3 STAR SELECTION
LSU +4 over Georgia Tech
In the final game of 2008, the Tigers of the SEC will battled the Yellow Jackets of the ACC. LSU beat Ohio State to win the national title last season, the second time in the last five years that the team had captured college football's ultimate prize. Because of the recent success, this season's 7-5 record is certainly a disappointment for head coach Les Miles and his team.
Georgia Tech posted a 9-3 record under the guidance of first-year head coach Paul Johnson, who has made an immediate splash after coming over from Navy. Johnson endeared himself to fans of the Yellow Jackets by beating rival Georgia in the regular-season finale by a 45-42 final, the first time the club beat the Bulldogs since 2000.
Heading into this season, LSU was expected to have Ryan Perrilloux under center, but he was dismissed because of a violation of team rules, and there is no question that the offense suffered without him. Freshman Jarrett Lee took most of the snaps this season, but he struggled mightily in most games, having a record number of interceptions returned for touchdowns. There is reason for Tiger fans to be optimistic, however, as fellow freshman Jordan Jefferson was inserted into the lineup late in the regular season and had great success. Jefferson can get the job done with his arm and his legs, and the team has been busy getting him prepared for this Bowl Game.
Jefferson figures to hand the ball off to Charles Scott early and often, as the tailback rushed for over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns during the regular season
In this bowl game, LSU will face a Georgia Tech offense that relies almost solely on its running game to move the ball and score points. They have a great rushing attack, but the Tigers are doing a great job of stopping the run this season. LSU is allowing 26 ppg this season and 327 total ypg, numbers that aren't nearly as good as what most expected of the team entering this season.
Georgia Tech runs the same type of offensive system that Johnson featured during his time at Navy. Many wondered if implementing such an attack in the ACC was a foolish idea, but Johnson has silenced his critics. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 282 ypg on the ground, and their average of 5.6 ypc - proof of the tremendous success.
The top performer for the offense is tailback Jonathan Dwyer, who was recently named the ACC Player of the Year. He has rushed for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games while racking up seven yards per carry.
Josh Nesbitt, the team's quarterback, has competed only 47% of his throws for 658 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions, as he isn't much of a threat as a passer.
While the Georgia Tech offense garners most of the headlines because of its unique style, the team's defense deserves much credit for the success achieved this year as well. The Jackets are only allowing 19 ppg and 313 total ypg.
While many are touting this as a “home” game for the Yellow Jackets, the Tigers have had a lot of success here. In fact, LSU has been to three different bowls over the last four seasons, but they have not left the friendly confines of New Orleans or Atlanta domes since the 2004 trip to the Capital One Bowl in Orlando, Fla.
It was the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in 2005, the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans in 2006, the BCS national championship game in New Orleans last season and this season back to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl, where LSU (7-5) will meet No. 14 Georgia Tech (9-3) at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday in the Georgia Dome.
Over the same time period, LSU played in the Southeastern Conference Championship game in the Georgia Dome in 2005 and 2007 and played in the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans against Tulane in the 2007 regular season.
"We've been here a few times before, and Atlanta's pretty familiar now," senior defensive end Tyson Jackson said Saturday during a Chick-fil-A Bowl press conference here. "So we're not so much just being tourists and going around and looking at the landscape and stuff."
Atlanta and New Orleans have been business hubs for the Tigers, who are 10-1 in the two Dixie cities this decade. That's 5-1 in Atlanta with a 2000 Peach Bowl win over Georgia Tech, 2001 and 2003 SEC championship victories over Tennessee and Georgia, respectively, a 2005 SEC championship loss to Georgia, a 2005 Peach Bowl win over Miami and the 2007 SEC title victory over Tennessee. The New Orleans mark is 5-0 with Sugar Bowl victories in 2001 and 2006 over Illinois and Notre Dame, respectively, around the 2003 national championship win over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and two wins in 2007 - over Tulane and over Ohio State in the BCS title game.
"We travel here to the SEC championship game, and we recruit here regularly," LSU coach Les Miles said. "The opportunity to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl here in Atlanta is an advantage for us. A lot of the guys who we're recruiting, and a lot of the men on our team right now are looking at the comfortable confines of Atlanta and saying, 'Boy, that's a nice stop for us.'"
LSU practiced in the Georgia Dome Friday and will again Tuesday and Wednesday. It worked in the Atlanta Falcons' indoor facility 45 minutes outside of Atlanta on Saturday and Sunday and will again today.
"Our team was in the dome Friday morning and it was very familiar confines, comfortable turf and field," Miles said. "We enjoy Atlanta. This is a beautiful town."
SEC underdogs have also been very strong against the ACC in Bowl game. We have a Bowl POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Bowl SEC underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an ACC opponent.
Under those simple parameters, the SEC dogs are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, winning 9 of the games outright and clobbering the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average!
In all Bowl games involving SEC teams, underdogs have been very strong in recent years. This is shown by another POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a SEC/SEC opponent Bowl underdog of more than 2 points with less than 50 days rest vs. a BCS-Conference opponent not off a conference SU loss as an underdog of less than 10 points.
Since 2004, these teams are a strong 15-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
LSU also qualifies for a POWER SYSTEM that informs:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of less than 14 points/pick ‘em with 4+ season SU losses off 2 conference SU & ATS loss/pushes vs. an opponent not off 2 home favorite SU wins in its last 2 games.
Since 1980, these teams are 15-0 ATS, covering the spread by 12 ppg on average.
We also like to play AGAINST a team that has already won its biggest game of the season and can’t accomplish much more with a Bowl victory.
Teams that have already had a moment that’s defined their season will likely be flat for a Bowl game, especially if favored. The classic example would be a team that pulled off an upset win over a rival in their last game or late in the season. If they can’t win the national championship or make another major statement in their Bowl game, the team will have little motivation. We see such a scenario here, with the Jackets coming off a big win over their main rival, Georgia.
The last time these teams met, it was a Tigers win, and bowl favorites of more than a single point have not been strong on getting revenge for a Bowl loss in the previous meeting. We have this documented by a POWER SYSETM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 1 point seeking revenge for a non-home Bowl SU loss in the previous matchup vs. an opponent not off a conference road underdog SU win.
With West Virginia’s failure to cover the short number vs. North Carolina recently, these teams are now 0-21 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than a dozen ppg on average.
LSU still has athletes. The Georgia Tech option doesn’t always work against very fast, very disciplined defenses, and while LSU doesn’t always play sharp up front, with an NFL caliber defensive front and speed to burn in the back seven, it’ll be hard for Tech to consistently get wide and get into space to make the big plays. This is where the time factor kicks in. If this game was played a few weeks ago, Georgia Tech might win easily. With the weeks to rest up and prepare, the LSU defense should do enough to get by.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LSU 28 GEOGIA TECH 20
2 STAR SELECTION
Oregon State -1 over Pittsburgh
Two teams that fell just short of winning their respective conferences collide early on Wednesday when the Beavers meet the Panthers.
Oregon State’s season got off to a rocky start following a league loss at Stanford and a dismal performance at Penn State the next weekend. The team though, would then find great success, winning eight of its final 10 games of the regular-season, including a stunning upset of USC that provided a spark for the turnaround in late September. The Beavers rode a six-game winning streak into its regular-season finale, where had a chance to wrap up a share of the Pac-10 title and spot in the Rose Bowl with a win. Unfortunately for their fans, Oregon State were handled by arch rival Oregon, 65-38, despite playing the “Civil War” in front of their home crowd.
The Beavers are making their eighth bowl appearance in the last 10 season, and the team has won each of its last four postseason games under Mike Riley, including 39-38 besting of Missouri in the 2006 Sun Bowl.
As for the Panthers, they too started the 2008 season a bit shaky, dropping a 27-17 home game to Bowling Green in its opener. The Panthers responded by winning five straight and seven of their next eight games. The success put Pitt in position for a Big East title, but a 28-21 loss to eventual champion Cincinnati dashed those hopes. The Panthers, though, were able to overcome that loss with wins in their last two game , giving them their first nine-win regular-season campaign since 1982.
Oregon State’s success on offense this season was due in large part to rookie tailback Jacquizz Rodgers, who became the first freshman to be honored as the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league with over 1,200 yards. Rodgers missed the regular season finale with a fractured shoulder blade and is listed as doubtful for this game. While that is certainly a big blow, the Beavers do have a good enough passing attack to compensate for that loss. Lyle Moevao, who missed two games with an injury of his own, has played well for the Beavers, connecting on 61% of his tosses for over 2,300 yards. He has passed for 19 scores and run for two more, while throwing 11 interceptions.
Aside from a couple sub par performances, Oregon State’s defense has been nothing short of solid this season, holding opponents to just 323 total ypg. The unit has been sound versus both the run and pass, while forcing 20 turnovers. Getting to the quarterback has been a real strength of this unit, which has registered 34 sacks on the season.
For the Panthers, it all starts with tailback LeSean McCoy, who followed up an outstanding rookie campaign with an even better showing in 2008. McCoy, who set a Big East freshman record with 1,328 rushing yards last season, built off that performance by gaining over 1,400 yards on the ground this season. He has a nose for the end-zone as well, posting 21 rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Bill Stull threw for just over 2,300 yards on a 59% completion rate. Stull has only thrown nine touchdowns against the same amount of interceptions and that will be a problem if the Beavers show they can stop the run, as we expect them to do for the most part.
Pitt has fared well on defense this season, holding the opposition to 321 total ypg. The unit has been stingy versus both the run and pass, and has recorded 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.
The Beavers had become one of the Pac-10's top run defenses over the final two months of the season until Oregon ran through them for 384 yards. It's been the focus of bowl practices in preparation for Pitt's LeSean McCoy. At least Pitt doesn't run a spread offense, which Oregon State struggled against in losses to Oregon and Penn State, and the lack of mobility for Pitt quarterback Bill Stull takes away that problem.
There’s some question of how the Beavers will respond here off their loss to the Ducks that kept them out of Pasadena; however, we often look to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. Their loss to Oregon certainly fits the bill, and we expect Oregon State to be very determined and motivated here. Meanwhile, the information we are getting from El Paso is that the Pitt players are treating this as much more of a reward for the season and a bit more interested in having fun than treating the Bowl as a business trip.
One of our POWER SYSTEMS also supports a good rebound effort here from the Beavers. It states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not a favorite of 5+ points) off a home favorite SU loss in its last game and 3 SU wins before that.
Since 1985, these teams are a perfect 13-0 ATS. In last year’s qualifying game, West Virginia hammered Oklahoma 48-28 as a 7-point underdog.
Off 2 underdog victories as the Panthers are, teams have been in way over their heads against their Bowl Game opponents. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team off a road/neutral underdog SU win in its last game and an underdog SU win before that.
These teams are 0-9 SU & ATS, losing outright by 3 TDs, while failing to cover the spread by nearly 20 ppg on average since at least 1980. That’s as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, so the numbers may be even stronger than that.
With Oregon State a young team building for 2009 and looking to bounce back from the ugly loss to Oregon, coach Mike Riley should have no trouble motivating the Beavers versus Pittsburgh, especially with the Panthers doing some trash-talking about Oregon State in the days before this Bowl Game.
This game will ultimately be won and lost by the quarterbacks. Stull does not have a great supporting cast and he is incapable of carrying the Panthers if necessary. Moevao, on the other hand, will make some mistakes but at least makes up for it with some big plays as both a runner and passer. McCoy will keep the Panthers alive well into the fourth quarter but Oregon State's superior athleticism on both sides will eventually be the difference as we give the Beavers the edge here for the SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON STATE 28 PITTSBURGH 24
Blazer
3* Houston
3* Miinesota
3* Minn/Kan OVER
3* LSU
Sports Unlimited
7* Vandy
5* Minn
4* Ore St
Maddux Sports
3 units on Philadelphia & LA Clippers Over 189
3 units on Southern Illinois -6
3 units on Nevada +18.5
Probability
3* Oregon St.
3* Vandy
Special K
20* Michigan State
Goldsheet
1* Ga.Tech
3G Sports Full Card
10* Jayhawks
5* OrSt
5* LSU
5* Vandy
Hoops
5* Providence
5* Wisky
4* Pitt
Seabass
Steam 100* Akron
Dennis Hill
Oregon St
BC
Minn
LSU
Rocketman
3* Ul Lafayette
3* NC Greensborro
3* Wyoming
Opposite Action Plays
VANDERBILT
Ron Raymond
LSU
Tony George
KANSAS
KBHOOPS
NCAAF
3* Houston -3.5
NBA
4* Bulls +6.5
NCAAB
3* Michigan State +1
Trace Adams
2000* - Georgia Tech, 1000* - Minnesota, 500* - Oregon State, 500* - Michigan State (hoops)
My, my how things change during the course of the season. LSU was expected to be playing in a BCS Bowl when the season started, while Georgia Tech came into the season with plenty of question marks under new coach Paul Johnson.
Tonight, all the question marks surroung the Bayou Bengals if you ask me, as LSU closed the season with losses in 4 of their final 6, failing all 6 against the spread!
Georgia Tech is soaring right now, as Johnson is up for coach of the year, the Techsters are off their first win in years over arch-rival Georgia, and they get to play this game in the near by confines of the Georgia Dome! Win, win, win, and more win for the Yellow Jackets!
This is a "statement game" for Georgia Tech, and it should be noted that the Yellow Jackets have covered 5 of their 6 tries when installed as the favorite.
LSU has failed both tries when catching points this year, and as demoralized as they enter this game, I just don't see any speach Les Miles can give to rally his troups in this spot.
Finally, Paul Johnson is now 44-23-1 against the spread his last 68 lined games at Georgia Tech, and Navy combined! Make that 45-23-1 after tonight's game.
Take Georgia Tech
2000♦ - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 7:30 pm
I know Minnesota comes into this bowl game having lost their last 4, after racing to a 7-1 start, and I know the Golden Gophers did lose to Iowa 55-0 to close the regular season, but I also know that Kansas is OVER-RATED this year, and you saw how the first Big 12 double-digit rep fared the other night when Missouri nearly lost outright to Big 10 Northwestern.
I am telling you, the spot is prime for Minnesota to salvage their season with a tremendous effort tonight against the Jayhawks.
Kansas has been an away favorite just once this season, and they should have lost that game at lowly Iowa State!
Minnesota fired their offensive line coach, and that can only mean that coach Brewster's team will have the element of surprise on their side in this spot.
This is just too many points to lay.
1000♦ - Minnesota Golden Gophers - 6:00 pm
Pittsburgh did me a solid back on November 2nd when they were my top-rated play, and defeated West Virginia. The Panthers followed that win with a blowout of UConn the following week, and they are feeling good about themselves as they enter El Paso as the small underdog against Pac 10 rep Oregon State.
Just not sure the Panthers are going to be able to match scores with the Beavers in this spot, especially if Oregon State uses their bitter disappointment of missing out on the Rose Bowl as motivation here.
Mike Riley is a perfect 3-0 straight up in bowl games at Corvallis, winning each of the last 2 season's bowl bids with the Beavs.
Pittsburgh is making their 1st bowl appearence under Dave Wannstedt, and I have seem Coach Mustache enough to know, just when you think you can bank on him, he fails to deliver.
I will lay the small chalk, and go with the Beavers in this one.
500♦ - Oregon State Beavers - 2:00 pm
In college basketball, time for Tubby's Gophers to take it on the chin.
Minnesota is off to a perfect 12-0 start, but I am not so sure they have been "seasoned" enough to deal with the Spartans today at home.
Michigan State has played a hellacious early season schedule, and they have survived in tact with a 9-2 straight up mark. Izzo's troups took both off the Golden Gophers last season, including a 78-73 win at Williams Arena.
More of the same today, as the Spartans take care of business on the road in this battle.
500♦ - Michigan State Spartans - 12:00
Billy Coleman
College Foot for New Year's Day
4** Georgia -7.5
4* V.Tech + 2
3* Penn St-USC under 45
NBA
4* Orlando-Chi under 202
3* Houston -8.5
College
4* Evansville + 7.5
3* UNLV + 13
3* Utah st -12.5