Vegas Experts
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay simply will not give up first place in the AL East to the Red Sox and their big head-to-head edge in games played at Tropicana Field this season leads us to siding with them again tonight. Boston is just 1-7 when visting the Rays this season and after a walkoff loss like last night, we look for them to get shelled tonight. Matt Garza has already beaten Tim Wakefield twice this season.
Play on: Tampa Bay
Jeff Benton
We came up a little short with the Brewers against the Cubs last night. We’ll bounce back on Wednesday, though, by playing the Dodgers on the run-line against the Pirates.
So much to love about this selection. First off, Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers are scorching hot right now, having won 14 of their last 16 games, including the first two of this series in Pittsburgh by the combined tally of 14-4. During this 16-game run, L.A. is 8-2 on the road, with the two defeats being by scores of 4-0 and 1-0. In fact, take away those two shutouts, and the Dodgers have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their 14 wins, scoring between 5 and 8 runs in every single game. Talk about consistency.
On the other hand, you’ve got the Pirates, who have lost 19 of their last 25 overall (eight of 11 at home), and all but three of those 19 defeats have been by more than one run!
Then there’s the enormous pitching advantage the Dodgers have tonight with Chad Billingsley (15-10, 3.02 ERA) opposing Zach Duke (5-14, 4.84 ERA). Now, in fairness, Duke has been terrific his last three times out, allowing just eight runs (four earned) in 21 2/3 innings. But he’s only 1-2 over the three outings. Billingsley, meanwhile, is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts, winning by a combined score of 20-6! What’s more, the right-hander has recorded a quality start 12 times in his last 15 outings, including the last seven in a row.
Throw in the fact that the Dodgers have now won four straight against the Pirates by scores of 6-2, 8-2, 8-1 and 11-2 – and they’re 24-6 in their last 30 games at PNC Park – and this one’s a no-brainer. Dodgers cruise to another easy victory!
5♦ DODGERS -1 1/2 runs
Tony George
Kansas City -144
Why is it my hometown Royals always play great in September every year and stink it up during the meat and poatoes of the regular season? None the less it provides value here tonight with a home game against Seattle who KC hammered last night 6-3.Gil Meche gets the start for KC and is the ace of the bullpen. Although his win / loss record does not jump out at you, he has pitched great all year but has had no run support to back him up. Not the case tonight. KC is batting .315 as a team their last 11 games and are 8-3 in those games. Seattle is deplorable and the only team in MLB with a 100 million dollar payroll not to exceed .500 ball, thus all the firings and non-chemistry on this club. KC continues to roll at home with their ace on the hill.
Play Kansas City
JB's Computer Picks
Cleveland Indians -165
Florida Marlins -165
Arizona Diamondbacks -210 * * *
Best Bet
Profitsportspicks
Kansas State vs Louisville
Pick: Louisville +4 -105
Minnesota vs Cleveland
Pick: Minnesota +162
Milwaukee vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Milwaukee +106
Dr Bob
Kansas St. (-4.0) 26 LOUISVILLE 22
Louisville is really struggling offensively due to a lack of experience at the receiver position. Quarterback Hunter Cantwell entered this season averaging 8.0 yards per pass play on 168 career pass plays in 3 seasons as a backup to Brian Brohm, but he’s averaged only 4.6 yppp on 70 pass plays this season without last year’s top 8 pass catchers. The Cardinals’ offense was held scoreless in their 2-27 loss to Kentucky and the 51 points scored against Tennessee Tech in week 2 is misleading since the 6.5 yards per play gained by Louisville in that game was done so against a Tech defense that would allow 7.0 yppl on the road to an average team. Louisville has turned around their defense, which has allowed just 3.3 yards per play in two games and held Kentucky’s good rushing attack to just 76 yards at 2.5 yards per rushing play in week 1. Kansas State has a solid defense that should limit Louisville’s struggling attack while Josh Freeman and the Kansas State offense, averaging 6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team should do a better job of moving the ball despite Louisville’s improved stop unit. My ratings actually favor Kansas State by 9 points in this game, but Kansas State applies to a negative 12-51-2 ATS situation wile Louisville applies to a 121-51-1 ATS early season home underdog situation. I’ll pass on the side, but I’ll lean with the Under in this game.
Info Plays
3* on Baltimore Orioles +162
26-year-old Brian Bass has been solid this season with a 4.84 ERA. He makes his second start of the season for the Orioles tonight after allowing 1earned run in his first start last week. Toronto was making a run to end the season, but they have cooled off by losing three of their last four contests. Toronto is 19-34 when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles have won back-to-back games now with solid starts from their young pitchers in Rhadamis Liz and Chris Waters, who threw a complete game shutout last night. The Orioles are hoping Bass can continue this trend, and we feel he can. We’ll take a shot on Bass and the Orioles at this great value after winning two in a row. Bet Baltimore on the road.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on New York Mets -120
The Mets are a solid value play tonight against the Nationals. New York will get a taste of victory tonight after falling to the Nationals 1-0 yesterday. Washington is 22-48 when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Mets are 61-36 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Mets are 18-6 in their last 24 games played at Washington. So you can see how last night’s loss was such a rarity. New York is 10-5 against the Nationals this season. Cash in with the Mets as a small favorite against a terrible Washington squad.
SPORTS REPORTER
KANSAS STATE over *LOUISVILLE by 1
The Petrino-to-Kragthorpe contrast at Louisville has been stark. If the Cards don't pick it up soon, the spoiled, angry, entitled Papa Johners might send the East Carolina security crew after their head coach. Lots of offense from the 2007 versions of these teams landed in the NFL this year. Unfortunately for Louisville?s defense, K-State's yardage-making QB Freeman remains while Hunter Cant-Do It-Well hasn't been much more than a name with a number for Louisville. KANSAS STATE, 23-22.
Power Sweep
Kansas St at LOUISVILLE - KSU held the nation’s top scoring off (#8 UL) to less than half its avg & fewest pts in nearly a yr in their last & only meeting in ‘06 (Prince’s 1st yr as HC). We did win a 3H LPS as the Cards (-14) won on the road 24-6 & it was QB Cantwell’s 1st road start and he hit 18-26 for 173 with UL having a 401-247 yd edge. UL has just 9 starters back and while KSt has just 12 they also have a large JUCO infusion like the days of old. The Cards were 16-2 ATS at home prior to Kragthorpe but just 1-5 under him. KSt, however, has gone 1-6 ATS vs non-conf BCS tms away from Manhattan.
Winning Points
Kansas State over Louisville* by 1
We are not enamored with the polish of the Wildcats, particularly away from Manhattan. But until we see some kind of positive results from the Big East, all shadings must be against that grouping in competitive non-conference affairs. KANSAS STATE 28-27.
Andre Gomes
PHI (-130) vs ATL
The Phillies are coming to this game with an huge momentum, as they come from a sweep against the Brewers, which not only put them closer to the Mets in the fight for the division, but also put them with an equal record to the Brewers in the fight for the NL Wildcard. Today they will begin a very important series against the Braves and they will send their most consistent pitcher: Jamie Moyer. The southpaw has been managing to get very important quality starts, helping the Phillies to win pivotal games, as for example he is 3-0 with 2.50 ERA on his last 3 outings against the Cubs, the Mets and the Brewers, with all of them being contender teams.
On the other side, the Braves are also in a good phase with 5 wins in their last 6 games and they will send today James Parr, who will make his 3rd start for the team. He had two great performances in his first two outings, by not allowing any run in 12 innings and that's the main reason why the Braves don't have an higher price for today. However we have to remember that he faced in those outings the Nationals and the Rockies and these two teams are far from the level he will face today against the Phillies, especially when they are coming from a sweep against the Brewers.
Atlanta hasn't been managing to get good results vs LHP lately, with the Braves being 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs LHP. Both teams are coming from an off day and the Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day. This series is extremely important for the Phillies and they will use their best pitcher today, who is 11-4 against the money line in road games this season, against a team who is terrible after an upset, as they are just 4-15 against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Phillies to win in here. Double Dime Play.
SportsKingz
ST. LOUIS -115
David Malinsky
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Sep 17, 2008 7:10PM
PICK: 4* CINCINNATI
We want to get behind Aaron Harang here. And with his 4-16/4.96 in the pitching forms, we are among the only ones looking in that direction. That is part of why a St. Louis team mired in an 0-6 slide is a road favorite, and also why we are seeing a full “9” for this Total with two slumping offenses involved. So we will play both Harang options in this game, and use some sequencing notions to our advantage.
The Cardinals have been held to three runs or less five times in their losing streak, including four deuces. They have scored more than five runs one time in their last 11 games, and in that one only reached six. So here is how it works. If the Cardinals score five runs or less, we can not get hurt much. A 5-4 St. Louis victory leaves us with an 0-1-1, but any other score with the Cardinals on five is no worse than a split. Make the St. Louis production four or less, which we project, and there is a good chance to make a serious profit.
Which takes us to Harang. The Cincinnati right-hander has been one of the most consistent performers in the Major Leagues in recent years, including a combined 32-17/3.75 in the 2006-07 seasons. So does the fact that his current ERA is more than a full run above that cause us concern? No. The problem is that he has had to battle through an injury that was worse than originally thought, which led to an awful beginning to the season. That works for us, because his early numbers were so bad that there are not enough innings left in the season to correct them. As such, an outstanding current run has gone un-noticed by the markets. He has worked to a solid 2.45 over his last five outings, a span in which he has allowed only 28 hits in 33 innings, while sporting a solid ratio of 26 strikeouts vs. only nine walks. When competitors like him get on a roll we can confidently back them to make up for lost time, and the Harang we expect to see tonight is one that will pitch as though the playoffs were on the line. With the bullpen well-set behind him, we can confidently call for the slumping Cardinal offense to be held in check again, and by working both ends of this equation a weak Cincinnati lineup is reduced to being a lesser concern.
Ben Burns
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under
Yesterday's game finished with nine runs. However, it easily could have been lower-scoring as it was only 1-0 in the bottom of the sixth inning. The Reds have now played nine straight games which produced nine combined runs or less. As for the Cardinals, they haven't been hitting well at all and have now seen nine of their last 11 games produce nine combined runs or less. With both starters in excellent current form, this evening's matchup has the makings of another relatively low-scoring affair. Harang has seen the 'under' go 3-0 his last three starts and has a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in those games. They had final scores of 3-2, 4-3 and 3-2. Last time out, he allowed just one (unearned) run through seven innings. While he hasn't been getting any run support, Wellemeyer has been even better. Over his last three starts, he's posted an outstanding 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Those games all finished below the number with scores of 3-0, 5-3 and 3-2. Consider the UNDER (1*)
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Los Angeles Dodgers -172
The Dodgers have won back-to-back games at Pittsburgh and I like them to make it three straight tonight. The Dodgers are an impressive 42-13 in the last 55 meetings and 24-6 in the last 30 meetings in Pittsburgh . The Dodgers are 14-2 in their last 16 overall and 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Pirates are 4-12 in their last 16 home games and they haven't been able to buy a win with Duke on the hill. We won't bother listing him because I think the Pirates would lose with Nolan Ryan on the mound in his prime right now, but the Pirates are 6-21 in Dukes last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-6 in Dukes last 6 home starts. Take the Dodgers.
Jorge Gonzalez
LA DODGERS -1½
The Los Angeles Dodgers are on fire winning 14 of their 16 games. They are 10-1 after allowing two or less runs in the previous game. The Dodgers are in the lead of The National League West Division with a record of 79-72. Case Blake has been an additional player besides Manny Ramirez that has turned the Dodger’s season around. Since Blake has come over to the Dodgers, 48 games, Blake has 10 home runs and 23 RBI’s. "When we got Casey Blake, it sort of became some glue we needed for this ball club to mesh," manager Joe Torre said. "Just the way he prepares and goes about his business. I know you've heard the expression, he's a blue-collar guy who just goes and plays baseball". The Dodgers have won its fourth straight at Pittsburgh and improved to 22-6 overall at PNC Park. Take the Dodgers -1½