LT Profits
Kansas State @ Louisville Under 56.5
Kansas State has yet to face a quality opponent while Louisville struggled the only time they faced one, so do not look for these clubs to eclipse this high total in this ESPN Wednesday special.
Sure, the Wildcats have scored 45 and 69 points respectively in their first two games, but consider the opposition. The opened against North Texas, one of the weakest teams from one of the weakest conference in the land (Sun Belt), and they followed up with a rout of Division 1AA Montana State. Now as bad as the Big East has been this year, this is still a step up in class for Kansas State, and the Louisville defense did play well vs. Kentucky in the Cardinals opener.
San Diego Padres +150
It is obvious that the Colorado Rockies will not make another miracle World Series run this year, and their starter Jeff Francis has had trouble with their opponent today, the San Diego Padres, so it looks like the Pads hold some value at this nice price.
Now granted, Francis has actually pitcher very well lately with a 2.79 ERA in his last three starts. However, the Rockies went 0-3 in those starts, due mainly to an inept offense that is not getting any better. Colorado is batting just .236 as a team over the last10 games, and considering that the Rockies are just 4-9 the last 13 times that Francis has faced the Padres, we do not expect him to get enough run support today either.
Now young Josh Greer has given a fine account of himself in his first three major league starts for San Diego, allowing exactly two runs in each of those outings. He is coming off of his first career Quality Start, as he worked seven innings vs. the Giants, and he did face these Rockies in his major league debut, allowing five hits while posting five strikeouts in five innings.
Finally, the Padres have picked things up offensively lately after being dormant all year, as they are batting .291 as a team the last 10 games. Look for them to score enough runs to pull the upset.
Pick: Padres +150
The problem for Louisville is the offense, which is in transition after losing so many skill position players from a year ago. The Cardinals mentioned just two points vs. Kentucky, which was obviously a defensive score that has nothing to do with the offense, and their 51-point outburst last week was vs. an outclassed Tennessee Tech club.
We look for the Cards to struggle more like they did in their opener vs. this Big 12 opponent, and we do not see these schools getting out of the 40s here.
Pick: Kansas State, Louisville Under 56.5
Wild Bill
Kansas State -3½ (5 units)
Jim Feist
CHW White Sox vs NYY Yankees
Take:NYY Yankees
The White Sox are holding onto a slim lead in the AL Central over the Minnesota Twins. The Sox had better get their bullpen in order if they plan on staying in first place. Despite sweeping a DH against the Tigers on Sunday and losing to the Yankees on Monday, the pen is just 2-2 in September with a 6.44 era. More disturbing is the fact that the bullpen is 1-1 with a 10.70 era in the last seven games. "The bullpen needs to get better," Guillen said. "We need to add people to the bullpen, but it is shrinking. I need to do my job and put the best guy out there." It doesn't get any easier for the Sox in New York where they have lost seven of the last 10 trips to Yankee Stadium. Lance Broadway starts today for the Sox, he has a 1-0 record with a 8.49 era. Broadway has been in five games with the Sox, but has only started one once. Both lefties and righties are hitting well over .300 against Broadway this year with a total of .346 opponent batting average. The Yankees counter with Phil Hughes who is 0-4 on the year with a 9.00 era. Neither one of these starters are expected to last long in this game and we fully expect that. However, considering the disarray in the Chicago bullpen, coupled with the fact that they have not done well in NY, we'll take the Yankees here with the short price.
Jimmy The Moose
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The Padres lost another one last night and are now 2-6 in their last 8 games. In their last 53 games vs. a left-handed starter the Padres are 17-36. San Diego is 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Padres are also 3-9 in their last 12 divisional games. The Rockies are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Colorado is 5-2 in Francis last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies offense was a lost better last night and should be good enough to win this afternoon. Play on the Colorado Rockies -.
Marc Lawrence
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals and Reds meet in the Queen City in Game Two of this three-game series this evening when Todd Wellemeyer matches serves with Aaron Harang. For openers, Wellemeyer enters tonight's game with a solid 2.62 ERA on the road this season. In addition he's in strong KW form on the road with 8 walks and 31 strikeouts in his last eight road efforts. He is also 3-2 with a 1.74 ERA in his MLB career during the month of September. On the flip side, Harang owns a 5.27 ERA at home and is 5-10 at night with a 5.46 ERA this season. Back the better team and the better arm here tonight.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Los Angeles at PITTSBURGH
Let's see, you have won 14 of your last 16 games. You have won the first 2 of a 4 game set by scores of 8-2, and 6-2. You have gone 4-1 against your opponent this season, and 15-5 overall against your opponent since the 2006 season.
Hmmm, seems to us a "no-brainer" to back the Dodgers on the RUN LINE against the Pirates tonight.
Oh, did we mention tonight's starter Chad Billingsley has won his last 3 starts, and has allowed just 4 earned runs in nearly 20 frames of work?
Compare that to Pirates' hurler Zach Duke who has gone just 4-8 at home this year, and is a career 1-3 against Los Angeles.
You can see why we are bullish on the Dodgers on the RUN LINE tonight, as LA is humming at the right time, and the lowly Pirates aren't standing in their way tonight.
Play on LA on the RUN LINE.
5♦ LOS ANGELES RUN LINE
Karl Garrett
Houston at FLORIDA -165
Talk about bad timing...Hurricane Ike has totally disturbed this Houston team that was on a 14-1 run before having to play a pair of make-up games at Miller Park.
You all know the results, as Houston was no-hit, and one-hit by the Cubs, and then followed those losses up with a 5-1 setback last night at Florida, in a game in which they came up with just 5 hits.
The G-Man feels the UNDER is the way to look in this Astros-Marlins contest, as Houston has now played LOW in 4 straight, and 8 of 11, while Florida has held LOW in 3 of their last 4 games.
Rodriguez, and Nolasco are capable of tying one on tonight, and 3 of the 4 season series meetings have played UNDER the total.
G-Man has to stick with the eye-popping trends.
Take the low between the 'Stros, and the Marlins.
4♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Boston +115 at TAMPA BAY
Tim Wakefield is pitching against the Rays, it's definitely a play on him as he's owned Tampa Bay in his career.
The veteran knuckleballer is 19-4 in 40 appearances against the Rays with a 3.10 ERA. And even though the Red Sox have lost his two starts against them this season, he's only allowed six runs on 11 hits in 13 innings of work.
On the other side is Matt Garza who has a 2.74 ERA at home, and the Rays have lost two of his last three at home and four of his last five overall. He got beat by the Yankees on Saturday and hasn't looked as sharp late in the season like he did early.
Play Boston behind the kuckleballer. Wakefield will deliver a strong outing in this one.
3♦ BOSTON
Sports Advisors
Kansas State (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ATS)
High-flying Kansas State treks to Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville to take on the Cardinals in a non-conference showdown.
The Wildcats haven’t been challenged in the first two weeks of the season, dominating North Texas and Montana State by a combined score 114-16. Kansas State’s fast start to 2008 is in sharp contrast to its freefall at the end of last season, when the team dropped its final four games (0-4 ATS) by an average of 21½ points per contest. But the improvement in QB Josh Freeman has ignited the offense, as the junior has accounted for nine touchdowns (five passing, four rushing) and has completed 76 percent of his throws for 520 yards with no interceptions.
Louisville opened the season with a disappointing 27-2 home loss to instate rival Kentucky, falling as a 3½-point favorite, but rebounded to crush Tennessee Tech 51-10 on Sept. 6 in a non-lined contest. The Cardinals’ defense, which was 84th in the nation last season, is fourth so far this year allowing just 193 yards per game. However, new QB Hunter Cantwell has struggled to this point, completing just 53 percent of this throws for 355 yards, two TDs and three INTs.
Cantwell did lead Louisville to a 24-6 win at Kansas State back in 2006 when he started in place of an injured Brian Brohm. He completed 18-of-26 passes for 173 yards with a TD and an INT, as Louisville covered as a 14-point road chalk.
Kansas State has been tough early in the season in recent years, going 24-11 ATS in its last 35 September contests. The Wildcats are also 4-1 ATS in their last five after a bye week. Otherwise the ATS numbers all negative for K-State, including 5-12 on the road, 5-13 in non-conference games and 1-4 overall.
The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS following their last seven bye weeks, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-5 at home, 1-4 in non-conference play and 1-4 following a straight-up win.
For K-State, the over is on streaks of 12-4 overall in lined action, 22-8 on the road, 9-3 on grass and 5-2 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Louisville has topped the total in four straight games following a bye week and seven of 10 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (83-68) at Chicago Cubs (91-58)
The Cubs will try to make it six in a row over the Brewers when they send Jason Marquis (10-8, 4.36 ERA) to the mound to face Ben Sheets (13-8, 2.97) at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs scored a 5-4 win on Tuesday behind the pitching of Ryan Dempster, and they have won seven of the 11 meetings this season with the Brewers. Despite Chicago’s win last night, the road team has still won eight of the 11 contests this year.
Lou Pineilla’s squad is riding a five-game winning streak and is on additional hot runs of 30-14 overall, 51-21 at Wrigley, 10-2 on Wednesdays and 21-9 in Marquis’ last 30 home starts.
Milwaukee came up short in Dale Sveum’s debut as interim manager Tuesday, and the Brewers have now lost 12 of their last 15 overall, including eight of their last nine and five in a row. They trail the Mets by a half-game in the N.L. wild-card race and are basically out of the N.L. Central contest, trailing the Cubs by nine games.
Sheets is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA on the road in 2008. Milwaukee has struggled lately with Sheets on the hill, losing six of his last nine, even though he’s blanked the opposition in four of those contests. On Thursday, the veteran right-hander gave up five runs on nine hits in Philadelphia, losing 6-3.
Sheets is 10-8 with a 3.97 ERA in 25 career starts against the Cubs, but he got pounded back on July 29, allowing six runs on 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-1 loss.
Marquis is 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his last three outings and held the Reds to two runs on five hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 14-9 win in Cincinnati in his most recent start back on Sept. 6. In 16 career appearances against Milwaukee, Marquis is 5-7 with a 4.27 ERA, and in his lone outing against the Brewers this season, he allowed five runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 10-7 loss back on April 29.
Milwaukee is just 1-4 in Sheets last five outings against teams with a winning record, but 6-2 in his last eight against the N.L. Central and 14-6 in his last 20 on the highway. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 17-8 in their last 25 with Marquis facing division foes.
The over is 5-0-3 in the Brewers last eight overall, 6-2-2 in their last 10 on the road and 18-8-1 when Sheets pitches against division rivals, but otherwise the under is on runs of 6-2 in Sheets’ last eight overall and 14-6-5 in the Brewers’ last 25 versus right-handed pitching. For Chicago, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 against right-handed pitching and 5-2 at Wrigley.
Finally, the over is 21-8-4 in the last 33 series meeting between these rivals and 5-2 in Sheets’ last seven outings against the Cubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (89-62) at Tampa Bay (89-60)
The Rays pulled back into sole possession of first place in the A.L. East with a 2-1 win over the Red Sox on Tuesday and in the rubber match of the series tonight, Boston sends knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (9-10, 3.92 ERA) to the mound opposite Tampa’s Matt Garza (11-9, 3.60) at Tropicana Field.
Boston prevailed 13-5 in Monday’s series opener to pull even in the division race but lost a thriller on Tuesday when the Rays’ Dioner Navarro singled with the bases loaded in the ninth inning to get the 2-1 win. Tampa Bay has won seven of eight home games against the Red Sox in 2008, and the home team is 15-3 in the 18 matchups between these two this season.
The Red Sox have won 15 of their last 22 dating back to Aug. 24, going 6-3 on the road during this stretch. Additionally, Terry Francona’s team is on runs of 11-5 in divisional games, 7-3 against right-handed starters and 10-4 on Wednesdays, but just 3-8 in Wakefield’s last 11 roadies and 3-13 in his last 16 when facing a team with a winning mark.
Tampa is just 4-7 in its last 11 overall, but the Rays are on runs of 50-15 at home, 21-10 against right-handed starters and 5-2 when Garza toes the rubber at home against teams with a winning record.
Wakefield is coming off his best start of the season, as he blanked the Blue Jays for eight innings on three hits in a 7-0 home win. However, the veteran right-hander is just 3-6 with a 4.67 ERA on the road and 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three overall. On the bright side, Wakefield has owned the Rays in his career, going 19-4 in 40 games with a 3.10 ERA. The Red Sox have lost both his starts against Tampa this season, but he’s allowed just six runs on 11 hits over 13 innings in the two outings.
Garza is 7-3 with a 2.74 ERA in front of the home fans, but the Rays have lost two of his last three at home and four of his last five overall. On Saturday, the right-hander gave up three runs on six hits in five innings of a 6-5 loss in New York. Garza is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA in five career starts against Boston, and this year the Rays are 2-1 in his three outings versus the Red Sox (2-0 at home).
The over is 8-4 in Boston’s last 12 road games, but the under dominates all other aspects for the Red Sox, including runs of 10-3 against right-handed starters, 26-12-4 when Wakefield pitches on the road and 7-2 when he pitches on Wednesdays. Meanwhile the over is 12-5 in Tampa’s last 17 overall, 7-1 in its last eight at home, 10-3 in its last 13 against right-handed starters and 10-3 in the third game of a series.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on streaks of 6-1 when Wakefield faces the Rays and 5-0 when he pitches in Tampa.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Matt Fargo
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
The Tigers have pretty much tossed in the towel and they want nothing more than this season to be done with. Expectations were high coming into the season as World Series was coming out of the mouths of many but a slow start put an end to that fairly quickly. Detroit has lost six straight games and the first two in this series to drop its recent road mark to 7-13 over its last 20 games. The pitching has been horrendous of late, allowing an average of 7.1 rpg over its last 19 games.
The Rangers, whose season is over as well, are not playing to end the year but playing to try and forge some momentum into next season. Texas is 8-5 over its last 13 games including wins in five of its last seven games at home. The Rangers are just two games under .500 on the season and the goal is to close at .500 or better. After dropping the first five games to Detroit this season, Texas has won the last three while averaging 8.3 rpg. They are 10-4 in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
Detroit sends Freddy Garcia to the mound who will be making his first Major League start since June 8, 2007. The Tigers just signed him a month ago and both are looking into what he has to offer. He made one start in AAA Toledo, lasting just three innings and one start in A Lakeland, lasing just two innings. He is not going to go long in this game even if he is pitching well and that means the bullpen, which has a 6.99 ERA over the last 10 games, will be seeing a lot of action.
The Rangers counter with Dustin Nippert who has rebound very well from a poor first outing with the club. He has allowed three runs or fewer over his last three outings and has a 0.75 ERA over his last two starts, allowing just one run in 12 innings of work. Most of his work has come out of the bullpen and he has a very solid 3.77 ERA at home in seven appearances including two starts. This is his first ever appearance against the Tigers which is a big edge. Play Texas Rangers 1.5 Units
John Fina
Selection: Los Angeles Angels -120
Reason: Put us down on the Los Angeles Angels (-120) for our Free MLB Selection on Wednesday. Today the Los Angeles Angels will be on the road as they take on the Oakland Athletics. We will side with the Los Angeles Angels! One reason why we will side with the Los Angeles Angels is because they will be sending to the mound the starting pitcher who has been pitching a lot better as of late. This tells it all... The Los Angeles Angels Starting Pitcher (Jered Weaver) has a 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Oakland Athletics Starting Pitcher (Greg Smith) has a 7.13 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Los Angeles Angels are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Oakland Athletics (when playing in Oakland), and should be able to get another win tonight! Take the Los Angeles Angels
Dave Cokin
NYM Mets @ WAS Nationals
Take WAS Nationals
The Mets blew the NL East last season with a late collapse, and they're looking like they might be at it again. The Mets have now dropped four of five to the Braves and Nationals, and it's not like they've got a stopper going tonight in Brandon Knight. The Nationals seem to be enjoying the spoiler role and rookie Shairon Martis was terrific last start. I'll go for the home dog odds with Washington.
The Gold Medal Club
Boston @Tampa Bay
PLAY ON TAMPA BAY -125
We take note the Rays are 7-1 vs Boston at home this year, and it maybe related to the facts that Boston is 2-10 in dome games this season and 4-14 on the artificial turf.Wakefield is a much better pitcher at home as we note he is 3-6 on the road this season. If the Knuckle ball isn't happening tonight and he has to rely on his fastball he is in trouble.Garza has been solid 7-3 at home this season with a 2.74 era and a whip of 1.16.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants +190
We'll bet the Giants at a great price here tonight. The Giants have won 8 of their last 11 games and 7 of their last 10 within their division. They have won 4 straight game 3's of a series as well. The Giants are 8-1 in Sanchez's last 9 starts during game 3 of a series and 10-2 in Sanchez's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Diamondbacks are 3-8 in their last 11 overall, 4-10 in their last 14 vs. a team with a losing record, 1-6 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series, and 2-8 in their last 10 vs. National League West. The Diamondbacks are also just 1-4 in Webb's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Take the Giants.
DUNKEL
NY Mets at Washington
The Nats look for their third straight win ov the Mets and take advantage of New York's 17-28 road record as a favorite between -100 and -150. Washington is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17
Game 951-952: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 15.083; Colorado (Hernandez) 13.330
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingley) 16.807; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.223
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-185); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 17.062; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.745
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 957-958: Houston at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Backe) 15.218; Florida (Nolasco) 17.128
Dunkel Line: Florida by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-160); Under
Game 959-960: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 13.884; Cincinnati (Harang) 13.645
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under
Game 961-962: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Knight) 14.961; Washington (Martis) 16.308
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Under
Game 963-964: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Sheets) 13.407; Cubs (Marquis) 14.673
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); N/A
Game 965-966: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.591; Arizona (Webb) 14.181
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-210); Over
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 15.481; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.750
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bass) 15.947; Toronto (Purcey) 15.044
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Over
Game 971-972: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 13.347; Cleveland (Lee) 15.195
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-165); Under
Game 973-974: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.882; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.924
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under
Game 975-976: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Garcia) 13.830; Texas (Nippert) 14.510
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 14
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Over
Game 977-978: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.552; Kansas City (Meche) 17.003
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-150); Over
Game 979-980: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.481; Oakland (Smith) 15.418
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over
NCAAF
Kansas State at Louisville
The Wildcats have rolled up big home wins over lightly-regarded North Texas (45-6) and I-AA Montana State (69-10), but are just 7-19 ATS in their first road game of the season. Louisville is the underdog pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has K-State favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+4 1/2). Here are all of the weekday games. (Note: I will post this weekend's games later today.)
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17
Game 301-302: Kansas State at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 93.693; Louisville 91.429
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 2; 62
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 4 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+4 1/2); Over