle with. Defensively Notre Dame matches up very well with the Hawaii offense and should be able to hold them down enough to win the game. Notre Dame by 10-14.
Seabass
20* Hawaii
Comp under
Dave Malinsky
4* ND / Hawaii Over 48
PPP
5% Notre Dame -2
Christian Alexander
Notre Dame at Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +1.5
Don't get caught up on the brand names here. If you do, there is no way you can look past the golden helmets and Notre Dame. Predictably, the money is starting to pour in on the Fightin' Irish.
However, I tend to look at the actual results from the field and those point to the other sideline.
Notre Dame really stunk down the stretch, losing four of their last five including a 38-3 rout to Southern Cal to end the season.
On the other hand, Hawaii looked sharp to close out the year, winning three of their last four. They would have run the table had Cincinnati not staged a fourth quarter comeback to beat them 29-24 in their last regular season game.
And history is on the side of the Warriors.
By know, everyone knows that Notre Dame hasn't won a bowl game since January of 1994. Yes, 14 years ago.
Northcoast Bowl Package
3* Notre Dame
COMPS
Bob Balfe
Notre Dame -2.5 over Hawaii
Notre Dame is lucky that they even made it to a bowl game and their is no team in the nation that is feeling the heat more than the Irish. This team did not go to a bowl last year and has lost 9 straight bowl games. This game is not a big ranked bowl game, but means more than a BCS Bowl Game to the Irish. This is an absolute must win for head coach Charlie Weis and a lot of the staff. Hawaii is not the same team without coach June Jones and their offense does not light it up like the offense we are used to seeing. Last year Hawaii made a BCS game and got blown out by Georgia. Notre Dame still have superior athletes and should get a much needed bowl win tonight. Take the Irish.
Cajun Sports
Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +2.5
For the 5th time in the 7-year history of the Hawaii Bowl, the home team gets a chance to keep the trophy on the island as the Warriors host the Fighting Irish in Honolulu on Christmas Eve.
Hawaii won this Bowl Game in 2003, 2004, and 2006, so they have a history of doing well here. This season the Warriors began with three losses in four tries to kick off the campaign, but down the stretch got it together and finished 7-6 overall. It was nearly 8-5 with a win over the Big East Champions, but they blew a sizeable lead in the fourth quarter against Cincinnati in the regular-season finale.
Notre Dame began 2008 much like they closed out 2007 when they won back-to-back games, winning four of the first five decisions; however, after the 28-21 victory against Stanford at home in early October, the Irish nearly fell apart with just two more victories the rest of the way. One of those wins came against winless Washington, while the other was a 27-21 decision versus Navy. Clearly, Notre Dame backed into the postseason after losing two straight and four of five down the stretch to finish with a mediocre 6-6 mark. The Irish have lost NINE straight Bowl Games.
The Greg McMackin version of the Hawaii offense took some time to find out who the leader was in 2008. Several players tried to fit into the quarterback mold, but eventually the team turned to Greg Alexander and found a diamond in the rough. Alexander started a total of six games for the squad, converting 64% of his pass attempts for 12 touchdowns and just four interceptions.
Take away the 56 points allowed to Florida in the season opener and the 45 points posted by Oregon State in the middle of September, and the defense for the Warriors was not all that bad. They did allow 27 ppg, but they got better as the season wore on and the offense sustained some drives. The unit was decent against the run, permitting 148 ypg and average versus the pass with 204 ypg surrendered. What helped in both cases was a front line defense that was more active in the opponent's backfield with 2.6 sacks per game and 6.9 tackles for loss, both good for top 25 spots in the country.
In 2007, the Fighting Irish were last in the nation in total offense and 116th in terms of points scored, so the team could only get better. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen survived last year’s weekly beatings to complete close to 60% of his pass attempts for 231 ypg and 20 touchdowns, but he also tossed 17 interceptions. Three times in 2008 the team was held to seven points or less, partly because the rushing attack was limited to just 113 ypg, ranking the Irish 98th in the nation.
A year ago, the Irish held only three opponents to fewer than 27 points, which is why the squad's scoring defense was rather weak with 29 ppg allowed. This time around they cut the figure down by almost a full touchdown, but still the group had issues against the more talented opponents on the schedule. The pressure at the line of scrimmage was only slightly better, as the group ranked 81st and 112th in the country, respectively. The stats also show that the Irish tend to get weaker as the game wears on, giving up more than twice the number of points in the second quarter than they did in the first and watching opponents roll up even more points in the fourth quarter.
We’ve watched the spread move more than 3 points in this game, as the public has evidently decided that Notre Dame can’t lose another Bowl Game after dropping their last 9 and moved them from being a slight underdog to the role of favorite. It’s hard to get excited about backing a favorite in a spot they have failed miserably the last NINE times. Spread-wise, the Irish are also 0-9 ATS when not a Bowl double-digit underdog. Meanwhile, Hawaii is 4-0 SU (+13 ppg) + 4-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) in Bowl Games with the line between -9 & +9.
Notre Dame is the only team playing a true road game during this Bowl season and the road has not been kind to the Irish, as they are 0-6 ATS (-8.8 ppg) on the road off a SU & ATS loss vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU & ATS win.
Meanwhile, Hawaii enjoys a big homefield advantage due to location and climate. It’s no wonder they are 11-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) at home with a line between -3 & +8 since 2000, and 12-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) at home vs. non-conference opponents with a line between +9 & -3 since 1994.
Bowl teams have certainly enjoyed home field advantage under the conditions outlined in one of our Bowl-exclusive POWER SYSTEM. It states simply:
Play ON a Bowl home team (not a favorite of 9+ points) vs. an opponent not off 2 favorite SU wins of 10+ points each.
These hosts are 16-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than 12 points per game on average going back to at least 1980. This system may be even better than that, as the SportsDataBase only goes back to 1980.
Ultimately, we have 2 motivated teams in this game. Notre Dame is desperate to finally get a Bowl win, while the Warriors want to prove themselves against the most-storied team in college football. If this game had been played at the start of the season it would be an easy pick for Notre Dame; however, the Irish have gotten worse as the season went along, while Hawaii has recovered from their horrific start and got much better. In a close call, we like the Warriors to hang tough long enough for the Irish to find a way to come up short.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: HAWAII 28 NOTRE DAME 27
Rob Crowne
Notre Dame -2 vs Hawaii
They call this game the Hawaii Bowl, and one of the teams is Hawaii, which may, if you are clever, tell you a little something about the Home edge. My proprietary information sources tell me that very, very few students will be jumping in their cars and driving from South Bend to the Aloha Stadium (don't you wish you had great informatioin sources like me?)
Hawaii will have the crowd. Under normal circumstances, Hawaii's edge would be huge. Nothing serves as a vacation reward for a season job well done than a trip to the land of the Lei. In the old days, the coach would make sure to provide plenty of pretty young wahini's to hand out those lei's to the visitors, and make sure they got little sleep and plenty sunburned. The politically correct do-gooders ruined the times of wahini leis, and the good old days are no more.
Further, 6-6 ND has nothing to be rewarded for this year, and the coaching staff is not in a rewarding mood. Notre Dame has been in the Islands long enough to adjust for the time difference. Crowd or nor crowd, ND is the better team, and they will be trying to salvage something to be proud about this season. Take Notre Dame -2 in the Bowl of the 50 percenters.
Matty O'Shea
Notre Dame -2 vs Hawaii
Yes, I know the Fighting Irish have lost nine straight bowl games, with their last postseason win coming almost 15 years ago. But as hard as it is to say, Notre Dame is still a far superior team when compared to Hawaii. The Irish's last five bowl losses have all been decided by two touchdowns or more because they were playing teams out of their league. This time around, the host Warriors are at a serious disadvantage because they simply lack quality talent. Meanwhile, Notre Dame will be getting LB Brian Smith (fourth-leading tackler with 53) and WR Michael Floyd (702 yards & 7 TDs) back after both missed the final two games of the regular season, which just happens to be when the team took a load of criticism for finishing so poorly. This game offers a shot at redemption for the Irish, and I believe they will take advantage of that opportunity and finish off the year with a big victory. Bet Notre Dame as my Double Dime College Bowl Game O' the Week.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Notre Dame (6-6 SU and ATS) vs. Hawaii (7-6, 7-5 ATS) (at Honolulu)
After failing to qualify for the postseason last year, Notre Dame returns to bowl action, but it arrives in Honolulu having dropped four of five and now will face the Warriors on their home field at Aloha Stadium.
The Fighting Irish became bowl eligible with a 27-21 win over Navy as a four-point favorite back on Nov. 15 and then proceeded to lose its final two games, falling 24-23 at home to Syracuse as a huge 19½-point chalk and getting blown out at USC 38-3 as a 33 ½-point road ‘dog the following week. In its finale, Notre Dame was outgained 449-91 by the Trojans and managed just 41 passing yards and four first downs.
The Irish haven’t won a bowl game since the Cotton Bowl following the 1993 season, losing nine postseason games since then while going 1-8 ATS, including seven straight non covers. In fact, Notre Dame’s has dropped its last five bowl appearances by 14 points or more.
Hawaii won three of four down the stretch (3-1 ATS) to qualify for its third straight bowl game. The Warriors finished with a three-game homestand, crushing Idaho (49-17) and Washington State (24-10) before dropping a 29-24 decision to Cincinnati on Dec. 6, but they cashed as a 7½-point favorite against the Big East champion Bearcats. Junior QB Greg Alexander threw for 1,142 yards and nine TDs in the final four games to put Hawaii in this game.
After an undefeated regular season in 2007, Hawaii was awarded a berth in the BCS Sugar Bowl, but the Warriors got walloped 41-10 as a nine-point underdog to end its perfect season. The Warriors are 3-1 SU in the Hawaii Bowl, including 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two, most recently pounding Arizona State 41-24 as an 8½-point chalk in the 2006 Hawaii Bowl.
These two teams last met in 1997 with Notre Dame edging Hawaii 23-22 but coming nowhere near covering as a 28-point favorite.
Both teams have similar offenses, with the Irish averaging 22.7 points, 344.8 total yards and 113.4 rushing yards per game, while Hawaii nets 25 points, 344.8 total yards and 99.2 rushing yards per outing. However, over their last three games, the Irish have mustered just 17.7 points and 254.3 total yards per game, while the Warriors put up 32.3 points and 351 yards per contest.
Defensively, Notre Dame yields 22.2 points and 327.5 total yards per game (142.7 rushing ypg), while Hawaii surrenders 27.3 points and 351.8 total yards per game (148 rushing ypg).
In addition to their 0-7 ATS drought in bowl games, the Irish are 15-25-1 ATS in their last 41 overall, going 1-4 ATS down the stretch this season. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-2 in December contests and 4-0 as an underdog.
Notre Dame is on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 15-7-1 in non-conference games and 4-0 after a straight-up loss. Hawaii has stayed below the total in seven of its last nine non-conference games, eight of its last 11 after a straight-up loss and nine of its last 12 on artificial turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HAWAII and UNDER
DR GURU
5* HAW/ND OVER 48
10* TEASER HAW +8 OV 42