Bob Balfe
College Football
Air Force +3.5 over Houston
Two teams with different styles will face off this afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl. Air Force runs the ball very well while Houston is great throwing the ball. Look for Air Force to keep the ball on the ground and to chew up the clock limiting the amount of time Houston get the ball. Air Force has a better defense and should throw off the timing of the Cougar offense. This is the Armed Forces Bowl. Houston doesn't have any army. Take Air Force.
Pittsburgh +2 over Oregon State
Oregon State will be remembered this year for the team that beat USC, but today will be without both Rogers brothers that account for a lot of their offense. Pittsburgh has a great running back in McCoy and should run the ball well. This should be a close game, but in the end the running game for Pitt should come out on top. Take the Panthers.
Boston College -3.5 over Vanderbilt
This is practically a home game for Vanderbilt, but this team did not play that well at home down the stretch and record wise jumped out of the gates early because they were beneficent of a lot of opponent turnovers. Boston College has won 8 straight bowl games and the only way Vanderbilt has a shot is if Boston College beats themselves. Look for BC to do enough to get their 9th straight bowl win.
Kansas -9 over Minnesota
Minnesota is a lot like Vanderbilt. This team started hot, but still has a long way to go. When you turn the ball over a lot it gets in your head that you are still that same old Gophers team. Kansas has a better offense and should put up a lot of points. Both defenses stink, but I do not see Minnesota trading points all night. One or two key turnovers will put this game out of reach. Take Kansas.
LSU +4 over GTech
LSU has been horrible against the spread this year while GTech has covered a lot for the public. These trends have a way of balancing out especially in bowl games. This game is being played in the Georgia Dome and we will see just how much speed LSU has. The Tigers have superior athletes and should slow down the high powered running game of the Yellow Jackets. LSU will make up for a very disappointing season tonight.
NBA Basketball
Magic -6 over Bulls
NCAA Basketball
DePaul +7.5 over Notre Dame
ELITE SPORTS PICKS
Minnesota +9 over Kansas
Jim Hurley
ROI
Medium Minn +9
Medium GT -4
Bowl Best Bet Pitt +2.5
Josh Dean
8 units on Akron -10
2 units on Bucks +8.5
Bob Akmens Air Force +3.5 / 5 units
Bob Akmens Air Force Houston o64.5 / 5 units
Bob Akmens Oregon State -2.5 / 5 units
Bob Akmens Vanderbilt +3.5 / 5 units
JB Sports 5 units Houston -3.5
JB Sports LSU +4.0 (-110) / 3 units 3 units LSU +4
Mike Rose 5* HOUSTON/AIR FORCE OVER 65 BEST
Mike Rose 3* PITT (+2’)
Mike Rose LSU +4.5 / 2 units
Teddy Covers Pittsburgh +2.5 / 3 units
Teddy Covers Kansas -8.5 / 4 units
LT Profits Vanderbilt +3.5 (-110) / 2 units
The Pres Boston College Vanderbilt o40.5 (-110) / 5 units
The Pres Minnesota +9.0 (-110) / 5 units
The Pres LSU Georgia Tech o52.5 (-110) / 7 units
Ben Lewis 5* CFB Best Bet Minnesota / Kansas OVER 59
Alex Smart LSU +4.5 / 5 units 5.5* Game of the Year College Football Bowl
Alex Smart Orlando Magic Chicago Bulls o202.0 / 3 units
JB Sports Chicago Bulls +6.0 (-110) / 3 units
Mike Rose Chicago Bulls +6.5 / 5 units
Mike Rose Evansville +8.0 / 2 units
Mike Rose Drake -6.0 / 3 units
Mike Rose Indiana State +10.0 / 2 units
Mike Rose Michigan -2.5 / 5 units 5* MICHIGAN (-2’) VS. WISCONSIN BEST
The Pres St John's +9.0 (-110) / 3 units
The Pres Utah +6.5 (-110) / 4 units
The Pres Golden State Warriors Oklahoma City Thunder o218.5 (-110) / 4 units
The Pres New Jersey Devils (105) / 5 units
The Pres Los Angeles Clippers +3.0 (-110) / 4 units
The Pres North Carolina -18.5 / 5 units
OC Dooley
4 unit over Houston/AF
2 unit Houston
Game Time Sports Advisors
5* LSU
4* PITT
ATS LOCK
10 LSU +4 GOY
5 Houston -3 1/2
4 BC - 3 1/2
Hoops
5 Rutgers +15
4 Drake -6
3 M Tn St +1
FINANCIAL
4 Oregon St -2
3 Kansas -9
Hoops
4 Utah +7
3 Minn +1
Northcoast Sports
Top pick 4* on LSU
3* Hou
3* Pit under
Top Opinion: Minn
Top Opinion: BC under (triple play)
Opinion: Van
Opinion: Org St
Double Totals Play: Hou over
Single Totals Play: LSU over
Single Totals Play: Minn under
Adam Meyer
Houston U (-3 1/2 Points) vs. Air Force
(Armed Forces Bowl - ESPNAMON G. CARTER Stadium - Fort Worth, TX)
Simply put…Houston has too much firepower for Air Force. QB Case Keenum for the Cougars was the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year and totaled almost 5,000 yards of offense. Air Force has a good enough defense for the Mountain West Conference, but the kind of offense that Houston will throw at them is another thing all together. Houston will score early and often and win this one easily.
Play: Houston U (-3 1/2 Points)
Oregon State (-2 Points) vs. Pittsburgh
(Sun Bowl - CBSSUN Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX)
Simply put…Houston has too much firepower for Air Force. QB Case Keenum for the Cougars was the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year and totaled almost 5,000 yards of offense. Air Force has a good enough defense for the Mountain West Conference, but the kind of offense that Houston will throw at them is another thing all together. Houston will score early and often and win this one easily.
Play: Oregon State (-2 Points)
Minnesota (+9 Points) vs. Kansas
(Insight Bowl - NFL NETWORKSUN DEVIL Stadium - Tempe, AZ)
Kansas has shown it cannot stop a multi-dimensional QB-one who can both run and pass effectively-all year long. Enter Minnesota’s QB, Adam Weber who is the team’s second -leading rusher and who has completed over 62% of his passes. Minnesota can match Kansas through the air and Eric Decker, the Gophers’ best receiver with over 950 yard receiving should have a big day against a porous Kansas pass defense. Kansas will score some points here, but Minnesota is more balanced on offense.
Play: Minnesota (+9 Points)
New Jersey Devils (+110) at Dallas Stars
The Devils have played great defense all year and now have put together back-to-back 4-goal efforts as well. Back-up goalie Scott Clemmensen has been sensational as a fill-in for Martin Brodeur. He’s 13-5-1 with a 2.19 GAA. The Devils are one of 3 Eastern Conference teams giving up less than 90 goals so far this season. Dallas on the other hand ranks 27th in the NHL in defense.
Play: New Jersey Devils (+110)
Liebman
Mich St
Wisc
C-Stars Sports
(10-3 Top Play Run)
1000 Units Top Play Houston minus the points over Air Force
1000 Units Top Play Kansas minus the points over Minnesota
50 Units Georgia Tech minus the points over LSU
50 Units Pitt/Oregon St. under the total
50 Units Boston College/Vandy over the total
Wunderdog
Florida at New York Islanders
5 units Florida -135
New York has been playing absolutely awful. Thye went 1-10-2 in December. And now Rick DiPietro is listed as day-to-day with a groin injury. Florida hasn't been playing well themselves, but much better than New York. Their defense is a lot better and that should make the difference here. New York has allowed 4+ goals in 12 of their last 16 games! This game is a home game for the Islanders, but so what? New York is just 6-11 here this season and this has never been a great place for them. They have a losing record over the past decade at home when facing losing teams. I like the visiting team here a lot.
Yankee Capper
NCAA Football
5 Units - Georgia Tech -4
5 Units - Pittsburgh +2
3 Units - Air Force +4
3 Units - Boston College -3.5
NCAA Hoops
5 Units - Drake -7
5 Units - Memphis -18
5 Units - Duquesne -6
NHL
5 Units - San Jose Sharks -180
5 Units - Carolina Hurricanes -200
5 Units - Calgary Flames -190
5 Units - Anaheim Ducks -175
3 Units - Florida Panthers -140
3 Units - NJ Devils +110
3 Units - Atlanta/Carolina o6 -120
NBA
5 Units - Golden State Warriors -3
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
5 STAR SELECTION
Vanderbilt +3½ over Boston College
The Commodores are set to make their first bowl appearance in 26 years, as they take on the Golden Eagles Wednesday afternoon.
It wasn't pretty, but Vanderbilt was able to sneak their way into a bowl game for just the fourth time in school history and the first since losing to Air Force in the 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl.
"I'm excited, our staff is excited and our players are excited about getting a chance to experience a bowl game," head coach Bobby Johnson said. "Getting to play in the Gaylord Music City Bowl is a fantastic reward for this football team and Vanderbilt University."
The Commodores appeared to be a lock for the postseason following a 5-0 start to the season; however, things didn't go according to plan, as the team won just one of its final seven games to finish the regular-season at 6-6. Despite the poor stretch run, Vandy has a chance to win their second-ever postseason game and their first since defeating Auburn in the 1955 Gator Bowl.
As for Boston College, it used a couple of four-game win streaks down the stretch to help it reach the ACC title game for a second straight season. Like last season, though, the Eagles were denied a spot in a BCS game by Virginia Tech, dropping a 30-12 decision to the Hokies in the championship game.
Offensively, the Eagles have struggled to replace quarterback Matt Ryan, who has flourished as a rookie in the NFL after being selected third overall by the Atlanta Falcons in the 2008 draft. Chris Crane took over for Ryan this season and he had his up and downs, throwing for 10 touchdowns and rushing for seven, while being intercepted 13 times. The senior gun-slinger broke his collarbone against Wake Forest in late November, ending his season. Freshman Dominique Davis moved into a starting role for Crane and led the Eagles to two narrow wins before committing three turnovers in a loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. In five appearances this season, Davis has completed only 47% of his pass attempts for 551 yards, with four touchdowns and two picks. In the rushing game, BC is paced by a true freshman in Montel Harris, who has gained 832 yards and five scores in 12 games.
On the defensive side of the ball is where the Eagles have really excelled this season, holding opponent to under 19 ppg and a mere 273 total ypg. The unit has done a tremendous job against the run, limiting foes to only 92 ypg and meager 2.9 yards per carry. BC's pass defense has been every bit as good and the team leads the nation in interceptions, with 26. Five of those picks have also been returned for touchdowns.
The Commodores haven't had much success on offense this season, as they are scoring only 19 ppg on a dismal 261 total ypg. The team, tough, has been able to grind out some yards on the ground, averaging 138 ppg. Tailback Jared Hawkins leads the team with 580 yards on the ground. Quarterback Chris Nickson has also played a part in the squad's ground game, as he has rushed for 485 yards and a team-high 6 TDs. Nickson, however, hasn't done much with his arm, throwing for only 545 yards, with eight scores and three picks. Mackenzi Adams is another option for Vanderbilt and he has thrown for 882 yards, but with five touchdowns and eight picks. It is uncertain who will start this game, but chances are both will get their shots against BC's stout defense.
Vanderbilt has played solid defense, giving up only 20 ppg and less than 320 total ypg, while forcing 27 turnovers, including 18 interceptions. The defense has had good success bringing down opposing quarterbacks as well, registering 29 sacks on the season.
If the teams brought the same level of excitement and determination to this game, we’d lean to the Eagles; however, in Bowl Games, it’s all about motivation or lack thereof. While the Commodores are simply giddy about playing in a Bowl Game, Boston College is having to lower its expectations:
"The way it is, unless you win, you are going to a fifth- or sixth-tier bowl," coach Jeff Jagodzinski said after a 30-12 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.
That makes two straight years and consecutive title-game losses to Virginia Tech, a team Boston College beat during the regular season each season. So, the program still has gone to only one major bowl — Doug Flutie's Cotton on Jan. 1, 1985 — and has lost the game that would have created a BCS spot three of the last five seasons.
Another bowl road game for the Eagles, whose fans are not known for traveling well and are again coming off a disappointing end of the season.
"It's definitely tough to be in the same position," said wide receiver Brandon Robinson. "It's a tough situation. It's tough coming here two years in a row and falling short. It (stinks). It's my last ACC game and to come as far as we did and not win, it's just tough."
The BC offense remains in transition as redshirt freshman quarterback Dominique Davis gets only his third career start in the Music City Bowl.
The offense bogged down against Virginia Tech as the Hokies cut off the run and made Davis try to beat them. He didn't do it. "Make the quarterback beat you," BC coach Jeff Jagodzinski said of the Virginia Tech strategy. "That's what I would have done."
Vanderbilt has reached its first bowl since 1982 with defense, and isn’t about to make things easy on Boston College.
While the Eagles are on a great SU Bowl run, they barely escaped their last 2 Bowl Games in the winner’s circle and failed to cover the spread in both games.
Here, we have a number of reasons to fade the Eagles again.
First, we like to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year.
Teams like BC that were offensively challenged down the stretch and ended their season with a win and a loss have been over-rated as a Bowl favorite or very small underdog. This is confirmed by our SportsDataBase research, which resulted in a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team (not an underdog of more than 2 points) with 14+ days rest off a SU loss scoring less than 29 points in its last game, a SU win scoring less than 29 points in its game before that and scoring less than 29 points in each of its 2 games before that.
Such teams are 0-14 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
Another Bowl Handicapping strategy we implement is to play ON a Bowl underdog that is playing at home or close to home in state.
Such teams thrive in familiar surroundings in front of a partisan crowd, and are less likely to be distracted by nearby attractions.
Vandy will also benefit from getting leading rusher Jared Hawkins back from a foot injury.
We also note that SEC underdogs have been very strong against the ACC in Bowl games. Specifically, a POWER SYSTEM tells us:
Play ON a Bowl SEC underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an ACC opponent.
Perfect since at least 1980, these teams are 10-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average! NINE of the 10 underdogs won their Bowl Games outright. The only that failed to do so, lost by 1 points as a TD dog.
We also found that teams used to pulling upsets have been solid sides to back in Bowl Games. Specifically, December Bowl teams with 5+ season underdog SU wins and 27+ days rest are 7-0 ATS since at least 1980, including North Carolina State’s spread win over Rutgers on Monday.
Vanderbilt will win this game outright if it can pressure Davis into making mistakes. The Eagles aren’t going to run away and hide with their offense, so if a few drives end in turnovers, they’ll be in a four-quarter scrum. In Davis’ last high-profile game with Virginia Tech, he was picked off twice and sacked five times, while guiding his offense to just a single touchdown. The Commodores have enough talent, especially in the back seven, to produce similar results against this vanilla Eagle offense. Whatever talent gap exists should be closed by a more motivated and excited Commodores team playing essentially in front of a home crowd.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VANDERBILT 20 BOSTON COLLEGE 17
5 STAR SELECTION
Minnesota +9 over Kansas
The Jayhawks and Golden Gophers bring identical 7-5 records into their game late Wednesday.
Kansas is playing in a bowl game for the second consecutive year for the first time in its history. After a strong start to the 2008 season, Kansas went through a stretch in which it lost four of five games. The Jayhawks were able to beat arch-rival Missouri in their regular season finale.
Minnesota finished a dismal 1-11 in 2007, but turned things around in 2008 under the guidance of head coach Tim Brewster. While the Gophers won 7 games this season, the club enters the Bowl Game on a four-game losing streak that includes an embarrassing 55-0 home loss to Iowa in the regular-season finale.
Kansas is scoring nearly 33 ppg while racking up over 430 total ypg, led by QB Todd Reesing. He has completed 66% of his passes for over 3,500 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The ground attack of Kansas is mediocre at best, as the leading rusher, Jake Sharp, has recorded only 796 yards.
The Jayhawks are yielding 30 ppg on defense and over 400 total ypg this season, numbers that reveal the team has struggled defensively this season. Foes have found a great deal of success throwing the ball against the Jayhawks, who are allowing over 275 passing ypg.
Minnesota does not have an explosive offense, as the squad is averaging a modest 23 ppg and 322 total ypg. The Golden Gophers have struggled mightily in their efforts to run the football, as they are averaging just 105.8 ypg on the ground while netting 3.2 yards per carry. The offense is led by QB Adam Weber, who is capable of making plays with both his arm and his legs. Weber has completed 63% of his passes for over 2,500 yards and 14 touchdowns with only eight interceptions.
Opponents are averaging only 23 ppg against Minnesota, which is yielding 378 total ypg. The defense has also come up with a high total of 30 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.
The knee-jerk reaction of the public is to run away from a Bowl team that has lost its last 4 games, including a 55-0 home shutout, and throw their money at a team that just knocked off a good team in an upset. This provides us with a golden opportunity, as we look to play AGAINST a team that has already won its biggest game of the season and can’t accomplish much more with a Bowl victory.
Teams that have already had a moment that’s defined their season will likely be flat for a Bowl game, especially if favored. The classic example would be a team that pulled off an upset win over a rival in their last game or late in the season. If they can’t win the national championship or make another major statement in their Bowl game, the team will have little motivation. Kansas fits the bill here with their win over Missouri. A win here simply can’t match that.
Additionally, we like to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year. The bigger the win the previous Bowl game, whether by margin or meaningfulness, the harder it will be to capture that magic once again. The Jayhawks had a story-book season last year, losing just 1 game, and upsetting Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Again, there’s nothing they can do here to match what they did last season.
Our SportsDataBase research also shows that teams that ended the season with a win off an underdog loss, have had no business being a Bowl favorite of more than a TD. We have a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 7 points off a SU win in its last game and an underdog SU loss in its game before that.
These teams are 0-10 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
More number-crunching shows that big Bowl favorites have had a hard time covering the spread when satisfied with a previous Bowl victory. This POWER SYSTEM informs:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite of more than 6 points that won its last Bowl Game and not off 4 favorite SU wins vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS loss.
Qualifying teams are now 0-22 ATS just since 2003! We’ve already used this to win 3 games this Bowl season, as California, Missouri, and Rutgers all came up short in beating the spread in their Bowl Games.
Meanwhile, Minnesota shows up with plenty to prove, especially with the way their season ended.
"It is the most embarrassing game I've ever been a part of, in any sport," Gophers quarterback Adam Weber said bluntly.
"Words can't express the disappointment I feel as a football coach, the disappointment I have for Minnesotans and our university, just disappointed in my ability to put a team on the field that could compete," Gophers coach Tim Brewster said. "We just didn't get that done."
While the public will not get behind a Bowl team on a losing streak, that is usually where the smart money is. Road/neutral site Conference Championship/Bowl underdogs of more than 2 points off 3 SU losses vs. opponents not off 9 SU wins are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, killing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average! Last year provided a classic example with Oregon. The Ducks suffered a 3-game losing streak to end the regular season and were made a 5½-point underdog against South Florida. All the Ducks did was destroy the Bulls and beat the spread by FORTY points!
This conference matchup will also provide some line value here, as the public loves the Big 12 and hates the Big 10. Going AGAINST the Big 12 in Bowl Games this season, we are already 2-0, including the Alamo Bowl where Missouri struggled to put away Northwestern of the Big 10. At the right price, Big 10 Bowl teams have actually dominated Big 12 opponents under the conditions in yet another Bowl POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a Big 10 Bowl team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) with less than 43 days rest vs. a Big 12 team not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS win of more than 6 points.
With the Wildcats cover against the Tigers on Monday, these Big 10 teams are now 17-0 ATS vs. the Big 12 since at least 1980.
Our information from Arizona indicates that Kansas is not taking Minnesota seriously. They have no respect for the Gophers offense and are talking like all they have to do is show up for a guaranteed “W”. With huge edges in motivation and focus, underdogs should easily cover this large number, if not win the game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS 31 MINNESOTA 30