Billy Coleman
4* Notre Dame
Westcoast Sports
Notre Dame -2
Boston Blackie
5* Notre Dame -2
Gold Medal Club
Notre Dame + OVER (Very small)
C-Stars Sports
2000 Units Super Play Notre Dame
Dr Bob
Opinion
Hawaii 26 Notre Dame (-2.0) 23 (at Hawaii Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Dec-08
The line on this game opened with the home team Hawaii being favored by 2 points and now Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite. I think the oddsmakers had this one correct when they opened Hawaii as the small favorite and the Warriors are the percentage side in this game against the perennially overrated Irish. Notre Dame wasn’t as overrated this season as they are in most years due to how bad they were last season, but the Irish are not much better than an average team. Notre Dame averaged a modest 5.1 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but I decided to take their pathetic effort against USC (91 total yards at 1.9 yppl) out of the equation for this game since USC was extremely dominating this year. Even so, the Irish are still 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and they’ll be up against a Hawaii stop unit that yielded a decent 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. So, Hawaii has a 0.2 yppl advantage when Notre Dame has the ball and Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen is interception prone (17 interceptions in 12 games).
Notre Dame does have a solid defense that gave up just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and Hawaii has a negative offensive rating for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack). However, Hawaii’s offense got much better when Greg Alexander was installed as the Warriors’ quarterback midway through their week 9 win over Nevada. In those final 5 ½ games Alexander averaged 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and Hawaii is 0.3 yppl better than average with Alexander at quarterback. Alexander also remedied Hawaii’s biggest problem, which was interceptions. Hawaii quarterbacks threw a combined 19 interceptions in the first 7 ½ games of the season, but Alexander threw just 2 picks in the final 5 ½ games. Hawaii’s offense with Alexander at quarterback is just as good as Notre Dame’s defense.
Not only does Hawaii have a slight 0.2 yppl overall advantage from the line of scrimmage over Notre Dame, but the Warriors are much less likely to turn the ball over than the Irish now that Alexander is at quarterback. Notre Dame does have a significant edge in special teams, which will help with field position, but my math model favors Hawaii by 1 ½ points at home – which is about what the oddsmakers had the line at. Notre Dame must have a lot of alumni that love to gamble, because the line on the Irish in bowl games is always off. Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive bowl games straight up (1-8 ATS) and they’ve dropped 6 straight to the number due to bad lines. In addition to the line value, bowl teams playing in their home stadium are 14-5 ATS as long as they’re not favored by 7 points or more and teams that end the regular season by scoring less than 7 points (the Irish scored 3 points against USC) are just 3-15 ATS in bowl games as a favorite or small dog of less than 3 points. I’ve had Best Bets against the Irish in a few of those games, but I’ll resist making this one a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Hawaii at -1 or better and I’d consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (at -1.15 odds or better). I have no opinion on the total
3G-Sports
Hawaii 5*
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm playing on Hawaii and Notre Dame to finish UNDER the total. It's true that recent Hawaii Bowls have been extremely high-scoring. In fact, the last six bowl games here have all produced a minimum of 64 combined points. There have been a few reasons for those high scores. For starters, the "weather issues" which often plague other bowl games aren't generally a factor in sunny Hawaii. In fact, the entire tropical atmosphere makes it feel like a vacation to many of the players. Additionally, many of the teams involved in those games were high-scoring but defensively-challenged teams. For example, Hawaii was involved in three of those games and most remember what type of team the Warriors were in the June Jones years with quarterbacks like Colt Brennan and Timmy Chang throwing on nearly every play. I feel that this year's game will be much different though. While many of these 'lesser' bowl games aren't treated quite as seriously, I expect both of this year's teams to be extremely serious and motivated to win. Hawaii really wants to kick-off the post June Jones era with a win and also erase the painful memory from last year's beatdown vs. Georgia. I used Georgia as my 'bowl game of the year' and the Bulldogs completely embarrassed the Warriors. That should provide some added motivation to the Hawaii defense here, as they definitely do not want a similar result here. As for Notre Dame, the Irish haven't won a bowl game in ages. Indeed, Notre Dame has an NCAA-record nine-game bowl losing streak and hasn't won a bowl game in 15 years. As tailback Armondo Allen noted: "Breaking our bowl streak, that's very, very important..." In other words, much like TCU and Boise State last night (a couple of teams with something to prove) this should be a significantly more "serious" bowl game than many of the other early bowl games without the "vacation like" atmosphere we've seen here in Hawaii in the past. Additionally, while many still think of these as high-scoring teams, that wasn't the case this season. Notre Dame averaged only 22.7 points per game, including just 15.7 on the road. The UNDER was 5-1 in the Irish's six road games with the defense allowing an average of 22.5 points and just 288 yards in those games. Hawaii averaged 24.9 points per game, down significantly from previous years. The Warriors made up for it by playing strong defense though, particularly here at home. In six games here, they allowed 19.7 points and 289.4 total yards of offense. The defense improved down the stretch, too, allowing an average of just 245.7 total yards of offense through the final three games. The Warriors did permit 29 points to Cincinnati in their final game. However, the Bearcats were one of the better teams in the country this season and a closer look at the stats from that game show that Hawaii held them to just 10 points through the first three quarters. The Irish have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played on turf and 5-1 the last six times they played a road game with a total in the 42.5 to 49 range. Most will expect a shootout but I look for solid defensive play and for the UNDER to improve to 7-1 the last eight times that the Warriors played with two or more week's rest in between games. *Main Event
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER Notre Dame/Hawaii - AiS shows an 80% probability that 46 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 34-10 for 77% since 2002. Play under with all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two average passing teams gaining 6.4-7.5 PYA and in non-conference games. Notre Dame is in a series of strong roles for the UNDER. ND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games after playing a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. Notre Dame has an NCAA-record nine-game bowl losing streak. The Fighting Irish haven't hoisted a postseason trophy since beating Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl after the 1993 season. The dominant matchup is that the ND defense is bigger, stronger, and just as fast as the hawaii offense. Hawaii will have trouble running the ball between the tackles. Notre Dame opened the year 4-1 with high expectations. But the Irish faltered, going 2-5 the rest of the way, plagued by turnovers. The Irish averaged nearly 30 points a game in South Bend, compared with almost half that on the road. QB Clausen had just 41 yards passing against USC. Granted, Hawaii is not USC, but Weiss has no choice, but to run a conservative scheme making sure that the turnover that plagued them in the second half of the season does not effect the outcome of this game. Weiss needs the win and minimizing mistakes is the key to gaining that win. Take the UNDER.
TOM STRYKER
27-10 ATS HAWAII BOWL HONEY
NOTRE DAME (-) over Hawaii
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Notre Dame/Hawaii OVER 48.5
Primetime Sports Advisors
2 units Notre Dame -2
Has anyone come across Special K's Bowl Game of the Year? He has released it but it does not say which game it is on. Thanks and Happy Holidays to all!!!
Opposite Action Plays
Notre Dame
Mike Lineback
Notre Dame
Tony George
Notre Dame
Nick Parsons
Notre Dame/Hawaii Under
Teddy June
Notre Dame
I am done for the day guys I gotta try to get home which should be another 3-4 hour adventure ;D
Have a good night and a great Xmas